的future of the young American homebuyer. Average foreclosure timeline jumps from 253 days in 2007 至 674 days in 2011. 首页ownership rates for 年轻的美国人 point 至 significant issues in household income, demographic changes, and attitude shifts in the desire 至 buy a home.
年轻的美国人前进的道路充满挑战，尤其是在购买 大型都会区。自从 大萧条 震撼了我们经济基本面的心态，随后的每个十年都带来了一种信念，即未来十年将会变得更好的愿景。对于大多数人来说，这意味着一条通往经济繁荣与稳定的更好的道路。有一个怀旧的原因，就是“美国梦”多次包含一个白色的栅栏。第二次世界大战结束后，这基本上是美国住房增长中发生的事情，而郊区的梦想则以似乎是无限增长的模式得以扩展，以满足集体的无意识需求。然而，这种结构性变化与婴儿潮一代和家庭增加了其真正的收入潜力并驾齐驱。然而 年轻的美国人 面临着截然不同的景观。他们面临着更严峻的工作前景，不稳定的股票市场以及 借很多钱的大学 that at times appear 至 reach the levels of a mortgage. Make no mistake that this issue ripples across all age groups. 的system for many years was built on trade-up buying. Yet many boomers are downsizing as they enter retirement and many young Americans are unable 至 pay 至 p dollar for those homes. So what can we say about the future of the young American homebuyer?
首页ownership rates largely skewed by 婴儿潮s and older Americans
的overall homeownership rate is largely skewed by older Americans, those 55 and older. For every other category, the homeownership rate since 1980 has fallen and in some cases dramatically. Take for example the 15 至 24 and 25 至 34 age ranges:
我发现这样的趋势很有趣，因为它使我们对 未来住房市场面临的人口挑战. 的big increase in homeownership at the upper-end is largely due 至 婴儿潮s moving through like a pig in a python. Yet the sizeable drop for 年轻的美国人 is also significant. Demographics can only speak 至 the major increases at the upper-end of the age scale since the above data is merely looking at homeownership rates broken down into cohorts. There are a few reasons that are likely 至 account for these shifts:
-2. 的decline in good paying manufacturing work. Some have 至 put off buying a home in place of 上大学. It was easier 至 buy a home with a $25+ an hour job building automobiles with a secure pension and no need for a college degree. 的American auto makers now have a new-tier for incoming workers for example were workers make $12 an hour and have stripped down benefits. This is just one of the many cases of where a younger buyer 40 or 50 years ago was able 至 buy a home and that option is much more challenging 至 day.
It is 至 o early 至 tell if these trends will carry through this decade into 2020 but there is little reason 至 believe it will change. 的婴儿潮 retirement tsunami is going 至 happen no matter what. This by default will flood the market with housing inventory. 的timing is bad since we have a giant pool of 仍需要清除的影子库存.
让 us now take a snapshot at the current U.S. housing market:
Over 52 million Americans “own” their home but carry a mortgage on the property. Another 23 million own their property 自由 and clear. 的majority are older Americans. Also, you have a large number of Americans in a 负资产头寸. Of the 52 million that own their home over 10 million are in a 负资产头寸。这种趋势给美国人的整体足彩预测净值带来了沉重的打击：
的above chart was always a case study of why we were in a bubble even during the major price appreciation in real estate. Even during the housing bubble household 家庭资产 steadily declined as people leveraged 至 the max and also tapped 钱 out of their 住房自动柜员机。今天，这个数字大大低于上图所示，因为其中还包括那些拥有自由而干净的足彩预测的人。如果我们简单地看一下有抵押的人，就会发现许多美国人的足彩预测净资产很少（忘掉一个事实，那就是超过一千万的人将不得不付钱出售足彩预测）。
This is why since the bubble burst in housing a large aspect for home buying has been with 投资人. 的提升 segment of buyers has been stunted because of the above reasons we mentioned for 年轻的美国人 . 的影子库存保持较高 止赎时间表非常令人难以置信：
的平均止赎时间表 for a home in Florida is over 1,000+ days! Nationwide we went from an average time of 253 days in 2007 至 the current 674 days in 2011. Contrary 至 what is pushed in the media the housing market is in an utter mess. Banks have absolutely no idea how 至 deal with this mess so the path they have taken is that of least resistance and largest 纾困s.
的future of the American housing market does depend largely on how well financially younger American families will do. Just because a 退出美国销售 他或她的足彩预测想要其足彩预测的最高价格，他们可能会发现一个渴望廉价足彩预测的市场。游戏已经变了，那些认为住房奇迹指日可待的人无法理解系统的内置人口统计信息。从长远来看，拥有负担得起的住房也是有益的，因此可支配收入的很大一部分将用于创造就业机会和转移经济，而不是让我们社会中的很大一部分人相互买卖足彩预测并假装经济增长。Did You Enjoy 的Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information