租或买难题–在帕萨迪纳租房与购买房地产–加利福尼亚房地产泡沫城市的市场分析。以$ 640,000的价格购买房屋或以$ 2,100的价格租用类似房屋。

加州房地产 has taken a beating since the peak in 2007.  首页 prices statewide are down by 40 percent but many markets in 降低 priced areas have taken bigger hits like the 内陆帝国。甚至优质的A级A区也看到了价格调整的合理份额。还有更多的产品正在储备中。下一轮降价正在发生 中间层位置。这些城市包括 卡尔弗城 and Pasadena which we have covered extensively over the years.  Today we are going 至 look carefully at a few city blocks in Pasadena and pull up rentals versus recent home purchases 至 show why the bubble is still in full bloom in these areas.  Examples like this show us 那 加州房地产 在许多城市中,要维持当前的2011年估值将面临挑战。让我们看一下帕萨迪纳邮政编码为91104的租金和最近的购买情况。

Before we examine the map, it is important 至 note 那 buying a home will carry a premium.  Yet how much should this premium be?  那 is the question and usually the benefits of owning a home include 减税s and assumed appreciation.  This is why a home is bought from an economic perspective.  The emotional part of excellent schools and having a place 至 establish roots is important only if incomes are there 至 back up the purchase and not some 脆弱的馅饼在天空抵押。在这里,您会挠头,看到公寓前面有80,000美元的租赁汽车,而在人们家门口的欧洲汽车则为他们的合并家庭赚了100,000美元。在烟雾和镜子的世界里,所有的都是债务或借来的时间。首先让我们检查一下我们的出租物业:


This is a 不错 rental in a good Pasadena area.  This isn’t 纽波特海岸 but some readers were saying 那 it was near impossible 至 find a decent rental in these mid-tier markets.  It 至ok me all but 2 minutes 至 find this place.  Let us look at the sales history here:

售出:2000年7月26日,$ 270,000

So whoever owns this place with the current mortgage feels 那 $2,100 is sufficient 至 cover all the maintenance, principal, interest, and taxes on the place.  Keep in mind 那 these people are 出租 out the home which puts them in the investor category.  您 will have vacancies and repairs but this is part of the business of being a landlord.  So as it stands, the price 至 rent ratio works out 至:

$ 270,000 / $ 2,100 = 128

The current home price is the equivalent of 128 months of rent.  For this, the 降低 the number the better.  For example, if the place was 出租 for $3,000 the ratio would be 90.  Let us look at a recent home sale in the area 那 is very similar:


该房屋于2010年9月1日以640,500美元的价格售出。正如我们之前记录的那样,南加州最近所有房屋购买中的36%以上是通过 FHA保险贷款 because of low down payments.  Let us just hypothetically say 那 this purchaser put down 10 percent which is more than many current buyers are putting down:

首付款:$ 64,500

2010年税收:每年$ 4,428

本金和利息:每月$ 3,183

PITI总数:                            $ 3,702(包括保险)

The 至tal monthly net payment is $3,702.  Now think of this in relation 至 the other home 那 is on the market for rent at $2,100.  This home doesn’t even come close 至 being a good investment deal.  In fact, the current ratio on this place is up 至 305!  Let us plot these homes out on a map:


您 can visually see how disconnected market fundamentals have become.  Not only 那, you can see 那 a foreclosure a few homes down is on the market.  The home was purchased for $ 749,000 in 2006 and who knows what it would fetch in 至day’s market.  The foreclosure is only 2 bedrooms versus the 3 bedrooms for the recent sale and the rental.  So if we use the recent sale as a comp, we are looking at a low $600,000 sale here.  But even 那 is overpriced.

这是有趣的动态。租金是在泡沫破灭前或泡沫破灭前以270,000美元的价格购买的。租赁市场是了解某人实际上可以用其净收入支付而无需付出任何代价的一种极好的方法 政府或华尔街头贷款。出租的好处是住在上述房屋中并享受该地区的便利设施。您不必冲销拥有房屋的各种税收减免,但也不必支付维护,保险和年度税(考虑到大量 国家预算赤字).  您 also don’t carry the risk of being underwater which is now a new variable given 那 1 out of 3 California mortgage holders are swimming underwater on their mortgage.

