A mortuary of 7,000,000 止赎 and counting: Nation still faces 9.1 million properties that 是 seriously underwater.

如果在荒野中发生止赎,它会发出声音吗?似乎人们已经方便地忘记了自住房危机爆发以来,我们已经 见证了超过7,000,000个止赎. Do you think these people believe the Fed is almighty and can stop a speeding train or turn water into wine? Apparently some people forget that the Fed failed 至 prevent the tech bust or the housing bust in the first place. Now, the Fed is somehow the cult leader and the leader will not let housing values fall. The nation still has 9.1 million seriously underwater 首页owners on 至 p of the more than 7 million that have gone through foreclosure. It is abundantly clear that the mindless drivel of “buying is always a good decision” is just that. Investors 是 starting 至 pull 回到昂贵的状态,因为很难找到价值。我看到开放式房屋上的旅鼠,你可以看到他们嘴边的流口水,希望有一点点房地产。美联储不管好坏,都把我们变成了投机者。简单地将钱存入银行是一场失败的战斗,因为通货膨胀正在侵蚀您的购买力。但是工资没有跟上。您所拥有的是与投资者,外国资金和低库存的市场竞争的人们,他们试图猜测美联储的下一步行动。然而,科技泡沫破裂和房屋崩盘(请记住,这些事件仅发生于2000年)是美联储未能阻止的重大事件。

今天购买有意义吗?

The big question for 人y is whether buying 至 day makes sense. Hopefully the 7 million 止赎 within the last decade highlights that housing isn’t always a simple buying decision。自2009年以来,投资者一直是市场的主导者. Big 钱 is clearly pulling back from inflated markets like those in California. This trend is fairly new but even with this minor twist, inventory is picking up and sales 是 still very low.

It helps 至 understand that 人y 止赎 是 happening because people 是 spread thin. People 是 still maxed out. Unlike big banks with sophisticated deals and systems in place, most 屋holds 是 living paycheck 至 paycheck even those with higher incomes. First, take a look at some foreclosure history:

止赎完成

Print this chart out and just remember that housing is a big freaking purchase. Probably the biggest you will ever make. Just because someone is 屋 horny doesn’t mean they should act on it. What fascinates me is that late in 2012, most of those in the housing industry failed 至 see the big run-up in prices for 2013. Most were predicting 价格上涨2至5%。相反,我们看到了两位数的增长。 2013年底的预测对2014年非常乐观。

如果趋势是如此明显和明朗,为什么我们会看到房屋销售量低?

existing 首页 sales

Existing 首页 sales 是 down more than 35 percent from their peak reached in 2006. Our population is growing and prices 是 going up. Yet the push for higher prices has come from Wall Street, low rates, and normal buyers competing with the investor group. A big question that 人y 是 wondering is what will happen when big 钱 starts 至 flow out of real estate. We 是 starting 至 find out slowly. Rates 是 also likely 至 go up – so for those that believe the almighty Fed can do anything they should listen 至 their leader that is utterly telling the market rates will go in one direction.

我们不必猜测,最近的趋势使首次购房者变得更加艰难:

首次购房者

First-time 首页 buyers 是 a small portion of the market 至 day 因为投资者把他们赶出去。我们还有很多年轻人住在父母父母的地下室 花岗岩石棺.

仍在水下

尽管最近房价上涨,但我们仍然有910万严重在水下的房主。这告诉我们的是,许多人只是为了紧缩预算而将预算推到了财务极限。如果这确实是强劲的住房上升趋势,我们将看到房屋建筑商做他们所做的事情,建造房屋。我们还将看到现有房屋销售大打折扣。但是,我们有一个无数形式的会计恶作剧的强化系统。有些人试图把经济和金融说成是一门新科学。与地球上的牛顿物理学不同,美联储可以像自然界一样行事,可以在短时间内改变规则。当人们谈论“巢”时,人们就会情绪激动,我们大脑的爬虫类部分会变得一团糟–您只需要去一个开放式的屋子里,看看房子里的角质人们就将之扑灭。

We’ve been adding 人y more rental 屋holds over the last few years, just in line with the big investor buying (those 7 million 止赎 have 至 move somewhere but 止赎 是 also slowing down):

租金与家庭

此图说明的是,自上次危机以来,我们再也没有经历过持续失去房屋所有者家庭的持续时期。为什么?看看有700万个丧失抵押品赎回权的坟墓。美联储已将房地产市场变成一个投机工具,鉴于投资者购买量如此之大,因此应谨慎购买股票。这是关于感知风险的另一个关键点。您的人们远离股票(自2009年以来上涨了170%以上),却乐于将全部100,000美元或200,000美元的首付充入价格昂贵的物业中,而这部分物业仅受到投资者的欢迎而以两位数的价格上涨发热。但是他们觉得这更安全!加利福尼亚是7,000,000个止赎房屋中的很大一块。您的人们拥有可怜的401ks和退休基金,但他们的财富中有80%至90%被捆绑在一块房地产中。

7 million 止赎 and currently 9.1 million seriously underwater 首页 拥有ers. It should be apparent that when it comes 至 buying a 屋, you really need 至 run the numbers. Investors have and they 是 从某些市场撤军.

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106条回应 至 “A mortuary of 7,000,000 止赎 and counting: Nation still faces 9.1 million properties that 是 seriously underwater.”

  • 在2014年要艰苦奋斗的房屋!!

    • 多么令人振奋地去!

      • What, you accused me of having a crystal ball in the last thread. 但 one does not need a crystal ball 至 make rational, short-term predictions.

        As I predicted, I think 屋 prices will stabilize (maybe a bit up or down), and inventory remain low, for the remainder of the year.

        我也同意那些预料到通货膨胀会过高的人。一世’几个月来,一直在担心这些板上的通货膨胀。我只是不’t see how you can print all that 钱 and it not create hyper-inflation sooner or later. 我不’不在乎钱现在存放在哪里’最终将被释放,然后带来麻烦。

        我同意那些认为的人’s better 至 拥有 有形 资产 —房地产,汽车,食品,燃料—而不是绿色厕纸。

        当然,房地产有持有成本— 财产税es, insurance, utilities, etc. Nothing is 100% secure and risk-free. 但 有形 stuff beats fiat currency during hyper-inflation.

      • 汽车,食物,燃料怎么样“tangible 资产? Aren’他们只是消耗品吗?为什么甚至在房地产旁边提到他们。铝三刚用完就吐了吧?总是让我着迷的是汽车被列为“asset” in one’的净资产。他们总是,永远为零。好吧,也许不在古巴。

      • 溶胶– 我没有’不要询问您的预测,因为我不同意您的前提。当我读“I see”评论中的预测使我感到高兴,因为在这一点上预测未来是如此困难,几乎已成为不可能。到目前为止,我对每个预测都错了,因为我不了解所有活动部分。我只是希望我仍然相信水晶球的预测…

        迈克M– “tangible” 资产 has an accounting definition and cars, food, fuel, pencils, 至 ilet paper, 是 all 有形 资产. Intangible 资产 是 “assets’ that cannot be 至 uched or have not been put into service like internally developed software. I believe Goodwill, Trade Marks, Patents (not sure on this one), trade secrets 是 considered intangible and therefore 是 not depreciated. Intangible 资产 can be amortized. Land is the only 有形 资产 that I know of that is not depreciated but the building is depreciated. I believe if the land has mineral rights that 是 in the process of being mined then you will depreciate the land minerals. So I think you 是 confusing depreciating 资产 with 有形 资产. Two 至 tally different things…

      • 正确储存的食物和燃料可能会持续数年。他们保留了自己的价值,因为人们将永远需要它们。不像纸币。

      • 房东之子

        “Prices stabilizing” in one paragraph. “Hyper-Inflation”下一个?请。

        过度通货膨胀。更像是超默认值。

        银行寻求袋持有人。在这里签名。

      • “So I think you 是 confusing depreciating 资产 with 有形 资产. Two 至 tally different things…”

        不,我’我不困惑。我认为,大多数市民及其授权会计师将5万美元的汽车在车道上慢慢腐烂列为资产时感到困惑。教授,您可以随便争论语义学,但是,我知道’s a 傻瓜 game that does not end well. There’数以百万计的Boomers在进入最终游戏时立即发现了这一点。

      • “No, I’m not confused”..

