的resurgence of the low down payment market – 的number of FHA保险贷款 has doubled from Q2 of 2007 至 Q2 of 2012.

的dramatic rise in FHA保险贷款 在历史低利率时期,这证明了当前美国经济的两个关键方面。第一点是,许多美国家庭无力为住房支付足够的首付。忘记了历史上20%的首付,但即使只有10%的首付,许多家庭也无法负担。第二点是美国经济仍然依靠杠杆。债务是最好的缓和剂,但正如我们看到的低抵押贷款利率,该国现在设定了一个预期低利率的门槛。作为一个案例,我们现在看到FHA担保贷款在房地产市场中起着重要作用。自2007年第二季度以来,FHA未偿还担保贷款的数量增加了一倍以上。如果他们没有大量违约,这将不是一个问题。

FHA通往轻松货币贷款的怀旧桥梁

There is little doubt 那 FHA保险贷款 are plugging the bottom end of the market.  FHA loans were never intended 至 be a major player in the overall housing market.  In a recent MBA survey 那 covers roughly 88 percent of all outstanding 抵押贷款 we find the following:

FHA贷款未偿

2007年第2季度:3,030,214

2012年第2季度:6,827,727 

在这短时间内 FHA保险贷款 more than doubled.  的benefit?  FHA loans require a miniscule 3.5 percent down payment and this is what most typically jump into the market with.  Nonsense chatter 那 people go in with more down payment funds is just not shown in the facts.  Most people 那 use FHA loans use them for the following reasons:

-首付资金不足

-最大的杠杆作用

-风险很小

FHA受保贷款本质上是房屋的看涨期权。考虑一下这样一个事实,即出售房屋将使房主花费大约5%至6%的费用,因此在考虑出售成本的情况下,FHA买家马上就处于负资产状况。价格急剧下降人们所承受的资金风险较小。为什么这些贷款的需求会如此之高?您可以获得20%的首付,优惠的利率且无需抵押保险的常规抵押。由于违约率上升,抵押保险现在变得越来越昂贵。不认为这是真的吗?让我们看看抵押产品的严重拖欠率:

拖欠贷款

虽然优质抵押贷款的严重违约率为4.98%,但联邦住房管理局的贷款却高达惊人的9%。鉴于这是最近一直在蓬勃发展的贷款产品,所以这个数字非常高。次级抵押贷款在抵押贷款市场中正在逐渐减少。 2007年,次级贷款占所有未偿贷款的14%,而如今,它们已降至9%,并且还在下降。但是,2007年FHA贷款占所有贷款的6%,现在已占所有未偿贷款的16%。我们应该担心拖欠率,因为我们会为此感到困惑。当然,不足以节省3.5%的钱购买住房的许多人更有可能遇到财务问题并增加了新的住房类别,这不足为奇。 不良库存.

低利率和低首付产品在全国范围内为房价提供支撑。例如,让我们为您在全国范围内的典型房屋运行每月付款:

全国购房

考虑到50,000美元的典型家庭收入,180,000美元的住房占3.5% FHA保险贷款 看起来不会过多地增加预算。运行一个在加利福尼亚州价值50万美元的房屋的数据:

购买家用鞋

Notice how high 那 PMI is?  This is how many in SoCal are squeezing into places and creating bidding wars with the 低库存 那 is being seen on the MLS.  的low inventory is not a creation of a booming economy but by number games being pushed by the Federal government and Fed.  的fact 那 over 9 percent of FHA outstanding loans are seriously delinquent (nearly 7,000,000 至 tal FHA贷款未偿) should we simply continue giving out low down payment loans for the sake of getting people into homes?  Clearly something is up here because prime conventional loans with higher down payments are performing much better.

正如我们在上一篇文章中讨论的 低利率 are already hurting households in other less obvious ways.  这能持续多久?  Hard 至 tell but the fact 那 mortgage insurance rates zoomed up this summer in a hot selling season should tell you 那 the underlying fundamentals of the economy are still shaky.  Also, 如果FHA的担保贷款这么好,为什么您不看到华尔街的银行跳出来用自己的钱向美国公众提供3.5%的首付贷款呢?  Currently the entire mortgage market is fueled by government backed products.

Did You Enjoy 的Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information.

Did You Enjoy 的Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information





79个回答 至 “The resurgence of the low down payment market – 的number of FHA保险贷款 has doubled from Q2 of 2007 至 Q2 of 2012.”

  • $ 3,087是付款。其中很大一部分是可扣税的。所以,如果您认为自己’再收入不会很快消失,这就是’现在吸引了许多租金上涨的买家。

    • 实际上,大约$ 1,800-1,900是可扣税的(贷款的利息部分和RE税)。所以,我们’重新计算了当年的利息约为$ 16,000(使用Dr使用的3.4%利率)和$ 6,000的物业税。让’只是说所得税是2500美元。

      因此,我们对这所房子的扣除总额约为$ 26k(I’会为DMV费用和慈善捐款投入一些)。由于标准扣除额为$ 11,900,因此从购房中扣除的前$ 8,000左右为“lost”超过该数量的方式。 $ 22,000–8,000 = 14,000美元的税收优惠。乘以30%(美联储25%,加拿大/州约5美元),我们每年可获得4,200美元的税收优惠,即每月350美元。如果您的调整后总收入远低于110,000美元,那么鉴于您的收入减少得更多’只能削减15%的联邦税率。

      有太多因素要考虑,但我认为’s important for people 至 understand 那 the tax benefits are, in general, a fairly minimal part of the equation given how 低利率 are these days.