In 2005 and 2006 I ran similar numbers for some of the 降低 income areas 那 had 天才的真正家园 以天文价格出售。在一个幸运的月里能卖到1000美元的地区,售价为500,000美元的房屋非常普遍。这里的数字保持不变,因此,因为这些是理想的邻域,但从基本面来看,显然将进行修正。这个地方的主人很高兴以每月2100美元的价格将其出租。它可能在这里变成获利或收支平衡。同样,这是市场将采取的唯一价格,否则所有者将要求更高的价格。有了租金,您就没有任何人为的刺激措施或政府的to俩来支撑价格。这就是一个希望在此地区生活而无需购买的人愿意并且有能力支付的东西。

As a rule of thumb, a great value is a home 那 can pull 1 percent or more of its purchase price per month.  So 那 recent $640,500 would be a great deal if it were 至 rent at $6,450 per month.  Obviously 那 isn’t the case.


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62个回复 至 “租或买难题–在帕萨迪纳租房与购买房地产–加利福尼亚房地产泡沫城市的市场分析。以$ 640,000的价格购买房屋或以$ 2,100的价格租用类似房屋。”

  • 您的博客的长期读者。在NorCal(东湾)出租房子,价格为$ 2,700。市场上一个非常相似的房屋售价为70万美元。

  • 我计算了一些数字,但是使用综合抵押贷款计算器对我来说看起来像这样…

    57万贷款… 5.25% FHA thing…每年税收8k美元… 34% tax rate…
    采购…每年总付款46764 $
    从贷款余额中减去权益…. 8000$
    从所得税中扣除利息和财产税…. 13206$
    调整后的付款价格…. 25558$

    因此,这与租金相当。通常,您不愿意租房’t have all the owning drawbacks. Neglecting time value of 钱 or other calculations. Assuming flat values for a long time. Need 150K of income for 那 kind of house and 那 is well above the median level for 那 area.

    Note here 那 Pasadena is a 不错 area but still really over priced. I’m guessing the math works out for some people 至 be willing 至 pay 那 price. 我不’t know how sustainable incomes are in SoCal and 那 is the 通货膨胀 deflation wildcard 那 can really cause things 至 break open.

    There are some 不错 spots over by the Rose bowl though.




    • I’我对这句话很好奇:


      Are you saying 那 the east coast is just 不错r in general? Or simply 那 you get more for your 钱 there?

      I’尽管我去过,但从未住过东方。这真的比帕萨迪纳(我在这里住过的地方)更好的地方吗?’t lived either)?

      • One text described Los Angeles as the most envisioned city but the least planned. So, you get some effects from 那.


        There is a lot of crime related 至 black and Mexican population 那 spills over 至 other areas (sorry but gang related problems are high amoung them). 您 get a lot of homeless. Lots and lots of them. Smog.



        @恩佐…支撑价格…热空气,影子库存,FHA贷款,边缘居民,prop13(巨大),不良的道路系统和密度过高的房屋。意味着210几乎总是处于备份状态,110是灾难,134是停车场。不确定上下班路程,但往返市区的车程可能超过50分钟。再次使帕萨迪纳远离市区… unless you have 那 至lerance for 2 hr commutes.

      • 所以,我想我’我说这不够安全,不够家庭友善或物有所值。

        在大多数地方,如果您要通勤一个小时,例如在纽约市以外甚至在纽约市,您的物有所值。 Heck NY和NJ的铁路系统更好,您可以在不到45分钟的时间内到达橘子市。


      • Safety is hardly a concern if you reside in the 不错r areas in Pasadena. I lived their for a couple years off Orange Grove, down the street from the Tournament of Roses office. There are still apartments there 那 do not have gates out front, and lots of people walk around 至 jog around and exercise. I’d喜欢在该地区拥有住房。它’不幸的是房屋太贵了。与郊区的东海岸房屋相比,’re looking at maybe 2~5x the amount for a pasadena home for a similar home out in the east coast. But on the bright side, you get 至 live in LA, enjoy the weather and live in an equally beautiful neighborhood with tree lined streets and 不错 scenery. (not many parks though…所以我承认哈哈)

      • 住在洛杉矶太贵了。为了避免糟糕的公立和特许学校系统,不得不将您的孩子送到私立学校是一个大问题,并且会产生额外的费用。

        However, there are many great homes with large lots in many parts of Los Angeles. The crowding you speak of is mostly related 至 the white ghettos 那 have sprung up in places like 卡尔弗城 and West Los Angeles. White people like yourself are so scared of people of color 那 they cram themselves into 900 foot bungalows and and swear they have made it just because they have surrounded themselves with other white folks.