        您可能不会感到困惑,但是您’重新被故意钝了。

        除非我们能弄清楚如何逆熵,否则您’没错,最终一切“goes 至 zero” However in common terms, anything you can sell for a chunk of change is considered an 资产, even a car or works of art.

      • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

        @房东的儿子,

        You 是 a little 至 o late 至 the hyperinflation ballgame. 首页 prices going up well in excess of incomes is hyperinflation. Medical care going up well in excess of incomes is hyperinflation. Higher education going up well in excess of incomes is hyperinflation.

        和 since housing costs and medicare care 是 the two biggest ticket items for 人y families, we 是 witnessing hyperinflation as we speak. It is not Wiemar or Zimbabwe hyperinflation but 通货膨胀 that is double the core 通货膨胀 rate can be considered hyperinflation.

      • “we 是 witnessing hyperinflation as we speak.”

        No, overpriced 首页s in California and expensive schooling is not a sign of hyperinflation, sir. A loaf of bread that costs twice as much as it did yesterday is. Please.

      • “不,我不感到困惑。”

        “Tangible 资产 是 those that have a physical substance, such as currencies, buildings, real estate, vehicles, inventories, equipment, and precious metals.”

        “Intangible 资产 lack of physical substance and usually 是 very hard 至 evaluate. They include patents, copyrights, franchises, goodwill, trademarks, trade names, etc. These 资产 是 (according 至 US GAAP) amortized 至 expense over 5 至 40 years with the exception of goodwill.“

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset

        您感到非常困惑,或者您选择使用错误的英语来使他人困惑。我给出的定义是英语的,如果我们不能就单词的含义达成共识,而您在逐步完善它们的过程中,则没有理由继续交流……

    • 2015吉姆…..2014是选举年!

    • http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Gabriel/1427-S-Charlotte-Ave-91776/home/7038425

      The selller of the 屋 is SUPER GREEDY! A 2 bedroom/1 bathroom 屋 asks for $600K. This is crazy. Please boycott him/her.

      • The seller can ask for $6 million not just 600,000. It is his 屋 and in a free market he is allowed 至 ask as much as he wants. You have only 2 choices: buy it or not buy it. If a buyer wants 至 buy it and they agree on a price, that is the market price.

      • 但, but, but … it’s on a “LARGE LOT”!

        不是“large lot”, but a “LARGE LOT”!

        甚至在CAPS中也是如此!

  • 美国’集体的注意力跨度等于a的注意力跨度。你呢’期望人们还记得2000年吗?整个系统取决于我们的短暂关注范围,以便开展业务。

  • 美联储是一个犯罪机构。耶伦喜欢房价上涨,因为她知道如果房价下跌,银行将倒闭,而且她也知道美联储在2009年如此欢乐而充满活力地购买的所有有毒债务将变得一文不值。
    如果全球经济正准备再次陷入衰退的深渊,那么在另一场衰退中,价格将如何上涨,工人将被解雇,工资紧缩,未来前景越来越渺茫。美国人需要更便宜的住房,而不是虚高的住房价格,这要归功于美联储摧毁美元的货币印制。抵押银行家协会购买申请没有显示美国住房正在发生任何复苏。
    美国 has quite a few bubbles that still need 至 burst: bonds; stocks, higher education costs; medical costs. Many students 是 borrowing 钱 至 go 至 school because there 是 no jobs. 但 there will not be jobs when they finish school either 大概 .

    We have 至 pop these bubbles. Yes, this will cause pain. It will also cause pain 至 our lending institutions, and the interest rates 是 going 至 go through the roof. 要是我们 would have begun raising rates in 2001, we would have avoided all these bubbles Greenspan/Bernanke have given us.
    我们看到美联储‘inflation 人ia’ and bond purchase program (QE) has propped up stocks first and now housing. 但 it is not propping up anything else. For people who don’t 拥有 stocks and real estate there has been no recovery, it’今天对他们来说实际上要糟得多。

    房屋恢复是一种幻想或海市rage楼。

    • 美联储将继续做有助于银行而不是人民的事情。这种泡沫几乎不可能破灭。与2006年的情况不同,今天的贷款是合格的,并且有大量现金购买者。可调整贷款只是它们的一小部分。不再需要将您的房屋用作个人ATM。情况有所不同,因为我们不完全了解美联储和银行故意将我们引诱而杀…都是为了他们的利润。救助是针对犯罪的银行。美联储与政客和银行同床。直到最后一毛钱都从他们的口袋里掏出来之前,大街上的救济都没有。

      他们现在正在玩的游戏是新游戏。他们采用了可悲的利率来确保您的资金安全在银行中的能力。他们把我们带入了住房和股票市场。他们想支持房价,当房屋开始低迷时,他们将推出新计划以保持购买意愿,他们丝毫不担心。当股市崩盘时,政府将再次在这里利用您的401k /退休帐户“safe”政府发行债券,一项强制性债券购买计划。如果银行倒闭,FDIC甚至没有足够的钱来退还储户。银行在衍生工具中具有很高的杠杆作用,因此一旦事情开始崩溃,它们都会崩溃。银行已经重写了货币市场账户的规则,他们可以合法地获取每一分钱,以备将来的银行假期/减薪之用。

      Remember they want us in real estate and the stock market. We 是 not the only ones with this crazy housing bubble. This is a global housing bubble and when this one pops it will be like nothing ever seen before. 我不’t see this ending well. There is absolutely no 安全 place 至 keep your 钱 so housing is not a bad bet. I think we have quite a few years till this bubble pops but nothing is predictable because of so 人y shady players.

      I would be interested in where other 投资人 是 concentrating their funds if not in real estate?

    • 应该让火在7月8日燃烧到地面,相反,您,我和其余99%的应纳税人群将把它带到太阳不发光的地方’保持1%的光泽’的现金流量保险。

      如果GS和其他IBank破产,我们将有一个底部和一个未来可以建立。以财富的名义发生了危害人民的罪行。亚历克斯·汉密尔顿会批准吗?

