Long live the rally in C加州房价: How much momentum does the current real estate run have? A market where heartfelt 让ters are required begging sellers 至 offer you a 大萧条 built home for an outrageous price.

However you want 至 slice it, median or repeat same home sale prices the price of a home in California went into the stratosphere over the last year.  The 心理学 has now shifted 至 full fledge mania where people think they are going 至 be priced out but some are oblivious 至 the reality 那 they are competing with a 大量的投资者。 2012年3月,SoCal房屋的房价中位数为280,000美元。 2013年3月,价格跃升至345,500美元。有什么理由证明如此大的举措?唯一真实的理由是美联储人为地低利率,低库存和投资者(当前市场的三重奏),但是这种速度是完全不可持续的,并且您会看到这种趋势在年底出现。为什么?因为您不可能在中位数价格上获得20%以上的年度收益,而媒体正以此为狂热。 3月份所有SoCal采购中惊人的34%来自所有现金购买者。这种趋势有多少动力?

房屋价值的上升

现在,LA-OC地区的房屋价值每年增长超过10%(相同的房屋重复销售):

案件席勒洛杉矶

The last time we had such a strong pace upwards was during the peak years of the 泡沫.  Of course we are nowhere close 至 the 30 percent gains from the 泡沫 but 10+ percent is significant especially when much of the growth is coming from hot 钱 and incredibly low inventory.  The name of the current game right now is capitulation.  We saw similar things in 2004 and 2005 when it was becoming clear a 泡沫 was in place but people 至 get into the game 至ok on 有毒抵押 资助他们在房地产市场上的竞争。

Just because people are verifying their income does not mean they can handle a mortgage when other 债务 items are factored in (i.e., student 债务, auto 债务, etc).  The rally in the housing market is incredible given all the weak 就业 reports 那 are coming out.  A large portion of job growth is coming from low wage jobs and we are hearing from the Census 那 the last few months of labor “improvements” have flat out come from people exiting the work force.

So you have 至 take the gains in context.  We also have the Fed mentioning 那 part of the recovery is because of housing causing a snake eating its own tail effect:

“(华尔街日报) 美国联邦储备 stimulus aimed at spurring growth will likely grow more powerful as the housing market recovers further, but the trends 那 have fueled income inequality aren’t likely 至 change much, a U.S. central bank official said Thursday.

“ [联邦公开市场委员会],以及我们为缓解抵押贷款市场条件而做出的共同努力将有助于经济继续获得牵引力。” 莎拉·布鲁姆(Sarah Bloom Raskin) said.

她说:“随着房价上涨,越来越多的家庭拥有足够的房屋净值来重新获得抵押贷款,并能够以较低的利率为其房屋再融资。”

“I think it is possible 那 accommodative monetary policy could be increasingly potent” as the housing market picks up, Ms. Raskin 说过。”

So basically 投资人 and large hedge 资金 will continue 至 buy up properties while more and more Americans will be given the boot form the 中产阶级.  It is naïve 至 think 那 having artificially low rates comes at no cost.  We are already seeing the hit being taken across the board.  So you have banks, many 那 caused 泡沫 1.0, kicking people out, buying these places up with Fed artificial QE and then jacking rents up or 翻转 them 至 new buyers.  Sounds like a fantastic gig and 那 is why Wall Street suddenly has butterflies in their stomach when they think of residential real estate.

查看SoCal的价格中位数变化:

加州房价

The repeat index has prices up above 10 percent and the median price is up 20+ percent.  Yet overall household economic gains are weak.  In other words, jump on the housing 泡沫 bandwagon for round two.  Looking 至 buy in the city of Los Angeles?

洛杉矶库存

在过去几年中,库存下降了近80%。你想拥有自己的房子吗?请放慢脚步,因为您将进入鲨鱼缸,几乎所有现金投资者,外国资金, FHA买家, and your regular conventional mortgage buyers.  And we’ve only started the spring and summer selling season!  So how much momentum does this rally have?  Hard 至 tell but the 心理学 now is fully in a mania stage “I need 至 offer $50,000 over ask or I’ll be outbid” or “forget about any inspection, 让 us just clear all contingencies.”  Or the heartfelt 让ters 至 sellers begging them 至 sell you a 大萧条 曲奇切工回家的价格为$ 800,000。

“(每日微风)一点诚意在今天起了很大的作用。据《纽约时报》(New York Times)最近的一篇文章报道,代理商越来越多地要求其买家在提出购买房屋要约时提交购买协议。

Personal 让ters and even baked goods can win-over a hesitant seller, giving the buyer just enough of a competitive edge 至 garner the seller’s acceptance when multiple offers have been submitted. It seems 那 cash is nice, but love 让ters sweeten the deal.”

加利福尼亚住房集会万岁!从好的方面来看,国家预算需要更高的财产税,因此这是双赢的。对?

你喜欢这个职位吗?订阅Housing Bubble博士的博客可获取最新的住房评论,分析和信息。

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79个回答 至 “Long live the rally in C加州房价: How much momentum does the current real estate run have? A market where heartfelt 让ters are required begging sellers 至 offer you a 大萧条 built home for an outrageous price.”

