选件ARM Come Back into Center Stage: 350,000 Active 选件ARM with over 200,000 in California. 78 Percent of 选件ARM have yet 至 hit 重铸 Dates.

选件ARM are the gift that keeps on giving this holiday season.  As it turns out, these pesky 至 xic 抵押贷款 are still sitting waiting 至 hit recast periods.  Like a street vendor taco these things went down nicely and appeared cheap but came with a hefty aftermath.  的last 选件ARM 是在2007年制造的,但它们仍然在房地产市场上造成很大的痛苦。总检察长杰里·布朗有 从期权的前十大发行人处请求的数据 截止日期为11月23日的ARM。很高兴看到AG办公室发布了什么。但是,标准&穷人发表了关于 选件ARM 上周发现,这些贷款的许多问题仍然存在。

One of the stunning points found was that 93 percent of option ARM borrowers decided 至 go with the negative amortization option otherwise known as the “minimum payment” option.  This is something we have established from many fronts and data sets.  的bottom line is the vast majority went with negative amortization and this grew the actual balance owed.  Yet one of the new findings in the report was that 所有出色的选件ARM中有78%尚未达到重铸点。鉴于58% 选件ARM 在加利福尼亚,这是一个州破坏球:

期权臂未偿贷款

In 至 tal, some 350,000 选件ARM are still active nationwide.  Over 200,000 of these loans are here in California.  的most risky option as we have established with 选件ARM is the negative amortization payment:

期权臂付款选择

现在为什么这笔付款这么差呢?随着加州住房市场从高峰时期下跌了50%,许多国家的实际余额 选件ARM 在上升。因此,不仅房屋从一开始就在水下,而且房屋抵押贷款增加了90%以上。这就像负资产平方。这些贷款处于负资产领域如此之深,以至于 汉普 可以保存它们。哦,说到HAMP,事实证明这是一个巨大的失败:

“( 纽约时报 ) Capitol Hill aides in regular contact with senior Treasury officials say a consensus has emerged inside the department that the 程序 has proved inadequate, necessitating a new approach. But discussions have yet 至 reach the point of mapping out new options, the aides say.

一位参议院民主党助手说:“每天从事这项工作的人都已被赋予足够的权力,他们认为有必要进行路线调整,而不是重新考虑。”因害怕激怒政府而得名。 “但是在高层人士那里,人们正在考虑这一点并在思考'好上帝',因此我们需要考虑做更多的事情。”

我知道加利福尼亚的许多妄想者都在想,ARM方案的默默无闻一定与ARM的出色成功有关。 汉普 。当然,这些贷款从不符合HAMP的条件,但这是没有意义的。 汉普 失败的原因很简单。负资产。在加利福尼亚,这里有数百万水下。那些与 选件ARM 不仅在水下,而且在加州失业率达到有记录以来的最高水平的时候,他们的月付款将大量增加。问题是华尔街已经吸纳了所有纳税人的救助资金,原因是什么?为了保持裙带福利投资银行的滴答声?数以万计的美元外逃,实体经济仍然陷入困境。 汉普 天真的前提是,唯一的问题是高利率,而住房市场的问题是有毒抵押贷款。好吧,实际的问题是,成千上万的房屋仍按泡沫价格估值,而且十年来工资停滞不前,人们负担不起不负担大量债务的房屋。当您没有收入时,本金,接近本金和次贷的意义不大,这就是为什么甚至本金违约率都在飙升的原因。期权ARM对淘金热的加州家庭投机商如此有吸引力,因为它回避了一点点收入警告。在没有有效收入支持的情况下,它允许最大的杠杆作用。 80%的 选件ARM 申报收入。换句话说,人们made不休,就像说他们赚了200,000美元,当时他们筹集了75,000美元才有资格获得该600,000美元的房屋:

“( 有线电视新闻网 )还有许多寻求再融资的期权-ARM借款人将面临的一个小问题:“80%以上为陈述收入贷款,” said Westerback.

这些就是所谓的“liar loans”其中贷方没有核实借款人的收入与他们说的一样多。 贷款人可能无法修改抵押贷款,因为许多借款人’收入经不起审查。借款人可能也不想再次进行承销,因为他们可能会因其原始申请的故意错误而承担法律责任。

再加上这些条件,仍然脆弱的经济和高失业率,你就有灾难的根源。”

As people chime in about stabilization, California is still hovering near the bottom in terms of prices.  的only reason we have seen prices move slightly up is because the massive jump into foreclosed homes, the home buyer tax credit, Fed buying securities 至 lower mortgage rates, and all these phony moratoriums that we are now seeing are basically delaying reality for many.  Inventory is artificially low because of the 影子库存.