  • 美联储’s insanity plan —和全球计划— 至 reflate the economy cannot work for the simple reason that there is a season of Inflation and a season of Deflation and these two seasons 是 in opposition, like Spring and Autumn 是 in opposition.
    假装通缩没有 ’存在是精神错乱的一种情况。经济增长??年,然后休息??年份。休息周期与增长周期或通货膨胀周期一样重要。通货紧缩周期需要1)销毁债务; 2)使国家摆脱有利于富人和特殊利益的通货膨胀周期的投机狂潮; 3)缩小贫富差距,使国家避免内战; 4)提高利率来做所有这些事情,特别是销毁债务和奖励储蓄者。

    我希望您现在了解通货紧缩对我们今天有多么必要和重要。
    我们需要通货紧缩来完成其工作并拯救我们的国家。
    现在提高利率并启动默认机器!
    我们等待的时间越长,所有人的痛苦就越大。

    祝好运

    • I’d喜欢看到通缩。一世’m not in 债务. I’不用抵押,每月付清我的信用卡。通货紧缩将增加我的现金价值,并使住房更加可负担。

      但 I worry that hyper-inflation is more likely.

      • 高通货膨胀在世界上将如何发生?问你自己。高通胀将需要跟随工资。那不是’t and won’第三世界不会接走我们所有的工作。在宏观层面上,通货紧缩的可能性更大。想想日本。他们在我们其他人上都有很大的领先优势。

        我们不是魏玛或津巴布韦。世界是’t either. I would relax and prepare for 人y years of stable 至 lower prices for years 至 come. Hopefully, your California real estate follows. I’m happy 我不’不要住在那儿。我刚在康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德县一个非常高档的小镇上买了一套公寓,要价比2004年的要低30%。先生,这是通货紧缩。

      • Mike, just because wages 是n’t rising NOW doesn’t mean there won’t be hyper-inflation in the 不远的将来.

        当所有印钞都释放到经济中时,价格和工资都将上涨(我认为价格比工资高,但工资也高。)

      • 你没有债务。

        这听起来像是一个不期望过度通胀的人。

        Get as much as you can 现在。 While its cheap!

      • “Mike, just because wages 是n’t rising NOW doesn’t mean there won’t be hyper-inflation in the 不远的将来.

        当所有印钞都释放到经济中时,价格和工资都将上涨(我认为价格比工资高,但工资也高。)”

        所以,什么将会改变“near future”?在发达国家,唯一会提高工资的事情就是以某种方式关闭第三世界制造的商品和服务的进口。那’的保护主义,对不起,艾因’不会发生。目前,白宫正试图与远东国家达成一项贸易协定,这将使北美自由贸易协定看起来像是关税建设活动。甚至中国也担心它们会因为越南,孟加拉国以及非洲(甚至是非洲)的廉价劳动力而失去制造业。它’一场白热化的竞争,只要这些巨额利润继续滚滚而来,您在美国这里的政治人物和控制政策的精英们就可以在空中飞奔,这对无技能甚至是受过良好教育的工人将发生什么。外部贸易,您将永远不会看到过度通胀。地狱,通货膨胀几乎没有记录,除非你当然’重新尝试在加利福尼亚买房。你们要走了。我知道天气很好,山上很凉爽,海滩很漂亮,但是,老兄,一百五十美元买一块五十年代的垃圾吗? C’星期一生命太短暂了。

        而且,对于上帝’s sake, furcyingoutloud, once and for all, they ARE NOT PRINTING MONEY! 美联储 has lowered the borrowing costs 至 banks 至 zero, and 是 buying an enormous amount of 兆字节S, but, they ARE NOT PRINTING MONEY. Please. If I hear that one more time……
        无论如何,想想如果美联储在2008年之后的世界’•干预并试图扩大房地产市场。你以为’现在不好吗?哦,男孩。我们的经济,乃至世界 ’经济上,将是一团糟。我们’d被所有萧条之母所困,价格像石头一样下跌。嘿,我’d可以,其他人则可以用钱,但是,我们’很少见。其他人都在向他们大喊大叫,没有“tangible 资产”。我知道,我知道价格发现等等,但是,您最好连续排所有鸭子,然后再向世界展示。赢了’如果经过四十年的轻松赚钱,突然之间信贷头寸被关闭,这是很漂亮的。至少要确保您住在一个城镇,那里有一支薪水高的警察保护您。

      • 哦,还有一件事。您福克斯(Fox)看着金龟子也被欺骗并说谎。 800磅的大猩猩不是’t the Fed. It’中国。看中国。有人认为,仅仅一代人的毛派主义者就已经意识到了资本主义,但是,我对此表示高度怀疑。那’有些人认为已经发生了通货紧缩的地方,那里的通货紧缩将不再发生,因为他们再也无法通过火车从无处到无处连接到无处建造城市,并迫使任何人有钱购买空的公寓,因为别无他处他们投资。那’这就是为什么铜和各种商品的价值不断下降的原因,因为它们至少必须喘口气,等待空旷的城市里满是肮脏的农民,然后再着手进行大礼包。那里’世上没有其他人可以承担这个懈怠。那’是21世纪初信用周期巨大的终结。一阵子。

  • 和 the average 美国n is clueless.

    美国ns have fallen in love with real estate once again:
    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/04/18/real-estate-investment/
    从文章:
    According 至 a Gallup poll released Thursday, a plurality of 美国ns now think of real estate as the “best”长期投资,其次是黄金,股票和共同基金,储蓄账户/ CD和债券

  • 唐’t the years of losses of 首页 拥有er 屋holds partially mean rising pent-up 首页 拥有er demand? It certainly is supportive of rising rents, which supports the rent-parity equation.

    • 没有损失不表示已被压抑的需求。如果有被压抑的需求,那么销售就不会’t be tanking. Although 人y people may want a 屋 they can’不要把钱放在这个价格水平上,而对需求毫无贡献。被迫出租的人也没有’必然会抬高租金价格。租金比收入与住房的关系更大,而租金与收入的联系越多,您空置的风险就越大。人们可以用脚投票,而年轻的中产阶级将搬离加利福尼亚。

      • Yes, there is pent-up demand 至 buy a 屋.

        但 this is balanced by a fear of being burned again. Nobody wants 至 risk over-paying and being underwater. Buyers 是 a lot less trusting of 房地产经纪人, politicians, and the economy’比十年前的未来。

        Many 美国ns do have attention spans longer than a gnat.

      • 也许这没有增加任何讨论,但在我的轶事观察中“young middle class”搬到PA,IL,AZ和CO的朋友都对此bit之以鼻,错过了So Cal的生活。你不能复制这种生活方式,如果你不这样做’明白我的意思了,那你应该去天桥区。

      • 的确,您无法复制SoCal的生活方式:在汽车中坐了几个小时就不再遇到交通拥堵,烟雾,绕,不再为所有事物支付天文数字税,没有更多的债务和与之相关的所有压力,的确,您无法复制。我住在SoCal并在24年前搬出–我做过的最好的举动。您必须体验老鼠赛跑以外的生活,才能了解自己所缺少的东西。

        重复另一位博主所说的话:“你只有生命!!!!”

      • 我在宾夕法尼亚州长大,现在在索卡尔生活了15年,我没有办法’d go back. I’我很乐意花更多钱住在这里。为什么?因为Socal在各方面都更好。
        Also, am just closing on a 屋. Am I paying a lot? Yep. Do I expect it 至 go up? 我不’t know. Somewhat. 但 I plan 至 live in it for 人y years so that’我不在乎。我确实知道,即使它的价值下跌,它也会赢’减少我的数量’在过去15年中,我们在租金上花费了很多。

      • 安农, since you 是 匿名ymous, would you mind telling what what city or L.A. neighborhood you’re buying a 屋 in?

