什么 happened 至 the traditional home buyer? California has the highest percentage of 年轻人住在家里 with parents. Existing home sales collapse.

现有房屋销售继续处于低迷状态。现有的最新房屋销售数据显示,房屋销售量已恢复到2012年7月的水平。其中很大一部分是由于较高的利率, 投资者挤出常规买家, and prices outpacing stagnant incomes.  It is surprising that 一些how people believe that prices can simply go up untethered 至 actual incomes especially in an environment that looks 至 有 higher future interest rates.  When we look at futures data the 市场 is now pricing in a 100bps move in interest rates higher over the next year.  The so-called traditional buyer has been a weak participant.  The 投资者人群 已经显示出疲惫的迹象,这可能是一个问题,因为他们购买了市场上所有现有库存的大约30%。传统的买家被挖掘出来。掩盖停滞收入的抵押头只能走这么远。现有房屋销量的下降反映了投资者需求的变化,家庭预算紧张以及由于2007年大房地产危机后实施的银行政策而导致的库存不足。 ?

现有房屋销售直线下降

The latest existing sales figures show a very weak housing 市场.  Existing sales registered their weakest month since July of 2012.  When we look at sales since the 崩溃 we realize that the 市场 has transformed into a different kind of beast.

首先,让我们看一下现有的房屋销售:

成屋销售

We had two euphoric housing trends since the 崩溃.  The first was courtesy of low prices and the tax credit incentive.  This pulled forward 需求 for a brief period.  Then, we had the 低利率聚会和巨大的投资者狂潮 that pushed home sales 至 another short-term peak in the summer of 2013.  So where do we go from here?  It is rather clear that home prices at current levels with current rates are actually making it unaffordable for many first time home buyers 至 jump in.  The bond 市场s are getting impatient with the Fed.

年轻人住在家里

传统购房者在哪里?对于许多人来说,他们和父母一起住在家里。实际上,加利福尼亚有最多的年轻人居住在家里:

年轻人住在家里

This makes sense given the manic like 市场 we are seeing across the state. In California, the 市场 right now is being dominated by tight inventory, 投资人, 翻转pers, and foreign 钱.  In other words, the “traditional” buyer is really absent.  You can see a similar pattern across the nation where states with higher priced housing tend 至 有 a higher percentage of 年轻人住在家里.

较小的房屋

Another consequence of the Great Housing Crash is the size of McMansions.  With smaller future households, why the 需要 for a giant home?  You can see this in the size of 房屋 being purchased:

房屋面积

This dovetails with the lack of home building over the last few years.  Why build if the 需求 has shifted?  As we noted, younger households are less affluent and are struggling 至 buy a home even in a 市场 where interest rates are historically low.

许多人正在转变为 承租人民族心态。另外,在那些 7,000,000 房屋 in the foreclosure graveyard how many are itching 至 dive back in?  Never 有 we had such a deep and profound crisis in housing still very fresh in the memories of the country.  The mindless nonsense of “you can never go wrong with housing” was completely shattered in this 崩溃.

怎么样 long do people live in their home?

与人们生活在第一个家中而死的信念相反,购买者的平均逗留时间为13年。对于首次购房者而言,他们平均在首次购房中的平均停留时间为11.4年:

行动的时间

This is why in manic California where crapshacks of 1,000 square feet are selling for $700,000 you 有 至 wonder if people really believe they will stay put for 30 years?  Deep down these people are actually planning for the property ladder game 思维 that in 10 years, their initial purchase will now be worth $1 million and then they can buy the 1,800 square foot $1.2 million home with the equity that was created.  This is carried out as virtual dogma 至 一些.

The traditional buyer is largely out of the game in high priced states but this appears 至 be a nationwide trend as well.  For states where 投资人 are missing and “all cash” buying is rare you 需要 your typical traditional buyer.  The above statistics show a very weak 市场.  In 一些 市场s, multi-year buying sprees of 投资人 有 made the “all cash” buyer the traditional buyer.  The reason people are still looking deeply into housing is because 一些thing is amiss here.

你喜欢这个职位吗?订阅Housing Bubble博士的博客可获取最新的住房评论,分析和信息。 

 

 

你喜欢这个职位吗?订阅Housing Bubble医生的博客以获取最新的住房评论,分析和信息





132个回应 至 “传统购房者怎么了?加利福尼亚州与父母同住的年轻人中百分比最高。现有房屋销售崩溃。”

  • 立即购买,或者直到Bubble 2.0出现之前,将其定价!

    • 那么你’re saying….”立即购买,水下十年!”

      • 水下十年?也许更长…a LOT longer. Take a look at Japan. Prices/values back 至 early 1980s levels. 那’3年加上0的价格升值。如果您是从高峰期购买的,例如1988-1992年左右,则FAR更糟。

  • No question the traditional buyer is on the sidelines, they 有 钱 至 buy but think 25 至 40% drop will happen again???

    我可以毫不含糊地告诉你这一切永远不会发生。买卖双方需要头脑清白,以达成交易,但批发赠品可以’t happen because sellers 有 figured out eventually folks 需要 a home and why should they leave 钱 on the table, go rent or move in with relatives.

    I look at it the same way as a car deal, if we 有 a profit left you get a car, if we make no 钱 go walk and waste hours with another dealer, who pays the same price we do for the machine.

    • 这是此博客上最近最不合逻辑的帖子。价格可以,应该并且将下降至少10%。然后从那里变成利率的倒数。现在40%?也许不是但也不是脱离现实的境界,但是几率会更低。天灾,美联储爆炸等…

      但这还不算是汽车交易。甚至都不会浪费时间将那一个分开,真是愚蠢的比喻。

    • 小“r” – as usual, you are wrong. You 需要 至 study 一些thing that 没有人 likes 至 study, economic history. Every (with NO exception) boom has an equal and opposing bust. These micro transactions are just temporary background noise.

    • BAHAHA, this clown lil r 罗伯特 is hilarious! And he even compares selling 房屋 至 being a car salesman. 那’基本上所有房地产经纪人/ RE经纪人都是。

      你真的认为它可以’不会发生?!?相信我,会有一些人拼命地在低迷中竭尽所能,只是为了摆脱困境。能够’确实发生了,过去3-5年都是这样。在几乎每个黄金地段,2009年和2011年的价格均下降了25-40%,而在肮脏​​,贫民窟和巴里奥地区,折扣幅度更大。

      • 不合格的买家

        CraigLister,

        2010-2014年价格上涨与2003-2006年价格上涨之间的最大区别在于,人们对2003-2006年的收入撒谎。

        When your entire mortgage loan is based on a lie and you 有 nothing 至 lose…为什么不走开或一无所获呢!今天的巨大差异是,过去几年中70%+的贷款减少了10%-20%或全部现金。当然,美联储仍在发放3.5%的贷款。.但是,他们仍在检查收入,并且总体上比2003-2006年要严格得多。

      • 我的用户名去哪儿了?

        二手房推销员。

    • 你是绝对正确的。价格可以上涨25%,但可以’t go down 25%. 那 is one of the fundamental laws of economics. Prices can only go up!!!!!

      • 对,就那个’上一个泡沫中每个人的想法–价格只能涨!如果历史教给我们任何东西…因为它总是在重复,我们从不学习…所以是的,可以肯定的是价格只会上涨,继续下去,我希望它能为您带来成功!

