What will be the impact of 现金 投资人 slowing purchases in California? Large 投资者销售 drop 31 percent year-over-year in California. 1.2 million homeowners underwater.

The market in California is starting 至 splinter off into two distinct segments. First, in 低er priced areas the pullback of 投资人 has caused inventory 至 steadily rise. In places like the 内陆帝国 there doesn’t seem 至 be any urgency 至 buy anymore. In less desirable areas of L.A. and OC you have seen homes sit on the market as sellers try 至 ask for delusional pie in the sky prices. This segment of the market is feeling the withdrawal of 投资人. The second segment impacts smaller 主要 markets and prices have reached 新 peaks in some of these areas. Sales are dramatically down but house horny buyers are willing 至 stretch 其 budgets 至 whatever a bank is willing 至 lend them. 投资者在拉 回到这里,仍然有大量购买。趋势非常明显,那就是大投资者在加利福尼亚购买的房屋不多。 Year-over-year large 投资人 have dropped 其 buying activity by 31 percent。考虑到已经发生了非常薄的销售量,这是一个大问题。当您在许多市场上运行数字时,您会看到很多领域 各种指标的定价过高。那么,随着投资者继续回调,市场将会发生什么?


First, there has never been a year where 30 percent or more of all sales went 至 投资人. That is, until 2009. Since that point, for half a decade over 30 percent of all sales in the state of California have gone 至 the “all 现金” crowd. Wall Street was the first house horny buyer leveraging cheap rates in a lustful attempt 至 chase yield. This is how you have the odd mix of a falling homeownership rate in conjunction with higher home prices.



This is a big deal since 投资人 have been a primary buying group since 2008. Also it should be noted that the above data will only look at MLS sales and not off the book auction sales which are a large part of the big 钱 crowd. Some thought that once 投资人 pulled back that regular buyers would step into the fold with massive incomes 至 purchase these 高价棚屋。那根本没有发生。该州各个市场的库存都在增加。人们继续购买,但到2007年足彩预测明显疯狂时,人们的购买量一直很高。由于精神错乱,您还会看到更多房屋的足彩预测降低,这在2013年本身就是一个奇怪的现象。事实证明,足彩预测确实很重要,而投资者正在按数字计算,而不是基于心不在man的口头禅和“买东西总是很有意义”的言论来购买房产。



Or we can ask the hundreds of thousands in the state that lost 其 止赎房屋 if running the numbers makes any sense. It absolutely does. So if that is the case, does the rise in inventory mean anything? Does the major drop in sales volume mean anything? Investors are voicing 其 opinions and 好 deals are rare 至 find like a diamond in the rough.

Inventory in the L.A. County area is up 15 percent year-over-year. In the spring of 2013 you had house lusting zombies loading up in minivans going 至 open houses as if 他们 were following a rock star. 您 had families bringing in multi-generations 至 beg sellers 至 give them a taste of that sweet World War II built shack. The only thing missing was a t-shirt saying “take my 钱 please!”

加利福尼亚是一个繁荣和萧条的市场。几年来我们一直在蓬勃发展。多年来,这些趋势足够多,这种模式非常相似。销售放缓,库存增加,足彩预测达到上限,最后是调整。足彩预测将下跌多少?很难说。就像很少有人看到 投资者引领的2013年两位数住房淘金热,几乎没有人认为在加利福尼亚进行住房改正是可行的。目前,人们的心态是市场将“放缓”任何手段。数字已经告诉我们,市场已经开始放缓。

Those thinking that we will somehow go into a 稳定 mode fail 至 look at history:


The one 新 variable that we have this time is the big 钱 buying from Wall Street courtesy of 低 rates. The Fed is already telegraphing higher interest rates and big 钱 is finding better homes for 其 钱 instead of single family homes for rent. One thing is certain and that is there is never a dull moment in California housing.

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87个回应 至 “What will be the impact of 现金 投资人 slowing purchases in California? Large 投资者销售 drop 31 percent year-over-year in California. 1.2 million homeowners underwater.”

  • 真想上去fo-eh-vah !!!

  • 这个职位对房地产市场的分化是正确的。黄金海岸地区继续看到足彩预测上涨,并且频繁出现多次报价。


    I have never seen this occur. It seems as middle class home 拥有者 are falling further and further behind from a move up into a 主要 area. 我不’我不知道该怎么做,但看起来该模式会保留一段时间。

    Clearly, one is best 至 overextend themselves 至 get into the 主要 area. If you are unable 至 obtain the financing for a 主要 area, your next best option is 至 rent.

