L.A. is the most unaffordable housing market in the entire country.  Beyond the pretense that everyone is rich and has 钱 stashed in their backyards being guarded by Chihuahuas with cubic zirconia necklaces, most in California are living deep in 债务.  Those 购买ing homes 至 day are either 投资人, wealthy foreigners, or locals leveraging 至 the max for that 很棒的废话窝棚.  什么 makes the LA/OC market the most unaffordable is that wages flat out do not justify current home prices.  Since LA is a 多数承租人县, it is important 至 look at dynamics in this group.  One study from UCLA found that LA renters devote nearly 50 percent of their income 至 rent.  Taco Tuesday isn’t only a baby boomer mainstay, it is a necessity 至 pay the rent.  The disconnect only got more profound over the last two years.  Housing prices in the LA/OC area went up by 28 percent while wages went up by 2 percent.  Thanks 至 maximum leverage loans, big investor demand, and low interest rates, people can 购买 a $700,000 crap shack and pretend they are truly rolling deep in cash.  All the data coming out is showing that many are flat out pretending and living paycheck 至 paycheck, even with expensive budgets.


很高兴看到更多的人看到真正的脱节。我们所看到的只是更多的钱被抽到了房地产行业。现在对垃圾棚屋提出的理由数量是2006年和2007年的最高水平。 光荣的交易 您可以拥有并成为我们的客人,花700,000美元购买一个需要进行重大改造的盒子,并将自己锁定在30年的抵押贷款中。

洛杉矶/ OC市场并不是唯一看到这种巨大脱节的市场。旧金山市场比SoCal香蕉更多,甚至出现了更大的脱节。看看过去两年的工资变化与房价变化:


这不仅发生在富裕地区。事实上,在过去的两年中,底特律可以以500美元的价格购买房屋,价格上涨了57%,而工资却上涨了4%。这在很大程度上受到了投资者的推动(就像上图中的许多其他领域一样)。旧金山的房价从本来很高的水平上涨了惊人的37%,而工资却上涨了7%。在总是阳光充沛的洛杉矶/ OC,价格上涨了28%,而工资却上涨了2%。然后我们惊讶地发现 像场景出租大决战.



Bubbles occur when prices rise because of irrational behavior.  Many people 购买ing in the LA/OC area are 购买ing with the underlying notion that prices will only continue 至 go up.  They are 购买ing their ugly crap shack in hopes they can build some equity and move into their semi-ugly crap shack and then finally into their dream property ladder property.  This idea that people 购买 and stay put is nonsense, at least when looking at data.  The fact that we have gained so many more renter households in California is merely a testament 至 people being unable 至 afford homes, even with 低首付贷款冲击市场.

销量仍然很低。您有很多婴儿潮一代看到他们成年的孩子回家,因为他们无法在当前的住房市场上竞争。至少他们可以跳到纯素食市场,一起品尝美味的沙拉,然后回到他们的烂摊子。同样,当您查看有关 托伦斯房屋块 you find that most people bought at reasonable prices compared 至 incomes at the time.  In fact, virtually the entire neighborhood would be priced out if they had 至 购买 至 day.  I’ve seen this in Pasadena, Huntington Beach, and Culver City where one older neighbor is walking into the house with 99 Cents Store only shopping bags and Wal-Mart bags while another is pulling into their new purchase with Whole Paychecks bags and a 租d Tesla plus the gift of paying 10 times more in 财产税es just because they were born at the wrong time.  It is funny how the anti-legislation crowd is more than happy 至 keep Prop 13 legislation as long as it 本efits them directly.  It is also the irony of San Francisco that in the 60s and 70s the city saw a young and largely poor artist crowd move in giving the city its vibe.  Now NIMBYism is in full effect and even the middle class is being pushed out.  Good luck being a regular artist in San Francisco and paying $4,000 a month for a studio full of roaches.  Even highly paid tech workers are 出租.

The market right now is running on fumes and extremely low sales volume is a reflection of the chart above.  那 is, wages just can’t support current home prices without massive mortgage 债务.  The investor crowd pulling back is having a big impact.  Then again having a taco truck and vegan store on the same corner is the LA/OC way.  But paying $ 700,000的垃圾屋 is different from 购买ing a $5 fusion taco.