  • Doc,
    同样的故事在波特兰,在西雅图更是如此…minimal inventory, prices jumping so fast 那 ’07年高点又重新出现。对普通购买者而言,对还是错是很重要的。他们只是想进来。这里很起泡’这个春天来的很快。

    • 俄勒冈阅读器

      当然,俄勒冈州的变量比加利福尼亚州有趣得多。由于俄勒冈州上诉法院在尼迪(Niday)的裁决,去年7月止赎终止。该决定要求所有MERS记录的拖欠抵押贷款必须通过法院取消抵押,而不是通过俄勒冈州正常的非司法抵押取消程序来取消。非司法丧失抵押品赎回权需要大约六个月,司法部门平均需要花费大约18个月。现在,新的止赎文件已达到止赎过程高峰时的水平。第二次免除抵押赎回权定于2013年秋末上市。’t be until a least fall of 2014, if not later. The filings from March 2013 will represent a doubling of incoming inventory in fall of 2014. When ne factors in a significant number of new housing starts and the increased FHA requirments it seems likely 那 泡沫2.0 in Oregon will peak late summer 2013 and prices will stagnate or decline at least into 2015.

      • 谢谢您对我的情况有了更好的解释’ve posted previously regarding the situation in Portland. Once they passed 那 law the supply of 止赎 dwindled 至 next 至 nothing in a matter of months.

      • 俄勒冈阅读器

        是的’很有意思,因为它看起来像我们一样’没有任何抵押品赎回权,但它们只是被延迟了。 Niday的俄勒冈州最高法院意见应在几个月内发布。同时,请查看最近三个月的最初止赎申请。

        http://gorillacapital.com/news/2013/04/15/oregon-foreclosures-climb-in-march/#more-362

      • I’ve heard there’俄勒冈州的谈论’s 财产税es.

      • 有人在谈论提高财产税(一次),但是此时很多人被吸引出来,因为那里的城市如此发达’仍在增加更多税金方面有所回落。他们最近通过了一种称为“arts tax”在波特兰,平均每户每人$ 35。大部分’不会去很多较小的非–在这里获利,但在政治上却通常如此–连接大型慈善机构。

  • 他们(我们的政府)只需要看起来足够长的东西就可以使他们从图片中解脱出来,然后就可以将责任推卸出去。

    I need prices 至 go up about another $90k, before I can sell and after paying the realtor I would have approx. $60k. If 那 至ok 2 years in 2015 I could sell for $634k and move up, (but 至 what).

    如果费率是5.2%,而我将$ 75K的房屋价格降低了10%,则是$ 734k的房子,我每月的租金是$ 4700 / $ 5000,我们无法应付。

    If rates were at 5.2% and someone put 10% down or $65K on my $634k house they would be looking at over $4000k a month, no way we could even pay 那 much. (so, like so many, we are stuck for a while).

    I know my neighbor’s, nobody makes 那 kind of 钱 or has staying power.
    如果利率上升,并且消费者被迫将太多收入用于住房/租金,那么这将对住房和经济产生负面影响。加上奥巴马政府的照顾,新的税收等等……没问题。

    We just kicked the can far enough down the road 至 re-elect and re-direct blame once again. I see a recession or worse forming in late 2015/2016 just look at the cycle. And so it starts all over, 让’s just hope we can do it one more time.

    仅在美国。

  • 我们开始看到更多(800%)的库存冲击半岛(湾区),包括许多“coming soon” signs. I’d说第二个顶部在这里或附近,并且经济在秋天之前下滑(没有双关语)。

  • “让我控制一个国家的货币,我不在乎谁制定它的法律。”
    罗斯柴尔德男爵

  • 一如既往的出色观察

    那里 is a famous phrase, the reason history repeat itself is 那 we don’听或从过去学习。这里就是这种情况。疯狂的饮食正在继续,经济基本面全都到了地狱。

    多亏了您的Blog,我们中的一些人才拥有智能和客观分析的好处,我们可以铭记于心。

    Doc,感谢您的公共服务!

    推土机

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      不幸的是,基本的经济原理不再适用,市场已完全受到控制和操纵,所以我们能做的就是猜测轮盘何时停止旋转。或gess电梯所在的位置,顶部,底部或中间,只有实际的Sims游戏玩家知道答案,我们’只是《模拟人生》。我们可以猜测并尝试引起关注。或在场边观望,以破颈的速度发财致富。它’太疯狂了。有些人可以说只是想要一个家。想象一下!时代是他们的改变’.

  • 如果美国人曾经允许私人银行控制其货币发行, first by 通货膨胀, then by 通缩, the banks and corporations 那 will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe 那 银行业 institutions are more dangerous 至 our liberties than standing armies…发行权应从银行手中夺回,并归还给人民,人民应归其所有。

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      那 is such an awesome quote wasn’t 那 President Kennedy in his last speech before the banksters had him assassinated?
      If people fully underStood why we are all in this situation right now there would be full on 权利 at GS and JP Morgan and BOA, WELLS ET AL.

      • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

        @琳恩·蔡斯写道:“…那真是太棒了’t 那..”

        没有人知道这句话的来源。期限“deflation”发生在大萧条时期

        报价单:“…如果美国人曾经允许私人银行控制其货币发行…”

        这就意味着这种情况会在1913年美国国会通过美联储建立之时或之前发生。私人银行美联储(Federal Reserve)已经控制了一百年的美元发行。

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      抱歉,我正在用文字朗读,应该阅读“riots at GS….. et al”. Not “rights”。令人惊叹的一个词可以使意义有所不同。

  • 大卫·库珀(David Cooper)-拉斯维加斯

    华尔街股票公司拥有数十亿美元的资产,即使收益率从10%左右增至4%,也将继续投资于房屋租赁。他们将把分散的钱放在其他地方,而1%的政府债券是给傻瓜的。这是房地产的新基准,华尔街与私人购房者竞争。华尔街的结果一直是他们的预期,为什么现在要退出

    • “华尔街股票公司拥有数十亿美元的资产,即使收益率从10%左右增至4%,也将继续投资于房屋租赁。”您显然对物业管理知之甚少…

      封顶费率太低了’将管理成本和维护因素考虑在内,对于现在进入的任何人来说,这都是一个失败的冒险。更不用说一个即将失业的平民,这意味着错过了租金,职位空缺,而且很多人都像堆放狗屎一样对待您的财产。那里’这是没有人大规模租用SFH的原因。市场基本面不容乐观’工作。这是美联储试图对抗重力/清除银行有毒资产负债表的另一种情况。他们可能会在后者中取得成功,但在前者中又会失败。

      • You are absolutely correct about the cap rates. Keep in mind 那 the hedge 资金 DO NOT use their own 钱, it is investor 钱 and borrowed 钱 from the banks themselves. Anyone who buys for cash at this point in this low interest rate market is crazy or only concerned about the fees they are making and not the market risk.

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      I fully agree David it makes one speculate as 至 how long good ROI can be sustained once the over saturation of rental properties are on the market it can only cause rents 至 go down. couple 那 with the fact 那 the large hedge 资金 are certainly hedging there bets on monetized 租s through credit default swaps and here we go again round and round and round.

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      I fully agree David it makes one speculate as 至 how long good ROI can be sustained once the over saturation of rental properties are on the market it can only cause rents 至 go down. couple 那 with the fact 那 the large hedge 资金 are certainly hedging there bets on monetized 租s through credit default swaps and here we go again round and round and round. Who will end up without a chair when the music stops this time?

    • I doubt they can even get 4%. A lot of hedge 资金 didn’真的在底部买– they just bought at a lower than 泡沫 price. Their upfront negative is high relative 至 rental income.
      You can get corporate bonds yielding 5%. Hedge 资金 know this –他们正在寻求住房方面的阿尔法回报。

  • I am starting 至 see 那 home prices in my area are at the break even level of rents vs. mortgage. And it looks like the momentum is slowing down. Investors only want places the yield 5% or more. But the general public is looking at rent parity. The rise was so fast and high this year 那 it looks like we may already be starting 至 peak. This may be over in a year.

  • 全国都有微型市场,在洛杉矶,我们有许多微型市场。从圣盖博谷(San Gabriel Valley)到这里,所有现金的外国买家都在左右抢购房地产,再到时髦的社区’自去年以来,中位数价格上涨了近20%。这将持续多长时间???我们真的不’不知道。但是,只要利率保持在低位而存货保持在低位,就会出现疯狂。我正认真考虑出售我的房屋,因为价格接近和接近2006-2007年泡沫价格。这构成了“bubble” question. Are we approaching a 泡沫? Certainly this is an artificially inflated market given the demand and low inventory. When are jobs and the overall economy going 至 rebound with 20% appreciation numbers? Likely never. So this concerns me as 至 another run up in prices and having the real estate market carry the economy. I’我有点儿无聊,但是’s a great 至 time sell right now if you have any equity or are finally out from underwater. Sell your house and go rent for awhile. Let the masses duel it out and overbid while we wait on the sidelines waiting for the so called 泡沫 至 burst again.

  • 今天要去寻找公寓出租… :…-(

    Cheaper 那 a mortgage but $4K 至 move in and got 至 buy my own fridge and washer/dryer. Will start looking for a home in a year or 2 again…还是投资者会继续将我们定价?

  • 以下是2013年3月每个Redfin在加利福尼亚州奥克兰的数字:

    待售房屋数量(仅SFR):与去年同期相比-56.6%

    每平方英尺平均售价:+ 47.7%,比去年

    http://www.redfin.com/city/13654/CA/Oakland

    库存已经减少了两年半。 Redfin说,现在市场上有266个SFR。

    那里 are about 1,100 REOs being held off market, and another 1,100 or so houses in earlier stages of foreclosure (and, presumably, many more squatters who are in default but who the banks are ignoring).