      我知道我们’re talking California, but I would bet 钱 那 more people don’t even exceed the standard deduction in mid-west states (Texas, especially) 那 are purchasing 至 day.

      • Agreed, another example of a nation 那 can’做数学。我个人不会’花1000节省200税,但是有人会。更糟糕的是,大多数人将报税表视为已发现的钱,只是将其修补掉。很多傻瓜与很多钱分开。

      • thanks for clearing 那 up 杰夫 –人们总是听到有关购房的巨大税收优惠,但’t realize it’被过度炒作,不如吹捧那么有价值。

      • 德克萨斯州不是中西部。

        的Midwest is these twelve states, and only these twelve states:

        密西根州
        俄亥俄
        印第安那州
        伊利诺伊州
        威斯康星州
        明尼苏达州
        爱荷华州
        密苏里州
        北达科他州
        南达科他州
        内布拉斯加
        堪萨斯州

    • Whatever you get back from the IRS/Sacramento goes 对 back out the door 至 pay 财产税es….

  • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

    看来HB医生迟到了。早在2003年,阳光普照的南加州就采用了80/20贷款(80%的第一抵押,20%的第二抵押,零首付)。

    到2008年夏末,标准的是80/20贷款(100%融资/零首付)。

    即使在今天,我仍然知道许多夫妇最近在SoCal中获得抵押贷款,尽管这些人有20%的现金支付能力,但银行仍试图迫使他们选择3.5%的FHA路线。

  • HB博士

    一如既往的出色。在阅读您的一篇较旧的帖子时,我遇到了这个问题…。这是Gman在2009年发布的Youtube视频。我确实大声笑了。

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

  • 输给了Ditech!

    Wake me when they start the 125% liar loans again. Surely 那 will mark the bottom.

    / sarc

  • 自从六月我离开度假之前,我刚刚从我在西湖村附近的第一次夜行中回来。就在我附近的街道上,有两间我离开时被占用的房屋,现在已经空了。其中一对是一对夫妇,他们在房子里住了17年。这个家伙是一个受欢迎的电视节目的作家,有一个女儿在上大学。他们以前每年感恩节周末都有开放日。综合和扎实的上层中产阶级。他们的房子旁边的房子是两年前由离婚者购买的,在那里她与三个十几岁的儿子住在一起。今晚,两个家’草坪已经死了。作家的前院有轮胎痕迹。’的家。外卖容器和啤酒瓶散落在两个房屋周围。

    In talking with the HOA president of our neighborhood before I went on vacation, I learned 那 50% of the homes in my neighborhood are now not owner occupied. Most of those homes are now 租金. However, a good portion of these “rentals”要么拖欠抵押贷款(默认情​​况下是抵押贷款),要么是现在由银行拥有,其中一些由银行出租给租户。我会说我附近的房屋中有15%被废弃了。

    These homes were $750,000 on the low end 至 $1,050,000 in 2006/2007. Now, literally, my neighborhood is turning into a low end dumpy neighborhood. This is very difficult for me 至 digest and frankly unbelievable 至 me. I used 至 be very proud 至 live here. Our 至 wn is still a prosperous place, but so many people have bailed 那 it is no longer the almost Utopian California dream place it was even two years ago.

    Sorry 那 my post is off 至 pic. 我不’t see any of the housing 复苏 那 I read about elsewhere happening here.

    • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

      请参阅我上面的文章,关于80/20贷款和100%融资。

      1.)Glass-Stegall在1999年被废除
      2.) 的Bush Administration allowed the 抵押业 至 自我调节 itself in 2002
      3.)美联储在2003年将抵押贷款利率提高到5%

      These are the three key events 那 caused the housing bubble. What you are seeing in Westlake Village is the result of #2 and 100% financing. These would be “strategic defaults”. Since most SoCal 抵押贷款 from 2003 至 October 2008 were 100% financed, now 那 those same homes are positively underwater, what you are witnessing is what happened in Texas when the S&发生了危机:即叮当邮件

      • 4.)数学技能差&牧羊人的心态。

      • 恩斯特·B。

        请说明废除Glass-Stegall与抵押贷款泡沫有何关系。左撇子们总是引用废除格拉斯-斯蒂格尔的说法,好像它解释了从房地产泡沫到运动员的每一个坏事’的脚。我怀疑你没有’甚至都不知道Glass-Stegall做了什么,为什么取消了它,或者为什么奥巴马没有试图恢复它。

        而且,很抱歉,但是布什政府在“mortgage industry”规。如果你喜欢克林顿’的规定,你喜欢布什 ’s 至 o. 的only thing the Bush Administration tried 至 was rein in Freddie and Fannie. Unfortunately, Barney Frank shot 那 idea down. I bet you can’不能确定布什政府期间所做的单一监管变更。有什么大“self-regulation”我不断听到的变化?

        It’s true 那 Fannie and Freddie average mortgage rates dipped 至 a 5 handle (but NOT 至 5%) in June of 2003. But 那 was only Fannie and Freddie rates. Individual private 抵押贷款 may have gotten 那 low (I don’t know) but not on average. So what conclusions do you draw from this fact? What are you trying 至 say? 的Federal Reserve has pushed mortgage rates 至 a 3 handle under Obama. Is this good or bad?