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101条回应 至 “在住房方面,洛杉矶和奥兰治县地区变得更加难以负担:在过去两年中,房价上涨了28%,而工资上涨了2%。”

  • 布兰克芬勋爵

    像往常一样出色的文章。看起来像洛杉矶和OC竞技场’t the only ones in 泡沫 territory. From the chart, Atlanta and Houston saw 中位数 home prices rise almost 40% in the last two years! 那 is a 令人震惊的 number for areas that have 负担得起的 housing. It’对于整个一代人来说不幸的是,住房已经变成了赌场ala WallSt。

    • 上面比较的问题是’没有考虑价格相对于工资的位置的依据–它只是比较两个速度指标–这给人的印象是亚特兰大或休斯敦“bubble” is as relatively 意思ingful as an SF or LA 泡沫. Some markets like Atlanta overcorrected 至 a degree, LA undercorrected, and we’重新查看百分比变化,以便较大数量的较小百分比变化与较小数量的较大百分比变化一样重要。因此,有观点认为,相对于它的价值,SoCal的定价非常高,没有,休斯顿或亚特兰大’甚至接近“bubble”SoCal所在的地区’t and it’在您方便的清单上排名第一’t mention at a “shocking”57%。 57%的人回归基本面与28%和38%的从愚蠢到愚蠢的人大不相同。

      • 布兰克芬勋爵

        底特律 ’s number was not very 令人震惊的 since houses could be bought for $1000, now they are $1600. 您 conveniently picked Atlanta which you claim overcorrected. Houston did NOT overcorrect since it never really went into housing 泡沫 territory. However, the last two years has shown massive gains (almost 40%). For a city with slow and steady housing appreciation, you can’告诉我这个号码不是’t 令人震惊的! Big gains in short periods of time are a warning sign, 购买er beware!

      • Actually, you picked Atlanta and I responded in kind. The last 泡沫 was national in scope and included Houston. I stand by my claim that both markets overcorrected.

    • 保罗-(不是房地产经纪人)

      的平均售价“single family homes”内陆城市地区的价格开始接近或等于“single family homes’位于海岸附近(即海滩城市)。
      只要看一下过去两个月加利福尼亚州的历史价格“Bubble Events”,
      海滩城市… 那’只是不可能..但是发生了。

      • No…一直存在分歧…。圣伯尔尼/里弗赛德(San Bern / Riverside)稍有调整,但黄金时段却翻倍。它’现在是一种新的野兽,具有超级泡沫。

    • 还提到了丹佛。一世’我并不惊讶。我们这里的工作增长不错’工资绝对不能跟上房价。我怕我’在这里永远不会拥有房屋。

    • We’在我心中无疑再次制造了另一场衰退。这一切使我想起了1979-1980年,当时人们口袋里有钱,但没有’似乎没有任何购买力。

    • 科视Christie S

      注意房屋哑巴资产:应该购买租赁物业2009、2010、2011、2012年…您会喜欢所有这些统计信息…租房者!我喜欢我的租金/租金…life is great!

      • 想一想,你是单身妈妈。我不知道有人会怎样离开像你这样的仁慈的人。您的孩子一定很骄傲。

      • 哇,好笑,世界上所有的A洞似乎都随着其他人的不幸而繁荣起来。你真是个sh @#

  • 不幸的是,我刚刚购买的IE的比率更高。

  • As much as I agree that homes are overpriced, 我不’认为将房价升值与收入升值进行比较是公平的。让’面对现实,这与可负担性有关,利率是可负担性的最大组成部分。


    Also, the alternative rent must be considered. Sometimes 购买ing is the ‘less bad’ situation. 那 doesn’t 意思 it’s great.


    I sold in 2009 and have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for 泡沫 2.0 至 pop. But my fear is that maybe it won’t。利率可能会降低。政府可以制定另一个激励计划。哎呀,利率不要’正如许多其他国家已经证明的那样,甚至不必停在零。想象一下,负利率抵押贷款会对房价造成什么影响!

