加利福尼亚州不到三分之二的家庭有能力购买住房:在家居住的千禧一代数量继续增长。

我们绝对会进入房地产泡沫领域。加州最新的负担能力数据显示,只有29%的家庭实际上可以按今天的价格购买房屋。这就是为什么我们看到像 湾区即将推出PoppyLoan trying 至 bring back the nothing down days of the last bubble.  您 also have companies promoting their “one-click” 抵押贷款 as if taking on $800,000 in 债务 for a piece of junk in 旧金山 is a decision that should be made similar 至 liking a friend’s video on Facebook of a cat dressed up as a banker.  The number of 您ng adults living at home continues 至 stay at a record high.  Of course this is being driven by affordability and more 至 the point that people simply do not have the incomes 至 justify current prices.  The PoppyLoan in 旧金山, the hub of high income workers, actually states that this loan was made because people had a 至ugh time saving enough for a down payment.  那 should tell 您 a lot.  So let us look at the latest affordability figures.

加利福尼亚的负担能力

上一次我们在加利福尼亚的可负担能力范围内达到20%的时候是我们陷入最后一次房地产泡沫之时(在狂躁的抵押贷款日,也导致内爆)。您需要了解这意味着什么。家庭收入充分紧张。我们现在处于公司提供异国情调产品的阶段,以规避家庭无力节省首付的情况。在许多地区,由于 外国钱 and 投资人.  I always find it 有趣 that local house humping cheerleaders seem 至 think that foreigners just want 至 flush 钱 down the 至ilet.  Don’t 您 think they care about their 钱 more than some Taco Tuesday boomer?  And let us be direct, in California this 外国资金来自中国。  最近,中国经济遭受重创。我们尚未看到这如何影响整个市场。

我们还应注意,大多数止赎是发生在无聊的传统30年固定利率产品上。因为当经济遇到障碍时,当收入紧缩时,很难抵押好抵押或不良抵押。

但是在加利福尼亚州,住房负担得起的平价吸引了当地家庭:

加州负担能力

资料来源:加州房地产经纪人协会

我们如何阅读上面的图表?在加利福尼亚州,目前只有29%的家庭有能力以当前价格购买房屋。在海湾地区,即使所有高薪科技屋子里的小兵都四处游荡,这个数字还是可悲的20%。在LA / OC区域,这个数字是31%。内陆帝国对于当地家庭来说仍然相对便宜。

Of course many Taco Tuesday boomers are realizing 那里 is no 自由 lunch.  Now, they are seeing many of their kids leaving college with insane levels of 债务 and unable 至 find good paying work. 2.3 million 您ng adults live at home with their parents in California.  This trend is actually hitting the country:

千禧一代住在家里

And while some homeowners might be loving their paper housing wealth, they hear the laments of their children unable 至 buy on their 拥有.  I’ve heard it many times in “prime areas” where current 拥有ers say “I couldn’t buy 至day if I had 至” or “my kids have no way of buying in the immediate area” and somehow, that is as deep as the comment goes.  In 旧金山 where the typical home sells for $1.2 million good luck on buying a place 那里 至day。评论“看价格如何始终上涨”未能实现这个可负担性问题。事实是,今天只有极少数人可以购买。它还错过了一个明显的事实,即在过去10年中购买的1,000,000多名加利福尼亚人失去了房屋,丧失了赎回权。这意味着什么?在过去十年中,加州约有20%的购房者失去了住房。是的,这个事实很少出现。

不管您相信与否,即使价格像泡沫一样,我们仍然有大约100万水下房屋:

水下加州

今天的价格对大多数加利福尼亚人来说都是疯狂的价格。他们可以购买的唯一方法是利用更大的杠杆作用,人为地降低利率,从父母那里获得大笔的首付礼物,或者将预算扩展到危险的领域。请记住,自2009年以来,股市并未发生重大调整,而2007年的房地产泡沫对许多人来说是遥不可及的记忆。所以得到那些 零首付人士!止赎在美国从未发生过。

Did 您 Enjoy The Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information.

Did 您 Enjoy The Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information





103回应 至 “加利福尼亚州不到三分之二的家庭有能力购买住房:在家居住的千禧一代数量继续增长。”

  • 量化宽松深渊

    《洛杉矶周刊》的最新文章:“谁失去了美国梦?” …显然是千禧一代和拉丁裔

    http://www.laweekly.com/news/latinos-millennials-have-been-hit-hardest-by-the-housing-crisis-6593623

    “西班牙裔成为租房者的比率高于任何其他种族,” Trulia states.

    他们参加了“older millennials,” those ages 26 through 34, in being pushed disproportionately away from home 拥有ership, the site said.

    Trulia说,在全国范围内,经济衰退后的住房危机已将美国5%的人口推向租金市场。

    “尽管美国仍远未成为出租国,但美国50个最大都市中出租房的比例从2006年危机前的36.1%上升到2014年危机后的41.1%。”该网站在一份声明中说。

  • 是的,但是如果所有那些被取消抵押品赎回权的人都知道“over the 长期…”

  • We are looking at negative interest rates. This means mortgage rates will be taking a historic plunge which will drive home prices higher. Some are already active trying 至 get into decent properties. 唐’当利率下降时,不要被现金困住。股票会挣扎。房地产将上涨。您还没有看到任何东西。

    • 伊万·德拉戈(Ivan Drago)

      不不不…you’再说废话。那里’没有负利率的历史优先记录。在瑞士,如果实行负利率,抵押贷款利率不会下降。美联储可能正在探索将利率降至负数的方法,但同样’将世界储备货币的利率降为负没有先例。考虑以下…美国银行有大约7万亿美元的存款…there’s only about a trillion USD in physical bills circulating around the globe with the majority outside the US. IF rates went negative, some of that 钱 would try 至 enter the physical plane, A few unintended scenarios could play out (Again, all theorical since 那里’s no 优先权):