      • 顺便说一句’s see if your logic withholds during the next stock 市场 崩溃 which is just around the corner if you 有 been paying any attention. Come April/May 2014 and we are going 至 see the biggest 崩溃 yet… Let’看房地产是25%还是-25%… Adios amigos, I’会在几周后回来,以便我们了解情况,并评估您的不合理谬误。

      • 经济学的基本定律!!!傻瓜…很想知道您参加了哪所经济学学校!太搞笑了…

    • Buyers may or may not 需要 至 actually buy. Sellers may or may not 需要 至 actually sell.

      您假设买方需要购买,但是卖方永远不会承受任何销售压力,这是错误的。虽然它’s certainly also not true that downward pressure on prices will necessary lead 至 sellers actually selling at lower prices. Some will certainly 有 the flex 至 wait it out and hope for another upturn in the 市场, and for those underwater even if they want 至 short sell, the bank may prevent it.

    • 它太笨拙了!

      罗伯特, there are 至 many unknowns out there, 没有人 can control the laws of supply and 需求, they however can easily manipulate them as we 有 all seen over the last few years in our local and national 市场s.

      You do 有 一些 good points and so does Longcat about the huge pent up 需求, just remember if people see anything close 至 a 20% drop in prices due 至 one thing or another (rates up, inventory swelling &投资者的抛售)恐慌开始了,每个人都开始同时进行抛售,即使是那些没有售卖意向的人乘坐售货车旅行,其心态为101。

      On the 翻转 side if rates head south into the 3% range again which they might…完全相反的事情将发生,然后手套大面积地掉下来,然后我们又再次进入竞购战,肆无忌map的定价过高和疯狂的购房狂潮。唯一可以解决的方法是,如果再次对市场进行人为操纵,那么这种情况还能持续多久?

      洛根·莫塔沙米(Logan Mohtashami)上周刚刚提到,这将是一个非常有趣的第二季度,该行已经在申请2014年的贷款申请,这将是一个非常缓慢的夏季购买季节。

      http://loganmohtashami.com/2014/03/20/existing-home-sales-look-soft/

    • 1-当心任何告诉你的人“unequivocally”将会发生什么
      2-苹果与黄瓜的比较

    • 搞笑!杜德,你有一个锁链,我有钱。我绝对不’无需购买您的crapshack!但是如果您死于头衔,就需要卖掉那个婴儿。您中的某些人需要退休金,一些人离婚并需要出售,有些人会生病并需要出售 …有些人会失业,需要出售。一直以来,我都不需要购买。您越早弄清余额的小费方式,您的财务状况就会越好。至于我和我的同类(有钱买的人),我们可以等你。投降可能不在您的脑海中,但是它’来了。我希望您意识到音乐可能比您想象的更快停止,并且您将追逐市场。同时,我有您可能想要和需要的东西,并且对支付最高费用没有兴趣。

      • I’m curious – by “wait you out”你的意思是说最终你‘would’ want 至 buy?

      • 那’当我们在股票市场上大量赚钱时,这首歌很可爱。我们必须记住,我们的资产比房屋具有更多的流动性。房屋是一种情感资产。所以,当我们敲打胸膛的时候’我们选择敏锐地投入金钱,我们应该敏锐地意识到,房屋价格不可能快速变化,但一闪而过的崩溃可能会在几个小时内消灭我们的头寸。

        马克为幻想创造的房屋也有一层。在水贩之下,不要’卖。他们取消抵押品赎回权,并取消抵押品赎回权’t in the 市场 for the price you want because banks 有 NO pressure 至 sell due 至 Mark 至 fantasy. Buyers that got good prices aren’t selling. In short, if 需求 at these prices sinks then my expectation is that supply will as well, at least in the thriving parts of the country. Prices went far below 租金平价. Now they are essentially at 租金平价.

        我从中看到的“smart crowd” is that they 有 found a way 至 rent/live with reduced cost. Sweet deals from friends or living with parents or in crowds. They are saving their 钱, and want 至 buy. Their analysis is skewed because of their very low housing costs. They think hey, I’m付700美元住,一个像样的房子将是2800美元’太疯狂了!但是,如果他们以2500美元的价格在Irvine租了一个烂的3/2,那将不会是一个震惊。在此同时,他们只是保存,我认为’一件好事,我们需要更多的储户。

      • “They think hey, I’m付700美元住,一个像样的房子将是2800美元’S CRAZY! ”

        真相以他们的收入$ 2800太疯狂了’s no “thinking”,但经济现实。

    • @Un合格的买家不,我’d不是造成隐藏崩溃的原因。那’s您在电视上听到的声音导致隐藏崩溃,但我保证您没有’t是由人们躺在他们的贷款上造成的。那不是什么原因或全球金融危机!这是银行向傻逼借款人提供的信息的出售,转售和转售,这是银行唯一重视的东西,即票据。它是四方体的派生词。那’也不夸张。银行在借款人关闭托管的第二天就拿走了其中的30%。它www骗局。这是一个骗局!美国历史上最大的抢劫案。唐’t blame the victims.

      • 对不起,智能手机不是’非常聪明,将我的话语改为我想说的话。希望你能解释我的评论。大声笑。

      • 该死的,林恩。如果我还记得,TARP或第一个刺激方案大于美国所有活跃抵押贷款的总额。自2001年以来的整个事件在光天化日之下盗窃了草药。我们’关于工程衰退的第14年,’唯一的目的是保持资产价格高企和工资低廉,以维护互联网将给死亡带来打击的全球力量结构。第二次世界大战阻止了大规模生产破坏阶级分化。一定要破坏过剩的生产,而不是提高农奴的生活水平。艾森豪威尔(Eisenhower)和肯尼迪(Kennedy)使我们走上了正确的道路,并且可能是我们最后的REAL(不是公司或银行家er)总统。

    • ” No question the traditional buyer is on the sidelines, they 有 钱 至 buy but think 25 至 40% drop will happen again??? I can unequivocal tell you all this is never is gong 至 happen.”(以上摘自博客帖子)
      ———————————————————————————————
      快速检查一下:
      (1) 唐’t forget the 1990’的房地产泡沫破灭非常非常严重。
      即使价格比上次售出的价格折价50%,物业仍很长时间没有售出。在圣盖博谷地的某些地区,每三所房屋都有一个“for Sale sign” on the lawn …。而且许多房屋都空置了几年。
      示例:我从银行购买了空置房屋…我给了他们2万美元的低价
      比问。银行损失了$ 200-K。 ( 真实的故事 )
      (2)2008-2009房地产国家内爆大得多…所不同的是,银行被迫延迟抵押。在1990年’银行刚刚将所有财产迅速抛弃—大量。
      (3) People must buy FOOD, must 有 clothes, must 有 temporary Shelter and they can stay with relatives and friends ….. BUT THEY DON’T HAVE TO “BUY”一个房子。购买房屋不是奢侈品,而是必需品。
      ========================

    • 错误的范式。人们不’t “need” houses. They 需要 a place 至 live or shelter. People often buy houses 至 increase space (a three bedroom home for a family of 3 instead of sharing a single 1 bedroom apartment, for instance) or kids moving out of the parent’s home.

      It’s similar 至 一些one “needing”一辆车。你可以坐公共汽车。它’不是奢侈品,但经济不景气意味着更少的人“need”即使人数保持不变(或增长)

      尽管或可能由于更严格的放贷规则,即将到来的下降仍然可能导致所有者和卖方的经济压力,他们认为他们可以在下一个大繁荣中进行融资(并且被过度杠杆化),或者购买了不’t “flip”或者只是需要移动。一世’随着业主放租他们长期居住的房屋并扩大租赁市场,m已经在DC都会区看到了后者。这降低了租金价格和住房需求,从而形成了反馈回路效应。

  • 他们确实应该建造1200至1500平方英尺的房屋,为什么他们只建造大型房屋?即使现在我也看到了新建筑’所有的大房子。你不’需要2000到3000平方英尺’s nice if you 有 a good job and earn it, but generally and on average it’s 至o much.