    什么’s different in 泡沫 2.0 is that lower interests rates are not part of NINJA loans or ARM’s…他们是真正的贷款利率贷款。因此,付款不会突然爆炸并使人们违约。

    I am not planning on 购买ing because I think prices are going 至 go up. I need a place 至 live, I need a write-off, and rent is sky-high in all decent areas of Socal. Buying is the lesser of two evils, IMHO.

    Also, you talk about $700K crap-shacks a lot. $700K does not 购买 you a crap-shack in OC. I saw a crap-shack yesterday that was $575K and there are very nice places 至 live for $700K. Still overpriced, IMHO, but not crap-shacks.

    • 洛杉矶县’s获得了70万美元的crapshacks,OC获得了50万美元的crapshacks,IE获得了30万美元的crapshacks。在该国其他大部分地区,它们的售价为10万美元。

    • I’m not a real estate expert by any stretch of the imagination, but I do have half a brain. I can discern that So Cal prices are out of sync relative 至 the income of the populace and relative 至 historical norms, perhaps with the exception of a few past 泡沫s.

      Which brings me 至 my next question- how can this not be a 泡沫? Maybe the reason for the 泡沫 is not the same as the reason for the last one (ARMs, NINJA loans etc). But if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, well, maybe it’s a duck!



      • Easy 钱 policies directed at home 债务ors fueled growth based upon fantasy economics. 那 was Bubble 1.0

        Easy 钱 policies directed at specuvestors fueled growth based upon fantasy economics. 那 is Bubble 2.0

        两个最重要的要素,即轻松赚钱和幻想,从Bubble 1移到了2。我还没有一个令人信服的理由,为什么2的结果与1会有实质性的不同。’所有人都在用借来的钱玩,以寻找不存在的基本面为基础的回报。基于Hopium的升值,无论是在您自己的房屋中还是在您的租金上限上,’一项投资策略。

      • 我爱你NihilistZerO。您一直用正确的话语不断表达对当前市场的怀疑,并向我保证我会坚持到底。

    • @加里

      The price of RE is at the heart of the 泡沫, not the quality of loans or purchases. In past crashes, exotic loans were not the main culprit. In addition, many of the RE purchases were made by financial institutions that are beholden 至 shareholders. If the ROI is not satisfactory, those shareholders will not idly stand by and ignore the opportunity cost.

    • 加里,我不确定那是什么意思。您’重新专注于树木,而我们’重新讨论关于森林的讨论。好像金融和货币投入是在真空中运作。利率计划的名义因素等等’不能改变潜在的真实生物,相反,它们只能掩盖或扭曲立即看到的东西。

      • 我的观点是,价格和利率在很长一段时间内都不会被禁止横盘整理,因为它们在目前的位置很可笑。


      • @加里: “哎呀,看看股市。仅仅因为库存高得离谱,并不意味着即将崩溃。”


      • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德





  • When 泡沫s are the norm, does that 意思 there are no more 泡沫s?

    • 霍华德·约翰逊

      那 is very thought provoking. I think the dr. Should do a post on this 至 pic.

    • 保罗-(不是房地产经纪人)

      NO —这意味着还有更多“Naive Suckers”被CROOKED REAL ESTATE经纪人/经纪人和抵押经纪人杀害。

  • 虽然还有许多荒谬的70万美元–我在西边列出了$ 900K的废话棚’m开始看到大量的减少,从220万美元减少到210万美元,从160万美元减少到150万美元,依此类推。尽管如此,价格仍然过高,尤其是在“hip”威尼斯,但卖方和代理商之间的人气似乎越来越高,他们不想成为出口的最后一个目的地。

    • 丁毫无疑问,要价之风已经发生了变化。一世’已经注意到了几个月。我几次’提出来的话,有些回应好像问没有意义–好像价格谈判101天以某种方式设置价格的一课只是为了展示。那里’巨大的定价错误断开了连接,导致该地区所有价格水平,翻转,自然,空头以及邻里类型的全面降低。它’表示什么’还没有被那些没有密切关注的人看到。

      • 在我所关注的城市中,有很多降价的地方,但我也看到房屋在几天之内的售价超过了要价。在这些情况下,我只能推断出他们有多个要约。


  • DHB,

    People doubling up. Too much spent on housing and transportation making new home 购买ers hard 至 find.