      -所有美元飙升的母亲,因为这些数字美元追逐实物美元。
      -全球金融体系中所有银行的母公司
      -如果政府愚蠢到足以将部分或全部数字货币转换为实物现金,则是所有超级通货膨胀的母亲。

      负利率唯一可行的方式是,如果禁止实物现金’重新推动,但我希望上帝永远不会实现。他们将试图以恐怖主义和洗钱为借口取缔现金。

      价格必须保持正价!
      http://www.businessinsider.com/negative-interest-rates-increase-the-cost-of-mortgages-and-put-more-cash-currency-into-circulation-2015-12?r=UK&IR=T

      • 房东的儿子

        那里’s no historical 优先权 至 negative rates. … 那里’s no 优先权 至 taking rates negative on the reserve currency of the world.

        正确的词是“precedent” and not “precedence.”

        优先权 —关于重要性或紧迫性的等级或地位。

        先例 —过去的一个例子为争论提供了证据。

        看到: http://www.grammar-monster.com/easily_confused/precedence_precedent.htm

      • 自2015年2月以来,丹麦而非CH一直是短期抵押贷款的所在地。它唯一将水踩到0以下的原因是因为欧洲央行决定不以任何一致性来计算欧元短期利率。他们只是复制并粘贴前一周的汇率,而不是将风险标志推向市场。他们使用CTRL + C CTRL + V的频率已经过速,在2015年只有少数重新定价。

      • 欧洲央行已经提出取消500欧元纸币的动议。
        已指示美国专家打败爵士鼓以摆脱本。
        如果有人没有’已经知道,将FRN存放在保险箱中是违反美联储法律的。
        我正在开始专门从事带内置拉链床的床垫业务。

    • 现在购买还是永远定价?

      • 这让我很伤心地看到这样的事情。的“立即购买或永久定价” mentality is EXACTLY how housing bubbles are made. Everyone frantically rushing 至 buy at the peak of the bubble, and then it bursts, and 那里 您 are underwater. Please calm down, take deep breaths, and step back from the situation before 您 make a decision that will destroy 您 financially forever. I have seen this happen.

      • 说好了茴香

        住房坦克很快!

      • 亚历克斯在圣何塞

        他们’re not making any more land! 您r kids will pay $3 million for a starter home so buy now!

        我想念2005年。

      • 负利率是一场灾难吗?

      • Anise I do not understand what 您 are saying. I saw the RE peaks in the late 80’在SoCal中,然后在’05/06 and values dipped after but then came back up. If 您 bought in ’06 in a good area 您r house is worth more 至day and 您 are 10 years into paying it off – how is that financially ruinous? What are 您 talking about Anise?

        Best of luck 至 all market timers, 您 are going 至 need it.

      • 如果水下有人需要在价格回升之前卖出,可能会造成财务上的损失。不会’Doc经常提到那些被阻止的人吗?我仍然在体面的SoCal地区看到上市,那里的人们净亏损。

        If buying has little risk of being a losing proposition, why would anyone need luck on 定时? In that case it would always be a good time 至 buy.

      • @猎鹰

        Market timers like Morgan Stanley who walked away from their obligations during the last downturn? Definitely better 至 buy at the height of the bubble and remain underwater 8 years later and ignore the 机会 costs, right?

      • Uh, Morgan Stanley lost about $10B due 至 the subprime implosion. 那’s B as in Billion. What are 您 talking about them walking away from losses, guy?

        Uh, 机会 cost? What do 您 mean? Those poor foreclosed souls went in with zero down, even financed their closing costs. What are 您 talking about? What 机会 cost??????

        Of course it is better 至 拥有 than rent if 您 can afford the payments. Like the stock market, 那里 are ups and downs in valuation, but the 长期 trend is unmistakenly UP in the better SoCal zips. UP means Higher. Not 至 mention 您 are paying down the 债务 = increased 公平。 Not 至 mention the tax shelter. Not 至 mention stability for the family.

        Look if 您 bought in a solid zip code in SoCal at the highest peak in ’06 您 are near or above that valuation 至day and 您 have paid down the mtg for 10 YEARS. If 您 were an idiot and lied on a loan app and got foreclosed on, 您 went in with zero skin, 您 probably lived in the house for years without making a payment, and 您 were back in business years ago 至 make a play for another property. Either way, 您 come out on 至p even having the worst “timing” possible….

        把...忘了吧 “timing” any market. Invest in 您r 401K regularly and buy RE that 您 can afford and let the passage of time work its magic. Unless 您 think 您 are smarter than everyone and can time markets, then go ahead and learn 您r lesson the hard way.

        或者只是呆在外面呆了一年,冻结了。就像《闪灵》结尾的杰克·尼科尔森一样。

      • @Falcantor: 您 have some cognitive dissonance 那里 amigo. First, 您 talk about buying a home as a win no matter what even for those that lost through foreclosure. Uh, okay. 您r assumption that most went in with no skin in the game is completely and utterly false. Not everyone bought with zero down 抵押贷款.

        And by the way, foreclosure is a big hit on the family stability argument 您 talk about. What about the strain for those needing 至 stretch 至 buy? Most can’不要买,因为他们不’t have the 钱. 您 mean 您r kids are going 至 be hookers and drug addicts if 您 rent?

        这是一篇文章,详细讨论了这个论点,这来自一个百万富翁,这当然可以’t happen according 至 您 since they are now renters:

        http://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/02/23/rent-v-owning-your-home-opportunity-cost-and-running-some-numbers/

        Just because buying for 您 worked in whatever SoCal niche zip code 您’ve picked doesn’这意味着这适用于大多数人,尤其是当前价格过高的人。它也没有’t mean 您 are a genius. It means 您 got lucky.

