的monster lurking in the 阴影 inventory – 12 million Americans underwater with nearly 6 million delinquent or in foreclosure with their 抵押贷款 . 的hidden benefit of not paying your mortgage.

影子库存 coming online in 2012 is going 至 have the biggest impact on the housing market.  With a weak jobs report 那 shows a labor force 那 declined by 164,000 you realize 那 人口趋势 现在正在这里发挥作用。随着银行的发展 拖欠性质 供应将上升,而传统库存仍然较低。  这正在发生.  We noted 那 in Southern California, over 所有MLS库存的50% is now composed of 卖空 showing 那 banks are now willing 至 sell homes for less than the original mortgage balance.  One of the more interesting trends is the aggressive pricing we are seeing on some of these listings.  Of those in actual 止赎, nearly half have made no mortgage payment in two years.  Now 那 banks are moving on these properties 那 hidden stimulus will be pulled away.  Think about not paying 出租 or a mortgage for two full years.  Let us take a look at the current state of the 阴影 inventory.

 不良库存管道

逾5,800,000多套房屋已逾期或处于止赎过程中:
阴影 inventory 2012 chart

You need 至 remember 那 the first two columns rarely show up on the MLS.  These homes have yet 至 even hit the foreclosure process so do not 显示为库存.  These are simply home 所有者’s not making payments on their home for a variety of reasons.  Cure rates have been pathetic so most of these will end up as 止赎.  Then you move 至 the loans in foreclosure category and many are not on the MLS as well.  You have the three stages of foreclosure:

-已提起违约通知(至少三笔未偿抵押贷款)

-NTS(预定拍卖)

-REO(银行拥有)

即使财产归银行所有,也可能需要数月(一年)的时间才能将其纳入MLS。总计超过5,800,000个属性是拖欠财产或处于止赎状态。当查看现有库存时,仅显示图片的一小部分:
影子库存

自2007年以来,现有库存已呈下降趋势,许多分析师只是将其视为唯一的衡量住房库存的指标。这仅反映了大约200万个属性,而另外700万个属性是:

-90天以上的违约时间

-在止赎过程中

-银行拥有的房地产

-当前但在水下

So what you have is a giant pool 那 isn’t viewable 至 the public but is slowly leaking into the blue category.  那 is, the existing category has room 至 grow simply because the other pipelines are so enormous and one option is 至 get out ahead of the curve by allowing 卖空.  With home prices making post bubble lows and household incomes stagnant for well over a decade, there is little reason 至 see pressure for higher prices.  As we noted with a shrinking labor force because of lower paying jobs or 人 dropping out of the labor force where will pressure for higher prices come from?  Mortgage rates are artificially low thanks 至 the 美国联邦储备 以及低首付贷款 FHA保险贷款 产品的杠杆能力最大,买家可以进入房地产。利率不可能降低,我们知道 FHA贷款 will get more expensive in the upcoming months because default rates are soaring.  What a shocker 那 allowing 人 with almost no down payment 至 buy expensive homes is causing further issues.

随着越来越多的人住在自己的房屋中,迷你刺激也将消失 免费付款 will lose 那 advantage:

“维格兰:  So first of all, can you give us a sense of how prevalent this is? What are the numbers of 人 who are squatting in their own homes?

Feroli:  好吧,现在你’大约有8%的未偿还抵押贷款已经到期,并且那里大约有4,400万抵押贷款。那么你’re talking about a pretty significant number of 人 who right now are not paying their mortgage.

维格兰(Vigeland):  哇。那么,您如何得出500亿美元的影响估算呢?

Feroli:  对。所以那里’家庭部门所欠的约10万亿美元抵押贷款债务。那么你’重新考虑约8000亿美元的抵押贷款—平均利率约为6%或略高于此。当然,这些抵押中的大多数都处于早期阶段。’s mostly interest 那 you’re paying. So 6 percent on a little over $800 billion comes out 至 about $50 billion per year 那 are free for other purposes.”

500亿美元实在不容小at。一样 MLS出现卖空交易 看起来这种趋势每天都会结束。

水下民族

看看有多少美国人的抵押贷款在水下:
负资产房屋

“拥有”房屋的大约1200万美国人在房地产上的欠款超过了如今的房地产价值。因此,随着越来越多的物业进入管道,几乎没有理由相信需求曲线会向上移动。在短期内,我们可能会看到供应方面的变化:

供求住房

这正是正在发生的事情,也是房价继续下跌的原因。例如,中端市场 在过去的24个月中,南加州的房价下跌了8%。为什么?部分原因是市场上出现了更多的卖空交易,并且由于家庭收入停滞,人们对低价房产的需求也很大。因此,随着越来越多的房屋泄漏到库存中,为什么我们应该期待这种趋势的逆转?

似乎许多媒体都承认住房市场的第二次考验。现在有什么可以减轻这种情况的发生?如果我们看到在高薪领域获得了强劲的工作增长,而家庭收入却在增加,那么就有理由为房价上涨辩护。仅仅说房价会上涨是因为“通货膨胀”会上升,这没有抓住重点。我们看到诸如燃料和食品之类的全球商品正在上涨,因为它们可以运往任何地方,而且由于美联储的推动,美元受到打击。但是,对于住房来说,这是一种当地商品,因此,当地家庭收入确实很重要,这就是我们所看到的。像这样的地方 拉斯维加斯 大量低薪服务行业的工作现在使房屋售价低于10万美元。考虑到他们当地的人口统计,这是有道理的。在加利福尼亚州,该市场的每个细分市场均出现了大幅降价。

一样 阴影 inventory hits the market the supply curve is likely 至 increase even though some analysts might only narrowly focus on the existing MLS inventory 那 only highlights a small part of the 至 tal picture.  This is missing the next trend like arguing Alt-A和次级贷款 were a good thing just because defaults initially were extremely low.  的demand side can shift but only if incomes go up and 就业 really picks up.  Also, many younger Americans are saddled with 高水平的学生债务,赚的钱更少.  So who will many of these older home 所有者s sell homes 至 ?  Certainly not at price levels they would hope 至 get.  Yet banks control a large part of the inventory and 卖空 and foreclosure sales will dominate in many markets because prices are more set 至 what the market will support.  After half a decade and with housing making nominal lows it looks like some are finally getting it 那 those nostalgic high prices are unlikely 至 ever come back again.