    什么 about the other elephant in the room? The drought.

  • 当伯特(Bert)说奥巴马医改会从RE中拿走钱时,许多博客嘲笑他,驳回了他的言论。尽管做出这一假设是合乎逻辑的,但以下官方数据和图表显示了奥巴马医改的大幅增加和可再生能源的减少。这是在汽油价格下跌的背景下发生的。


    由于夏季汽油价格将在相当稳定的工资水平下上涨,因此奥巴马医改将对预算产生更大影响。 GDP增长的大部分归功于Obamacare和GDP的计算方式。鉴于全球化和统一工资,奥巴马医改将成为骆驼背上的稻草。等一下并非所有的奥巴马医改条款都得到执行。奥巴马总统推迟了某些人的任期,以使经济更加悲惨。


    • 您 意思 Blurt? He has delusions of grandeur.

      • 哦,杰德,直到您可以整理出像布雷特一样有趣的东西,我’d建议您不要接受批评。我喜欢阅读他的材料,这使我对事物有了新的认识。另外,我通常不得不戴上帽,以了解他一半的知识’s saying.

      • 布莱特在哪里’s blog? I’d like 至 read it.

      • 哦,等等,那是“Bert was right” link?

    • He said more than OCare would take 钱 out of RE, he said that OCare (0-Care was his pejorative) would be THE reason for the next RE 泡沫 burst.



      • ACA实际上将使美联储通过国会将他们的头发拔掉。
        向...问好“1095” tax form, the “You Owe the IRS”您的补贴保险发票。
        因此,税收收入将从工作贫困的薪资阶层中暴跌。下次国会Klowns威胁要再次关闭政府时,三重魔咒将迫使美联储承诺“Japan like”试图掩盖行动。

    • 长期的O护理将对RE市场有利。哈佛大学的一项研究发现,62%的破产与大额医疗费用有关。 O-care包括每年最高限额的自付费用,使房主免于6位数的运营账单。这应该减少因手术而失去房屋的人数。

  • As housing prices are set at the margin, the fact that 75 or 80% of the population cannot afford the 中位数 priced house is not that important as long as the market clears, i.e. the number of houses for sale stays in balance with those being bought. The story I hear is that not a lot of housing is for sale nor is there a lot of new housing being built as compared 至 historical levels. 至于为什么更多的人没有利用高价的原因,这很好奇。 I recently read of people in the D.C area who wanted 至 do this found that downsizing was a wash, i.e. a new condo downtown cost as much as their house in Fairfax or Montgomery County and the same was true were they 至 want 购买 a highrise condo in Florida. Only if you are willing 至 move out of the more desirable urban enclaves can you take your equity with you.

    • “至于为什么更多的人没有利用高价的原因,这很好奇。” 我不’t think it’s curious at all (assuming you are referring 至 prospective sellers), and you even solved the mystery in your own post. Even if people sold, prices are 至 o high for them 至 want 至 购买 after they sell. So they stay put. If I owned anything worth a significant amount of 钱 (say, $800k or more), I would sell now and rent a smaller place until prices (hopefully) adjust down the road. But 我不’t, so that’并不是一个真正的问题。

      • 支柱13阻止人们沿着街走。为什么当您增加税收会抵消买卖价差时缩小规模?

      • 好点,杰夫。支柱13没有’为了解决最初的问题,据称是要纠正(限制政府支出),而是产生了新的问题,例如您提到的问题。



      • I’我举个例子’我不卖。在2000年以50万的价格买了房子。现在价值约150万,但在过去9年中一直在出租。一世’m single. I’d至少支付30万美元的资本收益。 1031交易所是一个冒险的提议,因为我’d。必须在45天内更换合适的产品。一世 ’d want 至 购买 another rental, but can’证明整个事情是合理的,因为我有多个家庭’我一直在看我的价格范围,扣除物业税后’d在逐步购买的基础上为他们付款,我可能不会’比我现在租独户房屋要多得多。至少租一个SFR是’像多户家庭单位一样受租金控制。

    • And the economy will continue 至 struggle partly because RE-related economic activity remains weak. Those who 购买 overpriced RE will drastically curtail other expenses just 至 handle housing expenses.