        那 said, I have noticed 那 some of the smarter and more affulent white people have started 至 speckle some of our upscale African American neighborhoods. This blog however is mostly full of the 西边 white folk types.

        Sad 那 such an intelligent blog is infiltrated by such narrow minded bigot readers.

      • I lived in Pasadena area for 21 years. Safety is a REAL issue. I loved my home, but had 至 get out 至 protect my family and get into a better school system. I lived in a great part of Altadena (just north of Pasadena) and the crime is awful. No one talks about it. And the commute 至 LA is only 20 minutes or so. 那’这就是为什么它如此昂贵。

      • J,我不会’t live north of the 210 either unless it was further up north in the 不错r parts of altadena. The place 至 live in Pasadena is South Pasadena and the southern areas 那 border San Marino.

    • 我不’认为您应该从贷款余额中减去权益,这是一项成本,因此您会从口袋中掏钱。另外,您的利息扣除将随着时间的推移而减少。

      我知道’s not the mortgage rate, but I try 至 use closer 至 8% when I do these analysis, which is closer 至 the historical 30-year fix Feddie Mac rate. But who know when we actually hit 8% again? My point is 那 there is a lot down size for purchasing a house 那 will probably have a lot of maintenance. However, I did like your analysis.

      I moved from Pasadena when I got married, since I wanted 至 live in a neighborhood with better schools. 那’与家人一起在帕萨迪纳(Pasadena)生活的另一笔费用。

      • 你好,油罐,

        It was not a really indepth analysis but a quick ballpark figure 那 is similar 至 the amount of analysis people are putting into this. Huge potential for price swings based on demographic changes, social preferences, social and political upheaval, monetary policy changes exc.

        … for 70K down on a 57万贷款 @5.25%…
        如果您忽略减税政策,而我建议这是个好主意,那么’完全不同的故事。基本上“tax break”是你从未见过的东西。您会花钱休息一下,而这笔钱只会流入银行。一世’我猜想好医生可能会同意这一点,尤其是在价值环境不断下降的情况下。在这种情况下,接下来的几十年您每月要吃1800美元。如果将1800 $放入401K,则将其与您的情况进行比较。十年后,您已节省了165,000美元,再加上按3.5%计算的270,000美元之类的收益。将其与大约10万股本进行比较,更不用说对初始首付金额的任何要求。您也拥有巨大的下行风险。您在强制销售中亏损,必须支付佣金,信用风险,降低的机会税。


        我也相信很多租金都是通过I / O贷款购买的,您可以计算出这些租金,然后看到这些租金。这些物业将在很长一段时间内进入和退出市场。似乎有两个失落的十年在书中。

        Please note aware of WAG on incomes and prices being flat for a while. Assume 那 even with significant 通货膨胀, housing will be flat due 至 over supply and demographics.

      • 对于平均抵押贷款利率,请查看1800至1960年的抵押贷款利率。

      • 油罐,我认为校长不应该’进行租金与购买分析时,不要将其包括在每月的螺母中。当然,您每个月都必须提出它,但是它’实际上正在做某事。这无非是强迫储蓄。

        在大多数情况下,维护成本被低估了。我拥有几所房屋,它们全都是钱坑。屋顶更换,水暖,电气,平板泄漏,漏水的淋浴间,根深蒂固的下水道管线,淹没房屋的热水器等。’除非您计划每个周末去租房并自己割草,否则不要忘记雇用园丁…that’s another $100 per month out of your pocket. And collecting rent is income which is taxable. In cases where you get a bad tenant 那 squats for a few months and causes damage, 那 might eat up a good year’的租金收入。不用了,谢谢。

    • 克里斯·奥诺

      减去权益?!不’t 那 presume the value of the property is stable or increasing? If so, 那 is a highly suspect assumption… values are dropping. Even the OC Register (which is among the worst R.E. Cheerleaders) concedes 那 statewide the values of houses are declining.

      • 这篇文章的重点是,这是许多投资者(有些人具有长期前景)如何计算这些事情的方式。




        如果您使用略微下降的趋势,例如每年1%的值,十年内下降10%,那么它’s worse. Also I’m假设相关人员正在计划推迟维护,以赶上下一个繁荣时期。



        长期我’d also note plenty of cases in places like NJ where you see many decaying mansions in places like East Orange or West Trenton. Beautiful homes 那 you have a hard time imagining turing into a slum. People would point out riots and racial demographics but we have plenty of unrest from Mexicans and demographic shift there.