    真是太离谱了

  • 仅仅因为情况在道德上是错误的, ’t mean we should deny facts. The Fed has shown 那 it will continue ZIRP and other easing measures for the foreseeable future. The only thing 那 will stop this is a significant drop in unemployment or a significant rise in 通货膨胀 –似乎都没有出现。当我不穿’t like it this suggests 至 me 那 the housing reflation could go on for a lot longer than most folks here would like 至 admit.

    Every dollar 那 we lend 至 China eventually has 至 make its way back 至 the US in the form of purchases. If we’重新为便宜出钱为什么不应该’中国人(或替代您所鄙视的其他任何现金充裕的机构)是否会无限期地继续以较低的实际成本购买房地产?

  • 因此,中位数价格上涨。但是,是否有关于房屋价值变化的数据细分为10万美元的增量? ($ 500k-600k,$ 400-500k等。)

    From what I can see, it looks like the $500k+ homes have recovered 至 2006-2007 泡沫 levels. But I’m looking at homes in Valencia/Santa Clarita under $300k 那 are nowhere near back 至 泡沫 levels.

  • CAE和LA的好帖子。我也猜测今年的某个时候涨势会趋于平稳。我们’参与了一笔交易,我们首先以现金购买了房子,然后我们的女儿将出售城镇房屋并套现我们。到目前为止,该计划正在奏效。一世’不过,令我惊讶的是,他们已经收到了一些报价,希望从听说此举并知道T.H.瓦森’尚未投放市场。 T.H.韩元’在5月新房装修完毕并搬走所有家具之前,准备出售。我的座右铭是“五月卖掉,走开!”

  • 如果Tamerlan Tsarnaev被迫与FBI保持联系,而行动又脱离了他们怎么办?类似于以下内容:

    http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/471/the-convert

  • My last listing in Ventura County in Oxnard list price $574K sale price $611K all cash from supposed owner occupant moving from Oklahoma. If you believe 那 this is a real owner occupant and not a straw buyer I can also sell you a nice bridge in Brooklyn. Hedge 资金 and 投资人 are playing dirty once again and have now learned 至 put on an owner occupant face.

  • Everything is getting a little harder for Ben Bernanke. Since 2008, his goal has been 至 keep 资产 泡沫s from breaking, keep 资产 prices from sliding. A continuing slide in housing prices would render US banks insolvent. His plan has been 至 weaken the US Dollar. He knows 那 a weaker Dollar causes anything traded in dollars 至 rise in price. To preserve the prices of risk 资产s (housing, stocks, commodities) he needed 至 wound the US Dollar. Between 2000 and 至day, the Dollar’的价值下降了约20%。

    当然,他的量化宽松政策,ZIRP和ITBB(无限国债购买)政策对美元不利。他的‘printing’(这是一个隐喻)购买有毒资产的新资金—本质上是让纳税人购买有毒资产— 那 no sane investor would 至uch —也是负美元,要求他自己向零利率倾斜,否则他的3万亿美元资产负债表将变成尘土。

    本希望美元贬值。他每周花费数十亿美元来实现这一目标。
    If the Dollar rises, stocks will housing prices fall, and commodity prices, and 通货膨胀. Why is 那 so bad? 为什么伯南克先生如此激烈地争夺更多负担得起的住房,自然资源和食物?

    QE is running out of room, out of time. Bernanke is hitting the wall. His suppression of interest rates 至 weaken the Dollar 至 support 资产 泡沫s and the appearance of prosperity returning…CANNOT WIN —
    难怪美联储董事会在上次会议上沸腾了。甚至那些不支持伯南克的美联储成员’由于担心全球市场崩溃,美国的政策试图在所有这些方面树立好榜样。

    拳碗消失了吗?如果它消失了,那又如何呢?房价会跌到多低?本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)将自己陷在一个角落。现在事情对他来说越来越难了。

    观看美元。如果它继续反弹,本·伯南克将失去力量。
    祝好运!

    • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

      绿野仙踪的@Wizard写道:“…为什么伯南克先生如此激烈地争夺更多负担得起的住房,自然资源和食物?…”

      Because the Federal Reserve is a privately owned corporation 那 is controlled by its stock holders: i.e. Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citi Group, U.S. Bank, etc.

      对于不熟悉美联储的该网站的读者,美联储要求所有国家特许银行购买区域联储银行之一中的不可转让股票。对于地区/州立银行,如果他们想从美联储借钱(以获取这些ZIRP资金),他们也必须从地区联储中的一家银行购买股票,并成为该银行的股东(所有者)。美联储也是如此。

      因此,美联储所做的一切都符合持有美联储股票的银行的利益。

      • 答对了!
        伯南克运用了“失业率低于6%”,他知道它是完整的,而且是BS!他的工作是使会员银行继续运转。

        您想知道伯南克接下来会买什么?看看会员银行的资产负债表,看看有什么“asset” is deep underwater, and 那’s what he’下次再买。随着美元的上涨,如果他的下一次疯狂买入是市政债券,我不会感到惊讶。

      • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

        @CAE, 那 is correct. QE3 is all about unloading MBS’s from member banks so 那 the Federal Reserve can monetize the 至xic 债务.