      • 杰森·埃默里(Jason Emery)

        据我所知,恩斯特和bmc你们都错过了布什总统对房地产泡沫的主要贡献。这两个GSE分别从1968年的房利美(Fannie Mae)和1970年的房地美(Freddie Mac,我认为)开始’仅得到了政府的默示支持。这暗示着他们在联邦政府的信贷额度。我认为这也很低,只有几十亿美元(不确定金额)。

        但是,随着90年代后期规模的爆炸式增长’s and up until the housing bubble 至 p, there was the assumption 那 their bonds should be triple A rated, since every one believed 那 the government would bail out bondholders if a collapse happened. It did and they were bailed out by the American taxpayers on Bush’s watch.

        Bush should have stepped in at some point early in his presidency and said 那 GSE bondholders are on their own and 那 no taxpayer funds would ever be used 至 bail them out, if the mortgage market ever went sour. Of course he said nothing, even as these agencies went from the hundreds of billions into the trillions in retained portfolio value.

        由于房利美和房地美形成了证券化抵押贷款市场的核心,因此这是形成房地产泡沫的关键因素之一。

      • 欧内斯特– let’别忘了其他一些主要因素:

        1)有利于整个贷款的证券化,同时取消对银行的杠杆限制。它比Glass-S大很多倍。这导致系统中大量的资金可用性和速度(当他们谈论影子银行系统时就是这样)。这扩大了“ability 至 demand”因为当收入稳定时,住房价格受到信贷的限制。
        2)大力推动扩张“房屋所有权的优点”包括强迫贷方放贷到不良地区和“iffy”学分。这极大地增加了“able 至 demand”在收入保持稳定的同时,帮助住房价格上涨的房屋。
        3) 的blind eye 至 issues at the agencies which along with banks were functioning on government policy (falls under “ability 至 demand”).

        如果将您自己的政策与这些政策结合在一起(这是两党共事的),您会开始在链接中看到政策的骨架。考虑一下2000年泡沫破灭后工资持平/下降的情况。您如何使经济再次发展–使用传统上在战后恢复中发挥作用的住房。推动所有杠杆并开放资本仓库。人们将购买房屋,抬高价格,为动产购买者注入现金来购买更大的房屋/支出,并刺激建筑工程以填补漏洞,直到收入再次上升并且事情解决为止(增加房屋的生活成本,显然工资需要也增加了,而且很高兴的是,养老金/福利的CPI方程都基于租金等价物,因此它不会’露面并伤害那一边)。

        上述政策的一个问题…it didn’而不是工作,而是让人们在传统上最大的杠杆投资中承担巨额亏损。当个人消费占地球最大经济体的70%时…在这些人的资产负债表中造成了很大的减速。

        道德– sometimes it’最好偶尔尝试一次应有的小搏动,而不是尝试将其推开并避免任何/所有的痛苦,直到最终它崩溃并向您内爆为止。这是政府和人民需要再次学习的东西。

      • bmcburney
        Recovered Republican here. Bush 43 had a lot 至 do with the housing bubble. He did a speech on the 屏障 of down payments getting in the way of 的American Dream. If you want 至 see footage of his housing speech, watch the documentary 过量d, where he fumbles through a really bad speech. Bush started the 纾困s. He was the Liar In Chief and is part blame, along with the current Liar In Chief. Free At Last, Political Atheist now.

      • 您错过了导致房地产泡沫的最大因素….the 1997 Tax Reform Act which allowed married couples 至 exclude up 至 $500,000 of Capital Gains if they only stayed in a house for 2 years.How many people do you think would have been bouncing in and out of houses every 2 years if they had 至 pay the Capital gains on every sale?Before 1997 people only had a 1 time exemption over the age of 55.They should have left it 那 way….

    • 即时战略
      Hi neighbor, Thousand Oaks gal here. TO is in transition itself. 的criminal invaders have arrived. Having bailed out of the SFV in 1984, the patterns we ran from have caught up with the Conejo Valley. Housing is a mess here. Rentals in areas where homeownership onced made life great, are turning into boarding houses, and the congestion of people, cars, and lifestyles, have turned it not so upper-middle anymore. .

      我们在找房子(现金&关闭),然后开始寻找其他地方。

      我记得60年代后期的WLV’s and 70’s。我的家人搬到那里生活在天堂。我为您的职位感到难过,但嘿,真相很令人痛心。我的家人住在第一街区。

      • 我们住在同一个城镇吗?一世’我去过T.O.二十多年的避风港’没看到您所说的那种犯罪分子(除了高速公路下方的肮脏区域外,’ve一直如此)。是的,止赎房屋更多,许多街区(包括我自己相当便宜的一个街区)都有一两个空置房屋,但是’几乎没有后世界末日的场景,院子里堆满了垃圾,第8节的转换和暴徒进入– at least 我不’没看到它,我一直都在Conejo周围骑车和骑自行车。

      • 非政治学家
        我们在小山上出售了4,000平方英尺,可看到美丽的房屋,并在T.O的贫民区租房。大量非法分子入侵该镇。我姐姐是一位老师,有她没有遇到的问题’6年前的CVUSD。 T.O.的部分还可以(暂时),但我每天都住。您显然在T.O找到了一个最佳选择。我们只是想要便宜的租金,直到找到我们的现金&关闭家。人口结构正在发生变化。 TO何时在相当不错的社区中开设了一个冰毒实验室?那发生在几年前的Arboles上。我们以前的邻居在联邦调查局工作。我对什么很了解’s up.

