The majority of home purchases are now being done by 现金 buyers: Destroying the myth that 现金 buyers are a small portion of the market. 60% of homes sold in 2013 came from the all 现金 crowd.

市场上流传着一种奇怪的神话,即现金购买者人群在某种程度上只是市场的一小部分,就像广阔的购房海洋中的一滴水。这个幻想的梦想变成了一个幻想,即住房市场由于家庭整体需求而自然上升,而实际上,这是由投资者利用房地产市场驱动的。 美联储人为的低利率。华尔街的资金泛滥成灾。甚至有传言,由于住房是一个以保证金为导向的市场,很显然,现金购买者正在驱动市场。也就是说,在任何给定时间,所有房屋中只有一小部分在市场上出售。但是,高盛以外的其他人的分析表明, 60% 2013年所有房屋销售中的百分之一由现金购买者推动。也就是说,中产阶级在很大程度上被淘汰了这一游戏,并已成为房地产市场中的少数派。让我们更仔细地研究数据。

现金买家仅占市场的一小部分?

我认为,现金购买者在市场中占一小部分的神话引起了人们的一种印象,即住房市场“有组织地”依靠经济的潜在力量上升。实际上,市场一直在蓬勃发展,因为热钱在争夺自己,以吞噬所有可用库存。现在发布的数据证实了市场的投资者份额有多大:

GS housing 现金

“(华尔街日报高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)经济学家的一项分析显示,去年和2013年迄今为止,售出的房屋中有一半以上是无抵押融资的。

分析估计,在房屋市场崩溃之前售出的所有房屋中,约有20%为“全现金”销售(或按美元数量计算约占销售的30%)。但根据经济学家惠山,马蒂·扬和查理·希梅尔伯格的说法,在过去的七年中,全现金销售的份额增加了一倍以上,增加了30个百分点以上。

Think about this more carefully.  Even with the 中位数 home price of $214,200 families still need 至 finance the purchase.  The above chart clearly 表明投资者的钱 确实推动了整个住房市场。美联储提倡的低利率是在帮助普通家庭的伞下进行的,但实际上,它们已成为银行,对冲基金和华尔街的下一个热钱来源。 2013年所有购买中有60%由现金拥挤推动,这一事实令人发疯(从20%的崩溃前水平提高了200%)。 《华尔街日报》的文章继续说:

“There’s no exact way 至 know who is responsible for all of these 现金 purchases, though they are likely 至 include some combination of 投资人, foreign buyers, and wealthy homeowners that don’t want 至 go through the hassle of getting a mortgage before closing on a sale. Mortgage lending standards have sharply tightened up since the housing 泡沫, with banks scrutinizing borrowers’ tax returns and bank statements 至 verify their incomes and the source of their down payment.”

We’ve talked about this for years but the current percentage is stunning.  It is safe 至 say that 您 r mom and pop American buyer is not eating up all these properties for all 现金.  Just take a look at the 现金 buying in 拉斯维加斯:

拉斯维加斯有现金的购房者

这一令人难以置信的趋势也有助于解释抵押贷款申请的大量减少,但实际房屋销售的增加:

抵押应用程序和销售

资料来源:ZH

Some have argued that the “all 现金” crowd isn’t 真 all 现金 which may be true in some transaction but the above chart clearly shows that mortgage financing has fallen dramatically since 2012 (below pre-crash levels).  This of course has occurred at a time of record 低利率.  So the idea that low rates would spur 您 r regular 乔 and Jane 至 buy homes doesn’t seem 至 be occurring.  Unless 乔 and Jane have hundreds of thousands of dollars sitting around (which of course, is not the case).  Of course this also helps 至 explain the dramatic falling of the home ownership rate as well:

房屋拥有率

然而,这种无情的投资者购买量已经挤走了各个市场的人。即使在加利福尼亚州,这里的房地产价格急剧上涨,并且某些地区的房屋销售达到了创纪录的水平,现金购买人群也达到了创纪录的水平(在该国最昂贵的州之一中,购买量大约占30%)。

So much for the myth that the all 现金 crowd was a small portion of the market.

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96个回答 至 “The majority of home purchases are now being done by 现金 buyers: Destroying the myth that 现金 buyers are a small portion of the market. 60% of homes sold in 2013 came from the all 现金 crowd.”

  • 这就是将不良贷款从破产的银行系统中撤出,以及清算大男孩欺诈性出售的CDO抵押工具,以及将贫穷的傻瓜变成出租人,因为他们无法利用市场上的价格来支付费用。“cheap”因不良信用和/或没有高薪工作而赚钱。美联储通过华丽的鞭子,大投资者的自由资金和零利率将资金从传统储蓄中剔除,从而造成了泡沫。人类历史上通过财富转移造成的最大劫案尚未结束。石头上还有几滴血。然而,随着利率飞涨和美联储失去控制,这可能都比大多数人预期的要早得多。

    • 大多数现金投资者最终需要出售才能实现回报。他们能’只是继续卖给其他现金投资者—最终,他们需要出售给有抵押的个人。现在金字塔计划显示出降温的迹象,请观察发生了什么。

      拥有房屋曾经是人们想要永久性居住地时所做的事情。银行不会’不要让别人买一个地方’负担不起。现在,房屋所有权是拉斯维加斯赌场。无尽的外界力量控制着比赛—美联储控制利率;控制抵押的银行;对冲基金控制库存;房地产经纪人鹰派新闻(当价格下跌时‘最好的购买时间。’现在价格上涨了’s ‘最好的购买时间。’ In case 您 haven’不管市场上发生了什么,现在总是‘最好的购买时间。’)

      谁愿意在这种环境下买房?为什么不租一个好地方,让这种绝望表现出来呢。不用了,谢谢。

      • 实际上’是不正确的。只要收入按年赚钱,’s what matters.

      • Yoblah is correct, and 您 and 您 r fellow renters make it work for us 投资人.

        我没有’支付现金,但确实将30%至35%的现金放入了我作为投资购买的两个止赎房屋中。清理完这些单元后,我租了下来。我的净租金收入足够高,我可以’加快了我的抵押付款,以便可以在7到10年内还清。之后,我将享受退休后的净租金收入。它肯定比在银行赚取.25%的收入要好!我死后,我的妻子将有收入,我们的家庭最终将决定如何处理他们。

        Remember, not all 投资人 plan 至 flip homes.

      • It can be more complicated than either of 您 are leading on. If there are new investment opportunities that arise which offer a better return, and current holdings become relatively less attractive, an investor then has an incentive 至 lock-in any realized gain by selling and in the case of income property, forfeit the income stream.

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      您 ’完全正确,我从2009年初开始就一直在警告并警告人们这一切当然已经过去了,那时几乎没有人知道我什至在谈论他们仍在忙于责备那些敢于买进卡车的侍应生和侍应生。美国的梦想似乎是我们的世界金融崩溃是他们的错,现在高兴地看到人们关注,银行家的所作所为,他们如何做似乎几乎是常识’这样做,并且至少自罗马帝国崩溃以来,这是人类历史上最大的抢劫案。我在这里唯一想到的是所有现金购买者,尤其是那些可能确实有十至二十万美元的银行存款,然后将其全部放到一所房子里,’由于操纵而价格过高,因此他们不仅失去抵押贷款并申请破产,’失去现金,这当然是银行家的目标!