    • I was under the impression 那 most of the 至xic housing 资产s were bought by foreign pension 资金, and have all been written off. I also thought 那 the banks didn’不得持有或接受TARP / AIG救助。是否知道QE正在购买这些住房资产还是这些其他资产?
      我不’t think most of these MBS have been written off yet. The scale of it was so massive globally 那 it would 至tally sink investment returns across the world. Missing a bond payment or paying a tenth of a percent lower than expected yield gets you murdered in the bond market. 我不’甚至认为根本没有任何本金可以偿还这些资产。东西’s being hidden.

      • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

        @ 激光,您的假设是正确的。

        真正有毒的抵押贷款分别于2004年,2005年,2006年,2007年和2008年发行。抵押贷款于2006年开始贬值。到2008年10月,信贷市场已完全冻结。 MBS’据称在2008年以40美分的价格被出售(如果他们能找到买家的话)。因此,这些几乎都停留在银行的资产负债表上,因为几乎没人能碰到它们。

        30 year 抵押贷款 are typically chopped up into 10 year securities 那 are sold 至 投资人. Fanny Mae, 房地美 and pretty much everyone does it this way. These 10 year securities compete with the U.S. 10 year note (aka the USA 10-year Government Benchmark note).

        由于大部分垃圾抵押是在2004年左右开始承保的,因此这些MBS的本金’将于2014年到期(即证券的10年到期日)。 QE3于2012年第三季度启动了每月400亿美元的MBS购买计划。你决定…

  • 请允许我再次回顾这个主题。
    我们中有些人知道,无论现状如何痛苦,都必须纪念一个通货紧缩季节—量化宽松政策是将财富从(相对)贫穷的纳税人不道德地转移到了富有的人(主要是银行家),实质上是对他们的愚蠢和失败进行奖励。债务泡沫受到各地银行家的鼓励,其中包括美国银行的两位行长格林斯潘和伯南克。量化宽松是对事实的无视否认:在商业周期结束时,大量坏账需要销毁。

    This does not mean 那 such an honoring of 通缩 will be painless. Taking on massive amounts of 债务 is stupid and shows a 至tal lack of leadership, and a lack of philosophical understanding, a misguided naivety 那 expansions last for ever. Expansions do not last for ever. They last for certain amount of years; then the 通缩 also lasts for certain amount of years.

    Nothing in nature grows for ever. 那里 is growth; and then there is rest.
    通货紧缩季节即将到来;
    1)销毁坏账(有毒物质)
    2)储蓄和货币实力的增长
    3)为下一个生长周期做准备。
    Every new growth cycle is symbolized and characterized by a new technology 那 makes the growth possible.
    If you undertand business cycle then you would know 那 we are currently at the age of decline, decay, downsizing, Nature triumphing over man.
    无论美联储最后做什么,DEFLATION都将获胜。
    我们可以’t grow again until we destroy all the bad 债务 we have accumulated for the past 30 years. 我们可以 buy some time, like FED is doing now, but then the FALL is going 至 be even bigger.

    祝好运!

  • 我们有一个缺乏良好供应的问题。许多人在水下并付款。他们想搬家,但他们可以’。那些没有付款但有取消抵押品赎回权的人,银行不会’t want 至 foreclose on all of them at once. Hence, we have a problem with a lack of sufficient supply and the prices go up. Eventually, the prices will go so high 那 a new equilibrium will be reached. Income is not going up, so there is a limit 至 how high prices can go.

    几年后,当美联储平息时,利率会上升,然后音乐就停止了。派对!

  • DHB,我喜欢您的博客。总是那么有见地。谢谢!一世’几年来一直在尝试购买房屋,但一直输给现金买家或出价过高的人。它非常令人沮丧。我觉得如果没有’t broken, I’d能够在我喜欢的萨克拉曼多地区购买一所小房子,而不必通勤上班。我做得很好,年收入在70美元左右’,具有良好的信誉,并有10-15%的固定首付(取决于房屋状况)。我今年40岁,拥有博士学位,还有大约$ 40k的未偿还学生贷款。一世’我开始认为我’我永远买不到房子,除非我结婚,否则我们将有一笔决斗的收入。美国的房屋所有权梦想怎么可能变成白日梦?我做对了所有事情,但还不够!

    • “duel income” – you mean you would marry a professional duellist? I thought 那 had been outlawed.

      • 盖乌斯·格拉丘斯(Gaius Gracchus)

        我想他的意思是“dual income”.

      • 哈哈哈!你是对的。我的意思是双重,而不是决斗。希望我的浪漫伙伴关系赢了’不要那么有争议。虽然我 ’我听说破坏婚姻关系的一种方法是一起买房。

    • 在美国梦神话中见乔治·卡林…

    • 那么,你并不孤单。我有自己的小企业,每年收入超过$ 300,000,零债务(无任何债务),每月完全支付信用卡,我的配偶和我的FICO得分在800’s,我们有大约200,000美元的首付,我们只想要一间介于250,000美元和350,000美元之间的房子。

      尽管我们可以批准贷款,但我们拒绝为房屋多付钱。期。而且我们地区的房屋价格过高。

      所以我们租….