    As far as the kids go, I see it and agree. Even if you graduate 大学债务 free, you still 有 至 work and save up for a downpayment. Takes a long time in CA. I don’目前还不知道招聘和招聘的趋势如何,但是南湾大型公司招募大学新兵的日子已经不复存在。除了网络安全之外,谁’招聘?大多数工作要去航空航天业的McKinney TX,密西西比州和亨茨维尔。

    • In my 市场 we see a similar phenomenon with apartments. The only apartments being built are on the high end, even though most of the 需求 is for affordable housing.

      原因似乎是,所需的边距仅在高端才能实现,而对于SFH,这部分是由平方英尺驱动的。您’d认为会有足够的劳动力供应,愿意建造任何需求的产品,但CA的现实情况是土地价格太高,您需要大量现金才能参与其中。因此,竞争(某种程度上是人为地)受到了限制。

    • “They really should build 1200 至 1500 sq ft 房屋, why do they only build large ones?”

      价值主张下降。首先,每平方英尺的成本随着房屋的变小而增加(出于明显的原因),其次,土地成本基本保持不变,最后,影响费将基本相同。例如,在您甚至不考虑平方英尺的加州Fontana,每间房屋的影响费可能高达$ 50K-70K。所以…。您最终得到的收益要少得多。最终,您可能会得到一个1500平方英尺的房屋,价格为255,000美元,而2800平方英尺的房屋则为315,000美元。那将是成本。为$ 60,000多一点,您’重新获得更多的平方英尺。

      • Fair enough but the PITI on $315k is $350/mo more than the smaller loan. 那 may be 至o much for a lot of people.

      • 疯狂的每次转化费用

        因此,“white collar ghettos”在SoCal中,房屋占据了整个土地,房屋之间没有空间。您的平方英尺数超过2500,但是您也可以听到邻居们因为距离很近而争吵一栋房子。

      • 您对Cranky CPA的看法很正确。新的“homes” are two story boxes. They 有 no class, hence the “Cracker Box”看起来没有线条,就像生活在其中的胖子一样。

      • 确实,胡思乱想。毫无疑问,许多人最终将被转变成多户/多单元公寓,就像曾经有很多豪宅在市中心以西被改造一样。

  • Too many big kids living at home with parents? Sounds like a lot of pent up 需求.

    • 最容易被误解的术语“demand”. 什么 is 需求? It is funny how every Tom, Dick, and Harry use this term as if there is this magical economic truth called the 需求 curve. This is no different than saying there is a lot of weather on the sidelines… WETF that means…

      • Demand is best measured by spending. 如果你 spend, you 有 需求. Its everyday thing. You 有 至 live under a roof, regardless. 那’s为什么在屋顶下有价值。

      • 我的用户名去哪儿了?

        有时需求是难以克服的。以石油为例:在传统的石油消费预测中,您假设石油需求是GDP的函数,如果价格过高,欧佩克将增加产量,如果价格过低,欧佩克将减少产量,调节平衡。

        但是,如果您从一种供应受限的哲学中求出需求,并意识到表观需求(根据其是GDP的函数的假设来计算)小于固有需求,直到有足够的供应(或使用效率充分提高)为止为了让这两个彼此相等,石油的价格赢得了’不要下去。 [而且显然还有一个垄断价格,限制了价格可以走多高。]

      • 皮特– you are very close 至 what 需求 is. 如果你 call spending income + change in 债务, you are right on the 钱. Now we know that income is flat 至 falling and 债务 is maxed, so how do we get increased 需求 again?

      • Income is down due 至 globalization, technology advances and loss of jobs. 如果你 有 a stable job, you don’不能减薪。我们提高了最低工资,所有杂货的价格都在上涨。我们的出路是增加债务,提高生产率并提高通货膨胀。我们的领导人决心不放气。它’写在墙上,他们每个月都会告诉您。它’这样做已经超过5年了。你还是不’t see it?

      • 皮特– “Our way out is more 债务, more productivity growth and more 通货膨胀.“
        这就是问题。在某个时候,更多的债务实际上会减缓GDP增长(约占GDP的250%),我相信我们早在这一点上就通过了。生产力是一把双刃剑。首先,在没有技术飞跃的情况下,只有一个工作人员可以让您摆脱困境。其次,更高的生产率实际上给就业带来了下行压力,这给工资增长/通货膨胀带来了下行压力。最后,为了获得通货膨胀,您需要实现工资通货膨胀,这是全球化和劳动力市场日益疲软的情况所不会发生的。通胀也是一把双刃剑,因为预期的通胀是利率的一部分。随着通货膨胀率的提高,我们将获得更高的货币成本,这将导致增长放缓。债券市场最终将迫使货币成本包括未来预期的货币贬值。可以肯定的是,您可以在短期内尝试赚钱,并且看起来情况有所改善,但是吹笛者迟早希望得到报酬。历史证明,吹笛者总是得到报酬的……

      • Some people confuse 需求 with desire. You may 有 a million people with the desire 至 buy a million dollar home. If they don’t 有 the ability 至 pay and all are poor, that is not 需求 or pent-up 需求. Demand is desire + ability 至 pay.

    • “Too many big kids living at home with parents? Sounds like a lot of pent up 需求.”

      或缺乏或家庭组建,并转移至多代家庭。

    • WTF ???它’s because they 有 no jobs, no 钱, 和probably student 债务. 怎么样 out of 至uch are you?

    • I’ve had a lot of pent up 需求 for a Porsche all of my adult life. The way things are going, that ain’永远不会发生。

  • 弗朗切斯科·谢蒂诺(Francesco Schettino)

    You made a good argument for home prices going down. Forget the talk of staying up. When will we hit that iceberg and go down? I 需要 至 know so I can be the first in the lifeboat.

  • I bought in 2011 not expecting any appreciation for the first few years. I bought close 至 or just below 租金平价 in my neighborhood. So, i made out as long as I stayed in the home for 5 years and didn’对家庭进行过多不必要的升级。在购买的第3年结束时,我感到非常幸运。

    我认为在家里住10到15年是很安全的选择…即使是那些在2006年在高价地区购买的产品,到2021年也可能接近收支平衡。

    我几乎不认为’s “popular belief”你在第一家中生活和死亡。我住在3个成长中的房屋中…我的父母现在仍在第三家,而且还清。绝对不同的时间..我认为他们的第一所房屋就像$ 40K…第二个是7万美元。.第三个是15.5万美元。

    • Thank you for replacing Lord Blankfein. We 需要 至 hear 租金平价 a couple times a week because we might forget…

    • 什么?是对的,没有“rental 平价” in the mix, it’只是一个不完整的讨论。的谬误“parity” is so obvious yet lost on those that use it 至 make themselves feel better about buying. Ask all those who bought at the last peak in 2005-2006 about 租金平价 and see how that worked out for them. Rents aren’现在还不错,但是价格已经暴跌了。它’考虑到最近的泡沫,目前总体而言,这是一个更好的交易。谁知道它何时会弹出,但我不会拿着袋子被抓住!

      • 湾区租房者

        NOTHING was even close 至 租金平价 from 2004-2006… NOTHING! 什么 are you smoking? Every buyer in 2006 可以 rent for about 1/4 the cost of owning. Maybe not a house.. because they were being 翻转ped like pancakes…但是公寓租金是类似规模房屋的1/4。

      • 你们完全是瞎子什么时候’s all said and done this year, additional complexity aside, I will 有 spent 20k less than what I was spending on rent when I was 出租. I put 160k down. Yeah, that’s all after taxes 至o. I bought at a good time, how did I know it was a good time? I used a 租金平价 calculation.