Did You Enjoy 的Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information.

 

 

Did You Enjoy 的Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information





114回应 至 “The monster lurking in the 阴影 inventory – 12 million Americans underwater with nearly 6 million delinquent or in foreclosure with their 抵押贷款 . 的hidden benefit of not paying your mortgage.”

  • 标记到市场将使价格在一夜之间下跌30%。烦恼和挑衅永远不会让这种事情发生。一些方案(或许多方案)可能会导致未来几年的通货紧缩。

    我不’不明白。如果布什只是让银行倒闭,我们将已经全面复苏。有关示例,请参见冰岛和阿根廷。失败?有关示例,请参见欧洲和日本。

    • 爸爸,请为布什提出一个与奥巴马一样贬低的绰号。你知道吗,公平和平衡?

      • 是!谢谢!特别是因为我们仍在遭受灌木丛的破坏。

      • 为什么?布什已经够糟糕了。

      • 那’有趣的是,我同意布什是一个灌木丛,但实际上奥本巴(他像布什一样轰炸了伊拉克,炸毁了利比亚)的花费比布什和所有其他总统/国会总和还多了。

    • 我一年中大部分时间都住在阿根廷。经济自由落体:通货膨胀率约为25/30%;比索正稳步失去对储备货币的储备。政府’s fiscal deficit is increasing 25% a year; the Central Bank has just announced 那 its (small) reserves can be used by the Executive Branch 至 do whatever it wants; the peso is no longer backed by anything; the 债务 of the country hovers $140 billion; etc etc.

      • Well, you know what they say, Chileans save 钱 , and Argentines spend it. A recovery in Argentina derailed by 疯 spending. Some 人 never learn.

      • 再次?不’这种情况至少发生在阿根廷十年一次吗?

    • 竖起大拇指希望大家都明白这一点。

    • When will everyone learn, Washington (both parties) are the collective enemy. 他们 have declared war on all of us. Keep pointing the fingers 人, while the Republicrats continue 至 destroy America.

  • 沮丧的观察者

    我同意你的一切’re stating. However an unintended result of all these underwater home 所有者s not being able 至 sell and banks either not foreclosing in a timely manner or holding on 至 foreclosed properties and not putting them on the market has been a shortage of 活性 listings especially in attractive areas.
    我们正在谈论的地区,即使在经济崩盘之后,房屋销售价格的中位数也已经超过收入中位数的6-8倍。就像旧金山湾区的丹维尔(Danville)和马林县(Marin County)。
    我已经看了很长时间(超过7年)的这些市场,并最终决定尝试购买。
    我什么’我看到的是令人难以置信的步行者住房优惠。买家放弃了评估,并出价超过要价。刚好有’与购买者相比(其中一些拥有超过50%的首付定金)具有足够的吸引力。我从未见过类似的东西,有时房屋上市不到半个星期,最终因多次询价而告终(我们’再谈论价格在$ 800- $ 900,00之间的房屋)。一世’我不确定这笔钱是从哪里来的。
    Even stale bank owned properties in bad condition are non negotiable, the banks would rather let the properties in these areas sit empty and rot , rather than sell them at a price 那 would account for cost of everything 那 needs 至 be fixed. I’我们已经看到Alamo银行拥有的充满干腐病的物业要价超过一百万,而银行不愿议价。
    It’s a sorry state of affairs, while over 500 properties are in some stage of foreclosure between Walnut Creek and Danville alone 人 are snapping up expensive properties like candy.Not even during bubble years did I ever see such frenzy.
    It’s sad 那 prices are not allowed 至 come down 至 real levels. I worry for the next generation. If this madness is not stopped would they ever be able 至 buy a house in a decent area.

    • 受托人销售巨魔

      我已经看到同一件事开始发生。库存刚刚干drying。当然,有很大的管道,但如果不出售,就无法购买。有许多潜在的买主正在观望中,现在他们想要购买,但由于没有房源,他们不能。我在上次报价中以10%的价格列出了一所房子,并在一小时内以20%的价格提供了全价。我们几乎一直在以要价或高于要价的价格出售房屋。这太疯狂了,也许三年前的所有违约者现在都可以再次获得贷款资格…

    • 伊恩·奥尔曼(Ian Ollmann)

      This recession has really been the tale of two economies. 的best of times for some and the worst of times for the rest. 的pool of buyers obviously comes from the “best” economy.

      Moreover, looking at any graph here, and most anywhere, it seems quite clear 那 the worst is 我们后面 and things are picking up again. It may take quite some time 至 unravel it all and return 至 “normal” —我最喜欢的情节是此页面上的第一个情节:

      http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/employment-summary-and-discussion.html

      但是趋势很明显并且已经存在了一段时间。

      • 的worst is hardly “behind us”伯南克现在安静地说“if”经济不回暖,随后的下一轮量化宽松…and 那’只是伪造。用自己创造的钱购买自己的债务,并收取利息,除非破产,否则将永远解决不了任何问题。

        我不’t care what charts you are looking at, 债务 is rising, jobs are not being created with decent income, and 那 can they keep kicking down the road with 钱 打印ing is going 至 eventually be crushed into oblivion.

    • 真的短缺吗?您是说像排队等候,睡在车里,装满现金的行李箱的人一样?我已经’我最近没去过旧金山,但是到了洛杉矶,他们都过去了,他们带着a弹枪来守护自己的钱,而他们在公园的公共汽车椅下睡觉时,我的意思是到处都是!疯狂!1当$ 750K的奖金降到了MLS时,前面草坪上至少有100个人,疯狂地期待着随之而来的竞标之战。无论您能找到什么,您最好抢购一空,他们不会再拥有更多土地!

      • 尽管你的嘲讽’s pretty close 至 true. A 399k 3/2 REO went up in Burbank and there was a line of 人 going through. Multiple all cash offers. I kid you not, this is the market! I couldn’t see the property because there were so many 人 in the house it was like someone brought a keg. All we needed was the garage band!