    • 我看到了同样的情况。我的邻居正变成两年前在大西洋中描述的贫民窟。上周末我拜访了三位建筑商。通过FHA和建筑公司或其他来源提供的其他赠品,您仍然可以买到40万至55万美元的房屋,几乎没有任何收益。“incentives.” It’如果您是资深人士,则更加轻松。

      我不’看不到租金上涨。恰好相反;什么’s more, it’s harder then ever 至 evict and the repair costs and time 至 repair take 那 rental off the market for months. For all these reasons and others —失业,食品券使用,零售额下降,购物中心的门店面等— 我不’t see any turn around in the housing correction. Goldman and Deutsch Bank both said the house prices will continue 至 fall as long as unemployment stays high. Looks 那 way 至 me.

    • I also live in WV and have for 8 years as a renter. Most houses on my street are 租金 and at least one neighbor 丢失 his job. However, local 房地产经纪人 have created the belief 那 a “recovery” (return 至 crazy prices of 2006) is underway. I know of folks who are trying 至 buy and lose out in bidding wars. And I see empty houses everywhere 那 are not shown as inventory. Major manipulation.

      • Who knew so many people from WLV read Dr. Housing bubble? Just like 戴夫 we have been in Newbury Park (Conejo Valley) 出租 for 8 years. We have seen a 200K price deductions from the high. Just fustrated 那 it is taking so long for the homes 至 show up on the market. Wasn’他们是否谈论住房库存增加和秋季价格下降?你的评论。

      • HI 山谷女孩
        我们喜欢纽伯里公园的部分地区,’t into PUDs anymore. Wendy Dr has such great lots, but 那 Casa Conejo tract ‘平方尺对我们来说太小了。我们上次购买差点在Deer Ridge(?)买了房子。
        One thing 那 Newbury Park and Moorpark have in common is great micro climates. Gotta love it!
        狄更森(支持雷诺路(Reino Rd))上的一所房屋在拍卖会上卖得很高,MLS可能是更好的选择。两名竞标者情绪激动,涨跌互见。太疯狂了。一些白痴为修理工多付了2万美元。我和我丈夫在里面咯咯笑。
        Prices are just freakin insane still. I read 那 when the Texas (oil)housing bubble popped it 至 ok 15 years 至 reach the bottom. We’还没到那儿,恕我直言。工作是驱动因素。没有低利率的工作仍然不会给您带来任何收入。库存会发臭,但没有工作是震中的起源。秋天会告诉周围的一切。

    • 杰夫·贝克曼

      Thank you for pointing out a real, on the ground, picture of what was once a very high end market with less than 1% vacancy rate. 的2010 Census indicated 那 the owner occupied level was 85%. Now it is 50% less than two years later. And, 至 quote the Ca Yellow Pages: “西湖村以其富裕和僻静的性格而闻名,被认为是大洛杉矶地区最富有的社区之一。”

  • 我对西湖村(您所在的地区)进行了REDFIN搜索,结果发现整个区域内只有6栋房屋的价格低于50万美元。(所有房屋均高于45万美元)。所有这些都列为待售。价格比该地区2006年的最高水平下降了约20%。因此,可能还有进一步下跌的空间,但是该地区的租金是多少?我不会’还不放弃… I’如果租金平价接近现实,那么确保空地很快就会被投资者挖走并出租。

    也许一种解决方案是将废弃的财产赠予财务稳定的邻居。让他们维持和出租他们并分享利润。对于所有其他房屋都被废弃的荒芜社区来说,这将是一个有趣的解决方案。那些持续了这种萧条并支付抵押贷款的人,可以得到邻居废弃的礼物的回报。然后,他们可以筹集资金并修复物业维修..出售或出租该物业以牟利,并有动机做得好并以公平的价格出售,因为如果他们不这样做,财产价值将面临风险。’修复它。银行/政府向邻居赠送礼物的财产,他们将必须向其交税。但是他们会有动力迅速修复它,并通过租房者,新买家获利,或将自己的土地扩大为双重土地。

    Fair? not really. but it atleast will quickly bring back 至 life neighborhoods 那 need a facelift.

    • I’我对这些东西并不复杂(REDFIN),但我不知道’我们非常相信这些可搜索的数据库可以捕获所有数据或各种属性的基础状态。例如,我的隔壁邻居哈顿’截至去年11月,该公司已支付了一年半的抵押贷款。他告诉我同月房屋上发生了止赎拍卖,他没有’不知道他会待多久。他和他的家人还在那里。他们在几个周末前进行了一次车库拍卖,我们的另一个邻居问他们是否要搬家,他们说不。我的妻子已经看到人们在给房子拍照。邻居在房子里长大,拥有自由而清晰的房子,直到2007年生意放缓时才拿出股权。

      我的意思是此属性不’t在任何数据库中显示为待售。

      • 即时战略
        任何取消抵押品赎回权的网站都将向您显示该物业上的数据。它将显示止赎权,每日拍卖信息(以及推迟和取消的状态)。我们喜欢止赎雷达,但还有更多选择。如果您知道平方英尺,手数,bdrms,浴室,则可以在Zillow上查找没有其ID的止赎。

        我们正在批发和零售市场寻找房屋。

    • @乌托邦?:

      那’荒谬的是,我们如何将这个影子库存冲入市场,以便人们可以以合理的价格购买房屋呢?我们’re being effed by systematic manipulation and 那 empty house is only empty for 那 reason.

  • 在这样的不确定时期,明智的选择是下跌3.5%,并在需要时轻松走开。 1960年,美国是一个强大的国家,统治着整个世界,而20%的下跌是有道理的。在2012年’一整天的花花公子,冒很多钱就是不明智的。

    • Agreed 那 it may be wiser 至 put 3.5% down in uncertain economic times, if your out is 至 walk away should things go bad. Regardless of the feelings 至 ward walking away, this culture of low down payments in uncertain times is horrible policy. It keeps housing unaffordable and sets up the buyers for default. I think it’s far more common though 那 the average FHA buyer is using it 至 just barely get themselves into a home, rather than foregoing the 20% down because of future volatility.