        这个地方变成了Patrick.net

      • 如果你 put 160K down 至 get under 租金平价 within the last 2 years or so you’re in a bad way as soon as this 市场 turns SAK. You’re taking a bigger gamble than the stock 市场. Might as well 有 put half in an S&P基金。还有更多的液体,你’d 有 banked 一些 nice capital gains.

      • 如果我只放3.5%的价格,我买时的价格低于租金平价。您非常忙于证明自己的观点,以致于通过随机断言/假设来证明这一点。您可以’不读,你做错了假设,错过了最后的沉浸。为什么有人甚至回应您?这是值得回答的问题。一世’ve made 7-13 percent tax free since I bought based on rent that I 有n’t paid. The houses around mine appreciated are selling for 35% more than what I bought for, and you 有 the audacity 至 tell me that I made a bad choice? Really? Really? You know nothing.

      • 节省了7-13%的SAK租金’接近你’d 有 made on an S&P基金。如果价格上涨了35%但租金却没有’t, you’在谈论不赚钱的’如果你不做就没有意义’t cash out. 怎么样 much did 160k get you below 租金平价? Factt is you 可以 有 turned that into a nice capital gains without chaining yourself 至 a mortgage. 怎么样ever let’是真实的。你对批评和反对不屑一顾’t even mention your “高达35%的位置,同时吹捧着您的投资敏锐度,告诉我您是RE shill’使自己对自己感觉更好。可能是失业的经纪人?经纪人解雇了你?

      • 出租鹦鹉,出租鹦鹉,rak rak…。波利要租!它’出租鹦鹉!出租鹦鹉!出租鹦鹉!

      • 我又错了’m a scientist. 我又错了’米受雇。再次错误,那是我的预付款的7-13%。错,错,错。你不’t get much right when you 有 至 think for yourself do you?

      • “I’ve made 7-13 percent tax free since I bought based on rent that I 有n’t paid.”

        那 doesn’努力使您的羽绒获得7-13%的回报。两件事很明显你’re not a scientist because you suck at math. Still 有n’告诉我们您购买了35%的绝佳社区-

        “你输了!早上好先生!” – Willy Wonka

      • Also SAK you still 将 有 made more in an S&P index fund even with 租金平价. So once again, not showing yourself 至 be much of a scientist…

      • 我的数学?好。让’s说我以40万美元的价格买下,而房子最多只有50万美元,仅为25%。房贷是$ 1700。房子太大。从书中播放剧本(您没有’我有一个室友将我的费用降低到1000。少一间卧室的可比租金是2400。然后让’s say I’每年节省了1.6万租金。一世’我赚了13.2万,卖了我3万。所以我’我们在投资16万后税后赚了10万。小号&我买那天P是1370。现在是1885年。您必须为此收益缴税。你输了输了。您无法做简单的数学就是为什么您不这样做’做出正确的选择。我什至没有考虑股本’从拥有中获得收益或税收收益。如果我现在清算,我将销毁S&P大于2的倍数,因为数字I’给你保守。那’之所以如此,是因为当您在正确的时间进行购买时,即使是少量的杠杆,您也会获得巨大的优势。你的愤怒使你看不清真相,而你的大脑可以’不能理解’不想看。谈论确认偏差。

  • 永远不要敲免费的租金!加利福尼亚州现在是拉丁美洲人和亚洲人中的大多数!我们不’t move out until we absolutely 有 至o. Other cultures are the same way, it’s not the economy it’在我们的文化背景中!!!

    • 谢谢路易斯,指出有’任何无用的饼干。还有“Hispanic” and “Asian”可能和他们一样’搬出去直到他们“have 至o.”

    • It is immigrants from traditional cultures. The women 有 至 stay at home until they get married. If they move out before they get married, they are thought of as a “bad woman”(不是处女),所以父母很沮丧,因为他们认为没有人会嫁给他们。由于这个古老的乡村对于男人的处女观念,女人们学会了与父母和祖父母一起说谎和玩各种游戏。我可以继续下去,但是你明白了。

      • “The women 有 至 stay at home until they get married. If they move out before they get married, they are thought of as a “bad woman”(not a virgin) so the parents are upset ”

        嗯… waiting for the Southern Calfornia housing 市场 至 implode due 至 an explosion of virgins…所有那些南加州处女都住在家里。嗯….

  • 大家好,很长时间在这里出售瓦伦西亚房屋9年来,自此以来一直出租,我们正在搬到德克萨斯州。将我们的2个孩子送到贝勒那里上大学&TCU(峰值市场售价使付款变得容易)。我们曾住在Hope Ranch,Santa Barbara和Pine Mountain Club的泳池房中,使SB的租金低至每月800美元/月,PMC则低至1500美元/月。那和股票市场使我们的净资产达到历史最高水平。我妻子和我俩都在家工作,因此我们将继续这样做。加利福尼亚当地人,时55岁’该走了。孩子们在得克萨斯州和妻子有全职高薪工作’家庭的一面是从那里来的。我们那边已经有一些农田了。在乔治敦(Georgetown)租一间小房子一年,并希望在此期间在农村地区购买一间小房子。加利福尼亚很棒,德克萨斯州将是我们的又一次冒险。留意我: //www.youtube.com/user/canamrider07

    • 听起来像是一个了不起的计划。很高兴读到,那里仍然有明智和负责任的人。它’加利福尼亚感到羞耻’经济会像你一样赶走中产阶级。

    • 骰子‘Em Bears!

    • 是的,您会像佩里小时候那样成为一名泥土农民吗?我在Kinky附近有一个牧场’的地方,(用有机牛肉饲养草),但它不比国王牧场大。对于从如此众多的SoCal迁移而言,您正在做正确的事情。我听说松树山俱乐部是一个不错的地方,但是冬天从小山谷出来的那条路(向东通往卡迪山谷)在冬天可能很难结冰,因为它陡峭。得克萨斯州的大部分地区都是平坦的,您可以通过时间和太阳的位置而不是山脉的位置来告诉方向。需要一段时间才能使用它。在加利福尼亚,您永远不会远离山脉。通常,洋基需要数年才能适应热和湿度。现在唐’一旦到达这里,您会想念抱怨中所有您想念的事情“Golden State”.

      • 是的,PMC是一个美丽的地方,道路有些结冰,但今年却不行。这里的可再生能源确实是空无一人,空置的房屋,到处都是至少3.5年的土地。能够’t wait 至 move 至 Texas. In laws 有 land over by Richland Chambers Lake (Kerens). Like I said California was great but 行动的时间 on. 骰子Em bears….vs威斯康星州今晚……….

      • 嘿desmo,

        怎么样’松山俱乐部的水供应?我读到,森林湖的一个小镇缺水严重,以至于所有的井都干dry了,’现在要重新运输水,并担心水龙头到夏天可能会变干。可能是你’关于为TX保释正确….

    • 我的同情– you sure won’在德克萨斯州找不到希望牧场

  • 回到DHB的症结’的文章,传统买家发生了什么?传统买家将F定价,’s what. I happen 至 be a broker (not my only income source) that does not side with the herd and actually gives honest advice. Many 房地产经纪人 ARE real turds but there are 一些 (admittedly few) that truly 有 their clients’最好的利益。我适合后者,所以不要’t start with the ad hominem attacks. I rarely comment and 有 been reading this blog since LB was more on the bearish side.