    • This seeming divergence happened at the beginning of the end last time. Less desirable areas started 至 see pullbacks, and everyone in the nice areas insisted 他们 were immune. Undesirable areas are just the first dominoes 至 fall.

      • GenXer在2007年的顶峰时期,一切同时都在放缓。这次,沿海海滩物业有多个优惠,而对内陆的兴趣不大。这是非常不同的。

      • 好的观察,GenXer
        泡沫市场实际上是在2006年春季暴跌并在2007年爆发的& 2008

      • “这次,沿海海滩物业有多个优惠,而对内陆的兴趣不大。”

        I’d必须查看特定属性才能了解您’re argument precisely, but I think Doc is right that the market is 真实ly bifurcated in most markets. 您 have the market for the households up 至 150% of local median (which is strained) and you have the market for the truly 钱ed.


        那当然’s the rub. Can the valuation of the bulk of homes fall without a ripple into the larger economy? In 2006-07 the bubble was nationwide, and RE was a big piece of what kept the economy firing after the tech crash. This time the bubble may 真实ly be limited 至 the coasts, and the midlands may continue 至 churn along.

    • “I have never seen this occur. It seems as middle class home 拥有者 are falling further and further behind from a move up into a 主要 area. 我不’我不知道该怎么做,但看起来该模式会保留一段时间。”

      It’s called ‘财富转移’ and it’s happening right now, in 真实 time, right before our eyes.

    • 底部首先掉出来。

    • 总学士学位。你一定不会老。继续对自己说“it’这次不一样”如果等于“Ommmm”但是,如果没有,您将需要进行现实检查。而且 ’就像好医生说的那样。我已准备好在2007年在南部沿海OC地区购买,足彩预测低至900年代(称为“a steal” at the time). Didn’买。几年前,我看到了同样的房子要出售,足彩预测为$ 685K。这是一个非常好的地区的海景。杜德,不错的地方一世’d说您将找到一些避风港的人’t tasted what you’从您的拳头服务。对于我们当中那些曾经(无数次)见过这些的人,请享受库尔援助。

      • 我爱上了Koooooool-Aid !!!这次不一样… Because 丰富“Red”中国人会买“prime” areas fo-eh-vah!!!!

      • 海景单身家庭通常非常昂贵… 低 900s sounds far 至 o cheap.

    • I think that the middle class is living in a dream where 他们 think that 他们 can afford more than is possible. This is obviously a result of marketing or even propaganda of the mortgage providers. It is already confirmed that people are overestimating 其 ability 至 pay 抵押。作为一个社会,我们应该从以前的错误中吸取教训,并尽快向所有人提供重要的经济知识。如果我们不这样做 ’t,我们将一次又一次看到相同的情况。

      • 人们不’t learn. That’s why a guy goes in for a quadruple bypass and the doctor says hey you gotta stop smoking and the guy gets wheeled out if the hospital and lights one up. There are plenty of existing AND up and coming morons buying the drivel that a lot of 真实tors are spewing. If you’re a 真实tor ITS NEVER A BAD TIME TO SELL OR BUY. Because no matter what you’如果交易成功,我们将获得该佣金。
        I bet the very same or people who got foreclosed on will pick up and try 至 get in that house 至 现金 in on that equity ASAP. There are enough loons out there that will overestimate 其 purchasing power and screw themselves.

      • 罗布,你没错,人们在丧失抵押品赎回权之后回到了低谷。查看任何信用建设论坛(myfico,信用额度,城市数据),然后一个又一个的人讲述丧失抵押品赎回权的故事,试图弄清楚他们如何能够尽快回到过去。

    • Across the street in the Pacific Palisades, a perfectly 好 1900 sq ft home on 9,000 sq ft close 至 the village sold as a $2.2 million TEAR DOWN!

      Not sure how 他们’re going 至 make 钱 on that, but let’看。街道上6000平方英尺的房屋降至460万,没有人购买。

  • 这将与2007年一样结束。但是,这一次,’不能快速反弹。只是时间问题,是1年还是10年。

    • 这次的差异之一将是阻止市场系统性崩溃所需的TARP数量。肯定会超过第一次的7000亿美元。真的让我感到惊讶的是,人们愿意为高价资产买单的记忆有多短,以及这次是如何’将会有所不同。每个人(包括住房公牛)都知道这将严重结束。可悲的是,就像第一次来一样,造成这种情况的人受害最少,因为普通公众将成为通过失业,高税收等方式支付账单的人。…。如上所述,这只是时间问题。

      • 当大银行破产时,为什么还要另加TARP’有危险吗?住房泡沫2.0达到了目的,四大银行的敞口已大大降低。这次没有死猫反弹。数学和基础知识又回到了住宅RE。 2015 = 2008

      • 虚无主义者,你一定不会’是不是BAC和花旗银行?看今天’s 新s:
        BofA stock tanked because of 其 Math error. Interesting note about Citi failing the stress test also. This is not about the Math, but rather about what the banks are hiding and/or lack of ‘Mark 至 Market’.