      • FWIW,我仍然要责怪那些服务生和一般的人,他们买了超出他们所能承受的范围的东西。没有他们,这一切都不可能发生。

      • It all reminds me of the game Monopoly. Anyhow, it is refreshing 至 see comments from people showing understanding of how the bankers and hedge 资金 and such were the main cause, as opposed 至 all the bashing of individuals that previously occurred.

      • 约布拉…..You’re kidding right?

        如果我有200万美元,并将其借给在情况恶化时没有损失的人…..I放款人是无知的傻瓜,而不是一个冒着一点点风险冒我的钱而失去自我的人。那些能够用我的钱玩游戏并用我的钱冒险的人(如果我是放款人),但如果变坏了,则什么也不会损失一点,实际上是聪明的人。

    • 吸盘,吸盘,吸盘….everywhere.

      美联储和银行再次这样做。

      他们将人们吸引到他们想要我们购买的金融产品上。他们剥夺了在储蓄账户中赚取任何利息的能力,并将我们带入他们的窝点…股票市场和住房市场。

      They love all the 现金 buyers. It gets all the risky loans off their books onto 您 rs. They know that they are going 至 pump and 倾倒 this housing market. Notice they are not stepping up 至 the plate 至 help Americans secure loans in their banks. They don’t need 您 r loans…他们得到了美联储,他们可以相互进行债务交易以获取利润。这是肯定的事情…他们上次房屋倒塌几乎被烧毁了,他们也不会被烧毁-他们知道不会再为银行纾困了。它’s a big game of “hot potato” and they want 至 make sure 您 are holding the potato in the end.

      Real estate inventory was held off the market so that entry level homes and 公寓 prices would appreciate and lift them out of the red 至 the black, essentially making everyone think that we are in recovery. They scare 您 with a rise in interests rates so they can keep this over inflated inventory moving. They don’不想成为房东…they want 您 至 feel good about real estate again so they can sell 至 您 . They relish multiple offers and all 现金 offers, they are back baby!

      他们的计划奏效了。价格迅速上涨,他们迷恋投资者,以期将全部现金投入。银行不’t want 您 r 钱 sitting in the bank…they want it in their housing market, their stock market. They want 您 all in. When real estate prices drop again no one can walk away from their loans if they pay all 现金. Bummer for 您 , 您 just lost equity. No skin off their backs. They know these prices are not in line with any real index out there. Real estate is inflated and they inflated it in the first place and they are wicked good at these games.

      唐 ’t play their game. There will be another housing crash in the next five years and at that time 您 will be able 至 buy again with pennies on the dollar when the people will be desperate 至 sell in order 至 survive yet another Fed/banking bait and switch trick. If interests rates go up 快ly it will implode this market even faster…keep 您 r 现金 on the sidelines and wait for this 至 happen.

      Watch out for 您 r 401k 钱 and stock 钱 至 o. This is an inflated market also and when it crashes, it crashes hard. It’最好是提前1周零6个月零两年,而不是迟到一天…is 至 o late. You don’t have 至 be all in the market or all out. Take some risk off the table. Cash is not sexy now 但它 will prove 至 be a lifesaver when the market crashes. They want 您 至 think that 您 are stupid not 至 be in their juiced housing and stock markets where they make the rules.

      • 预测现实检查

        @Christie S等— except here’s the thing: 您 MAY be largely right but 您 r timing could be way off. And that matters.

        I’ve been reading ZeroHedge for about 3 years and all of that time their 文章s and commenters have been saying the sky is falling any minute now. Guess what? They have been flat-ass wrong. And anyone who sat on the sidelines missed incredible gains. The stock market is somewhat a casino but, there are companies trading of real inherent 值 and growth potential, as there always have been.

        哦,我不知道’回想一下我读过的一个博客,该博客曾预测2012-2013年房地产库存短缺或随后的价格上涨。

        因此,大多数在线人类预测变量的记录一直很糟糕。值得深思。

      • 点好采取的预测现实检查。

        如果没有很好地理解支持这些信念的人,谁也不能盲目跟从任何人。我的进入只是为了给出我的观点,研究结果的不同观点。即使是最好的最好的也只能说什么时候不会发生。您必须保持警惕。

        If 您 put 您 rself in the shoes of the banks who want 至 make 钱, it is a little easier 至 see how they may mislead 投资人 or not fully disclose their strategies for making 钱. They don’在博客上说明他们是谁。

        财富永远不会消失,它只会被转移。

    • “现在大多数投资者相信美联储的三件事,即货币和利率。他们认为美联储正在人为地将利率降低到低于“normal”水平。他们认为这样做的过程中,美联储已大大增加了货币供应,他们认为美国处于法定货币体系。

      所有这三种信念都是错误的。美联储可以绝对控制的基准利率之一是对存入美联储的储备所支付的利率。自从美联储于1913年成立至今一直为零,该比率现在为25个基点。如果美联储将零利率国债利率保持在现在的水平,则将比现在更低。现在,最短的国库券利率可能为负。

      支付准备金利息,再加上对银行的补贴,即为无息活期存款提供免费的无限制存款保险,这将使国库券利率保持正值。如果没有这些政策,国库券的利率实际上将是负数。为了在美国存入资金的安全,中国人和世界其他国家都愿意为此付出任何代价。纽约银行梅隆公司已经对大额存款征收0.13%的费用。

      认为利率会上涨的投资者可能会回答说,储备支付的利率是一种特殊情况,而量化宽松导致的货币供应大量增加,必然会导致美联储逆转利率而导致利率上升。这种观点的问题在于,真正的有效货币供应量仍远远低于其2007年的水平。

      Money is what can be used 至 buy things. Historically 钱 has first been specie (gold and silver coins), then fiat 钱 which is paper currency and checking accounts (M1) and more recently credit 钱. The credit 钱 supply is what in aggregate can be bought on credit. Two hundred years ago 您 r ability 至 take 您 r friends out 至 dinner depended on whether or not 您 had enough coins (specie) in 您 r pocket. One hundred years ago it depended on the quantity of currency in 您 r pocket and possibly the balance in 您 r checking account if the restaurant would take checks.
      Today it is mostly 您 r credit card that allows 您 至 spend. We no longer have a fiat 钱 system. Today we have a credit 钱 system. Just because there is still some fiat 钱 does not negate the fact that we are on a credit 钱 system. When we were on a basically fiat 钱 system there was still a small amount of specie in circulation. Even 至 day a five cent piece contains about 5 cents worth of metal, but no one would claim we are still on a specie 钱 system.