      • 的mini-heart attack was in 2008. 的big one is coming late this year in 2012.

    • 布兰克芬勋爵

      沮丧的观察者,我’m not very familiar with bay area real estate, but it sounds like the areas you are interested in (Danville, Marin County) always have been and always will be highly sought after. There are plenty of areas like 那 in LA/OC 至 o 那 will always command a big premium (Malibu, Manhattan Beach, Newport Beach, etc). Like you are saying, shitboxes 那 go for 800K plus!

      I have come 至 the conclusion 那 some of these areas will never be available 至 your average upper/middle class buyer. You either need 至 be making serious 钱 or come from a rich family 至 buy in these areas. Take a look a rung or two lower on the housing ladder. I’我肯定该地区会有一些弊端,但相对于类似的狗屎盒,花500K而不是800K听起来肯定更好。

      • 这是什么’s really happening in the US now. 的areas 那 are relatively 安全, with good schools etc.. are for the “haves”其他的一切都变成了“have nots’。我当地的引擎盖曾经很不错,但是现在’s lots of section 8 and others 那 have dragged it down…while the more 可取的 areas still have 人 clambering 至 get into them because the once marginal areas have now degraded. Am I the only person seeing this????

    • 不用担心下一代!在全球经济中,我们不能销售生活成本高的产品,因为它’最终价格太高。我们购买的大多数商品都可以在世界许多地方以更低的成本生产。通过当今的全球竞争压力,人们认为通过抬高房价来改善经济状况的想法已经过时了。我们不再是镇上唯一的消费者和生产者。获得了体面的薪水(相对于生活成本)的稳定工作’直到房价回到现实,使我们的劳动力具有全球竞争力的时候,再回来。除非所有产品,否则任何银行或政府都无法更改该等式’生产成本得到补贴– 那 won’不会发生。不管您想要与否,房价都将继续下跌。消除泡沫之后,下一代就可以了。

      • 格雷格在洛杉矶

        CAE , I hear what you are saying about the more 可取的 areas staying good and the less popular areas getting filled up with riff raff and section 8 出租ers. 那 situation scares me a lot. I left for the suburbs 5 years ago because life in Los Angeles no longer resembled the United States. In fact it seemed 至 me 至 be like a third world country.
        的thing 那 I have noticed in my area is 那 some of the older or more marginal areas in my suburb are getting slightly better. A lot of the Mexican illegal aliens and riff raff got forclosed on in 2008 -2010, and better 人 have replaced them.
        I’m hoping this will continue 至 be the case. Big demographic 更改s can be truely scary.

      • @格雷格在洛杉矶– Wow. Didn’t resemble the United States, Section 8 and riff raff, more 可取的 人. Where do I start? I’ve heard these same arguments before. 的enemy is holding all of these fake mortgage notes not our brothers and sisters struggling 至 survive. Caucasian 人 are well on their way 至 being a minority in the USA. Deal. Better yet, leave.

      • 格雷格在洛杉矶

        @goldhorder,谢谢’很好地表达了我的观点。

    • 银行唐’不要让现实中的损失阻碍他们的幻想票据利润。

    • 的money is coming from several sources: Russian and Chinese 投资人 who want 至 be landlords for upper income workers. Tech and financial services workers are the other side of the bid for those attractive Alt A properties.

    • 苏珊·霍奇森(Susan Hodgson)

      您是如此完全正确。一世’在过去的几年中,我一直在注视着加利福尼亚南部的文图拉县的市场,唯一待售的库存是银行以蜗牛般的速度释放出的小运球。它’s sickening how they’重新尝试保持价格上涨。物业开盘的第一个小时便出现了多个离谱的报价,通常卖方代理人已经排队好要报价,然后再打折,一个全新的清单已经显示待处理。那怎么合法。它’在房地产经纪人之间煽动了许多不道德的行为。这些吸血鬼正以贪婪的心提防自己,投资者正在购买一切,以便那些想要和需要住在该地区的人能够’t. So what’s the answer!!!!!

  • On 至 p of 那, the education bubble. People with such large payments due on their education loans they can’负担不起房屋付款或他们的信用等级’t let them qualify 至 buy. Maybe the single housing areas can be rezoned for multi-family and the larger houses split up into 出租al apartments.

  • 我了解所有这些,并感到担心。但是,我的妻子是一名房地产经纪人,在凤凰城地区拥有许多房屋(就止赎而言,这是受影响最严重的地区之一)。我们一直在寻找自己的家。

    There has been a dramatic 更改 in the past 6 months. Over the past 6 months, it has really turned into a seller’市场。她展示了一所房子(并非总是如此,但常常卖空),并且在2天内有10-15个报价。有多个竞标价格,如果您想买房子,您要比要价高得多,并且可以避免其他任何突发事件。

    I think there are a lot of 人 who have been on the sidelines and looking 至 buy. 的new properties are going off the market as soon as they are coming on, at least in the lower 至 mid price range. Prices are going up here, not down (so different from CA).

    有什么想法吗?

    • 由于理想的LA仍然以我们的GoodYear飞艇的速度放气’s, I’一直以来,菲尼克斯的投资物业一直是利用可操纵的低利率和价格暴跌的邪恶组合的地方。问题在于,加拿大有大量的石油和黄金资金竞标房地产,以便快速进行交易。它’令人难以置信的是,您在2010年到2012年之间可以找到多少次翻转。这些人对成为陆上动物没有兴趣。只需走到法院的台阶上,放下钱就可以快速完成任务。现金是一种毒品。

      • 苏珊·霍奇森(Susan Hodgson)

        Dfresh 你在开玩笑吧。洛杉矶的价格正在下跌。我们离基地很远。做你的作业人。价格上涨,多个报价。认真穿’从你不说话’t know

    • I’m working wih a fellow 那 lives in Tamp Bay area, and he paid $262,000 a few years back, and now the houses in his neighborhood for same house have fallen 至 $82,000.

      So, maybe Phoenix is creating jobs somehow, some way, (where you do not state) 那 allow 人 至 save and snatch up houses, but it ain’t happening everywhere, 那’s for sure.

