的 incoming 纾困 s for the government mortgage complex and student 债务 市场s – 15 percent of FHA insured loans are 30+ days delinquent. Total first mortgage 市场 fell by $600 billion since 2007 yet government backed 抵押贷款 rose by $1.1 trillion.
的 housing 市场 is such an odd functioning system. It really isn’t a 市场 in the true sense of the word but more of a carefully controlled 市场. I get a kick out of some coming out with grandiose statements claiming that nationwide the housing 市场 is closer 至 reaching the bottom. This kind of statement is as audacious as looking out your window and saying the 天空 is blue. 的 median home price in the US is $156,000 and the median household income is roughly $50,000. Not exactly a stretch 至 state a bottom in price is likely at a 全国范围. Interestingly enough, now with all the chatter of a nationwide bottom the ratio is near a perfect 3:1 with median household income and price. Reversions 至 the mean eventually take place especially when incomes are not rising. Yet most of the 市场 since 2007 has been artificially kept afloat with massive government intervention and I would say that we have a housing 市场 that is essentially a ward of the state but also have a burgeoning 学生贷款泡沫. If the housing 市场 or student 债务 市场s were so healthy, why is the private sector MIA in 借 ing action?
Make no mistake that since the 市场 melted down in 2007, the private mortgage 市场 has been nonexistent. While 至 tal first mortgage 债务 has declined by roughly $600 billion, the share of government loans has shot up by $1.1 trillion during this time:
的 government backed mortgage 市场 is the housing 市场. I was digging through reports regarding the GSEs and their activities and you will find the data fascinating:
您可以 see most of the MBS activity for the GSE 市场 came in 2009 and early 2010. What you are looking at above is the Federal Reserve actions in basically becoming the MBS 市场. In this timeframe, 房利美, 房地美, and Ginnie Mae ate up $1.25 trillion in MBS activity. This is why when you look at the first chart with government backed loans going up by $1.1 trillion from 2007 even though 至 tal mortgage losses have been significant with over 5,000,000已完成止赎.
最新数据显示，接管房地美和房利美的成本已经花费了1,870亿美元。当然离盈利还有很长的路要走 好老汉克·保尔森 告诉我们，我们会转弯。当前的抵押贷款体系和银行体系本质上是一种搅局者，它使美国人越来越多地背负债务，同时又使金融业的利润蒙受损失。看看上面的数据，告诉我私营部门在哪里？但是大型银行享有政府支持的所有特权，却将所有主要风险转移给了公众。有些人假装我们好像没有经历自金融危机以来最大的金融危机。 大萧条。 1,870亿美元绝非易事，这只是GSE的总营业额。还有其他数万亿美元的游戏，包括担保，将有毒废物转移给美联储，以及现在为低付定金的FHA产品提供保险。 FHA担保贷款 市场 is now an even bigger risk.
FHA完全由政府（也称为公众）支持，这正在酝酿中。的 FHA担保贷款的平均首付为4％ （仅比3.5％的首付金额高一点）。这里的荒谬之处是，首付4％的人与首付15％并接受FHA的人支付的钱相同。换句话说，从买方的角度来看，没有诱因降低风险较低的LTV比率，而这正是他们所做的。我们鼓励冒险的举债行为，请看上面的图表。这是在制定救助计划。哪位是前银行家的政府代表会告诉我们不要担心， FHA即将盈利?
令人难以置信的是，联邦住房管理局（FHA）为740万以上抵押贷款的抵押池提供了9.47％的严重拖欠率！这些贷款的15％至少要拖欠30天以上。与其承认明显的相似 Alt-A和次贷 在这种模式下，FHA只会使每月借贷变得更加昂贵，而不是 增加首付要求! All the talk of a healthy 市场 is nonsense with 10,000,000美国人 他们的抵押贷款仍在水下。即使这是全国名义上的最低点，再支持1万亿美元的可疑贷款并让美联储人为地将抵押贷款利率保持在这些水平，会有何影响？风险是其他泡沫。那些声称一切很好的人不会在一百万年内向一个赚15万美元的人在加利福尼亚的房屋上贷出70万美元，但他们对此表示完全满意。 FHA为这些贷款提供保险。道德风险极大。
So it is obvious looking at the data that pure targeted government 纾困 s and gimmicks in accounting rules are keeping the 市场 afloat. So what do we get for all this? A $187 billion price tag for taking over the GSEs, $1.25 trillion more in MBS 债务 shifted into the Fed balance sheet, and another 纾困 in the making with the FHA. Plus, we have had 5,000,000+ completed 止赎 since 2007 and the median price 至 day is $156,000 with a median household income of $50,000:
另一个巨大的债务泡沫已经形成。 助学贷款 市场s. I find it interesting that a 债务 市场 reaching $1 trillion in 债务 outstanding had little coverage from the Fed only until recently. 事实上，data on this 市场 from the Fed was only recently released in the last year or so. It used 至 be scattered and hard 至 put 至 gether. Now that we can put it 至 gether, you know exactly why this was kept under wraps:
的 student 债务 市场s are another fully backed government enterprise. 的 银行业 sector essentially is the middleman for government 抵押贷款 and government 助学贷款 债务 . 的 major profits go directly 至 the banks, even if they fail since they get giant salaries/bonuses regardless if the loans they make implode at some point. By the way, student 债务 defaults are soaring. Does this sound familiar? Saying the housing 市场 is reaching a bottom nationwide is no bold statement especially with the 3:1 income 至 price ratio. By the way, a bottom does not mean prices are now going 至 reverse. 的 real issue is how massive government intervention is and how close the big 银行业 sector is aligned with our political system. Have things really improved? It is interesting 至 read the comments since many readers are educated enough 至 realize how massively rigged the game is (and by default, unsustainable) yet in the next breath people are looking 至 purchase a rundown shack for 南加州$ 400,000或$ 500,000. We are starting 至 see the cheerleading coming out again but just like the last bubble, the silences on reliable household income data speaks volumes. All the above data simply shows an enormous 债务 game being held up by the government backed 市场s and default rates are uncomfortably high.Did 您 Enjoy 的 Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information