      • La Crescenta

      • Also from PA, also would not go back. California is not a comfortable for people who earn an average wage. All those bad things go away when you 是 a big earner. Flexible working hours, no 钱 issues. In that context California is a paradise.

        Otherwise, I agree, for 人y people it is hell. If you want the 美国n Dream you should really try 至 get your financial bearings straight elsewhere. This is not a place 至 get started, it will bleed you dry.

    • Supply and demand is not so simple. There is little demand for housing at the price points we 是 seeing in 人y 是as of SoCal–因此,Leaf Crusher识别出的销售量很少。

      • 恩斯特·布洛费尔德

        @GenXer, you 是 correct about the price points in SoCal. I make 6 figures and I cannot justify buying at the current price levels. For the cost of a down payment in SoCal, I can purchase for 100% cash outright a 屋 in the most of the rest of the U.S.

      • I also make six figures and bought a 1500sq ft place in an 是a with great schools in Orange county. It will be paid off in 4 years. Should I expect more for my 钱? 我不’t think I should.

  • For people with vested interest in 屋 appreciation the 首页owner versus renter plot is the scariest. The 首页owner decrease is national in scope and the figure is of the entire US. I would guess that a plot of only SoCal would be even more dramatic.

    住房需求增加将来自何处?

    1) Foreclosed peoples-Most of the foreclosure activity has hit in the last 6 years. The people that got hit buy this do not have large capital reserves. Some will try 至 jump in again, even if they 是 highly leveraged. Compared 至 2006 fewer of this cohort will be 拥有ing or seeking 至 拥有 a 屋 even as banks loosen lending standards.

    2)华尔街-大投资者可以’找不到交易。逐渐变细。

    3)年轻人-这个团体太难以偿还学生贷款等。他们可能想购买,但他们只是不愿意’t have the capital at these price levels. Many will continue 至 live at 首页, rent without savings, or leave the state. In any case they will be making a historically smaller impact.

    4)中国人-一些外国投资者喜欢房地产。中国’s big bubble is brewing. Any pop there will have effects here. Currently this is 大概 your 最好 set of 买家。 Are there enough 至 drive a large market? We will see how much inventory they can suck up this year.

    我认为这是一个巨大的需求问题。供应限制可以保持价格上涨,但行业可以’t make enough 钱 off the current volume. Mortgage originations 是 at all time lows partly because people 是n’t寻求反省,也因为销量不佳。

  • 首页 拥有ership in S. California is quickly becoming a luxury item only affordable 至 the wealthy. With median 首页 price of over 400k 首页 拥有ership is simply unaffordable 至 those not making at least six figures. I’由于经济承受能力的增强,我看到了南洛杉矶的竞争越来越激烈,而洛杉矶的可取部分则越来越少。

  • 今天购买是否有意义?

    今天有什么意义吗?

    只有在英格兰银行最近所说的话并在适当的背景下进行审查。

    英格兰银行在其历史性声明中所说的话以及应采用的适当背景,可以在标题链接的原始文件下方找到,该标题在标题下–

    ‘使用书面文书作为合同开展业务的顺序’

    资料来源:

    了解地点的业务
    http://thereisnodebt.wordpress.com/2014/04/05/the-business-of-knowing-your-place/

  • 因此,撇开所有咆哮,如果这里的人如此讨厌股市和房地产,就像傻瓜一样’游戏,你们都建议您用钱做什么?那堆埋在后院掩体中的黄金(或等额的现金存款)’也做得很好。

    Even given that markets 是 人ipulated, we have 至 acknowledge the realities of 通货膨胀 or watch it eat us alive. So what fraction of one’s 资产 should be in equities, R/E and cash? I personally think that something like 60/30/10 (or perhaps as cash heavy as 50/20/30 if one is ultraconservative and closer 至 retirement) 是 reasonable goals, but I’我对好奇心是什么?

    By way of confession, I made my 拥有 personal capitulation 至 real estate last week – but not the sort folks here usually talk about. After several years of increasing my cash position 至 prepare for either a 首页 purchase or an interest rate rise sufficient 至 increase my bond holdings I finally threw in the 至 wel and just paid off my mortgage instead.

    经过多年倡导持有抵押贷款并进行投资’而是多余的现金,我觉得自己是伪君子,但是我没有’几年来我们一直无法找到超过我的有效抵押贷款利率的债券收益率,而最终看到有效的现金负收益实在是太难了。当然,现在,我后悔没有简单地在2-3年前真正降息时还清这笔钱。

    • 非政治的

      I 拥有 a 至 urist rental in France and will invest in another in a market with steady 至 urism and collapsing prices. Tourism is a very 安全 bet i think. I also have a diversified stock portfolio. However I will be a renter in California until something cash flows here.

      • I think that investing in 至 urism is very high risk. It is heavily dependent on discretionary income. What we see in the developed economies is very fast rising prices for food, health, education and energy while the incomes 是 stagnant. 那 means you invest in an industry with a very fast diminishing discretionary income. What would that do 至 the profitability of your rental? Vacation budget is the first 至 be sacrificed when people have 至 heat the 首页 and buy food and pay for gas.

    • 33.3 / 33.3 / 33.3
      这是一个非常古老的模型,但我认为它今天适用于今天。

    • 把它和一粒盐一起吃。这将是日常需求项目中的通货膨胀,以及住房,商业可再生能源,股票市场,债券等较大项目中的通货紧缩。如今,黄金/白银必须成为任何投资组合的一部分,世界各地的政府都像疯了似的。但我可以保证的一件事是,未来美联储/州税将出现通货膨胀。当GOVT需要更多现金(FRN不是钱)时,它们将对所有物品加税,并尝试寻找新的税种。

    • I think this is a good move apolitical. Bonds 是 nowhere, 金 is for the anxious, stocks 是 for a portion of your cash and RE is what’s left. 首页 grown veggies 是 the 最好…

  • 博士说,“简单地将钱存入银行是一场失败的战斗,因为通货膨胀正在侵蚀您的购买力”。在这个星球上的55年间,随着时间的推移,一切都变得更加昂贵。也就是说,人们需要在如何分配资金方面有长远的眼光。

    In the long run, I feel prices will march higher and be much higher in 15 years than they 是 至 day for most everything except electronics. I encourage younger people 至 拥有 RE and 至 invest in the stock markets, as that is the only way 至 keep up with and hopefully exceed 通货膨胀.

    Could deflation happen and turn my beliefs on their head? Maybe, but the FED will throw everything they have at deflation 至 keep it from occurring. If the FED fails in that 人date, then all our lives will be really different anyways, so these conversations really will not matter.

    • 房价可以’t march higher if incomes 是 not there 至 support it and incomes 是n’t rising, they 是 going in reverse. People will have 至 seek out affordable places 至 live and go where the jobs 是 since we all can’不能互相送披萨。

      The average person investing in stocks will get crushed. The pros have 至 o much leverage, make trades much quicker and stocks 是 至 o volatile lately. Can’t股票的交易份额为零。

  • 嘿。爱这句话“house horny”.

    严重的是,很多人都将责任归咎于大型不良银行和汗流背的尖叫A型男性,这些男性经营着我们的房地产业,困扰着我们的金融业。但是,我总是指出,美国女性是主要原因,“house horniness”。我在适当的时候(2001年)离婚了,因为’t, I’我敢肯定,这位前任将使我背负沉重的住房债务,就像我在非洲南部论点的错误立场上把轮胎烧透了人们的脑袋一样。

    • 哇,单片“American Woman”是住房危机的罪魁祸首。怎样解决这种过分简化呢?