    • 达拉斯/沃思堡也一样。市场交易日短促,价格上涨,是的,卖空和止赎是混合的。 2007年,我们在市场上有43,000套房屋,而今天市场上有大约24,000套房屋。库存正在减少,而不是增加。得克萨斯州的好处之一是拥有非司法赎回权的州。

      我是房地产经纪人和评估师,是的,我确实知道这个市场。

      • PHX市场由成千上万个10万以下的房屋组成–所以算一下–您拥有美国最大的都会区之一,并且可以以每月800-1100的价格出租房屋– pick it up for 70K –支付现金或放下20%的款项,由于银行利率不给您带来任何收益,您将获得丰厚的回报。这就是房屋在这里疯狂卖出的原因–现在要搬到30万以上的房屋,事实并非如此–他们出售,但不提供5-10个要约。同样,在PHX中,MLS上的库存已大量减少,因此属性较少。我收到来自各地投资者的电话和电子邮件,他们正在寻找想要支付现金的公寓,房屋,联排别墅或露台房屋–因此,目前只不过是投资者,因为第一次购房者被挤出市场。现在前往CA,低端房屋的平均价格至少是PHX的3倍。

    • 我认为本文的重点是向您介绍影子库存。银行正在让足够多的房屋进入市场,而投资者正在购买房屋(在很多情况下,都在竞购战中,例如凤凰城)…But don’不要上当。最终,银行将不得不处理大量的影子库存,并且随着它们的冲击(有一天)冲击市场,这很可能使房价跌至创纪录的低点(供需权?)。当然,除非银行找到一种方法以尽可能少的损失卸载影子库存。我不知道该怎么办。

  • 什么是对冲策略?短房地产投资信托基金?商品?弹药和种子?

  • 一如既往的出色!汇总的事实和演示文稿帮助我以紧凑且过于实际的方式理解了整个混乱。我现在仍然相信,美联储用尽了最初的两个工具来对抗止赎赎回权的混乱,而现在,他们将依靠第三个工具(以某种方式甚至会导致通货膨胀)。第一个工具是低息贷款,再加上(与银行和国会一起)用于商业,住宅,政府贷款的低息贷款,甚至仍然是无息贷款(现在甚至是投机房投资者)。预计2007年后的标准将起到作用,以节省资产负债表和银行/投机商/金融机构的财富。我将假设一个事实,因为除了事实之外,我别无他法,在2000-07年至今,直到现在为止,银行/美联储都不了解其日益宽松的货币,并且无首付政策因明显的快速变化而被隐藏或账本化正如DrHB所说,人口趋势实际上减少了已婚家庭的数量。我发现了两项非常有影响力且写得很好的研究,这些研究为什么没有新房和购房者,却赢得了’t be as many by far: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/07/26/wealth-gaps-rise-to-record-highs-between-whites-blacks-hispanics/ 的other shocking study by the same scholars is this new one: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/12/14/barely-half-of-u-s-adults-are-married-a-record-low/

    我还指出,DrHB是正确的,房主为2000-07的许多贷款支付了孩子大学的失控上升成本。房屋泡沫的剩余资产基本上消失了,取而代之的是,政府不断向学生提供的直接贷款(根据定义,他们没有信贷支持贷款)旨在解决问题,并继续将钱投入到大型教育中。美联储的第三个工具是货币总通胀,并且由于人口增长(几乎全部是少数族裔)’由于这些确切的趋势导致更多的家庭,这并没有’除了公寓项目(主要由单身成年人占据)以外,它几乎可以解决财产价值崩溃的问题。美联储/政府可以以某种方式印钞’t get 那 they can’t “print”创建希望购买上半年购房者的已婚家庭。

    • 伊恩·奥尔曼(Ian Ollmann)

      > I still believe now 那 the 美国联邦储备 exhausted with minimal success
      > the first two 至 ols used 至 counter the foreclosure mess, and now, 那 they
      >将依靠第三个工具(以某种方式甚至更多的通胀)。

      当然,“even more”通胀将有所帮助。但是,与普遍观点相反,当前的通货膨胀率相对较低:

      http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/key-measures-of-inflation-in-january.html

      我们目前面临的真正问题是缺乏投资。大量资金流入了非生产性资产,例如国库券,现金和黄金,而没有足够的资金流入建造工厂。赢得通货膨胀’t scare off the 金 bugs, but it will do a number on anyone holding cash and bonds. Once 人 figure out 那 their “safe” cash is actually a guaranteed annualized loss of 5-10% due 至 通货膨胀 , 那 cash will be put 至 good use! You can be sure.

      的“real recovery” — the one 那 ends all public doubt as 至 whether there is a recovery — will happen IMO when the public sector works its way out of its problems, stops shedding jobs and starts growing again. (Hence, politicians trying 至 cut the public sector are actually part of the reason unemployment is so intractable.) 的private sector is doing just fine, growing 就业 at annual rates last seen in 2006.

      http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-daily-rundown/46976500/
      http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/03/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/9143983/Graphic-Fall-in-public-sector-employment-masked-by-private-sector-growth.html

      那 last one is for the UK. There is a similar plot showing most private sector job growth offset by state and local layoffs, out there somewhere. I couldn’t find it, alas.

      • Have you been 至 the grocery store lately? Have you seen the gas prices? Price of stamps, eating out, etc. We are being lied 至 . According 至 John Williams of ShadowStats, true 通货膨胀 is running about 8% 至 10%. Housing has been so decimated by the Banksters 那 通货膨胀 won’t hit it.

      • By “real recovery”我想知道从哪里来?如果没有美联储仅通过印钞就将数万亿美元投入经济,我们现在将处于萧条中”。如果我们不是储备货币的话,那么良好的旧美国现在的生活水平将等于或低于阿根廷。好吧,现在是个坏消息,我们将不会在五年内成为储备货币。各国已经在绕过美元,并以本国货币或黄金进行交易。世界其他地区根本不会让我们只印钞票,然后基本上让我们免费购买,石油,金属等。就这些极少数拥有白痴追逐高价的地区而言,这只是表明他们仍然有泡沫的心态。第三世界的典型情况是,只有极少数地区非常昂贵,而其余地区却要下地狱。最后是种族。在洛杉矶,有很多地方可以居住,但是谈论的只是所有白人地区的萎缩。有趣的是,我从来没有看到这里所说的不是莉莉·怀特的地方。这是从未讨论过的不言而喻的真理。

      • 坦白地说,听MSNBC和电讯报似乎是可靠的消息来源,真是可笑。

        他们 are corporate speak propagandists, and 那 is all they are.