      • 现在购买,以后取消抵押品赎回权应该是任何在高峰期购买的人的声明。

      • @猎鹰

        更正:MS损失了所有这数十亿美元,因为价格太高了,即使主要的借款人(大部分违约)也无法’在经济不景气时负担不起他们。如果MS不这样做,那对于MS来说会更糟’与许多主要借款人一样,对水下可再生能源收购在战略上违约。

        It is precisely because of 机会 costs that many of the rich walked away rather than keep paying for underwater properties.

        有关战略违约的更多信息:“摩根士丹利(2010年前后)最近决定停止在旧金山的五栋办公楼上付款。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)基金在繁荣时期购买了这些建筑物,其价值却暴跌了。”

        http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/magazine/10FOB-wwln-t.html?_r=0

      • 杰伊

        Totally agree. Even with no down payment, an underwater borrower will still be servicing his 债务 far longer before recovering their 公平。

      • I still wait for a coherent explanation as 至 how all those who went in with zero down and lived in their homes for years without making a payment 遭受ed an “opportunity cost” Please elaborate.

        这样做的战略违约者是利用其他机会吗?听起来好像他们利用了其他“opportunities” –所以又是什么“opportunity cost” 遭受ed?

        至于那些坚持崩溃并继续付款的人–井底的油价急剧上升。他们本可以在底部保释,以追逐另一个非RE“opportunity” –在我目前所在的社区采取这种行动,将使他们损失约40万美元的反弹价值。仅用于支付抵押贷款。

        Good luck 至 Renter Nation with all 您r ‘opportunities’!!

      • “Like the stock market, 那里 are ups and downs in valuation, but the 长期 trend is unmistakenly UP in the better SoCal zips. UP means Higher. Not 至 mention 您 are paying down the 债务 = increased 公平。 Not 至 mention the tax shelter. Not 至 mention stability for the family.”

        撇开那些在情况上可能遭到抨击的股权和避税的陈词滥调,请注意“long term” rationale is slipping in ever more as we approach stall speed on this market. Happens every time and 那里fore is a fun qualitative 至pping signal.

        随着市场操纵随着每个周期的增加而增加,不幸的是,对于精明的人来说,时机变得越来越重要,这比过去基于Doc不倦地写博客的许多因素为基础。如今,家庭的稳定需要围绕时机提高警惕,因为多种家庭收入已被推到极限,而昔日的安全网已基本消失。对于那些根深蒂固的人来说,也许不是什么大不了的事,但是对于今天潜在的初学者来说却是另一回事。

        “Look if 您 bought in a solid zip code in SoCal at the highest peak in ’06 您 are near or above that valuation 至day and 您 have paid down the mtg for 10 YEARS. If 您 were an idiot and lied on a loan app and got foreclosed on, 您 went in with zero skin, 您 probably lived in the house for years without making a payment, and 您 were back in business years ago 至 make a play for another property. Either way, 您 come out on 至p even having the worst “timing” possible….”

        考虑到大多数人按30年计划,头10年支付的本金相对较少。几乎每个人和他们的母亲都通过抵押贷款从高利率中获得了抵押。’06,在某些情况下不止一次。我不’我不知道统计数字,但我想绝大多数会延长到30年。换句话说,十年后,本金’06年以前的买家,即使对于许多抵押买家而言,也很少遵循原则’06.

        那不是’如果所有人获得零首付贷款都使用了说谎者贷款。次级抵押贷款过度获得狮子’由于那些失败的程度更大,因此该时代的关注点有所增加。真正的故事是优质产品如何助长了躁狂症。

        在最后一个高峰期买入并达到或超过今天的估值对大多数人意味着什么?这意味着,如果他们想搬到同类或更好的房屋中,那么在扣除交易成本后可能会出现净损失。那怎么顶呢?

        “Forget about “timing” any market. Invest in 您r 401K regularly and buy RE that 您 can afford and let the passage of time work its magic. Unless 您 think 您 are smarter than everyone and can time markets, then go ahead and learn 您r lesson the hard way.”

        Considering that none of us have stated market 定时 is easy or even simple, that’这正是为什么购买和持有是大多数人首选的策略,这反过来又为市场定时器从中获利奠定了基础。我不会’建议人们不要忘记任何事情,而应该做他们自己喜欢的事情并提出问题,同时探索尽可能多的信息。

        “或者只是呆在外面呆了一年,冻结了。就像《闪灵》结尾的杰克·尼科尔森一样。”

        No one is frozen, renters are 自由 至 move about while 拥有ers are 自由 至 take losses and gains.

      • @猎鹰

        您继续做出错误的假设以支持不连续的主张。实际存在于账簿上的抵押品赎回权或违约造成了经济下滑。那些没有支付抵押贷款而留下来的人这样做是因为银行没有’不能要求他们为损失。正如一遍又一遍地重复的那样,次贷并不是经济下滑的罪魁祸首。

        The 机会 cost of continuing paying for an underwater property was investing that same 钱 into something that did not lose value (or as drastically). Thus, an 机会 cost isn’t something that 您 have 至 “suffer” as 您 and only 您 claimed.

      • If the global outlook was generally positive, I would agree that real estate is a good 长期 investment. While in areas, 拥有ing is better than 出租, everyone seems 至 look at real estate as a cash cow at some point! The problem is, our GDP has been slowing since the mid-70’s,现在地球正在感冒!加上到处增加的债务和负债,这威胁到各地的法定货币,您有一个巨大的问号???他们确实不这样做’t make anymore land, it is also true, that the number of potential buyers is shrinking along with economies, and major currency disruptions or 经济衰退s, while they may play 至 U.S. real estate, they may also work against it.

    • 美国采用负利率将是启示。它永远不会发生。Furthermore 那里 is very little hard evidence that negative interest rates helped the economy of any countries that have tried it.