      • 谁可以在SoCal中节省20%?每月有400至500美元的燃料通勤,孩子,高税收…there are some hundreds going into long term savings every month, but 那’s it.

        正在做“right” in the Midwest is easy. I can save up $25k in a few years, and have 那 20% down plus cushion in the bank. Not gonna happen in SoCal unless you are rich.

        我同意,“work harder”。但是,不是每个人都愿意,也不是每个人都不想放弃家庭。我不’我不相信成功应该受到惩罚,我爱有钱人,他们(通常)会赢得成功。但是我也坚定地认为每个人都应该有一个层次,而在SoCal中,较低的层次是San Bernardino。嗯…that’消除危险和贫民窟。而那些人不 ’t even WORK, I am puzzled as 至 how it holds up the level it does. So 那 leaves places like Fontana and Palmdale for the 9-5 crowd, plus sitting in traffic. Not cool.

        恕我直言,SoCal的市场估值不高,大多数博客对此表示赞同。我认为Northridge和Rancho Cucamonga应该以$ 250k最高,但他们没有’t。他们走得更高。幻想钱?大概。 Cerritos 50万美元并使用“good schools”为了证明这一点,请让我休息一下。我可以用一流的学校和正常的房屋价格来甩掉2个美国室内城市。人们不得不问这种幻觉是否会永远结束,如果幻觉会在何时结束?

      • I am currently saving up 20% with my wife. 的real problem is 那 easy 钱 has made 那 20% an almost unattainable amount in socal for many families. Without easy access 至 3.5% 钱, saving up 20% would be a lot more feasible for many families.

  • When I sold my condo here in central Massachusetts in 2010, I was stunned 那 the buyer was only putting 3.5% down. I think 那’要使购买者所欠的债务比房屋或公寓的价值还容易。

  • Mortgage financing from Banks has pretty much disappeared, so it understandable 那 the Fed has filled this void 至 keep the housing market from collapsing. What is not understandable is the contined low-down payment financing, back stopped by the Taxpayer. Has nothing been learned over the lasst 6 years?

  • 还有什么可以说的….?? 的interventions of central planning will ultimately cause more pain for an even more extended period of time. Value distortion in the markets is epidemic. Public spending is still way out of whack with revenue reality. 当CA的庞大公共部门最终被迫瘦时会发生什么?

    • 我们不再喝那些酒了

      “当CA的庞大公共部门最终被迫瘦时会发生什么?”

      I’可以肯定的是,在Dems推动下,CA永远不会发生这种情况…simply threaten “pink slips”对于老师和/或安全人员;当地新闻的主要故事将是妈妈和哭泣的孩子纠察学校,举着牌子“Please don’开除我的老师(皱眉)!” or “我爱消防员先生!”如果发生裁员,公众瘫痪,税收/费用提高或“magically”一笔不起眼的基金中有数百万人被发现,一旦尘埃落定,几乎没有裁员。 CA还载有退休金的退休政府雇员;有保证的政府支票到帐,支出继续增加,无论是繁荣还是萧条时期,都为经济注入了动力。许多人几十年前就买了房屋。生活便宜,天气好,他们’不去任何地方。

      • 参见Valejo。

      • 加入斯托克顿和圣贝纳迪诺。这个聚会刚刚开始。

      • 那些退休的人们将看到他们的退休金和医疗福利在未来5年的最高年限内减少。养老金泡沫即将来临。卡珀斯拥有来自卡利地方政府的大量市政债券,其中许多政府本身已经破产。您如何看待Calpers在ZIRP环境中的表现(更不用说所有养老金了)?目前已经资金不足,平均每年约有1%的回报,同时面临着市政持有的巨大损失。

        根本就没有’t enough 钱 至 meet all the obligations. 的collapse is 对 out there, in many more ways than one. Be prepared.

        即时战略

      • 伊恩·奥尔曼(Ian Ollmann)

        “I’可以肯定的是,在Dems推动下,CA永远不会发生这种情况…”

        不。无论谁来,它都会发生(如果会发生)。州和地方在财政上不是主权国家。像欧盟成员国一样,他们可以’t just print 钱. They have 至 live within their means ultimately. Even if the local powers 那 be lack the will, it is quite possible 那 bond vigilantes will force their hand. After all, nobody HAS 至 buy municipal bonds. If the 钱 isn’t there, it isn’t there.

  • 我在卡利出生并长大,现在居住在CO。’我怀着兴趣和好奇心注视着卡利市场(在南卡尔仍然有家人)。在丹佛地区,房屋市场正在反弹,库存低迷且价格攀升。我希望我知道这是否会持续下去,还是我们’会看到另一个更正。一世’我试图决定我是否应该现在出售并租用一段时间以了解情况。一世’我坐在5.5%的第一名和8%的第二名上,如果我现在这样做的话,可以付清所有钱,并带着少量零花钱走开。但是租金一直在攀升,尽管我可能可以得到现在以抵押方式支付的租金的类似地点。我爱我的房子,为自己的升级投入了大量的血液和汗水,’只是我希望它在一个不错的位置的方式,这将是可悲的放手。但是,伙计,如果我知道将来价格会下降,并且我可以以便宜的价格购买类似的东西,那将是理想的。决定,决定…..