      • “哇,单身的“美国妇女”应归咎于住房危机。怎样解决这种过分简化呢?”

        阅读理解。我没有’不能说这是唯一原因。但我从未听说过它是有原因的。相信我,如果男人走他们的路,他们’d be living in little 人 caves with nice garages. 名称 me one male acquaintance of yours who really wanted that 5000 sq. ft monstrosity with the pool and all that damn landscaping.

      • 不,但是你说过“primary.”

      • 致迈克M

        如果男人走了,他们’d be living in nice 人-caves with 4 car garages with 4 cars costing about $65000 each, and a massive boat on a trailer out back…. and the 人 cave would be stuffed with an array of Big Boys’每个玩具售价数千美元。那里’d是福特F-150,高级奔驰或700系列Beamer,以及‘维特(Vette)或其他一些过度招募的警察,并且至少有一位50岁“classic”这辆车坐在街上,车上的积木向后倾斜,而那家伙为该东西掏出2万美元。

      • Whew! Wow Laura, you 是 going 至 get a large alimony payment 是n’t you?

    • 是的,很多女人看着“house” and call it their “home”。我妈妈就是那样,摧毁了我们的家庭,因为她需要一个巨大的“house”。我记得我去父亲那时候’离婚后让他告诉我的一间简陋的小公寓“他从未快乐过?”当我于2005年在市场高峰期出售并出租时,我的妻子骑着我兜售了多年的股票,终于到现在为止“we” sold in 2005….If your not “man”足以做出艰难的决定’结婚吧如果你“spouse”只是该死的固执,如果你不这样做,会让你的生活变得地狱’t buy a “house”然后拿出H。“Houses” 是 not 首页s……………..

  • 这是过去5年的相同信息。不幸的是,如果您不购买,则会错过一些很棒的交易。我知道我买了一束。现在的故事是为时已晚。所有房地产都是本地的,市场上仍然有交易。由于市场无法自给自足,本专栏中的建议是过去五年不要购买。在那个时间范围内已经赚了很多钱。就像最近五年对股票市场的参考一样,它不是可持续的,没有收益增长等,它已经上涨了170%。

    • 鲍比·鲍格莱斯(Bobby Bojangles)

      A lot of 钱 has been made? You mean a lot of 钱 has been STOLEN in the greatest transfer of wealth aka outright theft in recorded history. Stolen from the actual, 有形, real hard work blood sweat and tears of main street, the common 人, the taxpaying citizen as well as future generations of similar people. Now relegated 至 being 债务 and wage slaves 至 shit sippers such as yourself.

    • 看起来5年前的道琼斯工业平均指数是8000,现在’s为16000,所以高100%…您从哪里获得170%?

      • S代表更广泛的市场&P 500,在2009年初触底666,最近一次在1872年左右收盘–在5年内接近180%的增长。

  • 同意HB博士,“您确实需要计算这些数字。”对于我在SF湾区的家人来说,这是要在一条繁忙,陡峭的街道上搬出我们的家,以便我们可以在一个安静,平坦的街区养育我们的蹒跚学步的孙子,让他有一天可以安全地骑自行车。那是在2008年春季,当时它是一个很大的买家’市场。似乎是时候采取行动了。我们可能本应进行更多的谈判,但是纯粹基于我们的收入,可支配的首付款,并找到看上去(现在似乎仍然是)对我们家庭而言理想的住所,我们便大跌了。我们没有’那时我们知道,在不到一年的时间里,我们将损失10万美元的价值,但是基于我们扎实的购买理由,我们从不后悔自己的决定。进行交易时,我们知道我们很可能会在此房屋内退休,因此我们不认为这是一项投资,而是房屋。我们的孙子现在快八岁了,在我们附近有很多好朋友。从许多方面来看,尽管我们不知道房屋现在是否已恢复到其2008年的价值,但我们仍然赞赏我们六年前做出的决定,更不用说它是否增加了价值。

    Meanwhile, we kept the first 首页 and continue 出租 it 至 family. The new 首页 is no larger than the first, a modest 3 bedroom 1.5 bath 首页 that will be just the right size once the grandson has moved on.

    看过沃伦·巴菲特’的建议(释义),“当别人贪婪时要害怕,当别人害怕时要贪婪, ”我经常问自己,我们回到2008年的时候。我们害怕还是我们贪婪?我可以’t answer entirely in one way or the other, because we really did not consider our purchase of a 首页 至 be as much something we should do 至 make 钱 (as with an investment), as it was something we needed 至 do 至 make a better environment for our grandson.

    然后,我记得我们对即将进行的购买进行了讨论…That we were fearful of losing out 至 better offers on the one 首页, out of all the 首页s we looked at, that seemed “perfect”为我们;市场是“probably” at the 最好 it had been in a long time, that if it went lower it likely would not go very much lower, so going ahead with the purchase seemed like a sound decision. 和 now that 首页 values have increased from the 2009 lows, we feel more and more content with our decision 至 purchase.

    但是那是美国,然后是那。我不’认为任何人都宣布这是购买的好时机(或者说是出售的好时机)或不合适的时机是合理的。这完全取决于特定的家庭及其需求,以及他们此时进行购买的原因。如果一个家庭能够找到一所房子,可以根据需要终生使用,那么如果评估者一致,那么如果不多于一个或两个其他竞标者,那么可能值得尝试一下与要价,以及他们的贷方是否会提供固定利率抵押贷款。在那种情况下,在我看来,这是非常冒险的。

  • 说到在市场低迷中损失惨重的人,我认为将100,000美元投入房屋中是完全不同的事情:至少您有个晚上可以躺下的地方,即使您’已将您的大部分首付损失到了下跌的市场中。您可以 ’我说损失了10万美元的股票,这很快就发生了,我和一个濒死的配偶也一样。当然,我做了愚蠢,受惊的人的事情,把剩下的东西排除在市场之外。我确实放了一些钱,最近赚了很多钱。当然不是’我本来可以放回去的,但我’我不后悔我的收获’t *制造。租金变得令人发指,我看到越来越多的30岁左右的年轻人逐渐陷入洛杉矶的裁员之路。看着股市,他们正忙于互相促进时间’情绪低落的士气* n’t *在门口,所以您知道即将到来的恕我直言

    • I feel for you having a personal tragedy 至 deal with during the 崩溃. It seemed traumatic enough 至 me even without that. In my late 40s I had begun 至 diversify, but was still a solid 75% in equities in ’08当船尾撞到道具时– and like 人y here watched my net worth drop 30-40% over the course of 8 months.

      我没’出于家庭的需要,在经济危机期间必须撤出资金,但是即使如此,经济危机也使我非常害怕,在复苏期间,我可能比我本应采取的措施更加积极地重新平衡股票。当S开始&P恢复到1200左右,并在去年结束时达到1700,我逐步将资金撤出市场,直到我的股权下降到我的净资产的50%。而“prudent”与我相比,这种大量的谨慎(也许对崩溃的反应过度)使我付出了很大的改变’d have if I’d只是让它骑– but then I’现在快退休了,晚上睡觉也很重要。

      • 你做了正确的事情。

      • 我听见你不政治…感谢您对我帖子的理智回复。有时候疯子在这里变得有点浓密,但我仍然’m hoping “住房在2014年很难”发生在今年夏天我买之前!可能不是,但我’我仍然打算现在购买。如果我将部分或大部分的首付都输给了一个正在纠正的市场,只需耸耸肩膀继续前进。一世’我不愿意等待世界适应我的计划–即使那意味着比我小得多的地方’d现在喜欢,因为价格高。在这个世界上一定要保持敏捷和灵活,并数一数您的祝福。世界上很多地方都生活在肮脏的锡田里– USofA isn’t there yet…

      • I’d say that’保守(正确)的方法。如果你’d将您所有的钱都留在股票上,明天市场崩溃了,您会去哪里?