      • 零– “数学和基础知识又回到了住宅RE。 2015 = 2008”


      • RE:Janum

        银行已经转移了足够的库存,并通过标记将其余的隐藏起来,以至于幻想不需要TARP。我没有’不会说他们是有偿付能力的,但是你不会’不需要另一个TARP。银行也需要足彩预测下跌,以便它们可以再次开始放贷。停滞的市场无人为之。正如华尔街成​​名GG所说“Bulls make 钱, bears make 钱. pigs get slaughtered”


        I’假设您忘记了/ sarc标记。但是,如果没有,您如何否认市场力量正在重新确立自己的地位?我们’重新看到周围的一切。 FEd与那只看不见的手作战并输了。

      • 零– you forgot “这次不一样” and “房地产只能上涨,因为“real”” and “你要住在某个地方” and “the 新 正常” and “the Fed is “printing”所以我们会有恶性通货膨胀– just like Japan” and “rich “Red”中国人会买全部“prime” properties forever” and “there is a lot of “money” aka “cash” aka “debt” out there” and “回顾历史1987– 2014 where everyone got 丰富with 真实 estate” and “holding 现金 is losing 钱” and “where else are you going 至 put your 钱” and…

        I will only turn off sarc when the bullshit clowns stop posting stupid bullshit. Until then this is the 新 me.

      • @Nihilist:您的评论是“当大银行破产时,为什么还要另加TARP’t at risk?”. My points are:



        –顺带一提,我知道美联储已暗示加息,但我不这样做。’t see how 他们 will control interest on the national 债务. I wonder, is there a plan in the works 至 pay off the 债务 soon before rates go up? The Fed seems 至 have painted itself into a corner, but 他们 always seem 至 do the illogical thing 至 keep this mess churning.

    • 亚努姆写道:>> –顺带一提,我知道美联储已暗示加息,但我不这样做。’t see how 他们 will control interest on the national 债务. I wonder, is there a plan in the works 至 pay off the 债务 soon before rates go up? The Fed seems 至 have painted itself into a corner, but 他们 always seem 至 do the illogical thing 至 keep this mess churning. <<

      When the banks have offloaded enough of 其 债务, it sure would suit 其 own purposes (Gov's 至 o) 至 crash the housing market, and write volume 新 抵押贷款 at 5%+. Housing owned outright by older 拥有者 and property-investors, is very little use 至 the banks. There is no one paying the bank any interest on any 债务.

      更好的方法将大量房地产强行推回市场,并以低于房屋足彩预测50%的足彩预测在房屋上书写大量新抵押贷款'今天重估。仅占5.34%'s double the principal back over 30 years for the lenders. Also great for Gov in taxes, jobs, and 新 buyers at much 低er prices having a bit more 钱 left 至 spend in the economy. Housing owned outright, and those who are equity rich, is NO USE TO THE BANKS.

      It's going 至 be 好 times, apart for complacent older and equity-rich home-owners who haven't 现金ed in during this window. Inventory has been razor thin, all but rolled out away, but prepare yourself for a future tsunami of supply as 拥有者, especially equity 丰富owners at super-bubble prices, panic 至 现金 in.


  • 在2014年向“坚硬的坦克”进发!

  • 如图所示,近25%的CA“owners” can’t get out with a gain (after RE commissions). 人们不’除非生活事件迫使他们出手,否则不得以零利润出售。加州的经济以及失业率都已稳定下来。这些“frozen in place” 拥有者 will put a constraint on inventory, which will be a big factor helping keep a floor under prices.

    • 或者,有75%的可出售房屋所有者将随着时间的流逝而剩下25%的’损失不断增加。关键是工作经验差,信用评分低,没有储蓄,家庭构成低的年轻一代。如果住房永远高居不下,这些人将选择退出并找到非传统的住房安排–公社,蹲式,多代住房。

    • 供给灵敏的足彩预测真空理论的问题在于,它假定买主没有’没有其他选择,所有供应商都赢得了’在足彩预测上竞争。没有卖家时叫醒我。

    • “People don’t sell at zero profit unless a life event forces 其 hand. CA经济趋于稳定, as has unemployment rate.”

