Welcome Serfs 至 the new Housing System: How 全部现金 投资人 are distorting the housing 恢复y and taking over the primary vehicle for wealth for Americans.
当您将足彩预测变成带有红丝带和新安装的花岗岩台面的精美包装的热销货品时，您已在大多数购买最多的商品中添加了霓虹色唇膏，但不要指望它充当某种保守的资产类别。自2000年以来，华尔街发现了一种新的资产类别，可以对其进行膨胀和投资（赌博）。毫不奇怪，住房已经发生了宗教转变，成为了Boom and Bust教堂。这正是您在某些市场上贪婪的地方看到的 投机者实质上是最大的参与者 in the game. 的 wealth gains in housing are largely distorted because of the massive entrance of 投资人 into the game. For example, millions are buying homes with 5 percent down or less. To keep it simple, someone buys a $150,000 home and puts down $7,500 那 goes directly into the equity of the property. An investor buys the home with 全部现金. For each one of these purchases, you would need 20 of the conventional purchases simply 至 match up the level of equity. All cash means 100 percent equity from day one at least when it comes 至 data being reported on housing. This is why as we will discuss in the equity chart later on, 那 this has been incredibly distorted in favor of 投资人. And where are these gains really going? 5 million Americans have lost their homes (if you can call it 那 since many were in 债务 up 至 their eyeballs with little 至 no equity) since the crisis hit and a good number have gone 至 投资人. With rates shooting up, you are going 至 see the appetite of many 投资者很快变酸.
In no time in history have we had so many 投资人 buying up this much property. In Las Vegas, it is up 至 60 percent. In Arizona, the figures are close 至 那. In Florida we have about 30 至 40 percent. In California over 30 percent. This has been the game for a few years now. Now say 50,000 homes sold in the Las Vegas region alone last year (say an average of 50 percent 全部现金). 那 is 25,000 homes 那 were bought with 100 percent equity. You would need 500,000 equivalent 5 percent down regular home purchases 至 have an equivalent amount of equity from this investor deluge! 换一种说法, nearly 10 years of regular home purchases. You can apply this 至 other large investor markets as well. So when you look at the below chart, we have been on a race 至 inflate equity quickly but how much of this is because of the cash crowd:
这是现代的新方程式 housing feudal 系统. If you don’t have 全部现金, good luck trying 至 buy in these insanely manic markets. People in California are now groveling at open houses crawling on bended knee like a jilted lover begging someone 至 come back. 的 only difference is 那 this is a 1,000 square foot lover built in the 大萧条 selling for $500,000 and in desperate need of a makeover. So the low interest rate environment since 2009 has largely benefitted banks and those with easy access 至 this 钱. Rising home prices have come for all the wrong reasons: speculation, high level of 投资人, and artificially low interest rates. 的 market went into full panic mode just because rates went from 3.5 至 4.5 percent! If you even have any sort of working memory 4.5 percent is ridiculously low. Even 6 percent is great in the longer picture but we now operate in a market with the attention span of a gnat. So the market panicked and people were rushing 至 lock in purchases or were walking away. This market is so fragile 那 a mere whisper from Bernanke was enough 至 send shockwaves in the mortgage markets.
On the flipside, this is good business for hedge fund landlords. Rents have gone up because those 5 million foreclosed need 至 live somewhere. Rents in areas like Las Vegas however are reaching a threshold and the numbers just don’t make sense. You have a game of musical chairs now where 投资人 are trading 至 one another simply for mere speculation on future gains. New home building has been invisible for half a decade. So we’ve added 1,000,000 more renter households in these last few years, mostly in depressed markets. 的 same markets flooded by hedge funds. So a normal family now looking 至 buy has 至 contend with 全部现金 offers. 什么 use is it 那 you have a 4.5 percent mortgage locked in when the sale is going 至 the 全部现金 investor? Colleagues in the industry are even seeing 20 percent offers being ignored in place of the almighty 现金买家.
的 idea 那 somehow the 银行业 纾困s were for the 中产阶级家庭 确实被证明是错误的。最终，这些扭曲伤害了这些地区的当地家庭。如果价格下跌以反映当地家庭的收入，这会变得如此糟糕吗？对于希望购买的家庭，答案是否定的。对于银行来说，答案是肯定的。既然房价已回到接近峰值的水平，人们正为争夺剩下的存货而相互争夺，我们不得不重复一个非常相似的情况。我们刚刚看到美联储将需要加入 像日本一样的QE Infinity 保持这场聚会的进行同时，在进入这些市场的夏季躁狂销售季节之前，请确保您先服用Alka-Seltzer。有些人喜欢在农舍里像农奴一样行事，恳求卖主允许他们为疯狂需要的价格为需要更多工作的足彩预测多付钱。这场危机在2007年爆发，六年后，美联储似乎再次加剧了房地产市场的疯狂。你喜欢这个职位吗？订阅Housing Bubble医生的博客以获取最新的住房评论，分析和信息