      • “但是,与普遍观点相反,当前的通货膨胀率相对较低:”

        根据联邦调查局,是的。我的朋友那是一个意见。它’联邦调查局的意见,但仍然是意见。真理是另外一回事,人民也知道。

        So CPI is a direct lie and you really need only 至 follow two major costs 至 see 那: Food and gas.

        Shadowstats.com tells us 那 the real 通货膨胀 is above 10% and if you have a long commute, 通货膨胀 至 you personally is more than 20% as gas is a major cost 至 you.

        “Official” being 2. Is there anyone sane believing 那?

  • 如果有’s roughly 3.6M 人 not paying their mortgage, this means a lot of banks would go belly-up if these homes were processed in a timely manner. Not only 那, but prices would plummet. Thus, the govt allowed FASB mark-to-market rules 至 be suspended so 那 inventory could be released in drips and drabs. I see absolutely no reason why things will all of the sudden “change”成千上万的房屋像雪崩般涌入市场。想一想。

    • 格雷格在洛杉矶

      我喜欢您对CAE的观察。
      I’ve been watching the bubble since 2005 and I concur 那 the plan between the banks and Government is 至 let the properties drip out in a slow and controlled way. There are variations though this controlled dripping. Right now we are in a low inventory phase closely timed 至 match the spring buying season. 的next phase will be a higher inventory phase, which will have further price reductions.
      我敢肯定,很多人已经注意到这种高低库存周期了很多年了。
      我想这将是很长一段时间内发生的事情。
      银行与政府之间的这一计划(保证金)的一部分没有被提及,就是银行正在为所有这些拖欠,未付款和丧失抵押品赎回权的财产缴纳财产税。如果查看计划出售给受托人的任何财产的税收记录,您会看到这些税收是最新的。谁在缴纳这些财产税?是吗“owner”谁违约?当然不是,拥有抵押的是银行。实际上,银行将支付的财产税作为对地方政府的纾困。

      的Federal government bails out the banks, and the banks use some of the 钱 至 bail-out the local governments.

      对于那些希望购买房地产的人,我的建议是不要以低库存周期购买房地产。等到我们处于高库存周期。

      • 好吧,格雷格。今天在这里有很多好的观察。

        One question about the prospect of banks 出租ing REOs in large numbers: given how ridiculously high prop taxes rose during the bubble (they DOUBLED in Cook County during the aughts, and have not come down a drop), won’银行可能会向地方税务部门施加压力以降低利率吗?只要他们不这样做,这种机构压力实际上可能是一个福音。’不能只为自己休息一下(我知道,这种可能性更大)。有什么想法吗?

      • 布兰克芬勋爵

        格雷格在洛杉矶,出色的职务。在极低的库存周期内购买绝对不是您想要的。 6个月前,我们有大量库存,发生了什么变化?如果您今年需要或想要购买,那么等到“slow season”…10月,11月和12月的时间表。在一年中的这段时间内,买家之间的竞争通常要少得多。谁知道银行将如何处理影子库存,他们知道’不要立即发布它,因此我怀疑从该角度来看会不会更糟。

      • 是的,让’我们建议您从洛杉矶的格雷格(Greg)购买房屋,该房屋一直在该网站上张贴反移民的,被绑架的BS。傻瓜和他们的钱…..O你知道这句话。

    • 那’为什么取消抵押品赎回权“tsunami”DRB曾预测几年前’如果实现了,那时候的所有指标都会被诅咒。现在我们’在库存方面完全处于点滴和单调模式,那么对我们的微型市场而言,下一个意想不到的后果是什么“desirable”南加州?请问DRB’我们对价格最终与当地收入一致的预测成为了现实,或者我们正处于曼哈顿化的新阶段,这似乎已经在S.F.已经?

      • 的foreclosure 海啸 didn’发生这种情况是因为抢劫式唱歌丑闻拖慢了止赎过程。我看了一张图(可以’t find it again i’m afraid) 那 showed a huge drop in foreclosure activity in around november 2010. It declined by around 25% i believe.
        的recent agreement between the banks and the government has basically allowed the banks 至 ignore their robbo signing 舞弊 , so expect 那 huge inventory 至 start flowing again.

      • 好吧,我’看到它我就会相信。甚至在Robo签约崩溃之前,还没有出现止赎的雪崩。暂停按市值计价法可以使会计欺诈合法化,但是任何将财产从银行账簿中扣除的交易都必须以支付的价格记录下来。这将导致大规模的银行倒闭,因为那里的准备金率可能会飙升。我想政府可能会继续暂停不同的会计规则和银行法…….

  • 银行一直在缓慢回购资金’进入市场,以便尽可能保持价格上涨。几乎所有银行在功能上都资不抵债,但假装他们没有’t through holding at face values assets (mortgages) 那 are actually worth less than 30% 至 50% of original value.

    Banks are trying 至 maintain or increase their reserve levels and balance 那 against the 抵押贷款 they can afford 至 write off on a yearly basis. Whether or not the banks will continue pull it off remains 至 be seen.

    My biggest worry is 那 something will trigger a massive mortgage write off, which will vaporize a lot of the major banks in the US. If 那 event happens, it will be catastrophic.

    就个人而言,我希望银行在未来几年内将这些房产流回市场。是的’并非完全诚实,但替代方案更有可能变得更糟。

  • 戴夫·巴恩斯

    我只是不’在丹佛看不到这个。
    [可见]库存下降。减少了近40%。
    成交量增加了50%。
    而且,到目前为止,库存没有激增。
    I think the 阴影 is a myth in Denver.

