United States of Cash Sales: A feudal changing of the guard. 58 percent of all 真实 -estate-owned sales went 至 现金买家 out flanking traditional buyers with no access 至 pools of cash.
The old adage that cash is king seems 至 be the new mantra for 真实 estate in a post housing crash world. Investors continue 至 主导房地产市场 挑剔的房子饥渴的买主，他们只想找一个家的地方。啤酒预算，香槟口味，热爱债务。当然，正如一些精明的读者所知，首次购房者的典型持有时间在7到10年之间。这对许多人来说并不重要，因为首次购房已接近创纪录的低点，尤其是在像加利福尼亚这样价格昂贵的州， 租借文艺复兴. Actually, this is more like a new middle ages in housing were big 钱 from all over the world is crowding out regular home buyers. Yet big 钱 is fickle. It moves around quickly. We are already seeing inventory creep up because prices are becoming less attractive 至 投资者s. Of course the crowd is always late 至 the party. Those that time the market get a large amount of attention while the 自2005年以来有7,000,000处丧失抵押品赎回权 似乎降级为“房地产永不衰败”历史的附录。关于所有现金购买的一些新的有趣数据。最近所有REO销售额中有58％用于现金购买者（相比之下，现金购买者占所有销售的40％）。 REO是更好的交易，通常价格更具吸引力，具有讽刺意味的是，收入拮据的家庭实际上需要这些资产。再说一次，这不是您的典型住房市场。
Some think that 投资者s will continue 至 buy aimlessly and mindlessly as if they had no interest in protecting their wealth. While foreign 钱 might make a 在关键领域产生巨大影响，美国是一个非常大的国家。我知道，令人震惊。对于像加利福尼亚这样的地方，除了眼前的泡沫，他们对世界一无所知。无论花费多少，拥有一些东西都是很重要的。人们忘记了我们刚刚经历的史诗般的住房泡沫是因为人们在住房了如此之多之后就垂涎三尺，他们开始将其视为宗教教条。如今，您的口头禅开始流行，但是那些投资者热衷于看价格。这就是为什么他们大多数注意力都集中在REO上的原因。
This is a 真实 ly interesting chart. In more traditional times, cash sales make up about 20 至 30 percent of all REO deals. Since REOs were a small part of all sales, this usually was a tiny amount of overall sales. Of course all that changed with the epic housing crash. REO sales were suddenly a big part of the market. 您’ll notice in 2008 that 投资者s started targeting REOs 作为他们购买的偏好。
您’ll also notice that short sales suddenly picked up recently for 现金买家. Short sales take longer 至 usher through but when 好 deals are in short supply, you have 至 go 至 your next best option. New home sales are largely higher priced and targeted for buyers that plan on staying put for some time (not a big target for 投资者s here).
重要的是要注意，上面的图表代表了所有销售额的总体下降趋势。它强调了传统的买家是 largely absent in this housing 复苏.
Sales are weak and mortgage applications are at levels last seen in 2000. As 投资者s pull back, inventory of course is increasing:
The funny thing, is that many that champion 真实 estate in the current market are largely advocating this for others. The line of thinking is the same: “I bought in 2004, 2005, 2006 and look where prices are 至 day in 2007!” Today it is more like I bought in 2011 or 2012 but would they pay the current market price of their home? Many would not. They got a 好 deal and that is great. But what about now? Was there only one bus that left the station? What about the fact that only 三分之二的加利福尼亚人实际上有能力购买？如果 提案13的变更, which now seems more likely? What will the impact be of becoming a state with a heavier 出租 population? The fact that sales are slowing down dramatically and prices are stalling out suggests something is in the offing. The housing market is a massive ship and trends once started, take years 至 unfold. So far we’ve had a 好 run with low interest rates, massive 投资者 buying, and constrained inventory. Is this trend going 至 hold?
The reason that 投资者s are pulling back is there are fewer deals 至 be had. Take a look at SoCal sales and the percentage being made up by 止赎:
Not a large number of 止赎转售. So 投资者s will likely have 至 pay current market prices if they want 至 play and many sellers are high as a kite with their asking prices hoping some newly baptized sucker is ready 至 bite. The rental 投资者 buyers are massively pulling back. Cap rates are pathetic. 您 still have 外国资金流入地方 像旧金山一样，但该地区或绝大多数人居住的其他地区的人还有哪些选择呢？
个人住宅不是投资。如果您拥有租金，那将为您带来收入。如果您居住在一个地方，则有以下支出：本金，利息，保险，税金，HOA和维护。其中一些即使抵押贷款还清，也永远不会消失。这就是为什么我们会有奇怪的现象，即人们生活在SoCal的主要地区，在价值100万美元的房子里购物。 99分商店 或沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）吃东西，并希望Prop 13保持原状，因为他们突然无法负担他们的年度税单（这对新邻居来说当然不成问题）。这些是你的 金色石棺居住潮 特别是在他们的许多后代回到家中的时候
“上个月支付现金的买家占南国房屋销售的26.7％，低于上个月的29.8％，也低于去年4月的34.4％。 2013年2月的峰值是36.9％。自1988年以来，现金购买者的月平均水平为全部销售额的16.5％。现金购买者上个月支付的中位数为$ 380,000 26.7％ 从一年前开始。”
The median price last month was $404,000 for SoCal. Fewer deals, lower cash buyer volume, and rising inventories. With fewer REOs out there, the 好 deals are harder 至 find for 投资者s and you have house horny buyers now leveraging up with low down payments and the use of ARMs is back 至 a six year high (14.1 percent for April 2014 versus 7.9 percent in April 2013). Good luck paying $ 600,000或$ 700,000 for some poorly built home and trying 至 convince yourself you have found the next Malibu. As the storm of 投资者s slowly ebbs back, we are truly going 至 find out what areas the new feudal lords deem as prime and areas were aspirations are bigger than their wallets.SoCal是无所不包的生活方式。Did 您 Enjoy The Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information