        并不是完全不想在这里讨厌,而是在目前,我们正在将资源倾泻到内陆城市,并安抚墨西哥人和那里的孩子。最终,我们会厌倦种族主义(从“minorities”),用西班牙语发布内容和腐败行为。因此,预计这些区域和邻近区域将下降。坚定地相信太空A和太空B人理论(有关该主题,请参见Adam Corola)。一旦撤消支持,事情就会迅速下坡。

    • Just a suggestion: Add the annual 10% 那 homeowners should budget for maintenance and repairs. The cost of owning includes replacing appliances; along with repairing leaky roofs, windows, foundations, etc. Also, owning your home guarantees you’支付所有水电费,垃圾清除费和下水道费用;同样,租金可能包括所有这些费用。我只支付电费,而房主支付的HOA中包含热水。我仍然可以’还没有回到拥有的位置。

    • The problem with your calculation is 那 it takes all of the 13206 and 减去s it from your income. 您 forgot about your standard deduction with makes the house not a break even but 12000 more a year 至 own. Would you pay an extra 1000 a mounth for this place. I think not.

    • 詹姆士 says he 减去s 13208 财产税 and interest from his income tax.

  • 恩佐·米莫(Enzo MiMo)

    我身处另一个无法假装的RHoG /泡泡区(Miami-FtLaud-WPalmBch),’m wondering if the good Doctor could dig up the details (financing format, buyer demographic) on this slice of Pasadena 那 sold for $437/sq. ft.! (1900 Galbreth Rd.)

    当然可以’可爱又经典“Mission”风格的简易别墅,根据HGTV的趋势有些低落,但是我的意思是真的,没有带遮盖的停车场和一个带3个BR的整体浴室吗?这是美联储/军事/ JPL / SPAWARS以外的所有工作吗?世卫组织正在支撑一切?即买方是两个高级RNurses / ARNP吗?三个养老院LPN?终身南加州大学教授?

    我毫不怀疑这是THEE迷人的居住地…在黄金时代(1925-1955)。 ;’)

  • A really odd dynamic is going on in my neighborhood. I rent in a 不错, old neighborhood in the north bay. It’s centrally located, virtually without crime, and the schools are good. Having lived in the area my entire life, 我可以 say with confidence 那 while it’它不是葡萄酒之乡最理想的居住地之一,’是我城市中最好的之一。


    Rent in the area is universally cheap, regardless of the quality of the house, while the cost 至 buy is universally expensive. 您 can rent a 3 house with a 600k asking price for $1250/month. A very 不错, perfectly maintained 6 bedroom down the road rents for $2,800- I’d不愿看到他们’d ask for 那.

    I’d喜欢在这里买一个地方,如果我’m reading this right, the disparity is a sign 那 my area is still inflated 至 all hell. Buying now is a bad idea, but perhaps there’隧道尽头的一盏灯。我对吗?还是我最好完全放弃邻居?

  • 在我坐着的地方,帕萨迪纳看起来像个杂物包。

    我在那儿搜索东西只是为了看看异国情调的房地产,并获得与芝加哥相比的价格。 457 South Marengo的一间非常漂亮的公寓房,给我留下了深刻的印象,那栋公寓非常可爱。这是一个1600平方英尺的3床2.5浴室,标价$ 630K,在我看来,它并不过分高估,但我真的不知道。所以我’m asking you all:


    什么 would this unit rent for?

    • 帕萨迪南人

      唐’t know, but 那’不是最好的社区。它’和布莱尔高中在同一条街上…我的口味太吵了。

    • 大概3000左右?这里’630K住宅(位于加利福尼亚的另一边)一个街区之外,是一个可比的单位:
      那 one rents for 2500.

    • 帕萨迪纳·戴夫(Pasadena Dave)

      嗨,劳拉,我住在Marengo,在标价630K的地方以北大约一个街区。 Marengo Ave.是一个杂货店,位于已经有20多年历史的旧式公寓/联排别墅旁边,还有价格高昂的设施齐全的新型公寓。租金价格也存在巨大差异。说…1200SF $ 1300 / mo‘older’较新的1200SF 2 Br / 2Ba售价2200-2400美元。都在同一条街上。我没有’t looked much into 3Br places, but my guess would be 那 this place would rent for about $3000 IMO.