    现在获取一些个人轶事证据。一世’m a Gen X’嗯在03年买入,在05年底以高价出售,并租用至08年。在1月08日购买(太早了!),并在09年底亏本出售(在定金和装修后),因为该地区不在哪里我最终想成为。从12月09日底租用,然后在9/2012年再次购买。我真的很幸运,甚至得到了我买的房子,因为大部分优惠都交给了内部人员。我直接去了上市代理,让那个笨蛋双双落在我身上。她甚至没有给我看过家。从未见过她。很好的受托责任。在扣除费用/改进措施后(即使受到了税收的打击),在5/2013卖出了巨额利润,因为我认为我们’我又一次越过了山顶,尽管我对该地区感到满意,但邻居们却感到沮丧。买家可能没有考虑的最大X因素之一就是邻居。

    Now happily 出租 again with a nice chunk of change in the bank and watching the areas I like, hoping for a real drubbing of values like NZ and many others. I only wish prices 将 tank like they should 有 been allowed 至 in the first place. Instead, we are still in a completely fake “market”由大银行和内部人士操纵。乔六块腹肌再次被抽水。

    The 现金买家 are still there but definitely not in the same manner as they were before. I only know this because I represent multiple sellers and they still hit me up as soon as I post a new listing. Not running into any buy 至 rent types because the numbers no longer pencil out in the 市场s I am in. The remaining few are 翻转pers looking 至 unload the hot potato.

    The $ on the sidelines thing is a load of crap. My generation and the latter is str8 brizzoke. There are 一些 like myself that 有 a little 钱 but we know there will not be any social safety net for us in the future so we’re not ready 至 go plop down $250K and still 有 a mortgage payment that is 20% higher than rent on an equivalent home. Single job career and a pension? Please. Not unless you work for .gov

    这是假的恢复。一切都被操纵了。根据BLS的统计数据,CPI不包括食品和能源,劳动力参与率一直处于历史最低水平时的股市上涨等。按您的说法,这个数字正在被按摩。我真的希望街上再有血迹,这样我才能用双脚跳入。地狱,我’这次我要买2或3。现在,我只希望我们能有所收获。我想认为即使有触发也会导致它。 d

    我们达到或超过了价格峰值,再次感到危险接近07。不幸的是,我们完全有可能最终陷入日本局势,而价格保持平稳。唐’t低估了.gov将费率保持在零或接近零的能力。每个人都喜欢这样说话’已经完成了,但谁真的知道老耶伦’如果再次拉动SHTF的话?

    • Like the Dr has pointed out, the current environment has forced all who are interested in SoCal housing 至 be speculators. You give a balanced appraisal of the slings and arrows of speculating over the past 10 years or so. 什么ever happens, you seem in good shape.

    • 很棒的帖子,CAB。

      我是GenXer,从未购买过。当我(终于)开始(生命)泡沫时,我终于可以正确地生活。我之所以坐下来,是因为我可以说那不是’没错。我记得我的父母在80年代的泡沫中购买股票,因此我知道价格实际上可能会下跌。我期望他们这样做,我想在市场崩溃后,当市场恢复理性时,我会购买。

      But history taught me the wrong lesson, because prices never really did go down like they should 有. Sure there was a “crash” in 2008, but things never really returned 至 正常. Had I known the FED 将 keep ZIRP going forever, prop up a fake recovery like you mentioned, and that prices 将 never return 至 a traditional ratio with incomes, I 将 有 just bought a decade ago.

      我认为我们早该进行重置了,但是老实说我不知道’相信会发生。它’日本。在干预的支撑下,价格将保持不自然的高位。我错过了船,我’我可能永远不会拥有自己的房子。它’要么购买和支付太多,要么不要’永远买和租。这些是仅有的两个选择。随它吧。

      • “我认为我们早该进行重置了,但是老实说我不知道’t believe it will happen. It’s Japan. ”

        Bub在日本的价格比高峰期下降了很多。如果是日本,那么您将看到未来3年内价格继续下降。

      • 在CA的成长告诉我们,生意兴隆是交易的一部分。您’没错,与早期的萧条相比,2008年是从头开始。

      • 嘿,巴布

        唐’t feel like you’我错过了船。认为它的时间表有些不可预测。另一艘船很快就会来。如果它’的意思是,您将拥有一个房屋。如果您最终不买东西,请记住,房子实际上只是头顶的屋顶。只要您能拥有自己和正在租用的房屋,就能安全地保持自己和家人的安全,就不会’t matter much.

        Really what it comes down 至 is security. 那’钱是用来干什么的。如果您感到安全的租金,而安全又给您带来快乐,那就是不买的理由。租房有很多好处,我敢肯定,您知道这些。

        那 being said, if you feel you must make a purchase, try out the buy v. rent calculator on msn. 那 one actually lets you adjust every input (including appreciation-you can even input a negative number haha). Once you calculate all the costs it may make sense for you 至 keep 出租 for X more years. I won’除非我确定这是有道理的,并且对购买感到安全,否则请不要再尝试。祝你好运,并感谢您的好话!

    • 出租车,

      这可能是该网站上最合理的文章。

      i’d like 至 comment on your posit re yellen: it seems very likely that, at 一些 point, yellen and her fed ilk wont 有 any say in the matter and the bond 市场 will take their ammunition away. already the 10-yr has gone from 1.5% or so last May 至 2.8%; im very sure she and the fed are not happy about this. it’这是一场与量化宽松和10年期(以及我猜想的大多数其他国库券)竞争的鸡,最终,它们将输掉,债券市场将夺走印刷机。

      完全公开:我的大部分观点都受到Bill Fleckenstein对此主题的影响。他’关于这一切,我们有很多有趣的事情要说。

  • 《华盛顿邮报》最近强调了年轻人在住房方面的重要作用。不仅这个年龄段的人减少了;队列只是没有进入房屋。约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)的人口统计学家克里斯·波特(Chris Porter)告诉报纸,2012年年龄在30岁至34岁之间的美国人“拥有近几十年来所有类似年龄组的最低房屋拥有率,为48%”。婴儿潮时代的那个年龄段的拥有率为57%。

    • 我们的年轻人可能会更多“into houses”如果他们也能赢得工作以节省首付并支持房屋,’因此,学生贷款债务负担沉重。他们’仅仅为了试图踏上经济阶梯并处理他们的债务而想到的只是眼下的经济生存而已。我可以’对于刚刚起步的人们来说,过去80年的时间要比当今时代更糟。

    • 好吧,我适合该人群,’t own, even though I 有 the 钱. I’m married with a kid on the way. I 有 my eyes set on a specific school district, but 有 6+ years until I 有 至 think about that. So I’m just eyeing the 市场 and waiting for a good deal. So, I am pent up 需求…如果有很多的话,我会’ve bought already.

  • 在2014年向“坚硬的坦克”作战!!!!

    • Tank Hard先生,您在三月份说过SHTF,对吗?现在是4月新的崩溃日期吗?

    • 住房在2014年保持平稳!

    • 这只是轶事,但在我监控的3个城镇区域(格伦多拉,圣迪马斯和拉凡尔纳),过去两个星期内,上市市场上的房地产似乎增长了28%(对于SFH $ 500,000美元)与3月初的列表数量相比。在过去的几个月中,口头禅似乎是“销售下降但库存紧张”。我对自己所在地区的库存的了解反映了这种想法。但是,至少在我地区,卖家可能开始采用吉姆’口号。或者,可能只是人们想在春季搬家。在其他So Cal地区,是否有人看到库存开始出现类似转变的开始?

