什么 happened 至 the traditional home buyer? California has the highest percentage of 年轻人住在家里 with parents. Existing home sales collapse.
现有房屋销售继续处于低迷状态。现有的最新房屋销售数据显示，房屋销售量已恢复到2012年7月的水平。其中很大一部分是由于较高的利率， 投资者挤出常规买家, and prices outpacing stagnant incomes. It is surprising that 一些how people believe that prices can simply go up untethered 至 actual incomes especially in an environment that looks 至 有 higher future interest rates. When we look at futures data the 市场 is now pricing in a 100bps move in interest rates higher over the next year. The so-called traditional buyer has been a weak participant. The 投资者人群 已经显示出疲惫的迹象，这可能是一个问题，因为他们购买了市场上所有现有库存的大约30％。传统的买家被挖掘出来。掩盖停滞收入的抵押头只能走这么远。现有房屋销量的下降反映了投资者需求的变化，家庭预算紧张以及由于2007年大房地产危机后实施的银行政策而导致的库存不足。 ？
The latest existing sales figures show a very weak housing 市场. Existing sales registered their weakest month since July of 2012. When we look at sales since the 崩溃 we realize that the 市场 has transformed into a different kind of beast.
We had two euphoric housing trends since the 崩溃. The first was courtesy of low prices and the tax credit incentive. This pulled forward 需求 for a brief period. Then, we had the 低利率聚会和巨大的投资者狂潮 that pushed home sales 至 another short-term peak in the summer of 2013. So where do we go from here? It is rather clear that home prices at current levels with current rates are actually making it unaffordable for many first time home buyers 至 jump in. The bond 市场s are getting impatient with the Fed.
This makes sense given the manic like 市场 we are seeing across the state. In California, the 市场 right now is being dominated by tight inventory, 投资人, 翻转pers, and foreign 钱. In other words, the “traditional” buyer is really absent. You can see a similar pattern across the nation where states with higher priced housing tend 至 有 a higher percentage of 年轻人住在家里.
Another consequence of the Great Housing Crash is the size of McMansions. With smaller future households, why the 需要 for a giant home? You can see this in the size of 房屋 being purchased:
This dovetails with the lack of home building over the last few years. Why build if the 需求 has shifted? As we noted, younger households are less affluent and are struggling 至 buy a home even in a 市场 where interest rates are historically low.
许多人正在转变为 承租人民族心态。另外，在那些 7,000,000 房屋 in the foreclosure graveyard how many are itching 至 dive back in? Never 有 we had such a deep and profound crisis in housing still very fresh in the memories of the country. The mindless nonsense of “you can never go wrong with housing” was completely shattered in this 崩溃.
怎么样 long do people live in their home?
This is why in manic California where crapshacks of 1,000 square feet are selling for $700,000 you 有 至 wonder if people really believe they will stay put for 30 years? Deep down these people are actually planning for the property ladder game 思维 that in 10 years, their initial purchase will now be worth $1 million and then they can buy the 1,800 square foot $1.2 million home with the equity that was created. This is carried out as virtual dogma 至 一些.
The traditional buyer is largely out of the game in high priced states but this appears 至 be a nationwide trend as well. For states where 投资人 are missing and “all cash” buying is rare you 需要 your typical traditional buyer. The above statistics show a very weak 市场. In 一些 市场s, multi-year buying sprees of 投资人 有 made the “all cash” buyer the traditional buyer. The reason people are still looking deeply into housing is because 一些thing is amiss here.