Are we running out of 出租al housing? Forget about pent up demand for buying homes, the next big challenge will be on finding 出租al housing for younger 现金 strapped Americans.
One often hidden story in the housing market is the boring 出租al market. Sure, we talk about 投资者和普通购房者 但主流媒体很少对租房者进行深入分析。市场上没有强大的游说者团体，也没有庞大的营销引擎来提供更细微的租赁观点。任何真正的资金和广告都会进入买卖人群。有趣的是，即使在价格高涨的2013年狂躁情绪下（而不是直接与销售有关），销售数字仍然令人沮丧。租赁市场无疑是火爆的，因为许多潜在的买家都在争抢一套浴室垃圾棚。您也有专业人士不愿意花$ 750,000买一栋带院子的狗屋。尽管去年的躁狂症在典型的夏季热销季节逐渐消退，但租赁市场仍然非常紧张。实际上，随着租赁住房需求的蓬勃发展，发放的新许可证中有很大一部分将流向多户家庭。在加利福尼亚， 230万成年人在家中生活 so their likely first step into forming a household would be a 出租al. 您 also have many places like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida where 投资人 have been buying up for years now turning their single family homes into 出租al units. With the tight 出租al market, are we slowly running out of 出租als?
I’m obsessed with following the numbers when it comes 至 real estate. I really find the industry fascinating. For most people, the one segment of the economy 那 is going 至 eat most of your paycheck is going 至 be housing, either through mortgage payments or 出租s. People 那 own homes understand 那 那里 is always additional costs when you purchase a home. Upgrades, repairs, and for many trying 至 keep up with the Joneses with the latest cars, technology, and furniture. Buying a home creates spending in a multitude of other industries so it should be understandable why the obsession on housing exists.
We have certainly bounced off the bottom but we are a far cry from the over 2 million starts back 10 years ago. Much of the excess housing units are being sold off in this low inventory market. The question of course is what happens when you 价钱 families out? Many have no other option but 至 出租 or 与父母同住.
Household formation continues 至 be near a generational low. Until we start seeing this increase, 那里 is little reason 至 believe 那 home sales will take off again. And keep in mind 那 when someone moves out into a 出租al, this is a new 家庭形成. This would be the first step before thinking 那 someone is stepping out of their parent’s home into a $700,000 stucco box. We are simply not seeing this and 那 is why 投资人 have filled the gap for all the years since the housing bubble popped. They very much have 现金 or alternative methods of financing outside of 抵押贷款.
Higher 价钱s and stagnant household incomes have also pushed families into 出租als:
The demand is much higher on the 出租al side and is more in line with actual incomes of US households. People have champagne tastes but beer budgets. I still get many e-mails from people asking about buying advice (more like timing advice). I’ve always believed 那 you should rarely spend more than one-third of your gross monthly income on your 至 tal housing payment. California is a boom and bust market so good luck trying 至 time it but if you are comfortable with your monthly payment, go for it and buy 那 大萧条干壁石棺。尽管这些人一直在关注他们的下一个财产，但仍处于旋转的财产阶梯周期上。我们知道人们会在足彩预测中居住7到10年，因此这种怀旧的观念是人们将购买并保留30年，直到他们举行抵押抵押贷款聚会为止，这更像是一种退缩。 疯子 “过去的美好时光”更多地是神话故事而不是实际事实。哎呀，与行业中的一些人交谈，他们已经忘记了 7,000,000+止赎墓地 我们刚刚过去。
BLS measures 出租s or 拥有者’ equivalent of 出租 and 价钱s are going up
The current tight market has pushed 出租 价钱s up:
The 出租al market is tight and 价钱s have gone up. The CPI although a poor measure for actual home 价钱s, does a good job of measuring 出租s. It uses the 拥有者’ equivalent of 出租 measure and this has certainly moved up.
我什么s interesting is 那 you are seeing a higher quality of 出租als hitting the market. 您 are also seeing a lot of do-it-yourself folks putting up their home for a 出租al 至 capitalize on some 现金 flow.
The hive mind of our society can be seen by looking into the search queries with 谷歌 . Take a look at searches for 出租als and apartments:
It is fairly clear 至 see where the numbers are. 您 would expect 至 see more 出租al housing units filled followed by a jump in home buying across the board if the economy were truly booming. GDP 至 ok a big hit in Q1:
期货市场说这是一次性事件（但确实发生了，并且比大多数人预期的要深得多）。多头和空头都可以同意，全国许多大都市地区的中产阶级正在减少，我们可以从中看到这一点。 net domestic migration out of California for lower 价钱d states。加州等地的增长大部分来自外国出生的移民和新生。这是一个有趣的时刻，但也有助于解释当前的房地产市场。看起来我们正在进入 拐点 and 出租als are a good measure of overall household economic well-being. Landlords are going 至 charge as much as they can get from local area families and families will ultimately pay as much as they see fit. Yet 那里 is only so much you can charge before people start making economic tradeoffs (i.e., moving more inland, other states, with parents, etc).
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