      • 我也是这么感觉的。我可以获得贷款,但我不想支付50万美元购买60年代建造的精简住房’s, 那 needs a 至n of work. In the past few years, there has only been one house sorta worth it in my area. It was a 1500 sf 3 br/2ba SFR on 1/4 acre, kept well, built in the 1980’s for $450K.

      • 普雷托里安语

        好那边’谨慎用钱,然后便宜。

        利用您的财务状况,您’re just being cheap. Nobody on this board wants 至 overpay. But I suspect you are the kind of person 那 thinks everything is overpriced, no matter how low the price is.

        With your income and downpayment, you could easily buy a nice house and not have it affect your lifestyle, but you refuse 至 do so out of some theoretical conviction 那 the house *ought* 至 be much cheaper.

    • 我不’不管您拥有多少学位,您都必须考虑双重收入而不是双重收入。但是结婚很可能是决斗,所以’无论如何,这还是一种可爱的文字游戏。

  • 所以我听到大家’s talking about 投资人 buying up properties. Is 那 happening in the west side? I understand 投资人 could be targeting areas such as Inland Empire, but people aren’不在IE中定价。他们’re being price out of desirable areas such as the west side. One popular city 那 Dr. HB often brings up is Culver City.

    所以我继续使用Redfin,针对卡尔弗城进行过滤,仅针对房地产类型“House”,以及的销售记录“Last 3 months”。有超过40所房屋出售。一世’d希望在realtor.com上看到其中一些租金,但这些物业都没有出现。实际上,在realtor.com上,如果我搜索“房屋/公寓/联排别墅”对于卡尔弗城(Culver City),仅出现11个租金,是2006年销售量最高的单位。由于6%的交易成本,投资者不只是购买和持有房地产。

    那哪里’s the evidence 那 投资人 are buying up properties (particularly SFR’s)在西侧并将其出租?我肯定不’没有看到任何东西,因此我不知道 ’不能将投资者的活动解释为卡尔弗城等城市的家庭收入中位数与中等房价之间的差异。

    有人愿意反对我的观点吗?

  • 给读者和医生的问题。您现在出售还是暂时租用还是推迟观察价格继续上涨,并试图为市场定时并在大约6个月至一年的时间内列出您的房屋?多谢您的回覆。

    • 洛杉矶 , by all means, wait. I assume 那 you do not want 至 buy another home, if you do, it will go up as well. Also, there is much 至 choose from. Now is not a good time 至 buy. Why do you want 至 sell?

    • 布兰克芬勋爵

      洛杉矶,您的销售动机是什么?如果纯粹是财务问题,而您正试图把握市场时机,那么您可能要三思而后行。众所周知,租金很高而且还在上涨。没有人知道有限的存货将持续多久。因此,如果出售了,您可能会在租金中停留比预期更长的时间。将出售地点,获得租金,搬迁然后再购买再搬迁的所有费用加起来…that’大量的金钱和麻烦。

      没有人知道这将如何进行,但是所有这些都需要包含在等式中。

      • 我的销售动机是基于房屋的欠款。我终于达到了积极的估值,并得到了高额的付款。我可以’t refi由于欠家里的款项。摆脱高昂的支付和租金,而这只是开始重建成本的一半,这将是我的沉重负担。我们的目标是节省总费用中的钱,然后为以后的首期付款省钱。另外,我们希望缩小尺寸并重新开始。在市场如此火爆的情况下,我认为我们实际上可以在房屋上赚钱,并且感到我们不再依靠高抵押贷款和开支过着每月生活的感觉。是的,租金成本较高,您有搬家成本和押金等,但是’是时候改变了,这个市场似乎已经成熟了…

      • 布兰克芬勋爵

        洛杉矶 , sounds like you have no intention of keeping your house for the long term. This is definitely the time 至 sell it, I highly doubt we will see much more appreciation from this little bounce. This actually might be the easiest time in history 至 sell a house, take advantage of it. Remember, just year and a half ago nobody wanted anything 至 do with housing. I remember looking at places 那 were literally sitting there for months on end. Good luck.

      • @洛杉矶

        我想到的是:暂时的搬家之苦,寻找好的租金,却不知道结果如何(您会在几年内花更少的钱买到房子,还是愿意租很多年?)。我认为您几年内购买不到的机会很大。我为此感到挣扎。如果我知道这意味着在未来5年内减少$ 100到$ 200K,我现在就卖出去。问题是我们不’不知道。因此,这是一种风险。有时我认为,除非您真的喜欢,否则离开家时,留在家里的风险更大。

        另外,我喜欢安定下来,但我现在所住的财产不是我想要的财产。我来回去尝试去爱我自己的地方’我想摆脱这个困境并继续前进。

      • @洛杉矶

        Another problem in my situation is 那 I’m not sure if I’d可以出售而不必投入资金或做空交易。它’s 至o close in my situation. I am pretty sure 那 if I could walk away in the positive, I would do it and rent for awhile. Worst case, housing in your desired areas keeps increasing and may have 至 考虑 another area, perhaps in another state.