    • 我注意到您说您既喜欢改装房屋的方式,也喜欢位置。卖掉你就赢了’找不回来。您以后购买的物品可能少也可能少,或具有相同的质量(在构造上,位置,布局等方面)。更糟糕的是,您将支付销售成本,寻找租金以及两次搬家的费用以及新的购买价格。在当今的市场中,您的贷款很高,但不是历史平均水平。这里 ’我将要探索的是:以较低的速率进行全反射。如果不可能的话,每月通过双本金偿还两笔贷款;如果不可能的话,在第二天支付两倍或更多的钱直到它’消失,如果在这种情况下的时间合适,则重新检查速率是否仍然较低。继续将本金增加一倍,直到您在自己喜欢的房屋中获得无抵押贷款为止。祝好运。

    • Take the advice from someone who has been through it. If you LOVE the location and LOVE the house, stay put. Of course, if you can get lower rates, take advantage of 那.

      It sounds like you have very little equity at the moment anyway. 的FED is going 至 make sure prices rise for the long haul, one way or another. And, even if the FED fails and prices do fall by 40 or 50%, you could always walk away, wait one year then buy 那 cheaper house.

      如果当前的美联储疯狂没有’t cure housing, the FED buying out 对 and then bulldozing them is not out of the question. Bulldozing a crazy notion for sure but suspension of mark 至 market and the purchase of 2 trillion in treasuries along with 3.5% 30 year rates were all crazy notions 5 years ago. What ever crazy idea you can think of 那 might cause housing prices 至 rise could come into play, the imagination of the FED is the limit.

      One last thing, if your house is in 那 area of 至 wn everyone wants 至 live, it simply will not go down unless interest rates were 至 rise significantly.

  • Bmcburny

    为什么使用左撇子一词?我们是美国人而不是共产主义者。你为什么写一个像治愈一切的短语…. athletes foot? C’星期一实际上,这是在侮辱人。我本人并不完全熟悉Glass Stegal,灌木丛中的房屋行为。我一直了解,这与银行储备和监督有关,以避免故意和愚蠢的资金和投资。听起来不错。如果您引用与Glass Stegal相关的事件,请定义5句柄,依此类推…您可能会说服别人,说服您。您的职位只有浑水。

    • 我用这个词“lefties”并参考了运动员’s foot because it has been my observation 那 people who blame the housing bubble on the repeal of Glass-Stegall are: 1) utterly ignorant of what Glass-Stegall actually did; and 2) politically left of center. Your own post confirmed both observations. What do you want me 至 do about 那? You guys read the Huffer Post by choice. I you choose 至 repeat the moronic things you find there and are not interested enough 至 investigate further, 我不’看不到我能做些什么。

      我认为,到目前为止,您和恩斯特·B(Ernst B.)在Google Glass-Stegall上进行了搜索,因此您现在基本上了解了所有内容。现在,告诉我为什么您认为废除Glass-Stegall会导致房地产泡沫。请注意,在撤销Glass-Stegall之前,抵押贷款发起人和投资银行已经出售了数千亿人民币的RMBS,承销标准的下降已经在进行之中,房利美和房地美已经开始非法买卖价值数十亿美元的人民币。次级抵押贷款进入证券化。那么,Glass-Stegall的废除与什么有什么关系呢?

      Lefties point 至 Glass-Stegall because otherwise they would have 至 acknowledge 那 Bush did nothing 至 cause (and, yes, 我同意,also nothing 至 prevent) the housing bubble. He made one feeble effort 至 rein in Fannie and Freddie but gave up when Barney Frank claimed Fannie and Freddie would never fail or need a bail-out.

      • 请不要将事实与人们混淆。您’会破坏我从阅读此博客并总是发现有人指责布什的乐趣(在这里插入问题)。

      • 好的,然后,我请您提供一些我不清楚的事情的信息,但是您的答复是抨击我,称我为左撇子(一个真正的不科学的非特定术语,历史上定义了法西斯主义者和共产主义者之间的区别),并声称我得到了我所有您声称来自《赫芬顿邮报》的信息不过是宣传而已(类似于虚假新闻五和林博,如果被证明是真实的,我会认为这是公平的)。我不知道为什么你不能伸出援手。您只是把我放在盒子里,避免了任何真正的交流和朝着有益的方向迈进。

        在撰写本文时,我有一个奇怪的想法。我想知道您对全球变暖有何看法。我之所以这样问,是因为我非常重视科学,并对基于科学得出结论的人们非常尊重。

      • 杰夫·贝克曼

        @bmcburney

        You throw the term ignorant around rather nonchalantly. From my observation, anyone, like yourself, 那 thinks there is a difference between Bush and Obama is not only ignorant but delusional. If you believe 那 the President of the United States, regardless of their party, makes the economic decisions in this world you are beyond help. Take a very wild guess of who does make those decisions.

  • 顺便说一句,卡利曼(Calman)希望今年秋天的冬天房屋价格下降,从而反弹并可能还会增加。它不会保持膨胀,也不会膨胀– 至 o little 就业 and 至 o many defaults in the pipeline. Keep 那 in mind as you work on your decision.

  • We 丢失 a bidding war on a short sale due 至 all this cheap 钱, and realturds talking young idiot buyers into paying “whatever it takes”。作为明智的前房主支付现金,我们每笔交易都遇到所有这些僵尸。我们不’想要贷款。感觉很泡沫,所以我们’重新等待秋天。我认为太阳再次使人头脑发亮。即使价格不’如果正确,即使库存紧张,季节性the也会结束。
    Flips seem 至 be the better deals 对 now.