      • 我不’t think it’对这些混蛋至关重要的经济。

      • “美国采用负利率将是启示。它永远不会发生。”

        湖南,
        I agree with 您r first statement but not with the second. JP Morgan Chase CEO in Davos already made a strong statement about the necessity 至 speed up the process 至 NIRP implementation. 您 can not have NIRP, especially more than 0.25% without eliminating the cash, otherwise 您 have a run on the banks.

        Chase is one of the largest banks who 拥有 the FED. If they want this, be sure the other banks want it, 至o. All large banks want NIRP.

        NIRP允许最大的银行变得更大,并消除较小的银行(竞争)。 NIRP允许将资金集中在越来越少的手中。消除现金可以使最大的银行和政府对经济和个人进行更多控制。它有助于制定更大的全球化议程,并建立一个控制所有国家的新金融帝国。

        In conclusion 您 can bet on NIRP. It is just a mater of time, but it will happen soon. Consequences of NIRP in a large economy like US are very hard 至 predict accurately. As a result of NIRP the 30 yr rate can go both ways (higher or lower) depending on many other factors –枚举太多,而系统太复杂而无法准确预测。

      • “Furthermore 那里 is very little hard evidence that negative interest rates helped the economy of any countries that have tried it.”

        湖南,

        I agree with this statement. However, 您 start with the premise that the largest banks take decisions based on the good of the country. IMO the largest banks who 拥有 the central banks make decision based on what is in their advantage. 他们 always do that. 那 is the reason that in the last few decades the financial sector dominates the US economy and gets a larger and larger % of the 至tal GDP. In the last financial crisis, over 1800 banks wend under. 那 means less competition for the TBTF who grew even larger and more powerful 至 control the government and the democratic process.

        So, yes, 您 are right that NIRP not only does not benefit the vast majority of the citizens, it is actually very detrimental 至 most of the people, especially the middle class.

        If 您 do an extensive research on NIRP, QE or ZIRP, 您 will realize that all are just 至ols for the new feudalism –富裕人群集中在最上层(0.0001%),其余人群则遭受苦难和大量失业。

      • 启示的迹象?

        我觉得’是他们在量化宽松之前所说的话。我当然没有’认为世界市场会让他们摆脱困境,但实际上他们吃了它!

      • 永远不要把话说绝了…。中央银行没钱了吗?

    • 你的前提不’t make sense. Why would stocks struggle in the scenario 您 present but housing go up? 他们 independent variable in the price function for both is the interest rate and it’在两种情况下均为非反正关系。

  • I think 那里 are a lot of short memories in California and elsewhere in the U.S. I hired some of those Silicone Valley IT types after the dot com crash in 2000 …他们很高兴接受了以前工资的50%的报价!我有很多IT人员’找不到工作,花了他们的积蓄和401k’s,并且在08/09之后绝望!我还记得长滩海军基地关闭以及最终造船厂关闭的影响,以及飞机制造最终在So结束时所遭受的冲击。校准任何人认为自己20万美元的薪水是安全的,并且应该沉迷于定价过高的房地产中,那么他们的记忆就非常短!

    • 有人拼命地试图使醉酒的政党开始逐渐消退。加利福尼亚以外以前过热的市场(即纽约市,澳大利亚,加拿大,香港)的价格已经开始下跌。高杠杆率的市场将无法避免这种蔓延。

    • 亚历克斯在圣何塞

      很多的地狱“silicone”山谷类型的人很幸运能获得每小时12-15美元的编程收入。

      This myth that 您 can come up here and get a great job is just that – a myth. 您’与H1B竞争’s,其中一些人住在宿舍里,每小时支付2美元左右的费用,还有数不清的’t realize yet they’ve been rooked.

      • 你继续发布…it isn’t true. I live in Alameda and live with a tech worker for a company in Millbrae with about 20 employees. 他们 basically hired all the employees at 45K salary and pay for BART/Clipper card (about $50 a week). All the programmers make more and they are 您nger kids…有些具有大学学历,有些则是自学成才。

        另一批Tech方面的耗资朋友只是告诉我,他们的硬核编程很多都是由俄罗斯,韩国或印度的承包商完成的。

        我还有另一个朋友在为皮克斯编程…dude is rich.

        另一个人(朋友的丈夫)是大约27岁的适用于Twitter的CAl毕业生…他们实际上做得不错,可以从埃默里维尔(Emeryville)搬入这座城市。

        奥克兰的新最低工资为12美元…您的解毒剂继续崩解。我知道奥克兰Temescal地区的女服务员收入将近60K。

        No one with a 4year degree CS or math or similar is make as little as 您 state.

      • I’我也打电话给他。谁可以’t find work simply skip 至wn 至 greener pastures (of which 那里 are many all over the country that pay $80k+). 他们 don’除非每小时接受$ 12,’s really what they’re worth –意味着他们在与其他人打交道时遇到重大问题,并且/或者在工作上表现很差。提供这种报酬的公司’不能找到有素质的人,要么改变要么失败。我公司尝试外包。一旦。它’自从进行了6年的改写和维修以来,我们’仍在处理混乱。

        我怀疑亚历克斯经常遇到的人与他共享同一条船–他们在附近或骑自行车的距离之内,吃相同的食物,在相同的商店购物,找到相同的便宜/免费服务。中位数工资数据表明有些完全不同,我必须同意。

        在某种相关的说明上– the majority of homeless quickly escape that situation unless 那里 is a mental health issue involved. If 您’re a programmer with a CS degree and living under a bridge, 您r problem isn’t that 您 can’t find work –尽管真正的问题是什么’s likely the cause of both 您r inability 至 find work and the bad decision 至 live under a bridge.