      在帕萨迪纳(Pasadena)各个较好的地方,这种动力是相同的。它可以用合理的价格成为一个很好的租房市场,但是有大量的新建筑(特别是2、3Br公寓)正在出售和出租。这是一个难点。22.除非这些建筑物被占用75%或根据合同,否则大多数银行不会提供贷款。建筑商将不接受房客‘lower’单位的假定属性值。他们中的许多人空缺(熟悉该地区的任何人都可以证明这一点…考虑一下Lake / Corson,Arroyo / Cordova上的综合体)

      作为帕萨迪纳市的6年居民和目前居民,地狱是,该城市的价格过高。多亏了Housing Bubble博士让这一问题变得更加清晰。

      • 当他们撕下Arroyo Pkwy的Salt Shaker并贴上公寓时,我非常生气…which I’m sure are just sitting there empty. So. Pas. is full of empty 公寓, 至o, one complex 那 I know of is bankrupt and just sitting there chained up.

    • 劳拉– I would not want 至 be the owner. 什么 about HOA fees? Back in the late 1990s, I studied a 至wn house on Longboat Key FL, considering 出租 it out and living there when it is vacant. It was a 钱 pit at around $ 150 k at the time. ** An aquaintant just bought a 至p floor condo for 1.3 m which she would have trouble 出租 out for 8 k, Thai baht 那 is. Often, it’的疯狂。即使有人支付了4,000美元的租金,这种高端公寓也将是一个亏损者,这太高了。 LL支付了HOA费用后,每年的损失将是5位数!

      • WTF?

        您’re comparing a 至wnhouse in Florida for 150k 至 a Top Floop Condo in Thailand for 1.3M Thai Baht 那 rents for 8K THB.



      • Oh…130万泰铢为43,000美元。


  • 我喜欢这个游戏。让’可以在湾区的超级傻子学区尝试一下。我在加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺(Cupertino)找到了3卧/ 2浴,要价为$ 2000 /月。截至2010年12月22日,位于Redfin的库比蒂诺(Cupertino)的绝对便宜的3床/ 2浴房绝对价格为619,900美元。我认为租金不能’要比城市最便宜的房子还差。我买还是租?

    • 出租。我看到整个南部海湾(圣何塞,柳柳格伦,坎贝尔,洛斯加托斯,阿尔马登)的租金/购买价格数字大致相同。

  • 帕萨迪南人


    • 我是本地人’米与你!我于2008年搬走并于2010年搬回。那么,如果我付的房租费用与我在佛罗里达州租房的费用几乎相同,该怎么办? Californy是您想要的地方!所有小子’ aside, I wouldn’除了加利福尼亚以外,没有其他人居住。我喜欢天气,人民,娱乐机会 …在这里爱它!但是我会买房子吗?直到它使*财务*感觉!阅读此博客的桅杆头并思考一下:当您忘记泡沫并学会爱上南加州时,幸福就会发生。哦,顺便说一句,不要在出租comparo上开玩笑…。我以每月$ 800的价格在佛罗里达州布雷登顿的郊区买了房。没有国家所得税和电力也很便宜!但是你知道吗?我想念加利福尼亚!

  • Both examples appear 至 be somewhat overpriced although the home 那 sold is 不错r (IMO) than the one for rent. I wouldn’不能使用MLS租金清单作为补偿,因为(r)讲师很容易在天空中以某个馅饼的价格列出租金以说出“看看有什么好买的!!!” I’d be willing 至 bet 那 you could negotiate the rental price down quite a bit.

    Pasadena is 不错 but the air quality there is pretty bad.

  • 您 can buy 公寓 in Phoenix area for $40,000-50,000 那 rent for $800-900 per month, a ratio of 50!!!

    • 唐’别忘了增加300的HOA,200的物业税(国家不’t care what you paid for it) and remember 那 you’迟早会有巨大的特别评估。


  • 加利福尼亚的大局是价格下降。我们’在全州处于不稳定的状态,负债累累,资产减少。如果突然发生戏剧性的逆转,它不会’t appear property will be appreciating anytime soon. Why would you take on so much downside risk unless you are just emotionally attached 至 an area? (Big mistake right now IMHO). Everyone now, seems 至 be-e revaluating their lifestyle, now 那 our economy is in question. FAct is e are in deflationary mode, now, which effects the rest of the world, which effects us back again. Why not rent a 不错 place year 至 year, with less worry and out of pocket expense. With a solid income, you are holding 所有卡.