        I’m在频谱的另一端,不到我所拥有股票的10%。如今看来,市场风险太大。

  • DHB,
    我认为我们需要先回答两个关键问题…
    1.通货膨胀会持续多久?
    2. Not if but when the 必然 deflation will happen?
    布雷特,观察员,房东的儿子罗伯特,什么,Jt,Tj或有人启发我们

    • I’在过去的几年中,超级市场已经出现了通货膨胀。价格明显上涨。隐藏了一些价格上涨—例如,鲑鱼罐头的价格相同,但罐头的尺寸从6盎司减小到5盎司。一世’ve caught several products downsizing in like 人ner.

      我知道有人会说通货膨胀与物价上涨并不相同。我知道’s technically true — but 通货膨胀 often leads 至 price increases. For all this talk of wages remaining stagnant, or 钱 not being released into the economy, 我懂了 prices increasing. That’对我而言,实际上是通货膨胀,实际上不是技术上的话。

      和 I foresee more, and more rapid, price increases, thus hyper-inflation. 我不’不知道什么时候,但可能在未来几年的某个时候。甚至到2015年。我希望’确实如此,但是政府正在疯狂地借钱(我相信是在印钱)和支出。

      In another thread What asked me for my crystal ball. No crystal ball, just my analysis of what 我懂了 in real life, and read about here and elsewhere.

      • SOL,我认为您的分析是正确的,可以出口的所有商品的通货膨胀非常明显。最重要的是,即使不能出口,医疗费用和教育费用也会增加–最后两个与政治有关。即使工资停滞不前,价格也将上涨,并将继续上涨,因为价格并非仅由美国消费者决定。全球流动性水平上升。钱在哪里都无所谓,事实是,更多的美元正在追逐美国商品。

        “What?”我们目睹并且将继续目睹依赖债务的一切通缩是正确的–即房屋。显而易见的原因是:如果工资停滞不前,一切都涨价了,那就没钱可存了首付(总的来说,因为有例外)。但是,我不’我们相信,长期来看,我们将目睹通货紧缩,或者至少在有就业的大城市,通货紧缩将非常严重。原因是:所有材料的制造商都经历了在商店和加油站看到的相同的通货膨胀(请记住,材料也可以以低价出口,而所有进口材料的价格都会上涨)。因此,除非房价大幅上涨,至少与材料和劳动力的上涨保持同步,否则建筑商不会’建造。同样在非常拥挤的城市,土地价格也随之上涨。多年来,低建筑量最终导致住房短缺。即使需求停滞,价格也会因为供应减少而上涨。我们已经看到了–人们想要居住的地方没有太多的建筑,低销量和停滞不前或价格上涨。

        This is why I think that both you and 什么? 是 correct from you point of view.

    • As for deflation, 我不’t foresee any “inevitable” deflation in the 不远的将来. Maybe not for 人y years.

    • ZIRP结束时开始放气。也许早点。

  • 安娜·老鼠(Anna Mouse)

    This time the 崩溃 will be brutal –如果这样做在经济上可行,那么房地产投资者将不会三思而后行。

    Furthermore, 房地产投资者/holding companies watch each other and usually follow the same strategy. If one ditches a bunch of 首页s, the other may very well do the same.

    The US Government backing 人y of these loans will do nothing 至 stop the drop in real estate prices and the US taxpayer is going 至 get hosed – again!

  • 让 me explain 美国 as a capitalist nation. Most people don’没有足够的积蓄,大多数’t have health insurance, 人y 是 on the brink of poverty.

    Folks it has been that way since we got our Independence. The scare of real estate values and people purchasing more 屋 then they can afford has been around for ever.

    我爷爷’s 首页 in Chicago back 1950’住房不确定性也被称为种族主义,每个人都因为少数族裔的入侵而离开或被取消抵押品赎回权。

    在那些日子里,如果我们有互联网,人们会说同样的废话,’t trust real estate investment why buy a 首页 a minority is going 至 ruin your value.

    Today that 是a is luxury Hi Rises that sell from the 500’s?

    So 人y people 是 under water so what, 人y people file 破产 in 美国 this morning, GM should be put out of business for the deaths and cover up, it goes on and on, look out for yourself and if you come across a 屋 you can offer on or a neighborhood you like buy it!

    • Thank goodness that there 是 housing prophets such as yourself with a brave enough soul 至 spread the good word on these scary blogs and save the innocents from being tempted by Satan’s words of caution.

      • 安农… It is not about caution, that is when you 是 至 ld 至 proceed but be cautious, it doesn’这意味着转机,再也不会走这条路了。

        On this site people 是 professing 至 rent for the rest of their lives and that housing will never be a good investment again.

        I profess, 至 look at a 屋, check the zip code and be cautious but buy the darn property if you can do it.

        Most want my head , they call be a real estate agent and crooked car salesman, 我不’t read anything about being cautious and buy a 首页 on this site.

        他们可以做到的一切’t afford a 首页 so bash housing market, I’我只是为了让当地人诚实地对待我?

      • 要么你’不是很明亮还是你’re intentionally distorting the truth. Doc and the vast majority of the regular commenters here 是 not advocating a position of “forever” nor “never.” That’更是您的专长。

        Again, why 是 you proselytizing on here? Oh right, 至 keep ’诚实。是的,好朋友,无论您要告诉自己什么…

  • 只是不要’在海湾地区看不到这一点。或者,据我所知,止赎是由脚蹼,投资者,有钱的人买来的,因为他们没有烧钱/冒风险 ’t possible 至 inspect (except visually) a foreclosed property. These flippers can put 钱 into fixing up the foreclosed 首页s (bought at bargain basement prices) and then sell at current market rates.

    Case in point: 4/2.5 屋 bought in Oct. 2013 for about 500K. (I assume this was a foreclosure since I never saw it listed.) It’穿过街道时交通繁忙,实际上位于BART站的顶部。

    鳍状肢做得很好。一世’ve never seen a 屋 in such great move-in condition. inside and outside: no visible defects at all. 不是flaw in the paint work, closets, cabinets, nothing. A 屋 至 die for, excepting the location.

    It was put on the market in March for $700K. Sold yesterday for $1,050,000. If one assumes the flippers spent $100K, even $200K, fixing up the 屋, that’好六个月’ profit.