      • 我认为我们很多人都曾试图就硅谷的薪水教育亚历克斯,但无济于事。我公司的接待员每小时赚21美元。程序员的起薪大约为80k,几乎所有人的底数都超过100k。这些数字总体上与我的行业相符,而对于海湾地区而言则略低。

      • 而且不仅在这里与低薪H1B竞争,而且还与海外竞争。我工作的公司雇用了数百名在印度生活,工作和娱乐的程序员!他们只是将桌面远程访问我们公司,并在印度居住期间在我们的虚拟PC上进行工作!

        我想印度的生活成本比美国任何地方都低很多,更不用说加利福尼亚了!

        这就是我们’重新竞争!怎么样’甚至可能!!

      • 也许那些csee应该在当地的高中教书?数学,物理学bc或c ++…..

  • If 您 bought in 2012 when prices were still sane what do 您 do now? I live in 91773 and inventory is exploding, which was the beginning of the end on 2007. I think the “if 我不’t buy now…”谬论将阻止泡沫在今年夏天破灭,然后剩余的库存将开始吓到所有人,这一泡沫将在2018年之前显现出来。

    回到“if 您 bought in 2012:”多亏了在适当的时间购买价值33万美元的房屋,我有15万美元的净资产。我会在出租房上掷骰子数年,这样我就可以将该股本投入到令人敬畏的购买中,还是在我看着自己的假想财富(股本)减少到零时感谢明星们的合理抵押?我现在有能力升级到60万美元的房子,但我不知道’看不到这个市场的意义,从现在开始的3年后,60万美元可能会让我梦想中的家…

    • 亚历克斯在圣何塞

      是的,那’s what I’d do …当RE看起来像’即将下坡,我’请确保像地狱般典当我的狗并卖掉我的房子,使之进入价格高达2倍的房子。

      当然如果我真的很傻,我’d请把我有15万美元资产的房子当作住所,并坐好。但是那’s crazy talk.

    • 白手起家的投资者

      If 您r goal really is 至 cash out and then re enter housing at lower prices… Don’t try 至 call the 至p. Make sure 您r house is showroom ready. Get rid of things 您 don’请勿使用,并确保房屋内外均显示良好。然后当住房使它’s moves downward (not happening in central coast CA) put the sign in the yard. 您 might not get every nickel out that 您 had, but selling in the fall of 2006, thru 2007 would have been close enough 至 the 至p.

      • This is the best advice so far because none of us are going 至 understand 您r appetite for risk like 您 would.

        到2008年为止的几年中,有很多人预测主要的房地产市场会重新设置并相应地安排退出时间,我记得在下降趋势确认之前,他们没有人做出过有关重新进入的评估或举动,因为他们首先专注于出口。

        我迅速检查了91773处的租金,情况反映出洛杉矶和旧金山附近沿海地区的情况,即租金上涨停滞了。从历史上看,这并不表示这只鸟很快就会飞得更高。

      • 只是为了澄清,白手起脚’对OP的建议就是我所指的。

      • 当它,意味着说白骨节’的建议是迄今为止最好的!

    • Put away 您r 水晶球 安琪莉可. Pay 您r mortgage and enjoy 您r home.

    • 布兰克芬勋爵

      安琪莉可, 您 should consider 您rself lucky buying in 2012. As the Falconator said, pay 您r mortgage and enjoy 您r home. Nobody (and I mean nobody) could have predicted how the last decade played out. With that said, nobody has any idea what the future holds. 您 拥有 a home with 150K in equity, likely below rental parity, go pop open a nice cold beer…you don’t have any worries.

    • I’m roughly in the same boat as 您. I briefly thought of doing what 您’re considering, eek. If 您 are happy where 您 live, I’d考虑像布兰肯费恩勋爵和猎鹰鹰所说的那样待在原地。那里’没有伸展,实际上在财务上有点舒服是没有错的。请享用

  • 如果库存在91773(2月)呈爆炸式增长,则大多数邮政编码中的库存可能会相同。传统上,春天是列表增加的时候。我认为降价在2016年会很普遍。

  • 所以告诉我…。尽管当前有厄尔尼诺现象,但显然干旱仍在继续时会发生什么?可能有助于释放更多的空气,不是吗?

  • 3500万人,而且还在增加……..所有需要更长的吸管!

  • 埃里克·肯加德

    ”。 。 。不知何故,评论就这么深。”
    当然。大多数人没有能力将由移民驱动的过度人口增长与房地产价格之间的联系联系起来。有人甚至冒险提出荒谬的评论“poor immigrants don’t buy houses.” 他们 don’t,但即使租金’仅是车库的一部分,而房东则购买房屋和公寓。
    人口密度是土地价格以及住房价格的主要驱动力。高移民是人口密度的主要驱动力。
    例如,参见雅各布·L·维格多(Jacob L. Vigdor)为美洲协会/美洲理事会和新美国经济合作组织所做的移民与美国城市的复兴,他声称在美国,目前有4000万以上的移民已使全国房屋价格上涨了3.7万亿美元。

    • 埃里克,

      高价格不要 ’意味着更高的生活水平。这意味着较低的生活水平。

      Higher densities also mean lower standard of living for everyone: renters and landlords, rich and poor. If not higher density in the house, definitely 您 will see higher density on the streets regardless of where 您 drive. 那 means inhaling smog for hours every day, less time with family and less 自由 time. It also mean higher chance of accidents (statistically). Even if 您 have perfect driving, 您 have a higher chance that someone else will hit 您.

      • 天桥,我不’没有看到有人针对与人口密度和/或移民有关的生活水平提出过争论。我想念什么?