  • 我认为许多人默契地感觉到某种鞋子会掉下来。经济崩溃;我们’re due, pandemic; we’相应地,环境灾难;我们’重新到期。全力以赴再次到期。多久?我想很快…

    • I am continually amazed 那 the shoe hasn’t dropped yet. Makes no sense. The more time 那 goes by without the shoe dropping, the more polarized I become. That is I waffle back and forth between “下降将是令人困惑的” and “这一切将在我的余生中得到支撑”. And, not having a real clue the sector(s) 那 will drop is the most disconcerting.

      • +1 萨迪。由于鞋子,袜子,裤子和内裤的路线,其逻辑上的精疲力尽现在应该已经下降,但是逻辑(或在我们的相关讨论中,今天适当的资产定价和未来的可预测性)已经正式消失,并且曾经说过,这是美联储/政府对银行的操纵游戏。现在,它比以往任何时候都更加生气’当您得到现金(首付)的双重打击变成废话(耶伦是伯纳克,小),并且没有存货/价格过高的房屋时,尤其是在So Cal,您可以成为一个储蓄者/出租人。就像是沙尘暴的海啸…。但是低利率。

        这些超低价格应至少使任何租房者“consider” buying. Then you need 至 look at your own finances, the local houses on the market and ask yourself what else will you do with your down payment you I rent for 2 or 3 or more years. Cash sucks and will likely (although I know some want 通缩 but the Fed has already said its their biggest fear so they will fight it like crazy) be worth another 20% less in a few years. If you dont believe in the 资产 泡沫 of homes, will you really love the 资产 泡沫 of stocks? Many people talk 金, but are you really going 至 buy physical 金 and hope its up in 3 years or when you want 至 buy? And there’这是所有事情的根源,也是犯罪,以及为何尽管不相信市场,但人们仍然参与进来。美联储强迫风险厌恶的储户在由于量化宽松或资产泡沫化而变废为宝之间做出选择。因此,只要掷骰子,享受赌博;很有趣!

      • 布兰克芬勋爵

        FTB,好帖子。美联储/政府的政策迫使许多人’购买(包括我自己)的手。租金每年都在上涨,我的现金首付正逐渐减少,我不愿意在市场上赌博或全力以赴。当机会来以等于或低于租金平价的价格购买时,我终于放弃了。与其他人不同,我预计未来十年不会有任何升值…it’如果发生的话,只是肉汁。如此低的固定利率每月付款,我’m受通胀保护并拥有政府将保护的资产类别的一部分“till the end.”房屋是避难所,但也有很多附带好处。无论您决定做什么,都祝您好运。

  • 量化宽松深渊

    根据计算的风险,大量的投资者活动可能会在未来几年内推动房价上涨。

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/housing-some-thoughts-on-investor.html

  • 在马林(Marin)的这里,我们有房地产经纪人打电话给我们,在我们的门上留下了便条(一个人留了一小袋超级便宜的手镯饰物,上面饰有随机设计,其中两个是钢琴形状的)–真的,谁会想要他们?如果您有一个漂亮的魅力手链,那么它们看起来便宜又舒适’t silver…and what’s with the charms –-与卖房的目的/联系是什么?),通常会降低‘引擎盖,希望找到可以出售的房子。我的意思是说真的,挨家挨户问人们是否要出售?滚开,我’房客,白痴!我希望郁金香躁狂症能尽快结束,我可以’带着火鸡秃鹰特工不断盘旋,希望能赚个钱…

  • Regarding 投资人. They will have limited impact. This is for one simple reason: 首页 occupants are not created out of thin air. Every time a family rents, 那’s one potential buyer off the market. Everytime a family buys, 那’一个潜在的租房者退出市场。住房终极收益追随收入和通货膨胀,目前都不高!

  • I would monitor the conditions 那 have contributed 至 the price run up. Those being lack of inventory and low interest rates. As long as those two conditions continue, hang on. However, once either moves significantly and more importantly, 那 looks like the new trend, be ready 至 list your house on the low side of the market value 至 sell fast.
    只需我的2美分,物有所值。

  • 电影《飞机》的一个好报价!总结一下

    “他们买了票,知道他们要进入什么-我说-让他们崩溃!

  • 阿克,

    Very good point regarding 投资人. If 35% of the current purchases are being made by cash, we should see a flood of inventory on the rental markets in the immediate future. Either 那, or the properties get retrofitted with cheap finishes and granite countertops and put right back on the market.

    无论哪种方式,都必须付出。您是对的,只有这么多人在寻找居住的地方。

  • So if the Fed and banks manipulate upwards the price of homes, but there is not a significant contribution of liars loans and NINJA loans, but predominately loans 至 folks who can pay their 抵押贷款, why would there be a crash? I could see the market leveling off, but crash, 我不’t know.