  • 杰森(Jason E.)和疯子(Had as Heck)

    我不是来捍卫布什的。我基本上同意杰森’s comment 那 he did nothing 至 stop the housing disaster. Bush continued all the same Clinton policies which eventually caused the bubble and the disaster. Bush made one feeble effort 至 stop the disaster and gave up when Barney Frank pushed back. Given Democratic control of the House at the time, Bush probably could not have over-come Frank’的抵抗,但他应该更加努力。我同意。

    My reaction 至 Ernst B. was not offered in support of the W. Bush Administration policies, it was a response 至 the idiotic left-wing assertion 那 “de-regulation” caused the crisis. Anybody with even the slightest understanding of the W. Bush Administration knows 那 W. did not de-regulate anything meaningful (with the exception of Glass-Stegall) and what he did de-regulate did not have any effect, good or bad, on the financial crisis.

    是的,W.,Barney Frank和许多其他政治家对首付20%的评论是“barrier” 至 home-ownership and the American Dream were stupid, stupid, stupid. 的left likes 至 quote Bush’s moronic comments regarding these things but they always seem 至 forget 那 there own heros said exactly the same things.

    • bmcburney
      我阅读了您的解释和观点。感谢您发布。那么,另一德豪瓦功能不全年选举骗子主编了4年。两位候选人都有其管理人员,游说团体,而且都是,。我只想让一所房子在这个香蕉共和国的红色,白色和蓝色象征下变老。

    • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

      Sorry dude, but 100% financing did not occur on conventional 抵押贷款 until the Bush administration allowed the 抵押业 至 自我调节 itself in 2002.

      弄清事实。

      • 恩斯特·B。

        What are you talking about? What do you think Bush changed regarding regulation of the 抵押业? He did nothing, he changed nothing with respect 至 mortgage regulations. Bush’s regulation of the 抵押业 was identical 至 the Clinton Administration’s regulation of the 抵押业. You are just making stuff up.

  • 对于所有参与Ernst B.生成的子线程,请重新输入:Glass-Stegall,

    I am not defending W. Bush. W. Bush failed 至 prevent the bubble and it was his job, at the time, 至 do something. W. Bush kept in place all the Clinton-era policies 那 caused it until it was far 至 o late. But the Bush Administration made the ONLY effort (admittedly, only a lame, half-hearted effort) 至 which anybody made 至 stop or slow the train before the wreck. Can anybody name a single 自由派 politician, journalist or economist who attempted 至 do anything?

    • “Overdosed” –dot com上的纪录片(免费)在住房泡沫方面拥有悠久的历史。几个月前,我看着它踩了一下,实际上从中得到了一些东西。
      PBS FrontLine Show在线(免费)在金融危机方面有一些非常出色且平衡的纪录片。“The Warning”-对格林斯潘出生的布鲁克西(Brooksey Born)也被覆盖。那’只是许多非常非常好的纪录片之一。

      • 的“Overdose” documentary is spot on. This is what I have been trying 至 get across for the past few years and no one is listening. I think the fact 那 the real cause of this problem was monetary and fiscal policy, scares the average Joes out there because we are threatening 至 take away their free 钱. We have no more economic levers 至 rescue us from this calamity. I think it is really important 至 watch this documentary and understand the implications. I really hope I am wrong on this one…

        http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/overdose-next-financial-crisis/

    • 杰夫·贝克曼

      @

      努里尔·鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)和罗伯特·席勒(Robert Shiller)都在泡沫上打电话,没有人关注他们。我认为可以放心地给他们打电话“liberal” economist in the grand scheme of things. Again, this is not a 自由派/conservative WWF chain match. Why are you so dogmatic when the evidence is so clear 那 both sides are mere errand boys for the Big Boys?

      • I disagree with your assement 那 Roubini is a 自由派. Certainly, Roubini and Krugman give the impression 那 they hate each other and Roubini opposes stimulus spending and additional deficits. You may be 对 about Shiller being left of center, hard 至 tell.

        但是无论如何,我不’认为您可以辩称席勒’s “warning”(例如过去)的设计方式旨在改变政策和Roubini’s 警告 was so late in the process 那 it would have made no difference 至 the outcome even if universally believed and acted on. Shiller just said 那 home prices were going up faster than the long term trend and 那 prices generally return 至 the mean. Ok. Shiller was correct and his analysis solid but since he was looking only at prices and not at overall 债务/loan underwriting, it just didn’对情况没有任何影响。鲁比尼’警告更加完整,对总体情况的评估更加准确。如果您听他的话,您本可以赚一些做空银行股票的钱,但是我相信,在布什政府试图控制房利美和房地美之后,他对这种情况的最初评论就已经很久了。

  • u…先前的房地产繁荣,互联网泡沫和巨大的房地产繁荣都有一个共同点,那就是容易获得人为地廉价的钱。责备直指美联储’许多政府的货币政策。我认为对GSE感到困惑’,联邦住房管理局(FHA),放松管制等措施错过了近期泡沫的真正原因。使用利率作为杠杆而不是市场信号的概念会带来一些非常不幸的市场后果。短期利率操纵以促进经济活动最终成为长期政策。

  • 奥巴马港 ’t forced mark-to-market. 的Goldman Sachs Gang also got acquitted of any housing market 舞弊 charges last week.