      • 我的公司在Glendora,所以我也检查了这个区域(尽管最终我还是’我想在奥兰治县(Orange County)购买,这就像是SGV的这个小高加索飞地,到处都是试图维持演出的人。那些意识到Bubble 2.0突然出现的人正在列出并寻找更大的傻瓜。他们可能会找到一些,但在这些价格下投资者的需求无处可寻,我认为他们’重新陷入僵局。从今年年初开始的止赎文件可能会在明年年初开始投放市场,而那些“have”出售将受到现实的打击。没有一百万的购买者,而且抵押贷款利率将达到5.5%或更高并呈上升趋势。

        当我’ve said before 吉姆 has it right in that the tanking is here. Closing prices are the LAST indicator 至 catch up 至 the 市场.

      • 你怎么看-

        you are in my neck of the woods. correct that inventory is slightly ticking up but this is mostly cyclical. what is not cyclical for this time of year are the price drops associated with the uptick, and in my/our area those are starting 至 pop up more and more. i like 至 think they are cracks in the foundation that are the start of a correction of 一些 sort. in addition 至 the price drops the ratio of closed 至 list prices is starting 至 decrease meaning you 有 less transactions closing at or over list price, and more transactions closing under list price. time 至 市场 has been steadily increasing as well, though only slightly.

      • 格伦多拉要当心,
        It has a high chance of winning the gentrification lottery. It is one of the few places I 将 buy 一些thing even at these prices.

      • Not in the 市场s I watch. Under 500k in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties seems 至 有 cratered. Initially it seemed like inventory was up, but try looking at Santa Barbara City, Ventura, even Santa 保罗a. Anything under 500k for a stand alone house has disappeared. Normally there aren’t that many, but where I used 至 see five in SB, now I see 1. Used 至 see 10-15 in the areas of Santa 保罗a I watch, now I see 3. I do see lots of horrendously overprices 公寓 with $300-$400 HOA fees (you 有 至 be kidding me).

        现实情况是,大多数人要么收入丰厚而留下来,要么仍在水下并且知道自己可以’不能得到他们所支付的东西,并获得新的东西。那里’现在在这些地区甚至有很多租金。

        Y世代想要购买。我们太破产了,价格太高了。

      • RE:AK
        Glendora赢得高档化彩票???哪里?南格伦多拉(South Glendora)即将完工,北格伦多拉(North Glendora)全部为住宅。 Glendora的跌幅可能不及2008年的崩盘,原因仅在于它’一个白色的飞行目的地。帕拉军事级的警察部队和优秀的学校使上层阶级的白人感到高兴-那就是说,当这种系统性的信贷泡沫逐渐消失时,甚至会稍微打击上层中产阶级的工作。我在Glendora的所有企业老板都感到担忧。他们’我从未见过要花这么长时间才能从车祸中反弹。当然,他们同意WI的第四个关键,即美联储从未竭尽全力来支持可再生能源,这正在扼杀消费者的支出。正如某人在90年代早些时候发布的文章,泡沫破灭使价格迅速下跌,并且随着货币速度的迅速回落,衰退很快就结束了。如果挽救银行免于国有化,美联储仅冻结整个经济。真的很恶心…

  • 如果耶伦没有’t end tapering this Fall and 有 an interest rate increase next Fall we are in for a wild ride. The dollar will take the hit hard and the Fed 将 get stuck buying treasuries at a fever pitch. Inflation 将 increase and the Fed 将 有 至 raise rates 至 kill it. Lets hope it doesn’t come 至 that.

    我们为什么要阅读住房博客?阿仁’我们本来应该妖魔化普京并指责他的经济?上次是欧洲,然后是天气。在他以美元以外的货币购买天然气/石油之后,也许怪罪游戏会完全发挥作用。

    怎么样 was the SoCal 市场 in the 70s?

  • 快去圣地亚哥吧!

    首先–爱这个板子!第二,我不’真的是我在说我的意思–其实很喜欢SD,但我讨厌价格。妻子和孩子们在我们的3/2 PQ住宅中感到很高兴,尽管这有点偏小。但是然后我们又去做preggo。因此,在寻找更多空间的过程中,我们很快发现,对少数几个价格合理的Scripps Ranch房屋的或有报价不会’不走远。因此,我们以高于补偿价15,000的价格列出了我们的产品,而吸盘在3天之内以高于要价10,000的价格挂起!我很喜欢’ve been reading –价格合理的清洁,升级良好的房屋会迅速出售,而价格过高的房屋(目前约占标清市场的80%)正在坐拥。对我来说显而易见的困境– I’我已经准备好了一大堆零钱,准备投入下一个‘move-up’财产,再加上越来越不耐烦和怀孕的妻子,每天都在问我为什么我’m推租路一年。我们喜欢一个属性,但是它’根据最近的补偿,价格至少高估了4万。逻辑(&诸如此类的内容告诉我要有耐心,而冲动的ADHD一边尖叫着只是咬住子弹并吸收打击。我们俩的薪水都相当不错,所以我粗略估计,如果我们要租一年的话,税收影响约为6-9k美元。我的问题是,我是否期望Scripps等理想区域的价格在一年内下跌足够?’现在该收回税收打击了?似乎当偶尔出现的非狂热卖家突然出现时,附近有许多旁观者在等待罢工。非常感谢您的想法!

    • F SD-
      我穿上你的鞋子要租一点(等一下…其实我在你的鞋子里’s what I’我在做)。说起来容易做起来难,但是请尝试查找一个月至一个月或最多六个月的租约,以便在发现所需租约时可以突袭。希望你不要’t 有 dogs…

      Tell the wife not 至 be overly picky about the rental as it will just be short term. 唐’强迫自己购买;错误的决定通常是仓促的和/或冲动的。 $ 6-9K是一笔小数目,相比之下,高额首付款的比例却很大。祝您搜索顺利。

    • Why are you estimating a $6-9K hit on taxes, presumably from the sale of your home? You get a $250K exclusion on profit from the sale of your home for each of you, meaning as a married couple you get the first $500K of profit on the sale of your primary residence i.e. your home excluded from any capital gains tax. 那 of course also requires the caveat of having lived in the home for 2 of the past 5 years, but it prorates the amount excluded if you 有 lived there less than 2 years.

      • 很确定他’s referring 至 lack of mortgage interest deductions on his tax returns for next year, not capital gains. Deductible mortgage interest on a SFH in PQ 可以 be in that range for a 2 income family.

      • 快去圣地亚哥吧!

        那’没错,我确实在不扣除抵押贷款利息的情况下冒着潜在的税收风险。但是我们今天实际上会见了我们的会计师&碰巧的是,我们不应将这一特定年份的预计税收情况’像我想象的那样痛苦(也许2-4k)。 2015年会更糟,但我们希望届时有更好的购买条件。另一个额外的好处是,一年的租金使我们有时间评估其他选择(例如,如果该州甚至搬出去)。

      • 我还是不’无法理解为什么人们与租金相比在利息税减免上如此重视。几乎在每种情况下’我们已经看到,房屋的财产税吃掉了利息减免…有时更多,有时更少。租你别’一定要承受房产税的打击(当然,租金中会内置一定的税率,但当然不会接近100%)。

  • “This is why in manic California where crapshacks of 1,000 square feet are selling for $700,000 you 有 至 wonder if people really believe they will stay put for 30 years?”

    呵呵…he said crapshacks.

  • “Tank Hard先生,您在三月份说过SHTF,对吗?现在是4月新的崩溃日期吗”?