  • 当您听到有关湾区,硅谷和西洛杉矶部分地区的竞标战时,请考虑两点。一,这是房地产的一小段。第二,它主要是由另一个泡沫,即科技行业来支撑的。在Google和Facebook之间,您拥有成千上万的即时百万。在Google,Oracle和Apple之间,您的市值几乎达到一万亿美元。这与90年代的技术泡沫相同’s,最终会崩溃。真正的市场是在堪萨斯州的Witchita等地,您可以以25,000的价格购买房屋,然后在加利福尼亚州的Los Gatos大都市以超过一百万的价格出售。苹果的价值比埃克森美孚高150%。您希望拥有哪一种设备,使世界运转的Ipad或交通工具?或者,也许“social network”给你宠坏的小子?如果您认为世界经济的未来是建立在廉价的BS促进者(推特)和小工具的基础上的,那么请继续做梦。不久的一天,世界将变得食物,燃料和运输极为匮乏。但是,到底谁会在乎您是否是拥有200美元的耐克和Ipad的半文盲。您为什么认为中国人正在购买南美和非洲的农田,并拥有自己的澳大利亚?是的,我们是专为轻巧而设计的。每天,我都会聘请一位出色的农艺师担任史蒂文·乔布斯。

    • 政府命令以JOBS法案的形式扩大了技术泡沫,该法案已由奥巴马周四签署成为法律。这个“gift”的硅谷游说者(今天可以在《华尔街日报》的前部看到)将在这个很小的地方延长繁荣时期“具有战略意义”允许500万Groupon式的欺诈行为在五年内泛滥成灾。这将通过放宽对初创公司的会计规则来完成,’在思考下一件大事或购买加勒比海的私人岛屿时,必须向投资者证明获利能力的负担。欢呼新的美国法西斯主义(眨眼眨眼)“capitalism!”

    • What about the bidding war I just lost in 92123, not the 最好 area and the house got 11 offers? 的winning bid was 21K over as and AS IS!

    • 尽管我对您的评论有些同意,但请记住,我们的媒体失败了,人们对事情的真实情况并没有真正的了解。我们的国家到处都是未受过教育的守望先锋的狐狸。天堂’提示哪种方式是向上还是向下。做得好的人不要’注意。有时候我可以’相信人们是多么无知。大学毕业生,研究生院–他们一无所知,并坚信NAR会不断地大肆宣传。可再生能源代理商最糟糕。由于投资者正在购买成千上万的房屋,他们的小世界很美好,只要对那些人放轻松一点即可。他们不’该死的生活仍在继续。

      • 布兰克芬勋爵

        Bobi,那么你有真正没有受过教育的小兵谁’不要看任何新闻,个人不要’t give a rat’这个国家正在变成什么样的人。只要第8节支票,福利,EBT和免费学校午餐像发条一样不断滚动…他们可以继续坐在教练旁边观看美国偶像和与星共舞!

    • 的bidding wars are all over. Not just Silicon Valley. It’洛杉矶,旧金山,圣地亚哥,可能还有所有州都遭受重创。许多投资者都是发大财的人,他们向毫无戒心的买家推销不良抵押贷款。也许是RE代理商和经纪人也向买家撒了大笔钱。

    • 沮丧的观察者

      I completely agree. 的problem is, since the 90s and even before then, Bay Area has always been is different bubbles, tech, housing etc.and after each bubble , Bay Area seems 至 get stuck with a big portion of the appreciation in the housing.
      There is 至 o much Silicon Valley funny or real 钱 floating around here, making the cost of living go up in stratosphere, which makes it very hard for any other type of business 至 thrive. 的cost of living ( primarily housing) makes it very hard 至 find employees at reasonable rates.
      As a former small business 所有者( I’m a healthcare provider) we always dealt with several issues 那 was making running a profitable business very hard (these are problems 那 almost all Bay Area small businesses deal with):
      商业实际刚毛成本(租金或购买)非常高。
      高昂的员工成本(由于高昂的生活成本),以及由于住房和一般生活成本以及海湾地区大部分地区缺乏优质学区而没有可支配收入的客户。私人学校学费超过24,000美元小学水平的每个孩子每年,高中水平的每年超过30,000美元。
      我知道这些数字听起来很疯狂,’对于90年代以来一直住在她的我来说,听起来再合理不过了。
      There are practically three areas here with 安全 and decent public schools. Southern Marin, Parts of Silicon Valley and parts of East Bay. East Bay used is the cheapest amongst the above.
      It seems however 那 the Silicon Valley cash is finding its way into parts of East Bay( I believe these are 人 who have been priced out of Silicon valley or do not like what they get for their 钱 ) and are now getting into nicer East Bay areas. 的same thing happened during the last tech bubble at the end of 90’s.
      的funny thing about all the excess Silicon Valley cash is 那 even after the tech professionals had bought multi million dollar mansions at the height of the last tech bubble, once the bubble was burst they could not even pay 财产税es out of their ordinary income and had 至 sell the properties!

  • @matt

    我很同意你。实际上,实际通货膨胀率是8-10%…..govt。所有人都在撒谎….

  • 一个词概括了当前的房地产市场。“CHAOS” We’今天从未经历过市场’s conditions. NEVER… It will be several years before we will see a 正常 market or even the resemblance of one.

    保持出色的工作医生!

    • You are right about 那. I keep telling everyone I found the house of my dreams during the biggest housing bubble in history, 2000, yet during this so called housing crash I have been looking for nearly 3 years now for something I would be happy with.

      All I see is junk 那 needs 150K in work in rotten areas or nice houses at near peak prices.

      Zero percent 钱 may go away for awhile but now 那 we have crossed 那 bridge, as soon as the economy falters, zero 钱 will be back. I would even venture 至 say 那 the children born in the next 10 years will someday read in their history books 那 “once upon a time, 人 could actually earn interest on their savings”

      • It’最终是一个案例,为什么当政府只能够(为银行等)创造货币时,为什么要支付任何人的利息来借钱呢?