    男人,如果他’s re-elected he’会继承一个helluva混乱-

  • Although the bubble is back 100% in sub 700K housing along the most temperate Zone of California, prices seem 至 be weaker than ever further out. 的eastern most areas of 92115, but still in San Diego proper, have the best prices I’我见过,即使在春天狂热之后。

    零利率获胜’可以使疲软的经济变得强大,但它肯定会扩大最佳地区和最差地区之间以及两者之间的价格差。有钱的人会为生活在更理想的地区支付更多的钱,而当您每月可以为相同的5K支付两倍的费用时,请当心!

    我想,如果我曾想过30%的低于4%的利率,在此之前我会想到的,但我从未想象过像这样的利率。

  • 伊恩·奥尔曼(Ian Ollmann)

    DHB:”FHA贷款从未打算成为整个住房市场的主要参与者。”

    所以?它的哪一部分没有’t scale?

    • 避风港’您看到FHA贷款的违约率上升而另一GSE时的损失却上升了’s are improving? It is obvious 那 they didn’不能充分评估风险,如联邦住房管理局抵押贷款保险的增加所证明。占市场的一小部分是一回事,而当它们是市场时,则完全是另一回事。我们在泡沫中看到了同样的事情,次贷和其他奇特的贷款产品成为市场,而不仅仅是整个市场的一小部分。他们不’t scale.

  • 伊恩·奥尔曼(Ian Ollmann)

    DHB:“这能持续多久?”

    It will last until banks decide 那 they can make 钱 servicing this market uninsured or providing inexpensive private insurance themselves. They probably will be more eager 至 do 那 when housing prices start 至 trend upward a little more convincingly than they are now.

    “如果FHA的担保贷款这么好,为什么您不看到华尔街的银行跳出来用自己的钱向美国公众提供3.5%的首付贷款呢?”

    的government is performing a 公共服务 here. Government probably benefits in the long run by a better tax base from a less ruined economy. 的FHA is currently functioning something like the insurer of last resort, and is doing a valuable job. 的program is designed 至 prevent a housing calamity like the 大萧条, wherein housing prices crash and it becomes very difficult 至 secure funding 至 buy a house, preventing the problem from fixing itself. Banks would also be in far worse shape, because they would have 至 bear the losses alone.

  • 林惊讶共和党想赢得这场选举…每个人都说我们将房价下跌50%,所以在大跌期间担任总统的人将连任第二届。如果共和党人聪明,他们会投票支持奥巴马…让经济崩溃就像它注定过,然后一个民主主义不会当选一代。

  • 的FHA is providing overly risk loans at the taxpayer expense, meanwhile keeping houses unaffordable for many borrowers. This isn’有价值的是,政府对资本的利用效率低下。经济适用房是这里的解决办法。

    私人保险已经可用。

    银行应承担泡沫期间的高风险贷款所造成的损失。

  • 杰夫·贝克曼

    @伊恩·奥尔曼

    “The government is performing a 公共服务 here.”

    不是政府的美联储没有执行“public service”。它正在拯救华尔街和大型银行。这种情况已经持续了五年,而美联储已承诺至少再延长两年。与储蓄相比,有更多的公众储蓄。零利率计划对他们做了什么?他们为什么要补贴七年或更长时间的不当投资?更多的债务并不能节省长期债务。确保银行存款达到100,000美元是一回事,但确保无破坏行为却又没有万亿兆头的道德风险是另一回事。您的对策肯定是,如果美联储不这样做,系统将崩溃。好吧,它无论如何都会崩溃,但情况要差得多。您必须为GS工作。

  • My 28 year old kid is looking 至 buy a house. He plans 至 use FHA financing. If he has problems getting the house he wants with 那, I offered 至 give him $20k for a larger down payment.

  • @杰夫·B。

    抱歉,但是在我看来,任何声称格拉斯-史帝高的补给导致房地产泡沫或金融危机的人都是愚昧无知的。如果有人通过分析将两者真正联系起来,我愿意证明自己是错误的,但至少以我的经验,这永远不会发生。取而代之的是,我发现人们声称废除格拉斯-斯蒂格尔是发生过的每件坏事的根源’甚至不知道格拉斯·斯蒂格尔是什么。同一个人还声称,布什做了一些使抵押贷款行业能够“self-regulate”这导致了一些非常糟糕的事情发生。然而不幸的是,这些人无法解释他们所指的是什么。你怎么称呼这种人?知情的?非妄想?

  • 这里有一些想法:

    1)在所有这一切接近零利率的情况下,HOA储备可以’t make any 钱 off interest and in my building, HOA has gone from 280/month in 2005 至 360/month (plus 120/month special assessment x 12 months) for 2012. 我不’t particularly like 那 trajectory.

    2)我是2005年买的(是的,是的,我知道,但是我没有’那时还没有高速互联网,就可以看到精神错乱的发生,我也没有看经济,我是从没有泡沫的东海岸搬来的,所以我只是以为洛杉矶的生活成本更高,等等。 ..)。无论如何,我以25.5万美元的价格买了本产品,目前欠15.5万美元,略高于我年薪的2倍(尽管我平均每周只工作2至3天,所以我可以在需要时获得额外的钱,只是全职工作,所以请不要同情(ha,ha!))。

    在正常情况下,255k加7年的通货膨胀率3%,得出的结果为313k。因此,即使他们可以将市场操纵到我的所在地回到原来的价格(他们可能可以’t because I’m在低端市场)我’d仍然在咬机会成本,让我不想出售。几年后,当我决定搬家时,即使我可以,这个地方也会变成出租房’实现每月正收入。那是部分弥补我损失的唯一方法。没有‘overwater’ selling here.

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