      Yeah, right. Constant rise in the cost of living and many/most 好 paying jobs in SoCal directly or indirectly related 至 the Stock Market/RE ponzi. Retail is cratering everywhere. If things are “stable”工资和消费为何崩溃?即使是那些会亏本卖出的人,也可能更喜欢取消抵押品赎回权。


      • “many/most 好 paying jobs in SoCal directly or indirectly related 至 the Stock Market/RE ponzi.”


        如果你是最认真的,你’re 100% wrong.

    • “CA经济趋于稳定”



      • // @厌烦的BS:你 ’绝对正确。地方经济正在趋于稳定。高薪雇主将离职。在这里做生意太贵了。不’不再有意义。房屋定价业务。

      • 嗯,丰田收拾行装了吗?我好疑惑….

      • 我读了这篇文章(或也许是它的另一个版本),但它指出进入CA的成本很高。是的,他们再次提出了所有这些税收和法规废话,但这不是’他们给的原因–这是高成本。它’s 真实ly about attracting workers. Schwab is moving workers out of SF. If successful companies like Toyota and Schwab have 至 pay workers insane amounts just 至 live comfortably, then something is messed up. Companies cannot afford 其 workforces in CA and that’s saying something.

    • 一听到“…应该在足彩预测下保持底线”或类似的东西,我知道’拐点…下。那些想要发言的人说了些什么,以说服自己这是真的。它’看着这很有趣,就像火车残骸缓慢移动一样。有人会说“市场稳定,我们有六个月的供应量,这表明市场健康。”好吧,众所周知,当您从A点(供不应求)转到B点(供过于求)时,会有一个时间点,您处于两者的中间。也就是说,在供过于求的路上,这个数字会在某个时候达到(然后消失)“normal.” It’就像是每天两次正确的时钟破裂。让’s只看供应保持多久“normal” or “average.”

      • “会有很大的收获!” changed 至 ,
        “适度的收益,这对可再生能源来说更健康” which changed 至 ,
        “天气使市场停滞” which changed 至


    • Reverse mortgage baby! Unlock that equity!!! Time 至 party!!! Whooohooo!!! 什么? 您 say you need equity 至 get a reverse mortgage? That is crazy talk. We need legislation that allows all home 拥有者 至 have equal access 至 equity regardless if it is there or not…

  • 量化宽松’t work. The rush of 现金 is beginning 至 宠物er out without enough greater fools 至 continue the scam. Banks are solvent “yah”比以往更大“oops”.

    2010年代,我们仍在努力降低经济效益吗?财富效应在哪里?“…计算结果显示,自2009年经济衰退结束以来,家庭每花费1美元的财富,就花费1.7美分 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-17/wealth-effect-failing-to-move-wealthy-to-spend-cutting-research.



  • 经济学家和分析师越来越发现,在不承认过去两年的房地产市场活动主要是由刺激和非常规需求而非最终用户基本面驱动的情况下,很难解释和拼命地试图使显着的房地产需求破坏趋势合理化。在这样做时,他们围着圈子说了与他们的陈述相矛盾的关键指标。当然,这是因为过去两年没有承认“不是持久恢复应该是什么样子”,他们全力推销了5到10年的梦想,并对此感到惊慌’s ending after
    2.这只是与2007/08相似程度的另一个实例…then 他们 relented.

    Sacramento CA Feb house sales the 低est in 6-years, down 18% YoY. Supply up 88% YoY meaning demand destruction can’是由于供应不足。

    The last few years of insatiable all-cash investor demand has influenced house prices much the same way as the exotic loan bubble did. That is, all 现金 投资人 controlling the market — buying without a “抵押贷款房屋足彩预测调节器” — were able 至 run up prices way beyond what the average end- user could 真实ly afford. The next phase for this market is 低er house prices until end-user fundamentals and house prices reach a point of equilibrium.
    The next phase for this market is 低er house prices until end-user fundamentals and house prices reach a point of equilibrium.


    • 我听说过NAR… I mean NPR this morning that 新 contracts are up so that means how-zing is back baby! Quick, buy now or forever be priced out!!!!

      • 我在考虑最新的NAR报告中有关MoM数据的最新啦啦队长,以及从中得出的有用结论很少。

        让我想起了一支运动队’s had a few shitty past seasons, currently a few months into the current season and already not looking 好, then 他们 barely eek out a win on the most recent game against some other marginal team and all of the fans are ready 至 proclaim a championship outcome.