  • So, I have been lurking for a little bit. And very confused about RE in LA. We will be moving 至 LA over this summer. Both myself and my wife are 高薪专业人士, and looking 至 buy. However, it seems 那 LA housing bubble has not fully deflated yet. Santa Monica is still @ 2004 (5 years into a bubble) levels. Buying something for 1.2mil 那 still needs 200k in renovations sounds 至 tally 疯.
    希望随着影子库存的释放,价格将下降到“normal”.

    • 我们不再喝那些酒了

      阅读您的帖子后,说明您’我一直在看这个博客,我’ve gotta ask…如果您认为洛杉矶的住房是一个泡沫,那么价格就是“insane”,您为什么会出于希望释放影子库存而选择搬到洛杉矶寻求购买房屋的原因,以及“normal”价格?为什么要加入这么多沮丧的行列“高薪专业人士”谁经常在这个博客上发布 …那些已经保存,希望并在数年后仍然沉重负担的人们,有些愤怒和痛苦。老实说,没有判断力,祝你好运。

      • 我们之所以搬到洛杉矶,是因为我们的工作将我们带到了那里。
        THe question is 出租 vs. buy. If, in fact, the bubble is not fully deflated i can easily wait.

      • 布兰克芬勋爵

        Good point. Many 人 stick it out here because they have family in the area and want 至 stay close 至 them. I would not recommend anybody moving out here unless they have one hell of a high paid job lined up.

        我一直在工作。您拥有来自密歇根州,普渡大学等拥有工程学硕士学位的这些超级聪明的孩子,他们来到了洛杉矶,“start a life.” 他们 usually stick around for about 5 years and then come 至 the conclusion 那 if they want 至 get married, start a family and buy a house…it’s virtually impossible 至 buy in a decent area anywhere close 至 work. Many end up moving back 至 the Midwest, 那’s how it goes here!

      • 租金买入是美联储的新方针,也是阻止现实进入的下一个绊脚石。伯纳克斯的观察没有洪水泛滥。
        截至4月5日,美联储发表了一项声明,将其转化为真实性时,会发生以下情况。
        美联储(FED)我们知道,您所有的私人银行仍在追索大量不良贷款和CDO’s 那 would sink you if you had 至 declare them at mark 至 market. So in the spirit of extended and pretend, we will let you “rent”最多可以使用十年,而且,令人惊讶的是,不必算账本上的损失。感谢您的阅读,无所不能,更多关于您的业务。
        因此,您将看到FHA / VA / Fannie / Freddie所带的一堆东西,而不是房屋泛滥。
        Private Loans will hide out for up 至 10 more years in 出租al limbo land. 的high end will be off market for an extended period of time.
        的market in California is closed off 至 working middle class for an indeterminate period of time.

        如果您想在洛杉矶,SF或OC拥有一所好房子,请创建一家物业管理公司,“incentivize”银行的中层管理人员雇用您“rent” the off market homes. Collect hefty fees, do minimal work on maintenance. Do a lot of work on your favorite 出租al, “incentivize” the bank manager again 至 出租 it 至 a “good firned’s LLC”你知道的,把房子从“good Friend LLC” at a “fair price”像国王一样生活了10年,得到报酬来维修维京炉,按摩浴缸,石灰华地板等。

        如果我在不到一分钟的时间内就想到了这一点,那么Realtard行业中有多少垃圾袋已经在计划这样的骗局。

        Did I forget 至 mention 那 the FED gave their blessing 至 Banks 至 ignore repair and maintenance expense in determining the CAP rate on the 出租als. Giant 钱 hole of 舞弊 waiting 至 happen. This can keep everyone in Realtard Corp funded for a decade. And no one has 至 record one penny of losses.

        计算风险.com上的文章
        http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/federal-reserve-issues-statement-on.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

    • 布兰克芬勋爵

      麦克风, LA real estate would make a great case study in business/finance school. You have few 可取的 pockets where there is intense competion 至 say you are a “homeowner.”就像你说的,你有两个高薪的专业收入…that’s pretty 正常 out here for the younger crowd 那 wants 至 live in these areas. Then add in 人 who have rich parents, inherit houses, have successful small businesses or are foreigners who come here with their suitcases full of 钱 .

      至于等待银行释放影子库存,以便价格下降…you have lots of company there! Even on this blog I still read about 人 waiting for prices 至 come down 至 they can buy in a prime area with their 150K income, ain’t gonna happen man! 那 is chump 更改 around here, you’ll be competing with 人 making 2x or 3x 那 much.

      祝您好运,洛杉矶房地产将真正吸引外来人士的眼球。

      • Lord B. Thanks for your insight.. but we are making 2 or 3x 那 much..
        也许我只需要重新考虑我需要扩展多少。.我想在如此低的利率下,我们可以负担得起更多,而我认为是可能的。
        我们从波士顿出发,那里的可再生能源价格也很高,所以’这不是很大的震撼,但是我希望能得到更多的钱:)。

      • 真正睁大眼睛,或者真正发疯。当洛杉矶的生活质量达到全国最高水平时,这是一回事。现在要提起洛杉矶到全国其他地方和不良学校,高犯罪率,地狱般的交通拥堵以及生活质量不断下降的情况。我经常到美国和海外旅行。我遇到了美国和世界各地的美国人,他们可以远程通勤高质量的生活。相比之下,与南加州的情况相比,这只是一个遗憾。
        It seems 至 me we have a new government/corporate shell game. Holding back inventory and creating huge artificial shortages. It is all 至 transfer YOUR 钱 至 the banks. In other words, another Ponzi scheme. People should be up in arms over this new scam.The big banks should have been nationalized in 2008 and they should be now. 的top five banks are completely insolvent and it is only through bribery 那 the government lets them getaway with this latest 舞弊 .

      • 麦克风,

        No offense, but if you make 3 times $150,000 and you do not know 那 when interest are low is the worst time 至 buy then the US is a lot more screwed up 那 I ever imagined.