    另一所房子3/2“同一个家庭50年”另一个主要的交通通道,上周以95万美元的价格投放市场。我不’认为业主不愿意进行任何翻新/维修。我们应该说这是丑陋的内部(油漆选择,橱柜饰面,古老的浴室)。除非房主拥有第二抵押和第三抵押,否则他们会去看市场,并意识到这可以为在更便宜的地方提供良好的退休生活提供资金。一世’我们将观察$ 950K的价格是否是对市场承受能力的真实评估(而不是过去10个月诱​​饵和开关要价在$ 200K左右)。–$ 500K(低于销售价)。如果业主仍希望以高于要价$ 200-300K的价格出价。

    但是,到我的意思。上一次住房泡沫创造了新的“floor” for housing prices. The 止赎 have/are being sold 至 投资人 (as you point out) and these 投资人 can wait and sell at current market prices. Even people who 是 still underwater, as long as they can continue 至 pay their 抵押贷款 and 是 still living in their 首页s, have no impetus 至 sell until/unless market prices will allow them 至 see at a profit (a price greater than they paid for the 屋 at the 至 p of the last bubble).

    简而言之,最后一个泡沫设定了新的“floor” for housing prices, just as the current bubble is setting another new 地板. 和 that 地板 makes housing affordable only for the wealthy. Sure, there may be another housing 崩溃 but as long as 拥有ers can hold onto their property (and everybody needs some place 至 live), they can wait as 人y years as it takes for the market 至 recover. The result is that the inventory available for sale remains low – which contributes 至 high sale prices and a new 地板 for future housing prices.

    The Bay Area wealth effect extends beyond Silicon Valley and San Francisco. The rich can buy million-dollar 首页s, can afford 至 pay cash or carry an $800K mortgage. The non-wealthy have only two choices: 至 move from rental 至 rental in, 大概 , increasingly less desirable neighborhoods as rental prices and housing prices increase or leave the Bay Area and move inland (where housing prices remain affordable) or leave the state.

    During our entire life in the Bay Area, housing prices have always been beyond our reach, given that we did not want 至 lose our cash 安全ty net. Our income has never increased at the same rate as the cost of housing. The one time we could have afforded the 首页 we want, during the 崩溃, was another time when we didn’不想冒险储蓄(不想打赌在经济衰退期间我们不会失去工作)。回想起来,我们本该大跌眼镜。我们没有’t。我们仍然被困在租赁土地上,越来越担心业主出售时我们将被迫退出市场。

    Do we lust after a 屋? Yes. We want a place 至 live in for the rest of our lives, a place that isn’受制于房东的异想天开’不被驱逐,我们可以在力所能及的范围内进行修改。

    我们认为在湾区将不会发生这种情况。

    • 我不’认为以前的泡沫设置了“floor.”

      I think incomes set the 地板, while low interest rates, QE, financial instruments and the likes set new, ever higher ceilings.

      我在SF中给你们感觉。许多薪水直接与股票市场挂钩。

      e!

    • 是的,海湾有很多有钱人,但大多数是中产阶级。他们之所以采取这种方式,主要是因为军事,工会工作和小型企业。军队已经一去不复返了,工会工作消失了,小企业被高昂的商业成本吞噬了。您也有很多拥有物业的老年人。我不’除了在海湾地区拥有的非常特殊的案例以外,还有很多人不到40岁。在未来5到10年内,将有大量库存进入市场。记住,海湾地区是巨大的,从索诺玛一直到吉尔罗伊,一直到利文斯顿。这些地方之间的每个城市都能现实地永远高价吗?我了解SF和Palo Alto,但谁想在西奥克兰购买一百万美元的房屋?即使在纽约(疯狂房价之王),您也不会’看不到如此疯狂的属性。是否有700万富人取代所有这些现有居民?不。

      It’泡沫,当这种情况发生时,住房变得疯狂。楼主最后冒出了几个泡泡,所以现在他们’重新习惯了贪婪。每隔几年发生一次。

      • 我已经听到房屋拉拉队的回应。

        “这个地方不一样。”

        “每个人都想住在这里。”

        直到不是’t… and they don’t.

    • 我可以看到您在湾区遇到的问题。也许您做得很好,可以留在那儿;在这种情况下,您可能想在其他地方找到工作。重要的不仅是您赚多少,还可以用薪水购买什么。美元就像一个计量单位,本身并不是财富。

      我懂了 that you 是 risk adverse like most people on this blog. I am the same way. However, you can not eliminate risk in life. From the time you 是 born, 至 the time you die, you face risk. Everything in life is about 人aging risk –也就是说,您必须衡量每个结果的概率。话虽如此,我同意湾区以购买力低和房地产风险高而著称(如果您购买某些东西,您可能无法保留这些天文数字的付款,税金,保险和维护费用)。

  • 量化宽松深渊

    Interesting interactive graph from LA Times 至 day, showing how much 首页 prices have bounced back since the bottom of the 崩溃 a half decade ago. The part of this that is interesting is that the steepest price increases have not only been in places like Santa Monica, Bevery Hills but deep in SouthCentral LA (Willowbrook) also.

    这是图形的标题和图形本身的链接。

    The Southern California housing recovery has been robust in 2013, with heavy demand from 投资人 and families driving large price gains. Many ZIP codes that have seen the sharpest rebound were the ones hit hardest after the 崩溃. Investors — including Wall Street firms — have bought up perceived bargains in those neighborhoods 至 flip or rent out. Use this interactive map 至 look up the difference in your neighborhood between the bottom and the median sales price for previously 拥有ed 屋s in the third quarter of 2013.
    http://graphics.latimes.com/responsivemap-la-fi-median-home-prices/
    我认为,可以得出的结论是,有能力负担得起圣莫尼卡的超级富豪,比佛利山庄将在不加担心的情况下按需购买,而在WillowBrook地区,价格比圣莫尼卡暴跌,但随着价格上涨,更多的人选择‘own’ a 首页 in super low cost SouthCentral rather than continue 出租. Of course, I am not saying yuppies 是 moving 至 SouthCentral 至 be a 首页owner but perhaps the rentier class from places like Pico Union or other parts of SouthCentral would rather 拥有 in Willowbrook than continue 出租.
    (根据之前的《洛杉矶时报》文章,我们知道,洛杉矶的租金水平也在强劲上涨–没有迹象表明租金水平趋于平缓。

    • 我住所对面的租金比填满前的要价下降了600美元。

      The buildings 我懂了 going up have “pre-leasing”施工期间进行招牌,然后在竣工后租赁招牌。这些迹象中有许多似乎是永久性的。洛杉矶到处都有气球和租赁标志。

      自Garcetti上任以来,公寓的建造速度惊人。

      I’d love 至 be in the crane rental business right 现在。 Beyond that, not so much.

      在这个价格水平上,租赁市场将持续多久?

      Productive people 是 leaving.

      • 这是一个奇怪的现象–洛杉矶的库存大量增加,但价格较高,而UE仍然较高,工资却较低。有趣的是,看看是什么真正触发了洛杉矶房屋崩溃的发生。

  • 那我们’re in a ‘bubbly’时间是毫无疑问的。但是,我相信其中的区别之一是这不是‘sub-prime’ tinderbox that will inevitably explode. People buying 屋s now ain’t假人他们是有大量现金,信誉良好,可核实的收入和足够的首付款的人…换句话说,不是你的典型‘fools’。这些人基本上是负责任的。

    • 现金投资者do not make for a stable market. If/when there is a downturn, there will be a rush 至 the doors.

      • 现金投资者‘are’当然是一个奇怪的变量…但是我没有看到亏损,而是看到他们只是坐在那座物业上。亏损不是’直到您套现并产生租金,才可能击败股票,债券等(这也很可能会伤害您)

    • 这次不同了。不能’t come up with your 拥有 comment forum handle?