      法定货币很容易计量; M1在2007年为$ 1.376万亿,在2013年5月为$ 2.535万亿。有效货币供应是法定货币和信用货币的总和。信用货币无法精确计量。但是,当一个在加利福尼亚州从事草莓采摘业并在最好的一年中赚了14,000美元的人能够在没有任何欠款的情况下获得740,000美元的抵押贷款,并且私募股权公司可以以200亿美元的杠杆收购来收购像Clear Channel这样的公司时,而且基本上没有钱下降,信贷货币供应量显然比今天高得多。对信贷货币供应量的合理估算是,2007年为70万亿美元,而如今为50万亿美元。

      有效货币供应量是传统法定货币总量加上信贷货币供应量的总和。因此,尽管罗恩·保罗(Ron Paul)和里克·佩里(Rick Perry)恰恰相反,但在过去的几年中,有效或真实的货币供应量急剧下降。
      http://seekingalpha.com/article/1514632-federal-reserve-actually-propping-up-interest-rates-what-this-means-for-mreits

      • WTH are 您 talking about!?

        Next 您 will be saying 通货膨胀 is 真 low, GDP is 真 growing, and unemployment is dropping. The Fed has our best interest in mind, and anything can grow 至 the sky!?
        Have 您 ever heard of our fed/treasury buying its own 债务?!?
        当债券持有人变得明智时,它赢了’无论Ben船长和公司做什么。
        The game will be over and 您 will be eating 您 r words!

    • Well stated fulano. I 至 tally agree with 您 r analysis.

  • 格雷格·伯顿(Greg Burton)

    The only controversial aspect of this is: are these 现金 buyers being funded by the narco-traffickers (banking drug cartel)?

    • 您 nailed it greg burton.

    • 恩佐·米莫(Enzo MiMo)

      很可能,而且矮胖的联邦政府都没有多付钱“regulators”甚至朝那个方向看。

      在中苏格拉,肯定有40多年的历史&南美麻醉药品的利润发现,高层公寓/酒店/办公楼项目是清洗大笔20美元钞票的理想方式。考虑一下–LLC或其他类型的私人公司。是在建设一个项目的整个过程中创建的,数以百万计的美元在18个月内流经该实体,并且没有一个项目属于SEC,FINRA,FDIC,OCC等的权限…即使是IRS,也只对输出端感兴趣,而不对输入感兴趣。

      Duh Trump的名字可能在Miami-Dade沿3(4?)高层’位于豪华的海滩/海滨,但我保证每一个都是由不同的工作公司架设的。 (现已折叠),特朗普没有人’的后台正在对“investors”.

    • 恩佐·米莫(Enzo MiMo)

      另外,考虑一下由麻醉药品利润引起的通货膨胀的危险性/失真性的增加,即由于其利润是如此之高(400%?)。“dirty”方面,即使他们的主角(对冲基金)在其房东创业中损失了25%,他们’仍然遥遥领先,现在可以自由移动“clean”其他地方的钱。这或许可以解释自2011年以来发生的一些超额支付和竞标战争(以及相关的RECKLESS /疯狂行为)。

      是啊…至今没有超过7年的高层项目启动…字面上堆积的粗麻布袋现金… security issues…也有发生火灾的危险,哈哈。是的,我想得越多,似乎越不可避免地要使麻醉药品流向可再生能源市场的替代载体。

  • 哇!这就是为什么我使用“什么?”的原因作为我的把柄。无论是乔乔六人组合的抵押贷款,还是对对冲基金经理的TBTF银行贷款,还是对鳍状肢的短期商业贷款,还是对富人的个人贷款,融资都是融资。谁能想到所有这些人的资产负债表都承担同样的责任呢?

    The point that everyone seemed 至 miss is that this housing increase is false because of the financing not because of the 现金! The 便宜的 钱 is financing the 泡沫 more than the 现金 chasing returns. Has anyone followed the stock market over the past 5 years! 什么 is the cost of ownership of a stock versus a house? I agree the stock market is most likely going 至 crash in the future but so will the bond market, the housing market, the tulip market, etc. This is why I argue that the Fed can never ease up on free 钱. It is the only game in 至 wn. This is why I laugh at the idea of closing the GSE’s, the only mortgage financing game in 至 wn for those who still have a mortgage.

    自坠毁以来没有发生任何实际变化。尚未恢复。当市场认为美联储将逐渐缩水时,市场将陷入困境。我们并不是在谈论这种大规模的货币刺激措施的消退。我们正在谈论的是这种大规模货币刺激措施史诗性增长的放缓。 “好”的经济新闻使这只耶稣从债券和股票市场中逃脱,这都是因为我们正在谈论这种史诗般的增长放缓。真???这只是踢球的真实史诗游戏。

  • 那我们有泡沫吗???会弹出吗?现金买家不使用杠杆….doesnt杠杆导致气泡弹出???这个市场很疯狂,看起来像’才刚刚开始。新的建设项目预售整个阶段,第二阶段的价格比第一阶段高50,000美元….just go buy 2 new homes sit back 1 year and sell them, 您 can make $100,000….this is insanity…but it’不利用精神错乱?是吗?试图弄清楚这一切我的头很痛….

    • 黑石可能正在使用“cash” 但它 is OPM, not 现金 they had sitting around.

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      Start with the foundation then go from there. I unfortunately 至 ok down my website that educated everyone on how this robbery is done. Its done with everything not just houses. Begin with watching the documentary Money As Debt. A good 101 financial education starting place. Prepare 至 have 您 r world revealed. Kind of like eating the red pill in the Matrix. GL it’一个深的兔子洞。

      • 如果没有别的,应赞扬“债务产生的金钱”的生产者在引发许多人对此主题的批判性思考过程时所提供的公共服务。另一方面,演示文稿中存在一些漏洞,尤其是在银行将利息收入中的资本投入到经济中时。

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      附言:我确实在我的YouTube频道的播放列表中发布了纪录片@ http://www.youtube.com/TheeLynnChase if 您 want 至 check it out.

    • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

      @Appraiser CA写道:“…现金买家不使用杠杆…”

      Au contraire, 现金 buyers do use leverage.

      这里’杠杆的工作原理:
      1.) Cash buyer pays for a property with 100% 现金.
      2.) Cash buyer then refinances 至 get 现金 out of the property. Depending who the 现金 buyer refinances with, they can pull 现金 out any where from 95% 至 80%.
      3.)现金购买者然后移至下一个物业。
      4.)转到步骤1,重复此过程。

      This mortgage 快 allows 现金 buyers 至 exercise maximum leverage.

      • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

        什么 I meant is “quirk” not “quick”.

        我未能澄清的是,再融资有多种形式。的“cash buyer” can refinance out of a 100% 现金 purchase by selling bonds, shares and/or getting a loan. This is where the leverage comes in.

        So, all 现金 purchases are not what they seem 至 be.

  • 当前在住房市场上正在酝酿的是A)前所未有的B)与2004-2006年的情况大不相同,每个人都购买了0英镑的期权ARM抵押贷款不支付任何利息。

    最主要的现金购买者市场所带来的最糟糕结果将仅仅是在房地产市场上创造出硬底。现金买家唐’不要离开家。现金买家唐’如果他们能提供帮助,则以重大损失出售,他们都将在损失之前将其出租。

    This is 真 about screwing those with bad credit or not enough income and forcing them 至 rent FOREVER.