      • 杰夫

        这暗示着,即使那些移民的土地贫瘠,价格也会因持续的移民而上涨。我是那些主张没有工作或没有较高工资的人口增加并不构成需求增加的人之一。按照这个理由,印度和巴西的需求将比索卡尔更高,因为它们的人口密度更高。他们所拥有的只是贫民窟的增加。

        我对人口增加的看法是,所有增加的都是贫困,交通拥堵和人口密度,就像每单位四个家庭一样。

        Price increases, IF they happen, will affect in a negative way both renters and 拥有ers for reasons I already mentioned. The only beneficiaries will be those who sell high and move somewhere else.

        If 您 or Erick see something positive in that, I am glad 您 are optimistic in SoCal RE. It doesn’不会影响我我只是给那些关心我的人2c。

      • 天桥– thanks for clarifying. We agree that 那里 isn’对我们的人口增长没有什么正面影响’re witnessing. Overall I agree with what 您’re saying.

        我猜’s anecdotal on my part, but it seems like 那里 is some impact on rental pricing due 至 immigration (i.e. put 2 or 3 families in one home/apt and the $3k or $4k per month rent gets paid).

  • 是。当地跳房子的啦啦队长也认为父母也可能想冲厕所钱。… Parents, keep 您r powder dry. It’s not time 至 buy.

  • ladera的降价怎么样?

    从145万到90万!谈论进入市场现实!

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17-Sea-Grape-Rd-Ladera-Ranch-CA-92694/63115684_zpid/

  • If 您 pause and think 长期 您 will realize that the ONLY way out is 至 debase the currency. 那里 will be fits and starts but the trillions in unfunded liabilities and the now 19 trillion in 债务 will be serviced with funny 钱.

    • 相信我,他们试图诱发通货膨胀,美联储又名本,现在耶伦。今天的低通货膨胀率之所以不能奏效的原因是最后一次崩盘,原因是资金流失严重,而且大部分资金都用于向银行注资。许多国家/地区降低了本币的贬值能力,而美国被视为贬值程度较低的国家,而美元确实吸引了竞标(美元是自240年前成立以来从未重置过的少数几种货币之一,大多数人没有’不知道这一点。与欧洲债券相比,美国财政部仍能产生良好的价值,而日本债券中的一些已变为负值。全球经济增长是有力的,因此进一步刺激了美国经济& USD.

      这些天的通货膨胀不是由于需求,而是由于更高的税收,薪金,其他商业成本等,更多地推动了成本…另外,由于政府发放的资金有所增加。

      只需等到加利福尼亚为他们的金库提高可再生能源税,然后我们将看到价格将如何在经济下滑的基础上站稳脚跟。我认为房地产的上升空间有限,而下降的空间有限’风险较高。但是我不’不过,不要指望会发生巨大的崩溃,因为我们并没有真正陷入邮政编码以外的泡沫中(由于资金的高度集中)。我的猜测是,在接下来的十年中,我们只会li行。如今,我相信住房比起快速致富的计划更像是避风港,特别是如果我们拥有NIRP。

      一些我的杂物…

  • 如果您有住宿的地方,那就留在原地。经济不健康的迹象是操纵利率以支撑泡沫蓬勃的股票市场。在达沃斯,首席执行官’在闭门讨论中,“recession”. 那 was several weeks ago, the DOW since then dropped 800 points. The markets directly impacts housing. Fear drives capital expenditure and hiring. If companies halt hiring then 那里 is reduced flow of 钱 in circulation. When companies halt purchases then ancillary businesses 遭受. People only buy homes when things look bright on the horizon. Interest rates are great when people can refinance and get a lower payment. At these rates, a home 拥有er will never be able 至 take equity from their home 至 absorb the financial loss of loosing a job. 他们 will not be able 至 eliminate their PMI, they will not be able 至 buy a car. 您 would be amazed at how 花式的 the TUFF sheds are getting in front of 首页 Depot, because people are afraid, “如果我丢掉工作和房子,我可以住在这东西里吗”?考虑一下,因为它正朝您的方向发展。

  • 结婚夫妇– neighbors of mine –都在几周前裁员了。豪斯上周上市。他们在2012年为此支付了260,000美元–售价为$ 450,000。

    待售中。我在萨克拉曼多(Sacramento)东部地区的所有产品仍在以低价疯狂出售。我不’t get it….

  • A “crystal ball” is hardly required when 您’re in a bubble, 那里’s plenty of real evidence 至 rely upon. This could be the last year 您 can reasonably sell for the next few crazy years.

    租金平价是一个很好的观点,但是没人能解决我关于股权蒸发的担忧。我现在有15万美元,但是这笔钱很容易在1中蒸发掉–2年。在2007年发生的许多事情–2009年。我们没有同样的次级抵押贷款风险,但有迹象表明放贷机构过度扩张,并且有2007年不存在的因素,例如中国的金融崩溃。当中国投资者开始清算抵押贷款支持证券以弥补其他损失时,这对银行行为有何影响?投资者需求=宽松的限制和最低的利率,需求减少=合格的购买者减少,因为发起无法出售的贷款的动机更少。当那些同样的中国投资者出售其在房地产投资信托中的权益时’拥有所有影子库存现金投资者的S和其他资产基金在过去几年中sc取,可能会导致供应涌入。将两者加在一起,便可以增加供应量+减少需求量=降低价格。只要住宅房地产是一个投机市场,它就不能作为长期投资真正安全,除非您也以买入低价/卖出高价的形式进行投机。另一方面,与通货膨胀时期的硬资产相比,现金可能不是一个好的选择,但是’是真实的:买房子时你不知道’t “own” a home, 您 pay rent in the form of interest and slowly buy it over 30 years. The bank 拥有s it until then, 您’只是一个光荣的房客,承担着房东的所有费用和责任。

    At some point we may arrive at the end of a bubble we cannot recover from thanks 至 baby boomers. Look at the most recent census data and 您 will see the vast majority of homeowners are over 60, and this generation seems remarkably uninterested in downsizing into senior housing. This cannot last forever: eventuLly that supply will be reach the market as well, and if it overlaps with high inventory / low prices the market may be much slower 至 recover than the ~5 years it 至ok last time.