    正如HB博士之前提到的那样,patrick.net是评估购置与租用中大多数变量的强大工具。我已经为Westside Starter的房屋设置了它,这确实令人大开眼界。一个甚至必须考虑立即购买房屋的人都必须看到的东西。



  • 这始终是您每月租金为房屋价值的保守1%的标准公式。这可能会因地点而异,但公式是投资者用来确定价值的方式。那丢在泡沫里了。传统投资者投资现金流和升值是一种奖励。单纯的住宅投资者以升值为目标,以盈亏平衡或负现金流量进行投资。
    I have always felt 那 this market would stabiize when rents brought a return on investment. Great 文章, you always bring us 至 reality after coming out of a fantasy market

  • 所有这些都在奥兰治县拉古纳·尼格尔(Laguna Niguel)处于同一发展中。唯一的区别是升级,池和视图。哦,还有错觉的买卖双方。



    出售– 12/2010
    $ 755,000

    出售– 3/2010
    $ 750,000

    已售出– 4/2010
    $ 725,000

    $ 949,000



    出售– 8/2010
    $ 697,500

    出售– 4/2010
    $ 815,000
    $ 749,000

    $ 665,00

    • 小心冒险猜测适当的价格应该是多少?降到1999年的价格是否现实?

      根据我的计算使用 http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php the premium, not including buy/sell costs and using $3400 rent, is less than $5K year difference. 那 seems a reasonable premium 至 me 至 be the proud owner of a very 不错 home in a fantastic neighborhood. To pay no premium pricing would need 至 drop 至 1999 prices. Could 那 happen?

  • I’我不确定我是否了解比较理想社区房屋租金的相关性。首先,理想的位置是稳定的;他们是人们想要前进的地方。第二,从第一开始,这类地区的租金并不多。

    In the example used above for the Woodlyn home bought in 2000, even $270K is a tad high using the 1% 至 purchase price ROT. Assuming the 齐洛 comp is in the ballpark, the house is now worth $540K. The sale of the house around the corner for $630K confirms the neighborhood continues 至 be desirable and 那 people are willing 至 pay a premium 至 live there. And what is 那 premium? Not much actually: around $500/mo.; or $32K/year 至 own vs. $25.5K 至 rent.


    Qualifying incomes! 那’另一个难题。如果您去:
    并输入91104邮政编码,然后查找中位数收入和中位数房屋价格。我不 ’看一下收入如何支持房价中位数。上面使用的示例属性在$ 85k的中位数收入区域中,这个区域正在绅士化。即便如此,如何证实55万美元至65万美元之间的房价呢?忘掉3.5倍的收入来估算合格的房价;这些大约是7倍。

    • 嗯,看一下缩略图计算。



      It’s 那 fake out from the tax credit 那 fools everyone. The 钱 is gone either way. The bank gets it or the govt gets it. We don’t.

    • 好贴。我同意。这里有很多人买不起一个好邻居的房子,所以他们欺骗自己以为自己持有“all the cards” by 出租 when in reality they are residing where they can afford 至. Nothing wrong with 那. But dont try and fool yourselves into believing 那 a rental neighborhood is the same as one where people own. Its not all about running the numbers when you have a family. 您 want stability and people with means are willing 至 pay for 那 “溢价。其余的,租金。

      • Prior 至 the bubble people were buying in 好邻居s and they will again as the bubble deflates. 首页 price discovery is difficult for everyone: banks, appraisers, real estate people, buyers, sellers, lenders, etc.. 什么 至 do?

        我们为什么要在HB医生处办理登机手续’的博客?因为我们宁愿购买而不是租金。那’s why I’m here. I want 至 buy something in a 好邻居 and am at a loss determining if this is a) the right time 至 buy, b) what are fair home prices. I accept good locations will have a premium over other locations. Does anyone doubt 那 once real estate turns around the 好邻居s will be in demand.