    • I’ll bet Section 8 is going 至 go up 10 or 100 fold over the next decade or two while subsidizing all these new immigrants or the new illegals. I bet the best places 至 have rentals is near fast food, convenient stores or 您 r big box stores where they need 便宜的 labor 至 keep the party going. Might need 至 start checking on the new Section 8 vouchers being created and also how many new landlords are accepting these type of renters. Then we will likely see what the real plan is.

      The successful rentals will always be in high traffic areas and is located strategically where they will rarely have a unit un-rented for a long time. Those are 您 r FOREVER rental locations. Other places good luck, but there is only so many places that are desirable rentals.

    • 现在这篇文章很有道理。坚硬的底部将使许多家庭将来很难买房。

    • 我不同意。您忘了房价定在“margin.”

      在加州大约有1500万辆汽车,即使这种疯狂持续了三年,也只能进行150万辆汽车的交易(CA的年销量约为500,000辆)。在这样一个假设的3年60%现金购买记录中,只有大约80万将以现金购买。

      剩下的1400万个在这一狂热时期从未购买或出售过,其中许多属于老化的婴儿潮一代,需要缩小尺寸。

      什么 is again forgotten here is that houses are priced on the margin and their only hard bottom is set by financing / wages.

    • 与抵押贷款持有人相比,现金购买者将更容易亏本出售。崩溃将更加严重。这已经在欧洲发生。

      • 与购买股票的人没有什么不同。如果他们下注不好,就没有什么可以支持投资者的。为什么房屋要有所不同。看底特律。

  • “The low rates promoted by the Fed were cast under the umbrella of helping out regular families but in reality, they have turned into the next hot 钱 play for banks, hedge 资金, and Wall Street.”

    是的,但是我’d想看看有多少家庭的再融资利率在4.5%或以下…这可能对数百万人的现金流产生了巨大影响。由于他的滑稽动作,那些在2009-2011年期间可能成为手袋的人应该在他们家的一个特殊角落改变bernanke。

    • I’ll bet that number is lower than 您 think. How many qualify for a lower interest rate refi if they’陷入水下,或者他们的收入没有’t qualify, or they’重新自营职业等?

  • 我一直以来都对此表示怀疑,但感谢您对此给予关注。游戏将如何结束?无休止的免费资金供应必须在某一天结束。我不知道这将如何发生,以及对住房市场的影响。

    我们有足够的钱来节省首付款,但我拒绝参加竞标游戏(在圣地亚哥)。我们的计划是购买一个地方并至少保留7-10年。我担心这个游戏不会很快结束,而当它结束时,价格将触底需要3-4年。

    由于我已经错过了比赛的最好的一半时间,所以去年家里的紧张情绪高涨,去年’价格永远不会回来… Not 真 sure how 至 proceed from here…

    感谢任何输入。谢谢!

    • It is never possible 至 guess how speculative games will turn out. Unfortunately, 您 never know what is the best time is 至 buy, sell, hold etc. except in hindsight. That is because the price of any asset class, like real estate, is determined by the sum 至 tal of the emotions of all the people who are buying and selling that asset class. Think about how hard it is 至 predict the emotions of one person, let alone thousands of people.

      I say go with 您 r gut. 在一个marriage 您 have two decision makers. Either one should have veto power over major purchases –特别是大型投机商。如果对此感到过于紧张,那么通过是正确的决定。

      It’无论价格在哪里,这都是一个不错的决定,因为决策过程是公正而合理的。

      我希望这有帮助。

      • 预测现实检查

        @分析师— I read 您 r post after I had written my comment above. You are smart, correct and have a cooler head than most. Please keep posting.

    • 布兰克芬勋爵

      麦迪逊 many people on this blog share 您 r frustration (I did 至 o before finally throwing in the 至 wel and buying). From the last five years, nobody and I mean NOBODY could have predicted how things turned out in the housing market. Who could have predicted low 3% rates, QE on steroids, banks withholding inventory, 现金 buyers up the wazoo, etc, etc? This tells us that NOBODY has any idea what lies ahead. 什么 您 need 至 focus on is the facts 您 have in front of 您 至 day.

      You have a downpayment. You plan on staying for at least 10 years. I assume 您 have somewhat stable income, good credit and 紧急情况 savings. If the area 您 are looking at is close 至 rental parity, it might make sense 至 buy. Rental parity is always a good measure of how under/overvalued properties are. Things didn’在2006年没有任何意义,但在2011年看起来确实不错。

      Housing is truly a tangible asset, especially in desirable parts of California. This asset looks pretty good when compared 至 现金, treasuries, precious metals or stocks. It all might be a casino, but at least 您 can live in a house. Additionally, 房主永远比租房者更受青睐…这永远不会改变。

      My question for 您 is what would compel 您 至 buy? Lower prices, higher rates, more selection, less competition? Good luck in whatever 您 decide.

      • “没有人知道未来” + “房主永远比租房者更受青睐” = does not compute

      • 布兰克芬勋爵

        乔,我’我会在这里四处走动,宣称房客永远不会在我们的社会中受到青睐。怎么样’s that?

        在房主的角落里,我们有:联邦政府,政客,精英,与世隔绝的游说者,他们代表与住房相关的许多行业,全国大部分地区等。

        在房客的角落,我们有…I don’t know.

        如何计算?

      • 它没有’t because 您 contradict 您 rself.

      • >>在房客的角落,我们……我不知道。 <<

        租户在当地拥有很大的政治权力。询问纽约或圣莫尼卡的任何房东。我最近读到,圣莫尼卡人有70%是房客。因此,严格的租金控制。

        在纽约市,如果房客愿意,房东必须续约。房客可以将租金控制的租约留给子女,孙子女,曾孙子女…租金控制的房东基本上是与房客结婚的。

        而且'迁走租户的行为非常艰巨和昂贵'不付钱。租户有各种法律上的延迟和保护。

        当然,即使在租金控制的城市中,并非所有房屋都受租金控制。但这总是可以改变的。如果经济不景气,应否有足够数量的租户失业,采用或扩大租金控制的压力以及驱逐无薪租户的难度将增加。

        在下一次经济崩溃之后,这些全现金购房者租住了房屋,可能醒来后发现自己生活在突然颁布的法令之下"emergency"租金控制和房客保护法。

    • if 您 believe last year’s prices will never come back again, then 您 should have confidence 至 buy right now. You don’t want prices 至 go back 至 last year if 您 ’re buying this year.

      分析师是正确的’很难预测投机市场会发生什么。我们赢了’t see the kinds of defaults we saw last time, so probably 您 will just see the market slow down or stabilize.