      A vibrant RE market requires a healthy dose of entry-level 购买ers 至 soak the inventory from those wishing 至 move. Investors have already pulled back. With future generations already being shut out, who absorb the inevitable inventory from the older generation?

    • It’s not curious at all. They have 至 购买 back into the same market they sell into for a replacement and they don’t trust the market. 那 and there are still a shit load of people upside down while banks continue 至 be allowed 至 not account for non performing “assets.” It’s all self-reinforcing. 那’当没有市场时会发生什么’允许。有人在这里说,把毛巾扔进去,在鼻子紧闭的情况下走进下水道。

    • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德



  • Re 底特律 : It’当房屋起价仅为1,000美元时,房屋价格很容易上涨57.1%…

    • It’s true you can 购买 1000 dollar houses in 底特律 . 什么 they fail 至 mention is the 财产税es on it are 8k per year.

      • Property taxes put 向下压力 on prices, therefore providing counterbalance, so the point is moot. 那’支持者13的支持者’t dare mention.

      • 亲爱的,小心解释一下“downward pressure”? I’我敢肯定,提案13的结果相反。 d / t那些不愿意出售的人较少’不想放弃低税制…然后是关于供求的东西。一世’m interested 至 hear how Prop 13 would cause 向下压力.

      • Property taxes put 向下压力 on prices, therefore providing counterbalance, so the point is moot. 那’支持者13的支持者’t dare mention.

        亲爱的,小心解释一下“downward pressure”? I’m pretty sure Prop 13 has the opposite result. There are fewer properties for sale d/t folks who don’不想放弃低税制… then something-something about supply and demand. I’m interested 至 hear how Prop 13 would cause 向下压力.

        @Jeff:我想你对Siggy读错了’s post. I believe he is effectively stating that, without Prop 13, higher 财产税es would put 向下压力 on prices. Which is hard 至 argue against.

        I’m kind of undecided about Prop 13. On the one hand, I know I will 本efit from it someday (and even now 至 a small extent on a condo rental I own). On the other hand, it would be nice 至 购买 a reasonably-priced house, which might come 至 fruition if Prop 13 were repealed. And all home owners would pay their fair share (as 西吉 likes 至 point out).

  • 说到娱乐场,如果不到4年前以这个价格或接近要价的价格收盘,那么谁在不到4年的时间里购买了这个地方,都将赢得近50万美元的利润大奖: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/108-S-Wetherly-Dr-90048/unit-2/home/39642159


  • 南加州房屋拆迁的最大问题也许是对未来的影响。人们今天将所有收入花在这些昂贵的地区上,正在牺牲自己的未来!从某些方面来看,几乎80%的美国人’的储蓄或退休金不到10万美元!仅仅为了今天而生活,无论是困境还是意图,都意味着一个人’的未来日新月异。正如作者多次指出的那样,南加州到处都是居住在百万美元住房中的老年人,他们不得不吃狗和猫的食物,因为他们除了被捆绑在家里以外,没有钱!

  • 这里’s a thought…
    scrutinize the 购买er’使用合理的贷款标准偿还债务的能力。

    • 这不会发生,因为地方政府依赖财产税,因此也依赖房地产价格…他们对使价格进一步上涨具有既得利益。

      唯一的出路是使财产税独立于财产价值….as it should be

  • 我不’我们不知道如何看待当前的房屋,股市等天价高价,而这些价格已被美联储的宽松货币/低利率政策再次抬高。也许建造者知道我们不知道的事情’他们不愿出门再建一堆房屋,因为它们将在熔化2.0中再次被放下。或者,也许他们只是没有为价格回升做好准备,所以不要’没有便宜的泥土可以建立。谁知道????
    It is the same everywhere. Low volume on homes for sale as frankly, 我不’认为大多数人的收入不再上涨。因此,这是新常态,除非再次使整个市场陷入困境。

    • “也许建造者知道我们所不知道的事情,并且不愿意出去建造一堆房屋,因为他们将在崩溃2.0版中再次受骗。”


  • 收入中位数相对于房价而言是衡量相对性的一种糟糕方法,并且是这些故事中的巨大缺陷。



    • 真正。如果有5个失业者在酒吧喝酒,他们的中位数收入就很低。但是,如果比尔·盖茨加入并加入他们的行列,律师协会中6个人的平均收入现在将达到数十亿美元!