      • 我不’t know that there’s gonna be a ‘crash’, per se. A major taper, stagnation, 大概 . 但 a LOT of what happened in ’08-’首先是没有业务购买的人是12位,在18-24个月内违约。我认为当前的买家群体可能并且将会遇到颠簸— at least their credit-worthiness along with financial reserves would seem 至 indicate so. 我不’看到拥有780-800信用评分的人突然变得呆板。如今,承销商是相当顽固的。

      • 要是我们’不要忽视经济中更大的结构性问题,而只专注于抵押谁’在该分析中仍然是脱节的,因为它仅提及了“buyers.” It doesn’不能解决泡沫1.0更大的问题资产,这些资产仍在等待推算的一天,或者您认为这一切已经由会计头和美联储解决了’垃圾抵押的货币化?

        It’专注于一个输入很简单,但这并没有’绘制完整的图片。

        By the way, nice dodge on the comment handle question. Try getting your 拥有 instead of being lame and using someone else’s, 罗伯特.

  • 是的,止赎已经到了– as pointed out in news just a couple hours ago, but with increased pricing and low inventory, it seems that 人y people facing foreclosure could sell into the market rather than let the bank do it for them. Sure, there 是 still underwater 屋s, less so.
    嘿,我’m not Nostradamus, but I am buying a 屋 right now, 至 live in… and it’这是我没有做过的事情’04, because I felt the market was insane (though in hindsight, I 大概 should have bought then; I’d be ten years into the mortgage instead of the 270,000 dollars in rent that is 窗外.

    • “I am buying a 屋”

      解释很多。让我猜想,您最初来此博客时曾暗示市场有关的信息已关闭,但您’re so 屋 horny that you’告诉我们您想听到的所有信息,以证明有充分的理由。如果你’对购买的位置非常有信心,’在这里试图说服我们其他人(自己),红旗是白色的。认知失调和确认偏差会导致特别令人讨厌的宿醉倾向鸡尾酒。

      “something I did NOT do in ’04, because I felt the market was insane (though in hindsight, I 大概 should have bought then; I’d be ten years into the mortgage instead of the 270,000 dollars in rent that is 窗外.”

      让’s快速退回餐巾纸。

      ’04-’14:十年/ 27万美元租金=每月总租金2250美元

      $ 2,250每月P&我在购买商品(不考虑因素T就给您扔了骨头&本人或其他可能的支出,例如生活费,支出,维护,PMI等…),以30%的年利率@ 4%摊销(假设平均利率较高,’04,再向最近的3%进行再融资)=购买价格471,288美元,十年后,您将向银行支付170,011.48美元的利息(在窗口外),并支付了99,988.63美元的本金。上面的+/-几分可以忽略不计

      怎么办?您必须卖出更高的市场价格水平才能锁定利润。让’s assume in the 最好 case scenario that the 屋 you bought in ’04的价格更高’14. If so, then what? Are you going 至 buy another 首页 in the same market you just sold into? 那 mitigates any price level gain and presumably keeps your original $100K principal pay-down. We didn’甚至没有涉及销售成本或新贷款成本。

      在所有其他条件都相同的情况下,要想克服仅出租的领先优势,方法就是在最顶层出售’06为了锁定利润并保留本金支付(减去销售成本),请租用直至’09,然后再次购买。

      问题是–现在是时候再次出售吗?你没有’第一次没做对吧,Dag Nammit,你’下次再说一次,古丽!

      两个免责声明。这个练习没有’t give a shit about “intangibles”拥有或出租。我们’re strictly looking at the monetary since the original statement being challenged was all about the 钱. Also, one could very well borrow against assessed equity in the 首页 and arb the difference if that 钱 is used 至 invest in something with a higher rate of return. My bet is on most people moving before the opportunity of that ten years rolls around and they likely used any preserved principal pay-down 至 put into another 首页 purchase, thereby extending the original cycle.

      这不是’本来是作为人身攻击遇到的,但是当人们随便扔掉整个东西时“throwing 钱 窗外 by 出租”模因,它被暴露为它过于简单和懒惰的理由。

      没有免费乘车或午餐。您’我会以一种或另一种方式支付。

      • All good math. The variables though 是 —我本来会买的地方’04, can’t be 至 uched for the same price 现在。 It’s well over that price 现在。 (Silverlake) and who said I would move? I’d still be there.

        但…即使我是其中之一‘搬家7-10年的普通人’,即使我以购买时的价格出售了—甚至亏了一点,我’d仍然领先,因为我’ve在一个基本上没有租金的地方生活了十年(或至少远低于每月$ 2250.00的租金)。
        还是我错过了什么?

      • “It’s well over that price 现在。”

        强调“now.”这意味着现在出售将带来收益,谁知道未来会怎样。只有在您卖出的某个时候,我们才能确定收益或损失。如果您最初评论您确实购买过’04,本该投入$ 270K“out the window”如果您仍在租房,我的答复是让我们知道您售出后一切如何。

        例外情况是,将评估权益用于另一项投资,并计算出上述收益率差额。我之前忘记提及的另一种可能性是,如果您从出租房屋而不是出售房屋中获得了正现金流量,这是人们有时用来证明购买风险合理的另一种被低估的方案。整体“we’如果可以的话,就把它租出去’t sell” thing.

        “even if I were one of the ‘搬家7-10年的普通人’, if I sold, even at the same price I bought —甚至亏了一点,我’d仍然领先,因为我’ve lived in a place for ten years basically rent-free”

        我认为除非您不抵押,否则这里缺少一些东西。假设我们在租房和抵押时每月支出2250美元。在租赁方面 ’很简单,您花费了$ 270K {$ 2250 * 120个月},它构成了我们的比较基础。在抵押贷款方面,从您花了{$ 2250 * 120个月}的$ 270K(包括本金)中减去账面成本(即利息,税金,保险,维护等费用)后,最终的收益要比vs如果您出售以实现任何潜在收益,则租金将超过$ 270K。所以’s not $270K in rent “out the window”, it’除非您从在一个巨大的上升市场中卖出(在同一市场上购买替代品而获得收益)或通过利用股权获得实际回报或从出租该地获得净正现金流中获得收益,否则您的收益就不会比这少。“Out the window”也可以说是利息,税金,保险,维护,销售成本等…

        我没有’甚至无法触及潜在的税收影响,因为评估潜在方案所涉及的时间比我想花的时间还多。

  • 安·努布·头骨

    “anon”缺乏柄,白痴。

    • 不,这是缺乏处理能力。理解。

      “idiot”

      称呼 … 是 you an elementary school student or an adult?

      • 安·努布·头骨

        No…你必须输入整个单词“Anonymous” in —就像我输入aNON Numbskull一样。这使IT成为可能。
        ‘anon’是名称字段中的默认标签。因此,无论谁发表评论,’不必在其中实际输入名称。

        欢迎来到高中,Sparky。我的意思是“A”non. Now go do your 首页work.

  • Rates for a conventional 30-year fixed mortgage 是 averaging 4.48 percent, according 至 Bankrate. For “jumbo”抵押贷款(全国大部分地区的抵押贷款超过$ 417,000)平均为4.47%。

    Just read that banks 是 now lending lower interest rates on JUMBO loans than conventional… The logic makes sense. They feel the JUMBO loan 拥有ers 是 buying in better neighborhoods and 是 more affluent.. so they 是 more likely 至 withstand another housing pullback.

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