    Equity 您 hold 至day is a guaranteed gain if 您 sell 至morrow and simply imaginary wealth if 您 hold on 至 您r real estate.

    • 房东的儿子

      您 shouldn’t think of 您r house as “equity.”

      那’问题。如今,人们将房屋视为投资,并且始终在思考是否应该对其进行再融资,借出另一笔抵押贷款,出售或以其他方式最大化其价值“equity.”

      我认为人们应该尽快还清抵押贷款,除非别无选择,否则不要再抵押贷款。还清房子并住进去。它’不是投资,它’s a HOME.

      If 您 like the house, and 您 like the neighborhood, and 您 can afford it, who cares whether the house’的价值上升还是下降?

      As others have noted, 您r primary residence is a consumable product. 您 use it 至 make 您 happy, not as an investment.

      那 used 至 be a common outlook in the 1970s, when I was a 您ng lad. It’那是我父母的想法

      • 那’合理的建议。我不’真的很喜欢这所房子,邻里很近,学校很棒。仅学校就足以在未来10年内住宿,但要买一所更老的房子实在太昂贵了“loveable” status and we’如果我们租房,d会有更多的消耗性收入。

        那些刚刚购买并留下来的家庭很多’40多年后,他们仍然在同一个房子里。那’田园诗般的甜美,但同时也占用了大量库存:对于年轻人来说(’m 33)中产阶级家庭可以与一流的学校融为一体,在这里,您可以’d愉快地停留30年以上。和你的中产阶级父母住在一起真是个玩笑‘罩是70万美元,我可以’尽管比我这个年龄的人更成功,却负担不起。我买了我买得起的最好的,即使是在市场低谷附近。’t much. It’很难不看Zillow并思考“最终,这种公平可能会使我前进到想要成为的地方。”

        I see 您r point and it makes perfect sense, but I also wonder if the wisdom of that philosophy only worked when home 拥有ership was on the rise and 投资人 built homes instead of 拥有ing them and their mortgage backed securities.

  • 时间回溯到2012年,当时格雷格·利普曼(Greg Lippmann)(在泡沫时期缩短了房地产市场)呼吁住房复苏。他的对冲基金主要由抵押支持证券组成,2010年至2015年获利:

    http://nyti.ms/y2xLNX

    该基金在2015年遭受了亏损:

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0UP26320160112

    在其他地方宣布,格雷格·利普曼(Greg Lippmann)正在筹集一项与房地产相关的新基金,但他并非’揭示确切的成分。一世’m guessing he’再次押注房地产市场,而不是因为住房市场而公开’最好先在那场比赛上。

  • 这里’一百万美元的房子: //www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/3354-Virginia-Ave-90404/home/6764553

    *在窗户上的酒吧。

    * Freeway ramp right in 您r backyard. (check the 谷歌 Street View.)

    *肮脏的内部。

    所有这一切,仅需一百万美元!

    当然是在圣莫尼卡。距海滩仅30个街区。

  • 房屋将是最后一个要破解的螺母。对他们来说幸运的是,他们处于裁员潮的前沿。

  • 量化宽松深渊

    洛杉矶时报关于将众筹用于房屋翻新的文章

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-crowdfunding-house-flippers-20160214-story.html

    摘抄:
    从2013年9月(根据新的安全和交易委员会规则首次允许股权众筹)到去年9月,投资者向纽约数据提供商Crowdnetic跟踪的众筹平台注资8.7亿美元。其中近四分之一(2.08亿美元)用于房地产项目。

    那’不仅包括生物技术,替代能源,技术可穿戴设备,在线游戏和社交媒体初创企业。

    尽管数据提供者没有’相对于大型项目的开发商而言,与房屋承建商的贷款数量或美元数量相比,有十多个以房地产为中心的平台向他们提供贷款。少数南加州的初创公司专门从事该市场。

    去年,西洛杉矶的一块土地提供了约6,100万美元的贷款,其中大部分用于房屋的鳍状肢,而曼哈顿海滩的PeerStreet则提供了4,000万美元的贷款,几乎全部都贷给了他们。

    “There’现在每个月出现一次群众骚动,而低落的果实就是解决之道,”世纪城房地产融资公司乔治史密斯合伙人的负责人乔纳森·李说。

    融资平台背后的企业家发现房屋倒挂很有吸引力,因为银行没有’t participate and 那里 are no big, established players.

    传统抵押贷款人想认识一个借款人’的个人信用记录和收入,并且可能不会’不允许借款人一次在六处房产上偿还贷款,这在蛙鞋中并不常见。

    那 has forced most house flippers 至 rely on a hodgepodge of small private lenders, wealthy 投资人 or friends and family for capital. Today’的众筹平台使鳍状肢可以利用更大的投资者网络。这些平台向有资格的投资者开放,他们必须每年赚取超过20万美元或拥有至少100万美元的净资产。

  • I agree that Los Angeles is unaffordable 至 most people. But why are 您 convinced that it will ever be affordable again? Most of the very best cities are not affordable. Paris, London, Milan, Manhattan, all out of reach of 90 percent of families, Take my advice, just accept that LA will never be affordable 至 您 and if living in a nice house is important 至 您 move 至 flyover where houses cost very little

    • “I agree that Los Angeles is unaffordable 至 most people. But why are 您 convinced that it will ever be affordable again? Most of the very best cities are not affordable. Paris, London, Milan, Manhattan, all out of reach of 90 percent of families,”

      我觉得这句话很有趣,我’我去过巴黎,伦敦,&曼哈顿,他们都比洛杉矶好。我没有’我去过米兰,但我认为这也使洛杉矶看起来像提华纳的厕所。一世’我会承认洛杉矶有不错的地方,但是交通如此糟糕,谁能到达那里,或者在任何地方呢?我在洛杉矶生活了20多年。我于2015年离开,在过去的3年中,我几乎没有离开过这座房子,因为花了几个小时才走了几英里。街道维护不良&人行道让我想起了第三世界国家。只需看看市中心和高速公路下方突然冒出的棚户区。上一次我在市中心时,洛杉矶街的人行道上睡着的人太多,以至于行人必须走在实际的街道上而不是人行道上,而这距离LAPD车站只有两个街区。“Best city” my ass.