  • Albertsons-Safeway合并是North Cal的另一个重要工作决定,所有产品的分销将以太田爱达荷州或Cal。由于加州的商业环境,爱达荷州的决定中有一个较小的参与者告诉我。

    所有州的另一个担忧是,它们与联邦政府的长期战斗’t sticking 其 nose in every aspect of life. This makes for uncertainty for states 至 try 至 improve job outlook, this translate of course 至 citizens putting off most major , job security along with poor pay increases or lost of job is 真实ly the issue.

    The Fed and Banks have a great thing going, banks are awash in 现金, pay no return on deposisys

  • Land is and always will be the Achilles heel for most of Cal 新 房屋建筑商. Very little left that makes sense in terms of location and profit returns.

    转售市场可以捕获其中的一些销售,但是完全水下的可以’t list and the take a small loss or break even homeowner has nowhere 至 buy once 他们 sell.


  • 内陆帝国, always a worry for many of these hard working middle class people. They seem 至 be a catch 22, 他们 work in auto distribution and many spin off companies along with a 至 n of small business 拥有者hip.

    Any bad 新s has these folks on edge everytime, 他们 sit in traffic, think about if the job or business 他们 own is 稳定( it isn’t)。他们担心什么?

    稳定 ( it isn’t),并支付抵押权。

  • ”美联储已经瞄准了更高的利率…. ”

    I’ll believe that when I see it. Yields higher than 3% on the 10 year Treasury would push 抵押贷款 into the 5% area and create even more pressure on affordability. All of the major central banks are terrified of deflation in highly leveraged 真实 assets ( residential and commercial 真实 estate ). They will collude 至 gether 至 prevent a spike in long bond yields for this reason and a host of other valid threats, like the financing costs of the ever growing Federal 债务.


    • We need interest rates 至 go negative. I mean 真实ly negative like “-5%” for a home loan. The banks pay you 至 borrow 钱. That would make a lot of sense in this unicorn fart fueled e-con-oh-my…

    • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

      @zigzag,由于ZIRP,银行没有发行抵押贷款。如果银行不将贷款退还给房地美(Freddie Mac)或范妮·梅(Fanny Mae),则按30年期抵押贷款的4.5%计算,它们将破产。因此,在利率上升之前,银行为固定利率抵押贷款提供资金是没有意义的。这就是为什么’s either all 现金 or GSE backed 抵押贷款 for the last few years.

  • demand will decreases, inventory will explode as homeowners will try 至 unload 其 homes and prices will crater

  • 我租的房子在周六去了一个开放日。可爱的房子,但足彩预测比其2011年的最低足彩预测高40%。去年,他们也试图出售它,比现在的足彩预测高出50,000美元。它没有’没有咬人,所以他们在11月将其从市场上撤下。几周前刚刚重新上市。

    代理开始了BS演讲:“足彩预测不会下降,因为IT’这次不同”. I asked how is it different? She said well the crash happened because banks were not lending, now its easier 至 get a loan. I said yes but incomes have not risen and the job market especially in Sacramento is not 好. This woman clearly has no grasp of the forces at play over the past 2 yrs, and I suspect nor does she care. She just wants 至 sell it at whatever inflated price she can.


    • 对你有好处。一世’ve been doing the same with our 真实tor. “我的目标是今年让您和您的家人入屋。” Sorry honey, it ain’t gonna happen until prices come down 至 真实ity. Meanwhile, I’可以节省和生活。一世’除了时间,我什么都没有,我不相信“good 新s” that 美联储是spewing though 其 various outlets.

      • 节俭地生活:我也是。我丝毫不急于放弃我在最安静,最好的街道之一上的甜蜜,非常舒适的出租房’ve ever lived on.




      • 你没有很多时间。生命短暂。

      • “你没有很多时间。生命短暂。”



        这恰好适合“产生紧迫感”一袋花招。这个想法是要利用大多数人’ sense of accomplishment and innate fear of death. Implicit 至 this, of course, is the concept that 拥有者hip of some thing is the hallmark of personal achievement.

        因为当你’重新回到那个死亡床上,你’ll be sorry you didn’t buy enough 真实 estate 至 make you feel better about the whole dying thing.

    • “足彩预测不会下降,因为IT’这次不同”

      Yes!!! Exactly!!! This is the 新 新 新 新 新 新 新 新 新 新 新 新…

    • 萨克拉曼多

      高5向房地产经纪人反手评论!让他们赚钱…感觉他们无论如何几乎都做不到,不妨将它们当作出气筒使用。当我和妻子在卢​​森(Folsom)寻找时,通过织布机一直到奥本(Auburn)…我们遇到了同样的白痴,好像萨克拉曼多是海湾地区,而目前的足彩预测是“good”并将继续保持上升趋势。他们还像购买立体声音响一样对待花费近40万的费用。他们从未认真回答过严肃的问题,只是想对我们对金钱和可再生能源的看法发表一些傲慢的言论。…点,所以我用我的钱说话… no sale….