      • 更改“median” 至 “mean”你会是正确的。

      • 比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)每年无所作为的5个人的中位数*什么都没有。我想你是说“mean” or average.

      • 不,他们的中位数收入仍然很低。他们的平均收入将达到数十亿美元。

      • 海伍德·贾布洛米

        您’re confusing 中位数 with 意思. Bill would have 至 bring 4 NFL team owners 至 raise the 中位数 that much.

      • 有人将中位数与平均值相混淆。如果一个酒吧中有5个失业人员并且中位数(总人口的中位数)收入为零,那么Billy会加入其中;中位数收入仍为零。平均值会改变,但中位数不会改变…

    • 中位数收入’t matter because:

      *提案13允许退休的婴儿潮一代沉迷于价格过高的废话棚(唯一对此不满的人)’t live in SoCal…那些确实知道这些邻居的人)

      • @德里克
        没有人会质疑可再生能源的高收入比例。有争议的是,这在多大程度上可以使当前的泡沫膨胀。对于每组挤入SFH租金的成年人,租房者的数量都会减少。最终导致空缺和价格降低。更重要的是“buy”整个SoCal的可再生能源租赁均价方面在2012年左右消失了。’足够的洗钱寡头来维持庞氏骗局。您可以’t have a functional RE market without first time 购买ers and along with lack of income lack of rental parity kills the first timer market. As the Doc has covered previously, NINJA Neg Am loans made mortgage payments BELOW rental parity last cycle. 那 isn’不会再发生。因此,当炒股者失去卖出泡沫的动力时,就被刺破了。我们’re now watching the deflation unfold. Those that have 至 sell are growing right as those that can 购买 are shrinking. We had a 30% plus run up in 2 years on non-existent volume. We can have just as sharp a drop. If 5 houses must be sold and there are 4 购买ers that can afford -10% of peak and the forth can only afford -40% peak the 5th seller is boned. Do the math on what the 中位数 price would be then. Expect this micro economic phenomenon 至 play out very quickly…

      • 没关系拉链的平均收入数字,看看平均支出。您对这里的地下经济是正确的,它和希腊一样糟糕,我们将以同样的方式结束。美好时光将继续滚动。将要离开城镇的是中产阶级的工资奴隶。 http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/features/Contract-to-cheat/Labor-law-dodge-hurts-taxpayers-and-workers.html?brand=slo

  • 我们不’t have a rational real estate market anymore especially in Southern California. 我们不’也不再有理性的经济。新常态只是泡沫。 RE,股票市场,债券市场等。泡沫最终弹出。总是。只需回顾一下历史,然后向我展示一次他们没有的历史。只是时间问题。只要获胜,人们就很容易用集体思维为自己辩护。当你输了的时候更容易责怪别人。房地产泡沫始于1995年,大约一半的空气于2009年夏末放出。随着投资集团的涌入,这种泡沫开始重新膨胀,并在2013年开始更加严重。在TBTF和政府的帮助下,大美元没有风险。真是惊喜现在,我们有所有泡沫的母亲在等着弹出。所有的迹象都在那里。武器,仅利息,FHA,下跌3%,创纪录的低利率,抵押支持证券,租赁支持证券,翻转房屋电视节目,重塑电视节目,停滞工资,外国投资等。等等。只需等待NINJA贷款即可出现,一只大鱼跳上船去另一种资产,分类,同时使可再生能源市场做空。




  • 泰隆,在这里’s a better thought….
    对购置住房的秃capital资本/对冲基金施加巨大的限制。有钱人和有联系的人变得更富有 … They were the 1st 至 be able 至 borrow larges sums and then go on a 购买ing frenzy paying 100% in cash. This not only drove prices higher but, anyone looking for a place 至 购买 and live in couldn’竞争(像我一样)。当然,真正的疯子是美联储,他降低了利率,迫使埃维沃尼在其他地方寻求更好的货币回报。在房地产市场。因为,现在有一小群人拥有如此多的财产,所以他们对租金有更多的控制权。确实,我们唯一的希望是提高利率并迫使其上限利率下降…..除非他们继续提高租金。我认为我们已经很长时间了。我看到的唯一乐趣是,如果利率出人意料地急剧而迅速地增加,然后又出现了抛售狂潮。他们出售公寓的好运’s that have a high owner/occupant ratio, not a problem when u have a 购买er paying all cash… just a thought.