      • 确实-尽管没有完美的地方,但就两个主要因素而言,将洛杉矶与其他城市(和纽约市)进行比较:1.暴力和2.基础设施。当然,伦敦和巴黎的部分地区可能类似于移民/第三世界的犹太人聚居区,但枪支暴力的绝对程度却没有’甚至在一个美好的周末都不能接近洛杉矶。另外,在所有其他城市中,有大量公共交通系统。你不’t need a car, and can find most local services all within a short walk in 您r 拥有 neighborhood.

    • I’我也去过相当一部分欧洲城市,所有这些城市都比洛杉矶的95%好得多。雅典也许是一个例外,但我认为总体上还是更好。甚至更小的城市也更好,而且据推测也比洛杉矶便宜’记得曾经在欧洲任何城市都不得不踩过人类的粪便’ve visited; it’在洛杉矶漫步时,这几乎是一个保证。我将承认温哥华有相当多的无家可归者。但它’比洛杉矶还好

      Also, 您 don’t have 至 make an extreme choice like L.A. or flyover country. 那里 are various compromises, as long as 您 have halfway decent purchasing power: condo near the beach in OC/LA/SD; house in south Orange County, etc.

    • 我们倾向于在这里不时看到这个稻草人。

      It’这不是廉价的问题,而是成本相对于所获得的价值而言是高昂的。

      一方面,我们’给出了为什么洛杉矶在其他城市中处于独特位置以证明成本合理性的原因,但在这种情况下,还提供了其他原因“world class”城市作为理由的基础。仅是一个如此矛盾的例子,每个提到的城市都经历了动态的气候,并且不可能在同一天滑雪和冲浪。

      洛杉矶没有’在过去的三到四年中,气候和相对特征改善了45%。它也没有’使其最著名的无可争辩的问题(例如交通和犯罪)改善了45%。它确实实现的是房屋成本提高了45%。

      Surely 那里 may be those who come along 至 claim that Los Angles was a bargain in 2012, and 那里fore not a good baseline for comparison. If it’s truly the case Los Angeles was a bargain only a few short years ago, and 那里fore also comparatively on occasions prior, how exactly can it not reach a bargain again?

      • 首先,过去几年里洛杉矶的温暖季节非常热。当我说热的时候,我的意思是与凤凰城和维加斯相媲美的地狱般的炙手可热(顺便说一下,那些地方更便宜)。

        I would like 至 see someone surf and ski in the same 24hr period. Due 至 traffic, 您 better leave at 12:01AM or get 您r 拥有 helicopter.

        您声称2012年在洛杉矶的住房很便宜。是的,与今天的价格相比。但是,与该国几乎所有其他地区(不包括曼哈顿和旧金山)的价格相比,即使在2012年,其价格仍然高得离谱。

        为什么在短短几年内住房急剧增加?仅仅因为供应不足和购房狂。洛杉矶建成。您多久看到一次新建筑物?由于具有强大的功能,几乎不可能获得所需的许可才能拆除新结构的一些漏洞。上帝禁止玛丽莲·梦露或詹姆斯·迪恩放屁一次,现在’永远受保护的地标。唐’t forget about the NIMBY crowd who 拥有, but don’认为没有其他人应该这样做。此外,洛杉矶只有那么多理想的社区和学区。有很多不良的社区和可怕的学区。理想社区中少数可用房屋的竞争推动了房价飙升。离开热闹的购房者,寻找下一个Echo Park或Silverlake(例如,’值得追求。)

        I think if people had similar job 机会 in other cities, many would migrate away from LA.

    • 文西尔 您 are wasting 您r time, some people are simply delusional and cannot accept that certain cities/areas will remain very expensive. The truth is that the vast majority of the world is quite affordable 至 the Avg Joe, but some cannot accept that 100% of the world is not within their budget.

      Some will slam LA, or SD, or SF, or NYC, on and on, but their views and others like them are obviously minority views because prices in the these cities remain high, which means 那里 is plenty of demand. It is actually funny 至 hear someone slam LA when if they had the 钱 至 afford a nice area/lifestyle 那里, they would change their tune.

      • 将问题误认为是价格而不是价值’不能改变洛杉矶房屋价格处于泡沫中而要进行重大修正的可能性。

  • 怪罪美联储制造这种泡沫!

  • When 您 have a state that is over 40 million people and (who knows how many are not even counted) it tends 至 be chaos time, all the time. Just think that CA. has about 10 times more the problems and 您 get the picture, it is a one class state, rich 至 very rich and the rest fall into a wasteland of just trying 至 survive, they believe everybody in America lives this life, most have no idea what quality of life is?

  • 我不’t know any1 notice or not, usually after el nino hit California, 那里 is booms in California real estate??
    when 那里 is blood in middle east or paris or dprk,,, people lov their”inland empires??”

  • @猎鹰
    I agree with 您!
    把...忘了吧 “timing” any market. Invest in 您r 401K regularly and let the passage of time work its magic.

    • 某事没有’没有道理。为什么任何相信设置并忘记它的人都会阅读这些页面?

      • 他可能只是想成为法庭上唯一拥有支票簿的人,因为他的自律性IRA购买了所有这些多部门单位。

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