      该地区的库存一直在上升,没有多少买家在咬(我知道春季库存一定对吗?)… no …这意味着我们在该地区的足彩预测方面已经达到了买卖双方的僵局…情绪有些分歧…卖家开始发现已经发生了停滞状态,而买家则避开并以虚高的足彩预测退缩。如果没有’t say plateau … i don’不知道做什么。也没有说它会崩溃,但我’直到今天,我也没有错过任何大收获…所以不妨找到我想要或不买的东西,直到我’我财务上准备好了我想要的东西。是的,量化宽松和宽松货币政策绝对支撑了这一市场。不自然的话会在1年内少报20%以上的增长。可持续发展?我们’ll see. They can’t进一步降低利率,并且没有足够的技巧来保持上升势头。对我而言,这表示基本面将很快再次变得重要。

      无论如何,只是想回应一下我们’ve看了该地区的许多房屋,却一点都没有留下深刻的印象。我们放弃现在寻找,因为至少对我们来说,拥有对锁定我们不想要的东西并不重要’恋爱了30年。与来自美国其他地区的人们交谈时,这并不是一个真正的“American”该地区不再有生活方式…只是一些投资者和投机者想要的版本。我想您之前曾在高中毕业后在Iron Point的Folsom上寻找那些新房子…我的妻子和我嘲笑谁买那些… 他们’在2500平方英尺的地段上几乎可以容纳40万套公寓。必须在海湾地区寻找那些认为’s a 好 deal…


      • 悲伤/疯狂的部分是我租的房子实际上比我定价过高的房屋好/更好的街道/条件更好’在过去的12个月中都看到过。

        The 真实tors make out I’m missing out not leveraging myself 至 the hilt on a 钱 pit that needs lots of $$$ pumped into it 至 make it somewhat nice. I do not agree.

      • 您 nailed it GenY,

        I’m an agent, and it’几乎像是中西部人的口头禅。我喜欢通过观察那里发生的事情成为有远见的人。

        这回’s different…and 没有人 is naive!

      • 另一个北欧

        在这里潜伏了一段时间,想跳入这场对话。我们’我已经在Sac山麓下寻找了大约6个月。我们’我也搁置了一切。足彩预测太高了。 $ 450k的典型房子,不用了,谢谢…keep it.


    • 该死的事情是,如果她实际上打给你,说那所房子便宜了35%,你’d知道这所房子的价值甚至比那还低,’t buy it anyways.

  • 所有那些说工作要离开CALI的人都是错误的。加州可以改变它’如果事情开始太快了,明天的政策明天。仅大麻使用合法化将带来大量新业务。 (只要每个人都做’不能在后院放种房子)。

    • Oh 真实ly…看起来丰田公司正在将其总部从托伦斯迁至德克萨斯州。本田正在放缓向俄亥俄州的迁移。日产很久以前就离开了。


    • 我想知道U-Haul和Budget Truck Rental是否会同意。

      Rick Perry claimed that it was cheaper 至 rent a truck 至 go from Austin 至 SF vs the other way around, therefore implying that supply and demand 真实ities were proving Austin’的吸引力。我将其作为验证这一挑战的挑战,确实他是对的。因此,我查看了U-Haul上的各种城市配对’的网站上发现,平均而言,将卡车从美国另一个主要城市运回洛杉矶的折扣为23%。



      “Rent one-way and keep more 钱 in your pocket.





      顺便说一句,这不是’t the first I’ve seen of this “请帮助我们将设备带回加利福尼亚”适用于Budget和U-Haul。实际上,U-Haul已经“Phoenix 至 LA” specials – $99 on 24″ trucks.

      These businesses have the data and the experience 至 model these promotions. Last time I checked, 他们 are profit motivated.

      文字在墙上。它’很明显,加利福尼亚已经坐拥桂冠,烧光了蜡烛。看,我不知道’t live in Texas and never have. 唐’不想。但这不’这并不意味着将我的头埋在沙子里是有意义的。真是的

      至于丰田的决定,日产是2006年的领头羊– before SHTF –卡洛斯·戈恩本人则认为“Tennessee has significantly 低er 真实 estate costs…”, so… Honda, you’re next.