    什么 is going 至 make the 市场 tank hard? Last time around it was an unprecedented 5 years worth of “Stated Income” loans, at 100% ltv, that had the disastrous effect on the economy and the RE 市场s.

    There has been nothing like that going on over the last 5 years. Sure, the Fed and the Government 有 greatly expanded their deficits, but as long as the US dollar is #1, they can get away with deficits and printing 钱/buying their own treasuries.

    While the points made on 年轻人 not being able 至 afford a home in coastal CA (within 25 miles of the ocean) are valid for a variety of reasons. I do not think that has any impact on values. All it means is sellers will realize there are less buyers and likely not sell as often as has been historically the case. 那 is why inventory is so low 至day. Your average seller sees what is going on in the over all economy and in many cases are scaling back, just fixing their present place up and sitting pat.

    Unless the entire economy falls off a cliff, I do not see a 20% reduction in values in coastal CA. If the economy does tank that hard, few of you will 有 the courage 至 step in and buy when the future looks so bleak.

    My 2 cents 至 the younger people. Look for better opportunities outside of CA. 如果你 有 the good fortune 至 do really well, you can always return down the road. In my beach 至wn, a large part of the RE sales are 至 people from AZ that plan 至 retire here down the road.

    • “What is going 至 make the 市场 tank hard? Last time around it was an unprecedented 5 years worth of “Stated Income” loans, at 100% ltv, that had the disastrous effect on the economy and the RE 市场s.”

      那’就像胖子声称食物使他发胖。规定的收入贷款只是过度金融化的纸牌屋的一部分。较大的不可持续系统内部的症状和原因。

    • 吉姆’2美分的价值约为负100万美元。他’d 有 至 pay me that 至 follow his advice. So coastal CA can’t fall 20%? Even though it did this in the 2008 崩溃… and the 1991 崩溃… 和in the 1982 崩溃…

      如果你’至少要尝试或拖弄或手淫到您的确认偏见文章,才能达到客观的目的。 3段及默认吉姆外’s thesis “could” happen in “some”我读过的所有地方都是NAR碎片。

    • 如果卖家坚持拍拍并装修自己的位置,他也不会’t become a buyer. This is a problem with most of the housing bulls, they try 至 violate the laws of thermodynamics by creating 需求 out of thin air.

      预计交易量会很低,因为接近水底的业主和低利率抵押贷款的持有人会被困在自己的房子里,并且可以’逃脱。如果有的话,低交易量使住房更容易发生疯狂变化。

      As a best case scenario, CA is adding about 250,000 a year in population. This equals the 需要 for about 150,000 new 房屋 assuming historic household formation and the 需要 至 replace more units.

      什么’s scarier, California measurably, has a decreasing tax base, meaning whoever is moving in is unlikely 至 be in a position 至 buy except for a minority of foreign nationals with big cash reserves. 什么 is not accounted for is also people who are moving into rental units, living with roommates and going multi-generational in their household. The supply-demand equation isn’不如人们想像的那样多。

      500 years of data 有 strongly correlated house prices with income and when they 有 diverged, they 有 reunited after not-too-long-a-period. I am not sure why people keep 思维 it’这次将有所不同。

  • 目前的市场距离“normal” that you 有 至 wonder when it will run out of gas? 33% of all people in CA under the age of 34 are still living with their parents!! 那’是一个了不起的数字。所有房屋购买中有30%是现金?现在呢’s an investor 市场 as I 有 heard many say they were looking 至 park a large amount of cash 一些where besides a bank or the stock 市场. This is not organic nor sustainable.

  • 埃里克·肯加德

    It’s the land, not the house, that makes housing so expensive. 和land is expensive because the population is so large. 和population is so large because of 过度移民.

    • 如果不是’t for immigration we’d这个国家的人口增长率为负数,通货紧缩的是死亡螺旋式的,而不是通货膨胀的僵尸’re now in.

      And, as far as the cost of flat expanses of dirt is concerned, you might find 一些 delta’比较29 Palms和Manhattan Beach时的s。

      • 人口负增长的原因很多。阅读入门21世纪议程。随着人口负增长,价格将下降,污染和税收也将下降。我们将在学校(老师,工厂和设备)和大学上花费更少的纳税人资金。一切都会很好。大自然母亲说,我们要么减少我们的人口,要么她会为我们做这件事,而且这不会很漂亮。

    • 洛杉矶时报这样告诉我...

      …And the “过度移民” of dirt poor 西班牙裔s 有 increased existing LA/ OC neighborhoods into 一些 of the most undesirable, dilapidated, over-crowded per sqft properties in the U.S. (e.g East LA & Costa Mesa) 和“过度移民”现金充裕的亚洲人正在创造对更高价格的需求“upper-middle class”CA杰出学校/蓝丝带学区的社区” (e.g. Irvine)

      • 正如《泰晤士报》所描述的,这两个事件都将白人赶走了。他们去了德克萨斯州和亚利桑那州。他们把国家交给了“Shrimp Boy”北部是三合会,南部是卡尔德隆。加州在很多方面都是一党制国家,就像第三世界国家一样。

  • 吉姆-

    您是否拥有十年前购买的沿海物业?我敢猜测是的。为什么您仅提及沿海CA无法负担“young people”?基于收入,不仅沿海地区变得无法承受。查看IE,SGV和其他不在海洋25英里以内的区域发生了什么。在12个洛杉矶县地区,我们的价格比07年的泡沫价格高30%,而通过多种渠道测算的承受能力水平始终处于历史低点。库存下降是因为人为地操纵库存以保持价格上涨。如果比率增加,这只狗和小马的表演能持续多久?价格下跌已经在发生,因为卖家意识到自己虚高的定价不会发生。买家开始质疑涨幅。

    那 being said 吉姆 Taylor’的评论可能只会在某些地区发生。其他更理想的区域(读于纽波特(Irvine)的纽波特(Newport))可能只会略有下降或保持平坦。正如该博客上大多数人所知,RE是高度本地化的。沿海地区只是CA RE的一小部分。

    您可以保留2美分。“在CA以外寻找更好的机会” is a nice way 至 tell the younger generation 至 打败它 because they were not fortunate enough 至 be born at a time where property here was affordable relative 至 income. Easier said than done when you 有 根源 here.

    • 出租车>> “在CA以外寻找更好的机会” is a nice way 至 tell the younger generation 至 打败它 because they were not fortunate enough 至 be born at a time where property here was affordable relative 至 income. Easier said than done when you 有 根源 here. <<

      什么ever happened 至 America'先锋精神"rugged individualism"?

      Young people 有 been "beating it" 至 these shores for centuries. America was built by 年轻人 who "beat it"来自欧洲和亚洲,在没有电话或互联网的时候,离开您的家"roots"在爱尔兰,意大利或中国意味着您'd可能再也看不到亲戚了,再也听不到他们的声音,只是偶尔来信。"

      我的父母"beat it"从1950年代的铁幕后面。一世"beat it"在1980年代来自纽约市,这是一件容易得多的事情。

      It's 正常 for 年轻人 至 move for greener pastures, and easier than ever in this age of modern communications and rapid transit. Easier 至 leave, easier 至 stay in 至uch with friends back home, easier 至 return for visits.

      千禧一代真的比上一代软得多吗?美国人是否已从先驱者转变为盆栽植物?

      • SOL-
        I don’t see the relation of your comment 至 property values but I 将 like 至 respond nonetheless. America is far removed from its “pioneer spirit.” Wake up and take a look around at what American society has become. America is not in the midst of an industrial revolution and plentiful 就业, unless you are drinking the BLS job creation data kool aid. Regardless of generation, as a whole America has become soft. Many old ideals such as saving and investing in your own future 有 been replaced by finance 至 get what you want now. Wants are mistakenly thought of as 需要s.