    • @肯尼


    • 林恩·蔡斯(Lynn Chase)


  • @泰隆

    Doing loans for a living, the move up 购买ers have the 20% down the majority of the time. Lower down payments are 至 help people get into their fist home (not a bad thing).

    • Move up 购买ers have almost no alternative 至 put the 钱 anyplace else. It is a permanent feature of this voodoo fiat economy. A rational actor would put as little skin in the game as possible, but nothing else offers any thing close 至 the same store of value.

  • 这些是我最好的帖子’已经读了一段时间,但我’我看到了不同的潮起潮落。
    I compare Southern California and Bay Area prices 至 other high priced places on the planet and I see a bargain here. The fact that most of us have do do a serious stretch 至 购买 a $700K crapshack makes no difference whatsoever. 您 either stretch, rent or move. California, the government and the sellers don’小心。我们现在必须将自己视为一个遍布全球的市场,有成千上万的人偷偷溜进去或获得H1-B签证并胜过您。它没有’t help that there’s no supply, but 房屋建筑商 are nothing if not rational. Why would they run through government gauntlets 至 build new houses on nearly non-existent land and a dubious supply of 购买ers?
    人们看到工资停滞不前,是因为有大量的工人供我们竞争。如果您认为来这里的拉美裔人正在作为园丁和田野小手工作,那么让我成为第一个对您不屑一顾的人。如果您发现有木匠,电工和水管工的家庭建筑景象,我’我敢打赌第一语言不会有英语。上周我在市区的农产品市场上见过顾客,只有最小的几个不会说西班牙语。同时,这里和海湾地区的高科技产业正以最快的速度进口持有H1-B签证的人,以节省工资。一世’我们已经看到了几项研究,这些研究表明过去8年左右的所有工作增长都因移民的增加而消失。工作中的供求关系。如果您想了解加利福尼亚沿海地区的未来,那么您只需要看圣巴巴拉(Santa Barbara)。没有负担得起的东西–期。人们会杀害,找到价值70万美元的crapshack,’在那里。由于没有孩子的年轻家庭,学校正在缩减。您可以在101号早上从维特纳(Ventura)和奥克斯纳德(Oxnard)抬头看到在圣塔芭芭拉工作的所有人员。它’是一个富裕而僵化的飞地。我认为20年后加州沿海地区将是这样。

    • Fensterlips,您是100%正确的。

    • 啊,是的,很好’每个人都想住在这里叙事。现在有了国际!您知道在国际水域中将筏搭船时会发生什么情况吗?当这些国际水域起伏不定时,它就陷入了风暴。没有免费乘车服务,即使是全球国际一流的沿海和自吹自passengers的旅客也是如此。

    • 其他人’琼斯(S Jones)会在即将到来的Prime House Price Crash撞伤你的下巴。

  • 忍受这一切的原因是加利福尼亚仍然是世界上最好的居住地之一。

    • 不,许多人忍受它的原因是由于更大的质量具有更强的重力。许多笨拙的笨拙彼此跟随,以成倍的数量增加到SoCal。

  • 什么 this country needs is a good war.

    • “War is a racket…它是为极少数人的利益而进行的,却以极少数人为代价。出于战争,一些人发了大财。” —梅德利·D·巴特勒将军

    • 就像我们在袭击珍珠港之前就与日本进行的战争一样,我们已经与俄罗斯发生了金融战争。


    • 恩,我想我们’re in one already…一场全面的房地产量化宽松,利率为0.5%,十年庞氏VI瑞尼尔/资产财富泵和价值保护战争…。在中低端至高级的房地产市场中,全球范围内的规模不断壮大的年轻专业人士不断自我完善。



    • 不,它需要一个良好的清洁环境,并且需要成年人来主持演出,而不是让每一个惹麻烦的学术界或社区组织者陷入困境,他们都试图发动麻烦。联邦互惠为隐蔽携带!暴徒?射击’em. BANG, they’再死了。如果他们发送更多,我们’继续射击直到他们’re all gone.