      市场也不同,价格范围也不同。一世’在加利福尼亚州中部的m处,看到150k范围内的3bd / 2b SFH。每个即将入住的家庭都有20个优惠。在不到一年的时间内,该范围内的房屋增长了20%。但是25万套房屋的升级速度并没有那么快。

      我现在非常担心现在在加利福尼亚州的任何地方购买750k +的房子,但是我们还没有’还没看到顶部。它’到达那里后发生的一切。

      Ultimately 您 r decision should be based on 1) 您 r available capital 2) 您 r budget 3) rent 值s compared 至 抵押贷款 in 您 r budget

      • Thanks everybody for 您 r responses. I will start looking at rental parity for the places that we do see in the future. I should’我曾在2010-2011年做过此数学运算,因为’给了我购买的信心(没有当前的挑战或价格上涨,没有现金优惠等)

        在这一点上,我主要担心的是不要高买,然后在价格开始下跌时无奈地观察。这就是让我退缩的原因。我对全球金融体系的当前状况做了相当多的阅读,并认为由于所有杠杆的浮动,下一次崩溃即将来临。当利率开始上升时,我感到很高兴,因为那将意味着价格必须下降。我不’看不到它在圣地亚哥发生。

        So 至 summarize, we have a downpayment, have 紧急情况 savings and reasonably stable jobs. This fear of another downturn and falling 值s is not letting me commit :-(. Like 分析员, MikeB and LordB pointed out, I have 至 learn 至 accept the fact that no one can “really”预测接下来会发生什么。查看现有事实并做出决定。再次感谢你们。

    • 麦迪逊

      I’m in the same boat as 您 . 这里’一个非常非常有趣的博客,来自抵押市场上受人尊敬的参与者– http://mhanson.com/blog。马克·汉森(Mark Hanson)说,利率的大幅上涨已经对可再生能源市场产生了负面影响,其影响远不止购房者在2010年的税收抵免。过期)。他相信,正如我所做的那样,现在正在探讨的是世界历史上最大的货币实验(QE,Twist等),其影响可能很大。但是,他还说,由于报告的滞后时间,数据要等到秋天才显示正在解开的内容。每个人都应该看看这个博客。

  • Not all 现金 buyers are 真 现金 buyers:

    “Blackstone, the largest real estate private equity fund, just consummated a $2.1 B loan via Deutsche Bank AG. Blackstone has already invested over $3 B into the purchase of single 家庭 homes since 2012 for use as rental properties. This new loan will allow the group 至 take down another $2 B of inventory over the next 2 years.”

    The biggest buyer, of course, is the Fed. The Fed has been buying up $40 billion in impaired Fannie and Freddie MBS, at full face 值, every month, and it has been keeping the houses that collateralize those 至 xic MBS off of the market. This has been a boon 至 the TBTF banks and hedge 资金. For instance:

    “2012年最大的对冲基金赢家是总部位于纽约的Metacapital。由于押注美联储购买房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)抵押债券而导致的房价上涨,其“抵押贷款机会基金”(Mortgage Opportunities Fund)今年压缩了520%的利润。”

  • “Some have argued that the “all 现金” crowd isn’t 真 all 现金 which may be true in some transaction….”

    我也听说过。有人对此有更多了解吗?

    • I’m a SoCal refugee…retired…卖掉了我25年的有偿购房款,其价值远远超过了一个人,这个人在他100%的VA评估中支付了$ 25k。然后我用现金在爱达荷州买了一个更好得多的定制房屋。读Bubble博士帮助我安排了很多销售时间。

      我还有一个退休的朋友….also a CA refugee…..who 现金ed out a sizable chunk of his 401-k and 至 ok the tax hit simply 至 put a bigger portion of it into an all 现金 transaction for a new home purchase in CO. With 10,000 boomers per day turning 65, 您 ’将会看到更多退休者放弃以高风险小额报酬转而使用硬质有形资产的票据资产市场。它’s an especially compelling strategy if 您 r next unplanned move is 至 the undertaker’s.

      I hope this is helpful 至 您 r understanding of one overlooked segment of the all 现金 trend.

      • That does help a little, 但它 was implied 至 me that a number of these 现金 purchases are made where the 现金 may not exist (ie. loans). In the case of 现金ing out a 401k, at least that 钱 is had…somewhere.

  • 我叫这个故事的BS!完整的BS!除非“cash buyers”是美联储/美国政府。整个住房市场现在都是操纵的赌场。

  • 谢谢,真的很有趣,我知道百分比在加利福尼亚北部当地的某个范围内,但是不知道全国的数字是那么高。我亲身经历了一年的尝试,试图购买一年,而我的出价(降价20%,等于或略高于要价)被忽略了,而是因为一年前放弃了每次100%现金出价。看到有争论认为钱是’这实际上不是所有的现金,因为它是从某处借来的,但这对卖方没有影响,也无助于需要抵押的任何人。

  • 为什么用现金购买投资者和脚蹼以全现金的方式抢购这些房屋是有道理的。当现金购买者将支付5-10%的补偿和评估价时,传统的购买者和FHA购买者将悬而未决,然后竞标下一个可以piggy售的房产,以此作为将自己的房屋标高到令人难以置信的新高度的理由。

    这意味着当泡沫破裂时,’与上次崩溃一样多的默认值,这可能意味着赢得了价格 ’崩溃像以前一样陡峭。但这又使中产阶级家庭不得不为这些房屋支付高价和高价,而当市场放缓时,他们是最有风险的家庭。现金购买者肯定会影响房屋的最低价格范围,这再次使中产阶级家庭陷入困境,被迫支付疯狂,不合理的加价才能进入房屋。

    I’在过去的8个月中,作为FHA买家在加利福尼亚州的150k范围内一直在市场上交易,在我的20项左右报价中(均高于要价),其中至少14套房子以全现金方式出售,有时甚至没有出价最高的人。早期很明显,非理性的力量(现金,投机活动)正在推动这个市场,并且价格以疯狂的速度上涨。资产变化时情况如何?“value”在不到一年的时间内增长了20%?一月份这套价格为$ 140k的独立屋现在售价为$ 170k。一世’我不再玩游戏了。

  • 查看此图,该图显示抵押贷款申请大幅下降!

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/get-ready-the-great-transfer-of-wealth-in-gold-silver-is-coming/

    来自Silverdoctors:

    此外,房地产市场即将陷入困境,“抵押贷款活动下降了50%,至2011年4月的水平。”我们可以从下面的Zerohedge图表中看到,随着抵押贷款申请下降到三年来的最低水平,现有房屋销售(以棕色显示)将大幅下降:

    住房市场的持续健康是基于低利率。但是,债券利率在过去3-4个月中一直大幅上升,这影响了房地产市场的抵押贷款利率。自5月以来,十年期美国国债收益率惊人地增长了63%:

  • Wow! No one is getting the ramifications of what I am saying. It is still an almost all financed 泡沫 just not through the mortgage market. This crash will be just as bad because 资金 will 倾倒 the asset without foreclosure laws 至 slow them down. The banks will be looking 至 socialize these upcoming losses. And 至 add insult 至 injury, 您 r 401ks and pension 资金 will be holding these new 至 xic assets. NOTHING HAS CHANGEED!!!

    • 我们都知道大家伙们’承担损失,使人民能够社会化。我认为这是有道理的,那就是投资以及随之而来的损失都在人身上’s 401(k) 资金.

    • 是的,到最后’系统的所有用户仍会感觉到仍在筹集资金和影响。这就是为什么’对一个人如此重要’问题的财务状况,寻找信息,最重要的是–当某事不怀疑时’没有道理或似乎太过真实了。住房市场的一个问题是,它提供了容易的情感猎物。不耐烦很少得到回报。

  • 什么 happens when they want/need the 现金 for something else?

