Long live the rally in C加州房价: How much momentum does the current real estate run have? A market where heartfelt 让ters are required begging sellers 至 offer you a 大萧条 built home for an outrageous price.
However you want 至 slice it, median or repeat same home sale prices the price of a home in California went into the stratosphere over the last year. The 心理学 has now shifted 至 full fledge mania where people think they are going 至 be priced out but some are oblivious 至 the reality 那 they are competing with a 大量的投资者。 2012年3月，SoCal房屋的房价中位数为280,000美元。 2013年3月，价格跃升至345,500美元。有什么理由证明如此大的举措？唯一真实的理由是美联储人为地低利率，低库存和投资者（当前市场的三重奏），但是这种速度是完全不可持续的，并且您会看到这种趋势在年底出现。为什么？因为您不可能在中位数价格上获得20％以上的年度收益，而媒体正以此为狂热。 3月份所有SoCal采购中惊人的34％来自所有现金购买者。这种趋势有多少动力？
The last time we had such a strong pace upwards was during the peak years of the 泡沫. Of course we are nowhere close 至 the 30 percent gains from the 泡沫 but 10+ percent is significant especially when much of the growth is coming from hot 钱 and incredibly low inventory. The name of the current game right now is capitulation. We saw similar things in 2004 and 2005 when it was becoming clear a 泡沫 was in place but people 至 get into the game 至ok on 有毒抵押 资助他们在房地产市场上的竞争。
Just because people are verifying their income does not mean they can handle a mortgage when other 债务 items are factored in (i.e., student 债务, auto 债务, etc). The rally in the housing market is incredible given all the weak 就业 reports 那 are coming out. A large portion of job growth is coming from low wage jobs and we are hearing from the Census 那 the last few months of labor “improvements” have flat out come from people exiting the work force.
So you have 至 take the gains in context. We also have the Fed mentioning 那 part of the recovery is because of housing causing a snake eating its own tail effect:
“（华尔街日报） 美国联邦储备 stimulus aimed at spurring growth will likely grow more powerful as the housing market recovers further, but the trends 那 have fueled income inequality aren’t likely 至 change much, a U.S. central bank official said Thursday.
“ [联邦公开市场委员会]，以及我们为缓解抵押贷款市场条件而做出的共同努力将有助于经济继续获得牵引力。” 莎拉·布鲁姆（Sarah Bloom Raskin） said.
“I think it is possible 那 accommodative monetary policy could be increasingly potent” as the housing market picks up, Ms. Raskin 说过。”
So basically 投资人 and large hedge 资金 will continue 至 buy up properties while more and more Americans will be given the boot form the 中产阶级. It is naïve 至 think 那 having artificially low rates comes at no cost. We are already seeing the hit being taken across the board. So you have banks, many 那 caused 泡沫 1.0, kicking people out, buying these places up with Fed artificial QE and then jacking rents up or 翻转 them 至 new buyers. Sounds like a fantastic gig and 那 is why Wall Street suddenly has butterflies in their stomach when they think of residential real estate.
The repeat index has prices up above 10 percent and the median price is up 20+ percent. Yet overall household economic gains are weak. In other words, jump on the housing 泡沫 bandwagon for round two. Looking 至 buy in the city of Los Angeles?
在过去几年中，库存下降了近80％。你想拥有自己的房子吗？请放慢脚步，因为您将进入鲨鱼缸，几乎所有现金投资者，外国资金， FHA买家, and your regular conventional mortgage buyers. And we’ve only started the spring and summer selling season! So how much momentum does this rally have? Hard 至 tell but the 心理学 now is fully in a mania stage “I need 至 offer $50,000 over ask or I’ll be outbid” or “forget about any inspection, 让 us just clear all contingencies.” Or the heartfelt 让ters 至 sellers begging them 至 sell you a 大萧条 曲奇切工回家的价格为$ 800,000。
“（每日微风）一点诚意在今天起了很大的作用。据《纽约时报》（New York Times）最近的一篇文章报道，代理商越来越多地要求其买家在提出购买房屋要约时提交购买协议。
Personal 让ters and even baked goods can win-over a hesitant seller, giving the buyer just enough of a competitive edge 至 garner the seller’s acceptance when multiple offers have been submitted. It seems 那 cash is nice, but love 让ters sweeten the deal.”