  • 量化宽松深渊


    Keep in mind this is a 臀部ster publication, promoting these neighborhoods. And dont forget there are 75 million Millenials in the US 至 day with a 中位数 income of $61K.




    • 你在跟我开玩笑吗?我想知道洛杉矶周刊的作家在吸烟吗?在10个最佳租房中,有8个是真正的贫民窟。我想知道他们是否去过西亚当斯,更不用说在那里过夜了。我已经看到了,然后看到一个多人高的风筝在仅PJ底部的亚当斯(Adams)上奔流而过,在一天中途出现了一个斗篷。由于数十年的推迟维护和疏忽,大多数房屋应被拆除。一世’宁可先在叙利亚或伊拉克租房,然后再租西亚当斯。

      • 与任何报纸一样,《洛杉矶周刊》的编辑内容也遭受了损失。早在1990年代,他们就有一个庞大的分类广告版块。 Craigslist杀死了它,咬了一口’s income.



        原创文章更少。它与姐妹出版物(例如纽约)共享一些编辑内容’s Village Voice).


      • 嗯是的另一个顶级x单击诱饵列表。底部桶刮擦类型的东西,让人想起Buzzfeed之一。

  • 这些东西在中国也开始受到关注。


    In the 意思time, another crapshack :

  • 阅读了整个《 Realty Trac》研究报告后,丹佛与洛杉矶,旧金山和波士顿一起被提及为工资/房价差距持续扩大的城市。事实是,丹佛有一些负担得起的住所,但他们’不安全。另外,现在在那里’s so few homes 至 choose from that 购买ers are skipping contingencies…建议我们跳过检查,’部分原因是我们放弃了。我可以’把70k放在某物上而不知道我在做什么’我真的得到了。害怕。

  • 我认为最重要的事实是,很多人都想住在这里。没有很多地方可以居住。这等于高价。



  • 根据我的观察,今年春季/夏季将成为卖家’s market. Increased demand and lower inventory equals higher prices and bidding wars. I see many properties in my neighborhood getting ready for market. I think many sellers see this as the last chance 至 cash out before the feds increase rates and effectively decrease 购买ing power of potential 购买ers.

    • 那’是我在附近看到的东西。在上市或在一两个星期内出售后不久,就有许多房屋被修饰。我是说快’s listed and then someone is moving in right away. The magic price point seems 至 be $850-$950K for a 3 or 4 bedroom. Just like last time, prices are going 至 keep going up so we should 购买 now before we are priced out forever. After all home prices are increasing much faster than our income and savings rate.

      如果您在南湾游船,那里’s a TON of construction activity, especially along the beach in Manhattan and Hermosa. Mostly teardowns with large brand new homes being constructed. This smells just like 2008. And 我不’不知道该怎么解释。一世’我只是想花一两年时间看看会发生什么。洛杉矶很好玩,但我’我不相信我要留在这里。

    • 不过,问题在于我认为美联储的增长步伐会很慢。所以你赢了’他们每次见面可能会增加四分之一。根据经济状况,可能更像是每6个月或6年或更长时间。 -所有IMO。

    • 这里唯一的另一个问题是说“tOp”即将到来,我相信许多银行可能会希望在仍能赎回的情况下从止赎房屋中套现。




  • Unfortunately, the system is rigged 至 force people 至 购买 homes or invest otherwise lose it all 至 the IRS. I am in a situation where I am considering 购买ing a home just for the tax breaks. I have tried 至 stay out of the game and rent but since renters get nothing except screwed by the IRS I now need 至 considering 购买ing. And after following this blob since 2008 and we are still talking about the poor state we are in, they have one and this will never change. Play their game or get screwed.

发表回覆 保罗-(不是房地产经纪人)

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