      • 施瓦布将一群员工搬离旧金山。今年有1,000个,后来有2,200个。


      • This could also mean that U-Haul makes more 钱 on higher-demand intra-city and inter-city rentals within California than with interstate rentals across the sparsely populated Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. It could also mean that lots of small importers are carrying loads 至 sell in other parts of the county. I’我不是说CA不’有一些结构性问题,但我不会’任何政客所说的话,都不是为了自我服务。

      • 我曾经这样做“u haul test”在最后一个泡沫中,并相信您是正确的。 Budget网站给我的报价是,从Austin到Santa Monica的足彩预测为$ 230,但从Santa Monica到Austin的足彩预测为$ 1000。很明显,他们非常需要洛杉矶的卡车。

        但是,我’ve also noticed that TRAFFIC is now as bad as it was during the boom times even though incomes are 低er and gas prices are quite a bit higher. From what I see 我不’t think it’只是排名靠前的1%。也许人们在三个最低工资工作之间开车?

        Any other evidence of a net outflow from CA cities 至 the desert southwest? Perhaps the 好 Doctor could research that a bit for a future piece….

    • “所有那些说工作要离开CALI的人都是错误的”
      我是说工作要离开加州,而我没有误。阅读任何论文,自己了解事实。拒绝不’t help anyone.

      Just 至 day Toyota announced that 他们 move 至 Texas. They are not the first company 至 announce that and 他们 are not the last. They are part of a continuous trend.


      唐’告诉我天气。蒂华纳的天气比美国其他任何地方都要好。没有强劲的经济,它看起来仍然像底特律。丰田并不是一个孤立的案例。您可能会拒绝所有您想要的– the 真实 income for californians, adjusted for 通货膨胀 was going down for about 6 years now. It continues on the same slope. If you adjust it for the REAL 通货膨胀, not the cooked up numbers by the FED, then the adjusted income is in free fall.


      • Yeah, but there are great fortunes 至 be made 翻转 houses so we never 真实ly needed those jobs in California.

    • 约翰尼·犹他

      哈哈哈,那么,现在玛丽·胡安纳(MARIJUANA)是拯救卡利的奇迹创造者?别管你了’吸烟,也给我们休息一下。 PUFF PUFF PASS哈哈哈

  • 你们做什么 ’没有意识到你的状态已经完成。我们特定系统的严重缺陷之一是,当某个区域过于成功时,土地将被垄断。在使用信贷的过程中,多次多付一些实际值得的东西并不是取得长期财务成功的途径。一旦最后的泡沫破灭,CA将经历长期令人沮丧的下跌。它可能需要运行几年,但仍需保持警惕。更好的机会将出现在其他地方。唐’不要相信炒作。胶合板盒子仍然只是胶合板盒子。

    • 但是那里’这里有很多文化你知道,民族餐馆… because you can’在其他任何地方都无法获得。

    • 在过去的四个月中,许多加州人似乎已经退房了拉斯维加斯和凤凰城,他们离开时没有购买。当然,他们为鞋盒Cal住宅买了个不错的钱,然后出了事,发现了漂亮的12英尺高的吊顶房和精美的平面图。问题是,他们想偷这些房屋,而卖家说,请坚持住。

      如果加州人认为他们将以120万美元的足彩预测在圣何塞出售1300英尺的房屋,然后去这些城镇以40万至50万美元的足彩预测购买4000英尺的房屋,并且进行了所有升级,那么顶部的邮编就忘记了它是宝贝’t going 至 happen.

      Go back 至 Ca. is the cry in these 至 wns, sure 他们 haven’t sold, but 他们 also continue 至 be looking in and not out.

      • 那么你’再说拉斯维加斯和凤凰城也被高估了。

      • 罗伯特,我不’认为卡利人正在检查那些房屋和那些谁’ve sold out for !.4 million. I think 他们 are refugees looking for a place 至 live that is reasonably priced. I guess 他们 won’不再在拉斯维加斯找到它…

  • 公司可能会搬离洛杉矶大幅削减加州的原因之一是住房费用的不合理!今天早上(洛杉矶西部地区)在我家门口发现了一张传单,以一张35万美元的足彩预测提供了一张床,一个浴室的公寓。因此,单身或年轻夫妇必须拿出7万美元现金才能拥有一个居住在西侧的地方。我认识的大多数年轻人(30多岁)仍在应付155,000的大学债务。除非您以某种方式成为祖父,否则没人再负担不起这里的生活。如果您在城市中的任何地方,仅凭停车费便无法访问该镇的部分地区。去世纪城? 40美元。需要去医院综合医院看医生吗? $ 12。我可以’等不及离开这里。

  • Realtors in Beijing get a 2.7% or less 真实 estate brokerage fee. Makes you wonder what additional value U.S. brokers give with 其 exorbitant commissions 他们 charge.