People ask for a solution.  Here it is:  We should have (and still should) break up the banks into pieces that are small enough 至 fail.  Bring back Glass-Steagall with some teeth.  Commercial and investment 银行业 should be put into silos that don’t even come close 至 one another.  Banks that need 至 fail should.  After all, the government now backs 90+ percent of all 抵押贷款 so why do we even need them?  A quick assessment should have been made from day one on housing.  Those that couldn’t afford their homes should have gotten assistance into rentals.  Here’s a thought.  Why didn’t we create a 程序 where those who had no way of paying on an overpriced home were given a tax break 至 rent a place in an empty commercial real estate development?  Right there you kill two birds with one stone.  Of course, those on Wall Street and those in our government are two sides of the same coin.  For the past three decades they have systematically neutered our government 至 the point of it being a bread and circus spectacle.

您认为加利福尼亚有200,000期权ARM借款人处于有利地位吗?让我们看一下一些大都市地区的负股本率,因为这是未来止赎的最大预测指标:

抵押和负资产

如果您看一看内陆帝国和凤凰城都会区,它们实际上相互映衬。实际上,这两个领域的负资产率均为所有抵押贷款持有人的54%。这难以置信。在这些大区域,一半的借款人都在水下。但是,看看加州最大的抵押贷款集中在洛杉矶长滩地区。 150万抵押贷款和40万以上的抵押贷款在水下。您认为这对房价来说是个好兆头,因为 选件ARM hit their recast dates in stride from 2010 至 2012?  I put in a more normal area of Dallas above and you can see what a normal market looks like.  Even there, you can see that 负资产 is still an issue.  But compare that 至 California and it is another story completely.  What does this mean?  的middle market is certainly going 至 take major hits once these loans hit their recast dates.  If they don’t qualify for 汉普 ,那又如何呢?小号&他们报告中的P提供了一个假设的$ 400,000抵押贷款的示例:

样本期权臂贷

的payment flat out doubles at the recast date.  Do you think people are going 至 be able 至 come up with an extra $1,200 per month with no problems?  You know what the typical mortgage payment for a home bought last month in California 至 taled?  $1,097.  That is the price of the hypothetical increase in the priciest state in the U.S.  So yes sales are happening but at a much lower end.  How is this going 至 help those in 负资产 on more expensive homes?  Take a look at the raw numbers for the state:

加州抵押

加州所有抵押贷款中有34%在水下。您可以放心,其中80%以上 选件ARM 在水下。如上所述,这些抵押仍在这里,而且仍然有毒。

选件ARM属于 Alt-A贷款 .  California has over 700,000 active Alt-A贷款 .  的bulk of the 200,000+ California 选件ARM 属于此类别。但是,这些贷款的大部分也是有毒的抵押浪费。这些也会消失。这些实际上是 影子库存 包括那些只停止付款但银行坐下来不做任何事情的人。那真的是解决方案吗?看一看Alt-A贷款在加利福尼亚州的位置:

替代抵押加州

洛杉矶和奥兰治县数量最多 Alt-A和选项ARM贷款.  Do you really think this is a bottom?  It might be for a home in the Inland Empire selling for $100,000 or $150,000 depending on local area dynamics.  But many cities in Los Angeles and Orange County are vastly overpriced.  的above dynamics look similar 至 how subprime was building up in 2006 and 2007 before the market imploded.  Yet somehow things are now different.

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26个回复 至 “Option ARMs Come Back into Center Stage: 350,000 Active 选件ARM with over 200,000 in California. 78 Percent of 选件ARM have yet 至 hit 重铸 Dates.”

  • 我用这笔贷款转移了许多房屋,因为它使我无需文件即可获得款项,而且还可以很低的付款额。非常适合我需要的工作。但是我记得,它们以原始贷款额的125%或10年重铸。由于利率非常低,可能需要一段时间才能达到125%。因此,这些贷款中的大多数都可能需要一段时间才能重铸。因为大多数是从2004年到2007年取出的。’我猜想大多数应该在两年后重铸,也许是2014年或2015年?

  • 的thing i see is that the LA/OC bubble popping will roll down values
    在内陆帝国。

    如果OC的价格下降,人们为什么要住在圣贝纳迪诺?

  • 苏兹·奥曼(Suze Orman)将拥有一头母牛,拥有所有负资产!看到她讲话很有趣。

  • @CAE:
    是的,我认识的每个人都是2004年购买的其中一项贷款。’我很确定他们会在2014年改版。我’我已经读到,丧失抵押品赎回权的第一原因是失业。第二是由于医疗费用而破产。

  • 走开:为什么更多的人应该放弃自己的房屋
    研究发现房主即使在没有赎回权的情况下也能抗衡’t Make Sense
    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/shame-cost-homeowners-big/story?id=9120264

  • I want 至 hear your thoughts on all the people who were able 至 pass on the potato bag while it was hot. 的people who sold their homes before the market crash and are sitting on cash. I believe it is these people who are waiting on the sidelines and keeping the market afloat. I personally know several families who has sold their homes in the peak of 2006-07 and are 出租 while waiting 至 get back in.