  • Alright, so 您 guys think since they bought in 现金 they won’t sell. Let’s suppose 您 are right. But if prices fall do 您 think they will keep buying? If they just hold onto what they already have that is not a floor. We still have millions of homes 至 underwater and 至 be foreclosed on. Who buys those? If the 现金 crowd just blew their wad, they might not even have the 钱 when the true bottom hits. There is also the danger that they do sell because the recent crash is still fresh in their memory. Nobody wants 至 get stuck holding the bag. They know the home they just paid $165k for was only selling at $50k two years ago and sitting on the market for months. They know they overpriced. It is better 至 take their losses and chase the latest hot trade where they can make it back in weeks…..

    All I know is the Federal Reserve keeps saying deflation is the threat. Why buy a depreciating asset? One that was a 泡沫 and never went back 至 pre-bubble prices? That is the danger of deflation. Too many people spend their 现金 and then don’t have it. It’s a downward spiral.

    • 山姆, I agree with what 您 outline in 您 r post!

      有趣的是,又是轶事。但是,在过去的三天中,我收到了Trulia / Redfin发出的关于房屋价格的三个警报,这些房屋最近在IE的Eastvale / Corona地区已经降价。此外,我订阅的一位建筑商提醒我,他们在早上凌晨在Elsinore湖上的一所房屋降价。

      有趣的是,就在新年的第一天之后,到明年春天的市场在哪里?

    • 同意它’要使这些较新的投资者购买者(即“cash”买方)都处于购买和持有策略。从一厢情愿的想法中,评论者在哪里构成这一思想的基础?

      “One that was a 泡沫 and never went back 至 pre-bubble prices”

      我认为这是尚未恢复到其均值的SoCal住房价格水平。它在进行中,然后税收抵免引入了噪音,然后又重新开始,然后ZIRP引入了更多噪音。

  • 什么?… Why would the 资金 just 倾倒 the assets? Inflation and cost of capital are interrelated. Inflation increases rents, fixed asset 值 and replacement costs. Low 通货膨胀 and cost of capital bolsters asset 值 thru 便宜的 financing.

    Oversupply of product due 至 huge amounts of defaults is what destroyed 值s. But now a majority of bad loans …gone. sub-prime… gone. “0”HELOC和ez qual…没了剩下的ALT-A武器现在可以享受超低利率和20年摊销的好处。随着水下人数的减少,不良销售的供应非常有限…再加上已完成的贷款修改,我们很可能不会在很长一段时间内看到大量的违约。
    This will constrain supply and Buyers will continue 至 turn 至 used and rehab homes (flips) until prices make sense for new construction again. However, here in SoCal the barriers 至 entry and increased cost of new constuction dictate 值 for existing housing stock.

    基金在市场底部和反向购买房屋“bubble”人为的低价格现在已经流行了。在接下来的几个月和几年里,我们将进入一个更加规范的市场,疯狂的现金购买者会退出市场,并按照惯例“family”买家占多数。的“funds”市场的一部分将填补入门级的买方细分市场,并且可能主要出售给现有的租户。
    基于这些原因,他们不太可能必须“dump”他们的资产。恰恰相反。

    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

      Sorry Lebuilder 您 are missing the misdirection. The sorcerers trick. Still thinking the collapse was because of subprime borrowers. The myth that was sold 至 the masses that do not understand the real game being played. 什么? Is correct.

  • Another interesting observation regarding the current market conditions and the historic disproportional share of 现金 buyers.
    在一个“normal” stabilized market, it should not take 10 days 至 sell a house. 90-120 days is about average in most areas for the 中位数 priced home. I believe when we see this return 至 正常, there will be less 现金 buyers in the market and more traditional buyers. As the numbers of 现金 buyers begins 至 decline… And i believe it will, it does not mean a 泡沫 pop, …仅仅是恢复稳定。

  • 正如其他人指出的,这在哪里“cash” coming from? Odds are it is a loan, just not a mortgage. But, theoretically, must be paid back 至 the lender. Leverage, is leverage. Unless 您 ’是美联储的成员银行。

  • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

    PS. We are at the financial equivalent of when 您 get 至 the end of 您 r grapefruit and 您 squeeze the last remaining drops into 您 r mouth. The banksters are squeezing and we are the grapefruit the government is the garbage disposal that will eat any remains.

  • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

    是!!不了解金融市场和货币体系的人仍然不了解’他们没有操纵住房市场’不了解由于利率低和伪造的操纵性低库存(银行仍然有数百万个空置房屋,数百万个仍处于取消抵押品赎回权的过程。数百万和数百万的房屋),房价较高’我不知道摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)等高盛集团正在将房屋租赁证券化。他们不’不能理解金钱是如何创造的,它赋予了它价值,但没有。所以我可以从这里的一些评论中看出,他们认为,因为现在人们用现金购买房屋,这意味着住房市场更加稳定,事实并非如此,这意味着人们将失去现金,而不仅仅是他们的现金。当一切再次崩溃时,抵押贷款就像它的名字一样总是像海报一样吗?如此明确指出。我也很讨厌有人指责他们的当地房地产经纪人。那太离谱了’令人尴尬的阅读,因为我为撰写它的人的无知感到抱歉。它’就像为学生贷款骗局指责指导顾问一样。那’■另一个郁金香金融诈骗抢劫了所有人。

  • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)

    PS the large institutional all 现金 buyers have done so through a special Fed program only offered 至 large institutional 投资人. They must hold these properties as rentals for 5 years. The large institutional investment banksters are securitizing the rent rolls now. Hello? This 泡沫 will pop like every other one. This time people will lose their 现金.

  • 谢谢你
    从总体上讲-如果没有改善的经济-一种通过库存增加和房地产市场等其他指标来衡量的经济-如就业,那么住房市场就不可能有真正广泛的可持续发展。

  • 自2009年以来,我每天都开始阅读此博客。

    2002年市场上涨时,我当时卖得太早了。我以为再也无法在洛杉矶购买了。我讨厌自己卖掉我的4单元建筑超过6年。

    In 2009 I was blessed 至 find a great job again (long story). I had 钱 in my 401k and at that time my 401k was not doing anything for me. So I decided in 2009 至 现金 out 85K 至 buy a 2 unit building.

    I would have 至 say 2009 is when I notice that people were buying place with all 现金. Every place I put a bit in I would miss out because of 现金 buyers. All I would hear from my agent is “Cash is King”.

