加州房地产 has taken a beating since the peak in 2007. 首页 prices statewide are down by 40 percent but many markets in 降低 priced areas have taken bigger hits like the 内陆帝国。甚至优质的A级A区也看到了价格调整的合理份额。还有更多的产品正在储备中。下一轮降价正在发生 中间层位置。这些城市包括 卡尔弗城 and Pasadena which we have covered extensively over the years. Today we are going 至 look carefully at a few city blocks in Pasadena and pull up rentals versus recent home purchases 至 show why the bubble is still in full bloom in these areas. Examples like this show us 那 加州房地产 在许多城市中，要维持当前的2011年估值将面临挑战。让我们看一下帕萨迪纳邮政编码为91104的租金和最近的购买情况。
Before we examine the map, it is important 至 note 那 buying a home will carry a premium. Yet how much should this premium be? 那 is the question and usually the benefits of owning a home include 减税s and assumed appreciation. This is why a home is bought from an economic perspective. The emotional part of excellent schools and having a place 至 establish roots is important only if incomes are there 至 back up the purchase and not some 脆弱的馅饼在天空抵押。在这里，您会挠头，看到公寓前面有80,000美元的租赁汽车，而在人们家门口的欧洲汽车则为他们的合并家庭赚了100,000美元。在烟雾和镜子的世界里，所有的都是债务或借来的时间。首先让我们检查一下我们的出租物业：
This is a 不错 rental in a good Pasadena area. This isn’t 纽波特海岸 but some readers were saying 那 it was near impossible 至 find a decent rental in these mid-tier markets. It 至ok me all but 2 minutes 至 find this place. Let us look at the sales history here:
So whoever owns this place with the current mortgage feels 那 $2,100 is sufficient 至 cover all the maintenance, principal, interest, and taxes on the place. Keep in mind 那 these people are 出租 out the home which puts them in the investor category. 您 will have vacancies and repairs but this is part of the business of being a landlord. So as it stands, the price 至 rent ratio works out 至:
$ 270,000 / $ 2,100 = 128
The current home price is the equivalent of 128 months of rent. For this, the 降低 the number the better. For example, if the place was 出租 for $3,000 the ratio would be 90. Let us look at a recent home sale in the area 那 is very similar:
该房屋于2010年9月1日以640,500美元的价格售出。正如我们之前记录的那样，南加州最近所有房屋购买中的36％以上是通过 FHA保险贷款 because of low down payments. Let us just hypothetically say 那 this purchaser put down 10 percent which is more than many current buyers are putting down:
PITI总数： $ 3,702（包括保险）
The 至tal monthly net payment is $3,702. Now think of this in relation 至 the other home 那 is on the market for rent at $2,100. This home doesn’t even come close 至 being a good investment deal. In fact, the current ratio on this place is up 至 305! Let us plot these homes out on a map:
您 can visually see how disconnected market fundamentals have become. Not only 那, you can see 那 a foreclosure a few homes down is on the market. The home was purchased for $ 749,000 in 2006 and who knows what it would fetch in 至day’s market. The foreclosure is only 2 bedrooms versus the 3 bedrooms for the recent sale and the rental. So if we use the recent sale as a comp, we are looking at a low $600,000 sale here. But even 那 is overpriced.
这是有趣的动态。租金是在泡沫破灭前或泡沫破灭前以270,000美元的价格购买的。租赁市场是了解某人实际上可以用其净收入支付而无需付出任何代价的一种极好的方法 政府或华尔街头贷款。出租的好处是住在上述房屋中并享受该地区的便利设施。您不必冲销拥有房屋的各种税收减免，但也不必支付维护，保险和年度税（考虑到大量 国家预算赤字). 您 also don’t carry the risk of being underwater which is now a new variable given 那 1 out of 3 California mortgage holders are swimming underwater on their mortgage.
In 2005 and 2006 I ran similar numbers for some of the 降低 income areas 那 had 天才的真正家园 以天文价格出售。在一个幸运的月里能卖到1000美元的地区，售价为500,000美元的房屋非常普遍。这里的数字保持不变，因此，因为这些是理想的邻域，但从基本面来看，显然将进行修正。这个地方的主人很高兴以每月2100美元的价格将其出租。它可能在这里变成获利或收支平衡。同样，这是市场将采取的唯一价格，否则所有者将要求更高的价格。有了租金，您就没有任何人为的刺激措施或政府的to俩来支撑价格。这就是一个希望在此地区生活而无需购买的人愿意并且有能力支付的东西。
As a rule of thumb, a great value is a home 那 can pull 1 percent or more of its purchase price per month. So 那 recent $640,500 would be a great deal if it were 至 rent at $6,450 per month. Obviously 那 isn’t the case.
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