的 加州住房市场 sits in an odd stage of limbo. 您 can see that the public for the most part is fully aware of the 情况 like an Alamo standoff in real estate. People fully acknowledge now that banks are holding off a tremendous 库存量。此时，关于影子库存的秘密很少。然而，对于所有陷入困境的房产，人们都在人为地考虑低利率，并且想知道现在是否该买房（假设他们不是就业不足的20％以上的人之一）。 浮动利率抵押 use is at all-time lows and why would you not go with a fixed rate given the insanely low rates? Yet the market and economy is not healthy. Mortgage rates and low inventory would be signs of a healthy market in other times but the opposite is the case. 什么 does this mean for housing going forward?
的 use of ARMs is practically non-existent when at the peak it 原为 nearly reaching 80 percent of all loan originations. This is Alt-A和选项ARM 我们曾经居住过的宇宙。从表面上看，ARM的低使用率可能很明显，但我认为它可以告诉我们更多有关市场的信息。当前，一些ARM的利率低得令人难以置信（但许多ARM都采用了传统的承保标准，需要支付较大的首付）。一些人的论点是，抵押贷款利率将在很长一段时间内保持低水平，类似于 日本经历了. If this is the case, then wouldn’t you think that going for an ARM with a 1 至 2 percent cut in APR would make sense? My take from this is that the public 没有’t believe that the Fed can keep this artificially low rate going for a long-time so grab those fixed rates while you can. Take a look at all the 纾困s and actions the Fed has had 至 do 至 keep rates low:
Everything would seem 至 favor a booming housing market but that is not happening. 您 essentially 有 a sub-group of folks with 公平 in their 首页s trying 至 trade 至 one another and first time buyers trying 至 scrape 至 gether enough for that 首付3.5％的FHA保险贷款。这反映出经济不佳而不是健康。看一下该州的破产情况：
Keep in mind that the falloff in 2006 hit because of the rush 至 file in 2005 before 破产 law became 至 ugher and more difficult 至 process. We are very much near peak levels under these new stringent requirements. In 2006 we were closer 至 35,000 破产 filings while last year we hit 230,000 (an increase of 557%). 什么 this dramatic change signifies is that the underlying economy is still very weak and many people are unable 至 meet their current 债务s. A large part of this is driven by housing 债务 via 抵押贷款 or HELOCs or other forms of 债务 based spending. Keep in mind over 30 percent of California mortgage holders are currently underwater owing more on their 首页 than it is currently worth.
Again the question remains, who can pay for these 首页s with a poor economy? 的 major growth group in the state is from baby boomers:
您 有 an aging population that essentially can sell 至 one another and transfer 公平 至 each other and a much less affluent younger population that is mired in other forms of 债务，包括学生债务。上图突出显示了增长趋势。人们是25至44岁年龄段的家庭，您会发现这一细分市场的增长并不十分显着。十年来家庭收入保持稳定：
–FHA insured 贷款 需要很少的费用（使用默认费率，价格会越来越高）
–受控 影子库存 由银行人为地限制供应。这是人为的，因为本质上发展了会计标准和纾困方案以改变银行以公众为代价开展业务的方式。
的 public now largely realizes that banks are operating in a pseudo-market and prime properties are being allocated even before they hit the MLS. I’ve gotten a few e-mails from folks seeing some interesting action in the short sale process especially when it comes 至 more prime properties. Again, this is not a “free market” but one that is being carefully managed. Yet you need 至 ask 至 what end? 的 real economy 没有’t seem 至 be producing the jobs 至 sustain current prices. This November taxes will be on the table. When 钱 is running short and 就业 opportunities seem limited you can expect the unexpected. Those that think housing is balancing itself out on its own need 至 look at that Fed chart again and examine FHA担保贷款违约率.你喜欢这个职位吗？订阅Housing Bubble医生的博客以获取最新的住房评论，分析和信息