        帕特里克网’方便的计算器非常有用: http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php
        我将买卖成本清零,持有1年,输入适当的数据。对于伍德林的房子,假设齐洛’540,000美元的Zesstimate在球场上,我可以看到’是与租用同一物业相比所支付的溢价。它’大约每年$ 8K。那’s为租金支付的额外费用:1)减少抵押贷款,最终获得回报; 2)控制我自己的生活空间; 3)拥有社区所有权; 4)防止未来住房成本(购买或租赁)膨胀。它没有’对我来说似乎不可行。

      • Before basing your life on patrick.net, it is important 至 realize he is an EXTREME bear, and has on-camera in interviews telling people 那 it’在过去30多年的时间里,购买从来没有任何意义。

        “房屋投资不佳” – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDqCEyysOu0


        On 至p of 那, his calculator is very very very conservative. The long-term price-to-rent in CA has been 4-to-1, not 3-to-1. Many places are at 4:1 now, so looking for a good deal is not a bad idea.

      • 邻居必须有多好?那里的每个人都必须驾驶豪华车才能被视为“good neighborhood”?我认为我们这个学期经历了通货膨胀“good neighborhood” if 那 is your criteria. Does a place require good public schools 至 be considered a “good neighborhood”. By 那 criteria, NONE of Pasadena is a “good neighborhood”.

        Isn’t it enough 至 live in a neighborhood where you can walk at all hours and have pretty much zero fear of crime. Trust me there are plenty of rental neighborhoods like 那 and in fact the whole rental/ownership dichotomy is false. 租借homes often exist right besides homes for sale and what’更多的公寓通常就在房屋附近,公寓附近。我真的认为您对那里实际存在的租赁机会一无所知。

  • 恩佐·米莫(Enzo MiMo)

    回覆:“official” sale prices…只要记住,所有“players”有关人士对游戏/充气/说谎的价格有既得利益…从房地产到税务部门再到学区官僚再到BANKS /贷方,再到奥巴马行政法院再到杜美联储的魔术师。很多在FL上说谎的经历,而我’我也保证在CA中,买家会变得面目全非“rebates”,昂贵的游轮,汽车,家具和/或不需要的TIMESHARES合并成交易,自然而然地,足够少的首付和足够的零用钱来维持妈妈的生活…=:哦,是的,再说一遍… nose around, you’ll see.

    联邦调查局无法’即使他们想跟上… and they don’不想。正如Matt Taibbi @ Rolling Stone关于华尔街和美国的著名说法(在其出色的调查报告中):“我们生活在黑帮状态,我们对其他国家的嘲笑已经结束。”

    • I could not agree more with 那 quote from Matt!

      He pointed out 那 you had people with high school diplomas making 至ns of 钱, now I am pretty sure the majority of those people did not have much color in their skin lol.
      Here is a little history lesson, during the great depression. the blame was on Black people, 那 was when many of the racist cartoons come into being. It was nothing but misdirection. So trying 至 blame Mexicans because of bad home prices is ridiculous. Poor people of color in the so called ghetto are pretty much living the same way and this bubble is not hurting them in the way its hurting other people.
      Now those widgets are made overseas by slave labor so 那 high six figure job is gone for ever. And since he had no real job skills and has never really had 至 look 那 hard for work he has 至 blame someone. uum lets see who is the scapegoat?

  • 扣除利息后,就等于洗钱了。但是那里’s the down payment 那 gone and it’每年都不能免费维护房屋。更重要的是,问自己“未来几年价格会上涨吗?” People can rationalize all they want about rent vs. buy. But in the final analysis buying a home is a leveraged investment. These should only be made on things 那 are appreciating on a y-o-y basis.

  • 约翰CPA法学博士

    Zillo估计价值为$ 542 K,因为它是1230平方英尺。 $ 2100是这个价值的合理租金。加尔布雷思(Galbraith)的面积为1466平方英尺,约大20%,价值更高。它也是西班牙风格,带来更多,并且可能具有更好的视野。租金和加尔布雷思的地方肯定不相等。这取决于人。基本的庇护所可能很便宜,但要有个性的住所就要花钱。

  • 优秀的文章!带上我在东南亚附近的这个家。广告中说,租金是可以商定的。 270个月意味着业主在大力补贴房客。 270个月后,这个地方可能被拆了。 http://www.thonglo.com/CW/Chaeng_Wattana_House.html
    我自己在丝兰谷的高端租金表现也很差。 22万美元的房屋租金为1,350美元,38万美元的房屋租金为2,600美元。现在以气泡中花费$ 334 k的Murray Lane双工之一为例。我花了11.5万美元买了一辆(包括维修和油漆工作)。现在的租金为1,400英尺(约1,800英尺)和2个车库的租金为1,400美元。来自所有’从s的角度来看,2个这样的双工@ 23万美元将击败Pasadena的租赁业务。