        在Facebook或其他电子媒体上显示您的个人主义已取代了坚固的个人主义。我们是一个消费社会,一切都基于信用和法定货币。您提到的崎America的美国已被腐败的公司治理所取代。庞氏金融业处于最佳状态。与美国过去生产的产品相比,我们生产的实际价值很少。看看FIRE部门的规模有多大,以进行简单证明。

        我的父母像您和其他许多人一样,是从另一个国家移民的。盆栽植物与此无关。无论电子媒体或“快速公交”如何,千里之外都无法照顾到家人。您能通过电子媒体照顾生病的父母吗?不这么认为。哦,每两天回头一次,因为您在该国另一地区的出色​​工作称还可以,并且您的现金足以应付常规航班吗?疑。

        我爱你的理想主义,但事实是美国人与那时不一样。如果您选择将其命名为“ soft”,但不要将手指指向任何特定的一代;如果有任何人要责备,那么这种责备应在各代人之间平等对待。如果18世纪和19世纪的崎individuals个人和先驱者知道我们的宪法已被颠覆的深度,他们就会在坟墓中翻滚。

        Do you think those same rugged individualists 将 有 allowed the unjust taxation of the ACA or the 美国联邦储备 act or the civil rights trampling patriot act or any of the other plethora of unconstitutional garbage that has been shoved down the throats of ALL Americans, not just “millennials”? I highly doubt it, but you can’t blame the millennials alone for being soft. BTW I am not a millennial.

      • 是的,很伤心。今天’的青年很烂。您,SOL,代表着最后一位真正的崎icon不平的标志性美国人物。哇。纽约到洛杉矶。没有互联网甚至没有手机。令人印象深刻。等一下,你说的80’s…某些甜蜜的纽约打击可能使第4天的驾驶减少了单调。

  • Sorry above post 可以 be misconstrued, should 有 said: In 12 cities in LA county we are as high as 30% OVER the 07 bubble price.

  • 失落的十年仍然如火如荼。我不’预计到2018年任何实际经济复苏。

  • Follow that 翻转 –降价版!

    Our favorite Victorian charmer is still on the 市场, currently with a $118K haircut after five months sitting on the 市场. A 17% discount from original ask.

    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/2125-Vallejo-St-90031/home/6945511

    • Properties sitting on the 市场 with price reductions are increasing. There is a filter on Trulia you can 至ggle 至 view.

      As of 至day, the number of 房屋 for sale in OC is up 33% vs last year, while the number sold is down 15%.

      The number of 房屋 for sale in LA county is up 10%, with the number sold down 17% YOY.

      滴答滴答…

    • 那 home looks nice now by itself, but its just a terrible location. Too close 至 the freeway, poorly rated public schools. Looks like street parking is required, so you’d 有 至 worry about car break-ins, as well as other crime.

      买得起$ 500K的人就是芳烃’t going 至 want 至 live there. For $580K there are a 至n of better options out there, with much better public school systems. The 翻转per should 有 done a better analysis before he sunk that much cash into that house. Just doing minimum work 至 make the home liveable again 将 有 probably netted a higher profit.

  • 卖房搬到了一个很棒的学校系统。我有史以来最好的举动。学校系统在不费吹灰之力的情况下保持房屋价值。这是现在疯狂的房价唯一重要的事情。从未了解过如何为低劣学校系统中的某些房屋定价的事实。

  • Berkeley for 1.0 MM. Are you kidding?! Talk about jumping the shark, this 市场 has definitely peaked…4K很多,没落,没有一条安静的街道,被藻类所吸引…I 将n’甚至租这个地方2K

    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Berkeley/1594-Scenic-Ave-94708/home/12352212

    • 什么 a sad little house. You can tell the current owners are financially stretched just by looking at the sad furnishings. These people probably 有 an income well into six figures, yet they are living one VERY lower-middle-class lifestyle.

      实际上,在芝加哥,我认识的每个中低收入人士的生活风格和风度要高得多,他们所花的钱只有五分之一。

      什么’年收入20万美元或更多的用途,如果您’re going 至 be financially overwhelmed maintaining a lifestyle that you 可以 easily buy with 钱 至 spare on $60,000 a year in another part of the country?

  • Flippety 翻转 至 I hope a 翻转pety flop. Check this out.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/23637-Via-Rancho-Dr-Diamond-Bar-CA-91765/21488021_zpid/

    Sold by the original owner 至 a corp 12/31/13 for $435K. Hit 市场 at $599900 mid Feb of this year. 关d 3/7/14 for $601K all cash. Now it’列出,售价$ 64.8万。最近的全部现金购买者是个人。 Gotta认为即使是全现金购买,他在获得冠军和代管后至少要有$ 607K。

    扣除费用和税金之后,他的实际收入是多少?即使他不支付上市代理人的费用,他仍然必须向销售处支付$ 13K + $ 6的所有权和托管费用。如果在问价时卖出,他几乎不会赚到2万美元。

    有趣的时代。

    • 就像过去一样。

    • Its the individuals you 有 至 watch out for. At least the bigger businesses do proper accounting and value their time. The beauty of a 市场 is that it can create $213K and destroy it in a couple of months.

      我知道有些人只投资房地产市场(在SoCAL中有一个人想到了4栋房屋)。它没有’将其机会成本用于其他投资。他们想拥有一所房子。有点像金虫,但更主动。告诉我为什么可能在3-5年内退休的婴儿潮一代会以这些房屋价值购买房屋。有现金流,但在流动性不佳的市场上,您的束缚太多。另外,您必须处理这些废话。有人疯了吗?

  • Correlate cars and 房屋 you can easily mate the two, they are both two of the most important decisions of ones financial portfolio and it is a must 有.

    The American dream, 有 a house and nice car, folks it isn’美国人永远都不会背负债务来实现这一梦想。

    如果您真的认为房屋价格将下降25%到50%,并且汽车又可以负担得起,那么您将永远在外面有生锈的雪佛兰的情况下租车,如果那是您梦dream以求的梦想,那对于大多数人来说这个国家是一个家,一辆新车,还有一辆60″电视永远不会改变吗?

    • 是的,你是对的!他们是一样的。从购买之日起,两者都开始崩溃,随着时间的流逝,两者的维护成本都增加了。

      On key difference is due 至 the economic collapse the Government, Federal Reserve and the Banking industry 有 done everything humanly, legally and illegally, possible 至 elevate housing prices in the past 4 or 5 years.

      The question one has 至 ask is can they continue this extraordinary amount of manipulation of a 市场 forever? Perhaps a wiser investment is available with your hard earned cash than one that is being propped up?

    • 罗伯特,请安静。您必须努力争取一笔交易。

      我所在地区的房屋每天都在减少。和我们’每天谈论10到15个属性!

      谢天谢地。

    • these posts are a sure sign of a 市场 至p, we’我来过这里,不止一次。

  • 什么 happened 至 the traditional home buyer?

    他们的工作被送到了自由贸易的中国,印度和墨西哥,而只有一方获胜’毕竟是个好主意吗?从这里只会变得更糟。

  • I am a 23 year who live with my parents. I graduated from colllege two years ago and I cannot find a job that pays a living wage. I 将 love 至 buy a house but until I find a better paying job I will be with my parents. In my neighborhood, I 有 seem that young couples are moving in and buying with FHA. Some said they never 将 of thought that they will purchase a house in Compton.

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