    但是对于我来说,发生了一件了不起的事情,因为现金购买者决定退出出售,我曾经想过的地方再次出现。我的经纪人恰好认识这个人正在处理卖空的人。我是下一个排队的人,所以他们把这个地方卖给了我。我能够放下20%并获得5.0的利率。我得到了472K的奖金。

    从那时起,我在2013年5月收复了这个地方,并能够获得3.75的利率。
    看一下这个。我关闭refi后1周,费率开始上涨。

    我说这一切只是为了说只有上帝允许我获得这个地方。

  • 由于利率目前已接近5%,一旦美联储在今年秋天开始缩减其MBS购买量,利率可能约为7%,如果他们想出售这些定价过高的房屋,价格将不得不下跌。随着通货膨胀率的上升,华尔街将不再购买,该国的劳动力参与度处于数十年来的最低点。正规劳动者可以’付出这些代价。我不’不知道我们是否将有足够的中国洗钱活动来覆盖房地产市场。它会很有趣。

  • 是的,当然,还会再次崩溃。什么时候?当利率上升到历史常态。当美联储停止印钞时,它将发生。当它这样做时,整个纸牌屋就会倒塌…

  • 50%的修改抵押贷款正在重新违约。

  • 阅读来自住房先驱的评论,使人回想起patrick.net和housingpanic.com在2006年的生活。…然后就像现在的炒家们吹捧的是一个新的常态,在这个常态中,重力可以无限期地反抗。职位充满轰炸和乐观的前景,然后在2007年下半年发生。甚至外国的寡头们也大肆宣传SoCal RE都依赖于故障系统。技术,债务去杠杆化和人口统计构成了多代通缩周期。没有逃避这个现实。由于Orwell正确的技术使阶级区分远没有人类历史上任何时候都广泛。 30年的债务狂潮仅是为了维持上层阶级的分裂。他们已经战斗了很长时间了,但是他们的能力正在减弱。看到比特币,反对银行卡特尔的自由主义者运动的发展,等等。夹具在上升,比以往任何时候都更多的人知道它。

  • 我的用户名去哪儿了?

    博客旁边的广告很有趣:1)一个声称‘三大灾难性转变将使97%的可再生能源投资者破产’; 2)一家公司声明,‘Your home is the biggest purchase of 您 r life – shouldn’t it come with a ‘money-back option’?; 3)试图出售银币的地方。

  • Amen!! And/or I rest my case 您 r honor!!! 😉 Yep, the feel is that of 2006, at our doorstep again!

    ……当音乐停止时…..???? 🙂

    Thank 您 Dr. 乙肝, for 您 r great forum!!

    “….Then just as now specuvestors 至 uted a new 正常 where gravity could be defied indefinitely. Posts full of bombast and bullish outlooks, and then late 2007 happened. even the foreign oligarchs pumping up SoCal RE are hopelessly dependent on a failing system….”

  • I have been watching these cycles and I have a hairbrained idea. The 现金 buyers are buying 至 hedge against 通货膨胀 and 至 generate some 现金flow in the interim until its time 至 unload.
    I’m doing some back of the envelope math and if 您 buy a house for $240,000 and it rents for $2000 a moth that’s a 10% return and 您 still have 您 r equity. If the 值 drops, think of it like a bond. The 值 dropped but 您 r return just went up as a percentage of the paper 值. If 您 pay $480,000 for this house 您 r still making 5% which isn’t shabby in 至 day’s market.
    我认为投资者的眼光很长。这些房屋的售价为240,000美元,在30至40年前以35,000美元的价格售出。他们正在研究所有的量化宽松政策,并认为通货膨胀必须在某个时候回来。他们宁愿拥有刚出售的黄金吗?不,因为它没有回报,金价可能会回落至每盎司300美元,就像房子跌至15万美元一样容易。这一点滴– and there’仍然每个月都有回报。

    明智的读者–请把我的想法戳破。投资愉快。

    • I agree that these 投资人 are buying for those reasons 您 listed, but I do want 至 poke holes in 您 r inputs 您 used 至 calculate the return. A $240,000 house in 至 day’s 值 in Sacramento will not get $2000/mo in rent. It may get $1200/mo in rent. $200/mo in 财产税es, 您 need insurance, there is upkeep and 您 usually don’t rent out 您 r unit 365 days/yr year after year. You are getting like 4.5% if 您 chose a great house, plus it takes up time, and there is a legitimate downside risk of falling home 值s. If 您 can get $2000/mo rents where 您 are, then that is great. Sacramento/Las Vegas/Reno are the hot spots where 投资人 are buying and the rent/purchase price ratio looks more like my calculation than 您 rs.

    • 要获得2k的租金,房屋必须位于更理想的区域,因此价格不会是240k,而应该是300-400k(除非您很久以前以240k的价格购买)。因此,24k / 350k是7%减去1.25%的税金和1%的维护费用。那’回报率为4.75%,您可以购买相同的股利股票投资组合,也可以在美联储停止购买股票后的30年内将UST买入!仍在表演中。随着美国就业前景,人口和债务负担的恶化。 RE正准备成为以当前价格提供给长期手袋持有者的完美礼物。至少在2006年,经济前景(假)好得多。当这些债务泡沫破灭时,将不会出现通货膨胀,而是会等待通缩,因为所有电子货币都将消失,人们将停止偿还债务,迫使许多基于债务的投资在此过程中遭受重创,破坏了大量的纸面财富。只要看一下学生贷款的债务,其中许多孩子将花一两年的时间偿还这笔钱,并且不再创造更多“nuclear”家庭。再加上老一辈人的精简,未来的需求正在很好地形成!!!由于需求减少,美国中上阶层和上层阶级的人口最终将达到顶峰(欧洲和日本已经达到顶峰),所有经济活动和资产价格都将下降。这是等待可再生能源的长期未来,’不漂亮。那只是使我们不能创造更多的土地论证而退缩。

      • 你的数学不’t保持:股票也具有内在的杠杆作用。它’s just hidden.

        至于债券和票据:它们提供防止货币贬值的保护措施—目前正在进行黑社会风潮— globally.

        Many of the California buyers are Chinese, fleeing a truly insane real estate 泡沫 in Red China. By their standards, California premium real estate is just being given away.

        We saw this same logic in the late 1980s with Japanese buyers. Like 至 days Chinese, they were ALWAYS all 现金 buyers. Heck, they’d刚飞往镇上。

        像所有其他种族一样,中国人只想在某些社会安全的地区购物。它’这些市场是最热门的市场并非偶然。

        由于这些购买几乎是恐慌性购买(政治驱使整个北京),中国人正在加紧甚至支付要​​价— from time 至 time.

        这个过程早在卑诗省温哥华就已发生。在澳大利亚这两个市场一直在飞速发展。在过去的15年中,温哥华一些昂贵的社区从100%的白人变成了100%的中国人。他们只是对其他潜在买家出价过高!自然,卖家很乐意接受这笔交易。

        通常,对冲基金通常代表/投资与热钱完全相反的机构资金。他们可能会从一名经理转移到另一名经理,但会继续工作。

        什么’驾驶所有人是缺少替代品—在钱财猖ramp之时。官方的通货膨胀统计数据是—每个认真的投资者都知道。

        这意味着‘buy and hold’债券是毁灭性的。即使名义回报率为12%’t cut it.