  • 从另一个角度来看,我住在上海的中心位置。我的租金大约是固定价值的1%的1/6。现在也许更少了。在金融危机之前,这一比率是1%的1/4。

  • 圣诞节快乐。是时候庆祝和享受与您最亲近的人的陪伴。愿您欣赏别人增加他们的生活价值时,对您的生活的评价呈指数级增长。因为不管房价是上涨还是下跌,无论您是租房还是拥有,无论您有很多还是只有几样,如果您有一个充满爱心的家庭和有爱心的朋友分享您的生活,那么您将拥有无与伦比的财富。

  • 在未来的许多年里,房价将继续暴跌至可承受的水平。预计2011年止赎率将创下连续3年创下的新纪录。








  • 我住在Brigden Ranch地区–加尔布雷斯/伍德林附近。披露:由于房屋搬迁,我想出售房屋。那说–我于1982年购买并添加到该物业。它’不再是3 BR / 1 BA–更可取的。所有房屋(几乎?)都有单车车库和很深的地段,可提供大量的路外停车位。除经许可外,禁止在路边过夜停车。商店(超市,星巴克,干洗店,银行等)步行三分钟。前往洛杉矶市中心的轻轨向南1.5英里。邻居很愉快。我们有年度大聚会。帕萨迪纳有很多社区,人们认为“nice”. This is one of the 不错st. I’我看过房价– they’ve变软了一点。不过,重大价值损失–只有随着抵押贷款扣除的结束。一世’没有经济学家。这是一个舒适,安全的地方,孩子们在这里做得很好。如果您的孩子上了正确的公立学校,它将在东海岸地区排名最好。

  • 红宝石天堂

    不幸的是’在我们购物的邮政编码区中不是那么简单。由于家庭人数众多,我们需要4居室和/或至少2000平方英尺。在我们的三个邮政编码中’重新查看清单,共有3套可满足每月3200美元以下需求的房屋出租。同时,我们关注一个列表,该列表当前价格过高。它已经投放市场10个月了。卖方正在追逐市场。我们’我们已经查看过该物业,它处于原始状态,几乎是交钥匙的。但它’的价格远高于补偿,卖家以$ 50k的价格将价格降低了三倍。如果他们再次放弃它,我们可能会尝试以低至600美元的价格出售。根据每平方英尺的价格查看组合(因为该房屋比其附近的大多数房屋大)’目前的价值约为63万美元。


    我们唯一(最主要的)担心是,未来几年的贬值会是什么样子。一世’ve seen so many huge price decreases in the $600-$800k price bracket just in the past few weeks. $50k 至 $100k at a pop. Since we really hope 至 leave Southern California in about nine years, it feels pretty risky 至 hope 那 we could absorb, say, a 15% loss in home value after purchase, then make back the difference (or even a tiny gain) within a 9-year time frame.

    您看到达拉斯联储最近发布的这篇文章吗?他们 ’现在再次说,除了让价格在稳定出现之前再修正7-23%之外,住房市场没有真正的解决之道。



    • 那’几乎完全符合我们的情况。我们住在圣地亚哥,一直在积极寻找房子,要购买6个月以上才能决定租房。我们为这套房子支付了每月2500美元的月租,今年早些时候,其中一个同型号的房子以590,000美元的价格售出。它’洗,租vs。购买。但我们决定租用一年,并愿意等待,看看2011年将如何发展。

  • 帕萨·弗兰克

    刚刚以$ 2400 / mo的价格在Rose Bowl以西的Linda Vista地区租了一套房子,其中Zillows的租金为$ 900k。要在购买这样的房屋时获得类似的付款,我需要40万美元以上的首付!不用了,谢谢。

  • 尼克·汉德尔


  • 对此我真的很失望。










  • 帕萨迪南(Pasadenan)邻居

    I live in the neighborhood of 1900 Galbreth Road. I know the house. I know the sellers. I know the reason for sale. In fact the house went fast, at a 降低 price, due 至 certain external circumstances 那 are unrelated 至 housing bubble issues. Had the sellers waited even one more day 至 accept an offer, I think they might have done better on the price.

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