    How long will it last? 我不’t know.

  • 同样的问题在这里..会持续多久。一世’我准备买。不是因为我认为’绝对是最好的时机,但是因为我想离开房地产市场并继续自己的生活。一世’我准备进入自己的地方。对于房价,我不会’如果此时橙县的房价上涨或下跌,您会感到惊讶。似乎将会继续存在一些政府支持或一些外部因素 ’尚未有人想到这会阻止价格完全触底。这个博客是世界一流的– thx Doc.

  • 我是看到市场崩盘并在高峰期卖出的人之一。我什么时候回来?如果购买同一套房屋的租金要比租用房屋的租金低’说5年。我认为在屠杀继续进行的过程中,这还需要2年的时间。

  • 我在十二月售出了我的佛罗里达海滨公寓’06.发了财!把钱投入建造办公楼。哦,好吧,有时候是您的错误,有些时候是您的挡风玻璃。

  • CAE ,

    您确定这是原始贷款金额的125%吗?我认为这是125%的贷款对价值的比率。可能因贷款而异,但是125%的LTV会导致这些重置早于10年。

  • 拍,

    的prices in the IE compared 至 OC have always been proportional and I believe you are spot on when you say the prices in the IE will continue 至 fall as the LA/OC bubble keeps deflating. I think the appeal of living in the IE is that it is possible for a single working parent 至 buy out there allowing one parent 至 stay at home with the kids. I work in OC but commute from Murrieta because I like having my wife home with the kids and the school in our area are very good. It’尽管可能不像OC那样时髦和时髦,但它还是一个不错的郊区来养家。

  • 您所说的只是罐子被踢倒了。

    现在这些选件ARMS都在水下。怎么了
    解决这个问题?

    的debtholders don’不想在房地产投资时
    水下。维护被推迟。

    您要说的是,当取消抵押时,物业会变得更糟。

    这些债务持有人的唯一希望是高通胀。

  • 哈里

    好一点,我就是其中之一。现在跳起来很诱人,实际上阻止我的唯一原因是库存不足。我拒绝为需要200K工作的房屋支付600K!我会先以房客身份去世。

    我认为其中很大一部分“cash buyers”您会听说有一些人卖了一段时间,最终这些东西将耗尽。

  • 嗨,Doc,

    I enjoy your posts enormously. What I would love 至 see you write on would be what are the different scenarios 至 how this can play out. I think all of us who read your Blog can agree we are in a mess. We also know that government intervention and some fancy media spinning is temporarily keeping things afloat. My question is what if anything can they do 至 固定 this. Turning all options 至 30 year 固定ed? Lowering the value of the homes? Forgiving outstanding payments? What does that mean for all the people in over valued homes that are still paying on time? It is hard for me 至 wrap my head around these concepts and would love 至 know what you think.

  • 凯尔马格

    他们无能为力“fix” this. No 固定 exists. Banks have limited legal ability 至 modify loan under the rules of the pools of loans. 的government can try 至 come up with all of the 汉普 s they want. Banks will not follow through, as we’现在重新看到。用于再融资的新资金必须来自证券化。房利美&房地美不会制定允许对没有工作的人提供200%贷款对价值贷款的承销规则&糟糕的信用。通过人们的头脑得到它。那里’s not going 至 be a “program”可以解决某人’s being 170% financed. If your legs get cut off you can move on with your life or hope for miraculous regrowth. Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi and Chriss Dodd and Johnny Isakson can dream up all of the 程序s they want. It will have no effect in the long run. No effect. Virtually all of these underwater homes will be foreclosed and eventually re-sold. 家 buyer tax credits, subsidized interest rates, government-funded down payment assistance 程序s are all designed 至 keep buyers from getting the deal the really deserve on these properties. 的last of these loans will not have gone through the foreclosure/resale process until 2019. That’的2007年老式Wachovia Option ARM,现在由Wells提供服务(重铸期为10年)+ 10年+ 2年切割。但是,大多数人将在更早的时间内完成止赎过程。 Nader说的很对:当拥有的成本比租金的成本便宜时,可能是时候考虑再次购买了。应该是5年以上。在此之前的任何回升都是假货。

  • 我在2005年获得了5/1臂。它在2010年2月重置,但是由于自由度太低,我的速度现在会比以前更低。我的评分从4.75降至3.375。我想并不是所有的重置都不好。我应该添加我的贷款不只是利息或无文档贷款。