        但是,租金收入具有跟踪货币贬值的前景。大多数人还记得1970年代的金融动态。

        但是价格上涨已达到极限— for rental 现金-flow 投资人. From here on up it requires plenty of greater-fools —而美国联邦财政部正在拆除打孔碗。

        如此逐步地,这个国家将成为租房者的国家。那’长期趋势—延伸至少一代。

    • 毫无疑问,投资者赢了,中产阶级输了。即使价值观停滞甚至暴跌,您仍然每个月都会获得回报,并且您’不支付抵押贷款。无论价值降低多少,肉汁火车永远都不会停止(他们赢了’抹去大多数投资者最近3年购买的股票。它’每月收入+权益或仅每月收入。当一些投资者认为价格可以承受时,他们将在几年后转移投资’不再上升,但正如您所说,其中大多数都采取了长期的方法。这样做才有意义。为什么,如果您在2011年购买了20万套房屋并每月获得2,000美元,您在2014年将以25万美元的价格出售。您的收入少于$ 100k,这不错,但是您’我结束了肉汁列车。我认为,投资者在跌至谷底后便意识到自己的股票是安全的,即使市场动荡,无论出售还是继续作为房东,他们仍将处于优势地位。

      • 作为房东是肉汁吗?

        空缺,维修和违反租赁的肉汁在哪个星球上?那’拥有出租物业的一些更有益的方面。

  • 预测现实检查

    好吧,芬斯特利普斯— at least 您 ’重新思考并尝试理解事物。很多人不’麻烦他们做出错误的决定。

    这是一个戳— 您 r yield (return) on the hypothetical house 您 purchased does not go up if the underlying 值 of it declines. Your yield is based on the original purchase price . And 您 must tabulate all of the additional expenses related 至 owning real estate….then deduct those costs from 您 r incoming rent 至 get a true yield. Lastly, unlike a bond, real estate does not have a stated maturity date when the face 值 is paid off at par.

  • I would like 至 see he stats on the number of people who have purchased or refinanced with 30 year fixed rate loans below the 4.5 percent mark. Also include those who completed loan mods in the 2-3 percent range. Add 至 this the true 现金 buyers since 2009. Then add 至 this the people that hung on 至 their option ARMs originated ten years ago. I think 您 will see this is a large portion of current households. If rates go up, this will further constrain supply because people will not want 至 give up their current loans. The prospects for another huge oversupply in SoCal are slim.

    SoCal是与该国其他大部分地区不同的市场。它’授权和建立新的资源非常昂贵。从投资角度分析时,应考虑重置成本。

  • 关于那些“overpriced houses”, in my experience, many sellers do not 真 need 至 sell. Many test the waters or are of the opinion that if we can get X for the current house, I can pay Y for the replacement one…否则,我们将保持现状。

    脚蹼通常会将市场推向最大,并在需要时留出谈判的余地。它’如果物业没有价格,最好降低价格’t在60到90天内卖出,而不是把钱留在桌子上。随着市场的改善,更换项目很难实现。

  • 自2006年以来,我一直在订阅该博客。当时很明显,房地产泡沫的破裂是不可避免的。但是,泡沫也提供了我们一生中最大的机会来购买房地产。另一个这样的机会发生在20世纪80年代&胸围在阳光下没有什么新鲜事物,因此所有这些繁荣/萧条周期之前已经发生过很多次。人们认为上升的趋势将继续上升是一种妄想,但是那些认为下降的趋势必须继续下降的人们也是如此。

    我对房地产市场进行投资的公式是,租金必须能够承受良好地区的SFH或公寓物业的所有费用,且首付比例应降低25%,并以30年固定利率计算。我们的目标是在发展中地区地理位置优越的地区开发新的SFH或公寓,其价格比最高价低50%至70%以上。根据过去的历史数据,可以发现,在新开发项目中,萧条更为严重(讨价还价更好),繁荣总是从其停滞的地方开始(更好地增加潜力)。那个萧条然后繁荣的新兴地区是80年代的加利福尼亚橙县。

    From 2010 至 2012, we bought a couple of places in 拉斯维加斯 and Downtown Los Angeles. We financed the 便宜的er SFHs in 拉斯维加斯 and paid all 现金 for the 公寓 in Los Angeles. There was no bidding war at the time; in fact, there were hardly any buyers. As for where our 现金 came from, it is not from refinancing our properties or taken out from our 401k, but rather, from years of hard earned saving. We are just middle class professionals who are conscientious about 钱. My sister and a lot of my friends are in the same situation. I know there has 至 be a much bigger picture of who the 现金 buyers are and I just hope my experience helps filling part of this puzzle.

    我已经从市场上找回了,因为我们期望会有所改观。至于我们将如何应对?我们不是在这里翻转。人们需要一个居住的地方,因此除非像底特律那样绝对没有工作可导致大量居民外流的底特律,否则我们只收取租金即可。在这一点上,如果市场走高,我们很高兴知道我们的房地产正在积累价值。如果市场走低,我们也可以接受,因为我们可以购买更多的廉价物业。

  • 我不再关注市场的动量,而专注于即时销售的投资回报率。我拿了一个“median”物业价值超过“median” rent in 齐洛, assumed no financing needed, for my target area. I then factored in water, sewer, property management (more than collecting rents mind 您 , good full service affordable), insurance, taxes, repairs and stuff estimated and averaged out from several sources… came up with a final gross 现金 flow over asset price of about 3%. 帕特里克网 I recall had a nice rule of thumb 3, 6, 9% yields tell 您 what 至 do. However it’市场崩盘时确实有3%的下跌空间,但下跌幅度为20-40%。它’还没来得及演出。

    If 现金 is king, then 现金 *flow* is the queen.

  • 根据DataQuick的数据,2012年,现金购买占加利福尼亚州房屋销售的创纪录的32.4%。幅度从圣马特奥县的24.2%到默塞德县的42.9%。多购房者–那些购买两个或更多房产的人–仅占现金购买量的28%。

    • Multi-home buyers are 28% of all 现金 purchases? Granted it’s not like everyone is doing it but 28% sounds like nearly a third of purchasers are 现金 and nearly a third of those are buying multiple properties.
      Isn’与以前的名义市场相比,这是一个相当大的百分比吗?
      I’我没有试图倒退我的案子,但我想知道我们是否’在当今疯狂的市场中看到了逃亡和逃亡的迹象。

      我于2009年以23万美元的价格在南河滨县的一个短途交易中购买了SFD,希望搬进来。’那时我们不动’ve每年按年租金不到2000美元租给稳定的租户。
      I’我会保证这可能是我的一个’我不太可能重复,但我希望我能再购买2或3栋房屋,并将这个成功倍增。这不’听起来好像本来可以在萨克拉曼多重演– per the OP 但它 can be done in some places here in Cali. These places sold new for $50,000 plus in the mid-80’s.
      我不’对拉斯维加斯知之甚少。它’s tempting but I’m not smart enough….

  • I’ve been reading through here for quite sometime. Just put offers on our 5th and 6th place over the past year and, yep, 您 ’ve guessed it – the seller 至 ok all 现金 offers over ours. At least on one of these recent ones, the seller said we were the second best offer. This BS is so frustrating. I have a super steady job, perfect credit, a forgivable second of $150k from my employer, 但它’对于像我们这样的家庭来说,几乎是不可能的。

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