  • 量化宽松深渊

    首页 拥有者hip rates have plunged as we all know on this blog…但是我们还知道租金在上涨吗?

    …此外,尽管尽管住房多头有令人生畏的承诺,但尽管家庭形态继续内爆(在随后的文章中有更多报道),但他们仍然必须意识到房价的短暂回升与有机增长或稳定的消费者无关与美联储有关’s balance sheet, the now effectively finished REO-To-Rent program, and illegal offshore 现金 parked in the US, 美国人s have 至 live somewhere. That somewhere is as renters of Wall Street and other landlords. As the next chart shows, the median asking rent has soared 至 fresh records and hitting an all time high of $766 as of the first quarter….


  • 我想与Cal相比,任何东西都被低估了。至于维加斯和菲尼克斯市场,水下卖家要亏本甚至收支相抵才能从地下赚钱,因此他们考虑到了房屋定价。买家当然不’不必在意您过去的错误,因此会与您站在一起。

    The grossly underwater are not listing, 他们 are the ones in the most trouble, 他们 have a long wait.

  • 将其留在阴郁的厄运现场,以进行虚假宣传,以至于怎么可能会失败…



  • Itwasntme

    The great escape from Cal. makes for a grass is greener scenario. The variables are 真实ly now in a case by case basis. The one size fits all is not in play anymore, moving 至 another state must make sense in every aspect.

    我们离开了Ca。 17年前,我以为丹佛是赢家,’七年后,我们走了。我们有能力搬到我们想要的地方,因此该决定并非基于经济学。对于大多数情况并非如此,您可能会被卡在一个我想说您不知道的地方’不想醒来。

    钙它是非常独特的,它有很多很多的弊病,它还牵扯着人们住在这里或回到那里的想法。我们再也不想再住在丹佛了 ’t为我们服务,但有时我们希望Ca。会回到很多年前的样子。我们也许会回来,但它赢了’到目前为止,我们最后的安息之地是我们除Ca以外的第二最佳居住地。现在我们对自己的选择感到满意。

    人们需要列出一个清单,如果肯定的结果超过了负面的结果,那就去做,不要’t ever look back.

    • 离开CA六次去更好的地方(丹佛,博尔德,迈阿密,德国等),然后回来了七次。这个月,我和一个朋友一起去看了德克萨斯州奥斯汀附近的房屋。我不想再离开CA,但是在下一次破产之前,我可能会成为CA的房客。我来接受CA ’像野火和泥石流一样,其繁荣/萧条周期是地形的一部分。您需要管理风险,但要期待这样的事情。积极因素仍然大于消极因素。

    • 优点:天气很好

      缺点:几乎没有食物’t nice
      Racking up 债务 至 keep status quo isn’t nice
      可笑的生活费用是’t nice
      看着大公司离开国家是’t nice

  • 红Fin: 1 in 4 regret buying 其 home. Lots of interesting statistics about home buying regrets.


  • 迪克·丹尼斯(Dick Dennis),《地产绅士》经纪人和发行人

    Having been a broker since 1971, I have seen you renters seem 至 know all about 真实 estate, time and time again. Go back 至 see how 其 doing 10 or 20 years later and you find 他们 are still waiting for the market 至 “深入了解它的归属。”万事通’没有可以撒尿的锅,但是他们’ll tell you when is the best time 至 buy some 真实 estate. So what else is 知道了?

    • 迪克·丹尼斯–自1971年以来的房地产经纪人说:“So what else is 知道了?”

      为什么这么多的房地产投资人看起来语法和拼写都很残酷– it’特别是在英国房东/财产投资者论坛上,因为他们一直以更高的足彩预测购买商品,例如今天他们在今天为裤子加油时’主流报纸报道英国的平均房价将从今天开始’在20年内,其大型气泡的价值在40万至160万美元之间。在寒冷多雨的小岛上,自然资源也很少,这就是简陋的简陋住房。快点让您急需的房价暴跌持续到美国,这样您就可以将英国从泡沫足彩预测和投资者白痴的暴政中解放出来。

      It’s like the idiots have the very best in housing, oldies and younger people with no fear of mortgage 债务, and the younger smart are 至 tally punished by outrageous HPI –一波长波的房屋足彩预测高涨。


    • 约翰尼·犹他

      您问Tricky Dicky还有什么新东西吗?好吧,显然是误会“their” for “they’re” 和“knew” for “new”。自1971年以来的经纪人’很明显为什么。那些可以’t do, teach…and those who can’教书,成为代理人/经纪人/经纪人。

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