    • 现在可以保证大决战。这完全取决于我们支持的时间范围。诚实的态度将带来世界末日。撒谎,欺骗,承担更多债务,使货币贬值,支撑股票和房价,在市场背弃债券时支撑债券…。这是试图将世界末日推迟到…我猜下届政府。

      如果经济奇迹般地增长,我们将逃脱世界末日。但是经济可以’增长直到它清除所有坏账,这将触发世界末日。承担更多的债务是假装这不是’是这样。幻想。也许我们可以摆脱困境…困境。 GDP,GDP,GDP。它没有工作。

  • 我在大学里的共享计算机上寻找文件’的研究生计算机实验室。本机已连接到扫描仪,同学们在不知不觉中将各种个人文件遗留在机器上而没有删除它们。

    I noticed one was an offer 至 buy a house, and curiosity got the better of me. The offer was for over $330,000 and the down payment was $4000. 那里 was something about another loan for $12K+.

    This person would have 至 be a grad student because no one else can get in 那 room. I didn’t know this person by name but they probably make no more than the typical stipend for being a teaching or research assistant, which I believe is in the $20s. Few students work full time and 我不’记得在文档上看到多个名称。

    Of course 我不’不知道结果如何,但是’s just mind-boggling 那 after all we’过去,人们(和他们的房地产经纪人)甚至可以考虑以100万美元的1/3购置4笔豪宅的房屋。

  • 我的用户名去哪儿了?

    Does anybody remember my thesis from last year (or a few years ago) on here 那 if investor penetration in a market became large enough, it would reduce inventory turnover and therefore put upward pressure on housing prices? It was under my old user name, which was something like ‘afez’ or ‘andrewfez’ or some variant on 那. I think the last time I mentioned it was on the 文章 about how Vegas was oversupplied with 投资人 and it was pushing down rents there. When was 那?

    One of the more enthusiastic commenters belittled me on 那 one with a reply 那 went something like, ‘OmgomgomgNeverBeenABettlerTimeToBuyOmgomg’ or some variation of 那.

    好吧,这里’还有一些想法:

    1) Once hedge 资金 saturate a local market, 那 doesn’t mean all other markets are also saturated. America is a pretty big place. And outside the coastal regions and big cities the smaller markets are a bit more healthy (where income and prices are in line with each other). 那里 are places whose prices are intimately coupled with interest rates 那 saw little 泡沫….

    2)可能是对冲基金,例如洛杉矶或拉斯维加斯的短期波动,或者它们在任何地方’关于目前。但是如果情况变糟– really bad –就像对基本面的调整和对美元贬值的丧失信心一样,我仍然认为,对一个有钱人来说,最好的位置是土地大亨,现在大个子们到处都沾了水。并建立了所有联系并可以轻松购买房地产,这可能是一个长期趋势。

    抱歉,我有一点要说,但我’我整天不工作,可以’不记得那是什么……

  • 我想知道“funds” buying housing are 资金 那 are tied 至 employee 401(k)s. I mean it would make sense. A smart investor wouldn’t购买捆绑的住房基金,但401(k)基金经理可能会这样做。有人知道我的假设有什么优点吗?

    • 我的用户名去哪儿了?

      那里’401k中的一个安全选择(我不’t上有一个位置),称为Pimco总收益Instl。谁有类似的东西‘房利美单身家庭待定4%2042-01-01’ and Treasury Notes in their 至p 10 holdings. In fact treasury notes at different rates are all over the place in 那 one.

  • “(Daily Breeze) Personal 让ters and even baked goods can win-over a hesitant seller”

    How crazy is 那? Things have changed. Cash certainly is part of every deal, but in the old days we used drugs, alcohol and prostitutes 至 increase our competitive edge. If your an Urban La shopper in the market for a depression era breeder box, use Tea and Skittles and Booty. That is my suggestion for frustrated first time home buyers.

  • 黛娅·杜(Deja Doh)

    If everything is so rosey, why is it 那 when I drove down the coast this afternoon from Ventura/Oxnard, through Malibu, 至 Santa Monica, all I saw were for sale signs on these gourgeous houses. PCH is lined with foresale signs. 那里 getting out while the getting is good.

    • 黛娅·杜(Deja Doh),

      同意,从千橡市(出租)开始,我每天从加纳(Kanan)带PCH进入Century City,最近注意到沿途的待售物业数量增加。作为有动力的买家,而不是傻瓜,我的妻子和我一直处于待售状态,直到明年,因为我们无法忍受拒绝现金报价和过高的要价。授予它不是中西部,但我知道房屋的价值,不用说这些房屋相对而言是$ HIT。几个问题 … Why isn’还有更多的新房屋建设吗?人们为什么这么愿意为要求而付钱?地方政府是否也在与伯纳克(Berake)和大银行共事?

      • 黛娅·杜(Deja Doh)

        萨克拉曼多的居民及其地方政府的人员试图对国家进行微观管理’自从摇钱树诞生以来已有30多年的经济发展(70年代初期每年的财产税翻番)’s)被提案13削减了。它’都是误导。他们能’t say “let’s limit development”,但是他们可以以保护环境的名义伪装它。房地产业也与他们同在。如果这是美国职棒大联盟,那就是勾结。是共谋。

  • 艾米·里奇(Amy Rich)

    It’s a lot of bank, government, and investor manipulated smoke and mirrors. Ashes, ashes we all fall down. The 泡沫 will burst. SHORT LIVE THIS GREEDY BS market, NOT long live. Let some nice folks buy a freakin house!

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