  • I’米与奥拉夫。我的意思是’mon, 凯尔马格 …we’我在这里放松一下’有点像加利福尼亚’水或人类的挥霍 ’忽略水文热力学。数十年来,由某种事物组成的强大的大型复杂引擎一直在运行,这与格林斯潘耸耸肩在过去的十年中一直困扰着。现在’像达达主义的自我毁灭机器一样破灭。
    ~
    DHB’的作用是布置’s happening, stripping bare the housing hype. Not 至 come up with 固定es. All he’我们要做的是使理性的,有责任心的人不要陷入房屋设计的第二十或三十层。炒作机器人知道这一点’作为庞氏骗局,任何有理智的人都能看到这一点,但不幸的是,住房是一件令人深深感动的事情,尤其是在事情经常在各个方面都令人感到恐惧的时代。我在这附近’我看到这样的炒作。“不确定时期的家庭安全。”附加到新的ARM型骗局上,该骗局旨在使人们负担他们显然负担不起的债务。
    ~
    虽然我同意Doc’我们的观察表明,必须重建和支撑银行业与投资业之间的隔离墙。但是那赢了’t 固定 anything that has already unravelled, it’我只会阻止这种特殊情况的更多恶果的发生。
    ~
    的question I have is: I understand all the pontificating about 出租 being the way 至 go. I rented till my mid-40s, and it was fine. I bought mainly because it was cheaper 至 buy than rent, given my household’的财务和就业情况。这也使我有可能以家庭为基础的生产力和收入’t have as a renter.
    ~
    但是所有这些租金都依赖房东,即业主。还有什么’当他们的债务房屋开始倒塌时,房东会发生什么?那’s what I’d希望在以后的专栏中听到Doc考虑。
    ~
    玫瑰

  • “就像摊贩炸玉米饼一样,这些东西很好地掉下来了,看上去很便宜,但后果却很惨重。”

    干得好博士,把它说成我们所有人都可以谈及的术语。

  • “Greenspan Shrugged.”
    完善。

  • 五年后,很多World Savings / Wachovia选项的ARM进行了重塑,而不是十年。由于其中大多数是在06/07制作的,因此重新发布日期即将到来。

  • 马丁·阿姆斯特朗(Martin Armstrong)建议2033年为最低点“relief rally”从2012年开始。祝您狩猎愉快!

  • Lots of these had a reset of 110% so they are already resetting, many that I have seen had Interest only seconds behind them 至 95 or 100% LTV from the original appraised value. So many of these people owe double what their homes are worth now its crazy. 的good news is that buyers should have plenty of inventory 至 chose from coming up.

  • 我不’认为他们对HAMP的LTV比率为125%的要求非常严格。我的第一笔贷款余额约为30万(第二笔为85万),其中有一所房子的价值为15万,他们为我提供了HAMP mod。当然,HAMP不’解决负资产或我的第二个问题,所以我’我可能不会接受。

  • 小子查理曼大帝

    @贾格
    的‘Reset’ is not the problem. 的‘Recast’是。许多人借贷时都带有负面的无抵押性,这意味着房屋净值越来越负。它们可以在时间轴上重播,也可以由诸如债转股之类的事件触发。 (在工程学中,您不能除以零,但在伏都教银行中,您可以‘math’). 的recast recalculates the entire loan and you have 至 pay principle and interest going forward, plus anything else in the contract, because if you got one of these, you damn sure were 至 o stupid 至 read the contract and have no idea what you signed.
    使世界从深渊中撤出的并不是救助,而是将会计规则从按市计价,改回了按市价计价的方式。现在,尽管我们都知道银行实际上已经破产,但从技术上讲,它们不再具有资不抵债的能力。如果住房真正被标记为不受扭曲的市场,那么一切都会崩溃。
    衍生品现在已经超过了四千万,或者是这个星球的十倍以上’国内生产总值(是一个伪造的数字)。老实说,当这些公式达到终点时,您是否相信美联储会反击四方。还记得代数和抛物线吗?他们看起来很棒,直到他们不这样做’t. Whatever you’我听说过,衍生产品不是 ‘derived’从某事。它是一个演算公式:Dx / Dt,或数量x相对于时间的变化。它们发挥的是变化率,而不是随着时间的推移累积价值的积分。最终游戏是一种回溯,就像将它们带到那里一样猛烈。 x接近无穷大时,公式开始失效。 Maddock批准了无限。无处可去…

  • 您可以获得大量信息,尤其是图表。自2004年以来,我一直负责收集数据或创建图表,以显示加利福尼亚州各县的ARM起源。您能否将我定向到可以获取此信息的地方?要么…更好的是,您有可以转发的图表吗?
    非常感谢,
    雪莉

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