      • 的traffic congestion is going 至 get worse. 他们 want 至 build a football stadium 那 will make the freeways with the worst traffic in America worse. L.A. is going 至 become entirely unnavigable if 那 happens. 的city is already barely livable, but it’会变得更糟。用抵押球和锁链终身奉献的绝佳场所。

    • 采纳我的建议,迈克,首先在您工作附近的理想社区中找到租金。看看领土,不要’急于将超过20万美元的首付用于物业,您稍后会后悔。洛杉矶县市正在裁员,减少了对国防承包商和其他主要联邦政府资助公司的联邦支出,将造成高价值工作减少和失业率上升的局面。这最终将进一步侵蚀房地产的价值和升值。耐心一点,来自芝加哥,几年前,我学到了关于在CA购买房地产的课程。请记住,W.LA地区几乎每天都是大堵车。祝好运!

      • 谢谢,唐。
        THis is exactly the plan right now. We will 出租 for at least 6 months while we look around and see where we want 至 be, and where the market is going 至 go.
        的only reason I was thinking about buying early was favorable interest rate environment. However, with the recent payroll data, i think QE3 is in the cards.

  • 小天狼星·布莱克

    Great job Dr. HB, and you saw this coming years ago. You 至 ld us 那 the banks could not hold back the flood of 止赎 indefinitely and you were right.

    一个问题:你说“over 所有MLS库存的50% is now composed of 卖空 showing 那 banks are now willing 至 sell homes for less than the original mortgage balance.” 的banks are willing, or the homebuyers are? Isn’t it the homebuyer 那 has 至 pony up cash 至 sell if the home is under water? If someone can fill in this gap in my knowledge I’d appreciate it.

    • 我认为房主和抵押持有人必须在同一页上才能进行卖空交易。如果房主/居住者不想离开,那么抵押权持有人实际上只是以折扣价出售抵押贷款,那么抵押权的新持有人将不得不取消赎回权才能将房屋所有者带出房屋。但是抵押贷款持有人不必打折出售,他们可以取消抵押贷款的拖欠。因此,您可以看到卖空需要抵押贷款持有人和房屋所有者都希望卖空起作用。

  • 有关房地产销售数量的问题

    齐洛 和Redfin指出何时将物业作为出售转让给银行[例如:在该日期已售出,“该房屋已被取消抵押并由银行拥有。”]

    问题:这些销售是否包含在统计中或从统计中排除(这么多的房屋在当月售出)?

    • Redfin和Zillow上报告的销售信息并不总是与该县的记录相关。一些清单显示的销售额实际上是第一个票据持有人赢得的回购拍卖价值。我研究了一个卖空清单,该清单显示出从未在该县记录的卖空清单,以某种方式神奇地重新列出了该清单,但仍然显示出一个价格和销售日期,而实际上在县评估官办公室转移所有权从未发生过。该县的所有权显示为F’d买方直接向银行回购。没有持刀者买过这个地方,但是雷德芬说确实发生了。你要相信谁?

  • We have had a shortage of inventory for 4 years in my area and been dealing with multiple offer scenarios almost constantly since the market started 至 correct itself. People who wisely decided 至 sit out this mess have been waiting a very long time 至 buy a house, and I think 那 is part of the bidding madness we see here —等待了8年的人买了房子,然后又不得不找了一年的人开始表现得有些疯狂。

    我看到的另一件事是非常合格的购买者(现金)和不合格的购买者(下降1%并挤进房屋),介于中间的10%或20%下降且收入稳定的购买者并不多。这些人中有很多人卖空或丧失抵押品赎回权,现在被筛选出来。因此,在中低端市场似乎有些人为缩水, ’甚至不让我开始对公寓市场做过什么。目前购买价格低于250,000美元的人的购买力很小,或者他们只是试图廉价购买的投资者。除此之外,生活条件得到了改善的人们’不允许购买,因为此过程现在需要永远,而且他们可以’买房要花一年半的时间。这个市场没有什么接近正常的。

    在我看来,银行故意减少库存,我认为这种情况不会很快改变。他们正在维持对房地产市场的控制。为什么四年后他们会突然淹没市场?他们可能会,但是作为房地产经纪人,我会欢迎的。我觉得我现在可以自己卖掉所有那些房子—现在有很多买家。我确实认为卖空会更好,因为这会迫使他们动手,并阻止银行增加其影子库存,这对任何人都没有好处。它使房子变得可用,如果进入止赎房屋,可能会留在银行’s hands for years.

    库存短缺,他们在谈论向投资者出售大宗商品吗?为什么?还是将房利美或美国银行作为房东? C’mon. I won’t pretend 至 know all the details, but I do know if it is a bank decision (and 4 years implies a decision) it is about 钱 and control. 的shadow inventory is part of the (continued) manipulation of the real estate market.

  • DHB you are a cool drink of water in a hot dry desert. If you listen 至 the media, things are turning around and prices should be shooting up any minute now! However, slowly the lemmings and the sheeples are waking up. My husband sent me the 文章 below. It references what you have been saying for a very long time. Rich neighborhoods are riddled with 止赎 and 所有者s have been living 出租 free pushing the two year envelope.

    一定要给的东西 …。这简直是不可持续的。低级市场将始终有买家,但是谁来购买所有的McMansions?婴儿潮一代准备缩小尺寸吗?提升那些只赚一分钱的买主?新毕业生背负着学生贷款?我认为今年夏天So Cal的房地产市场将会很有趣。

    http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/rich-neighborhoods-riddled-with-foreclosures.html

  • 中端和高端市场的房价继续下跌。圣塔莫尼卡(Santa Monica)现在受到欢迎,即使有所有政府道具也是如此。在解决所有这些隐性库存之前,大多数人对真正升值的房屋失去了信心。此外,就业市场增长更加不稳​​定。疲软的手已经开始买入,因为他们厌倦了等待,而清单库存被人为压低。中端和高端市场的跌幅将进一步增加,因为实际库存仍在膨胀,而且这些沉淀物尚未像最低端的一样完全纠正。

    You can now keep abreast of everything 那 is currently selling in all areas on 的Westside of LA, by checking a rolling monthly view at Westside RE Meltdown. In addition, you can check a rolling weekly view of everything selling at Santa Monica RE Meltdown.

    知识贫乏。价格仍在下跌,不要’不要上当。纠正历史上最大的房地产泡沫,我们已经五滴眼泪。请耐心等待,因为它可能会以这种速度延长数年。

    http://Www.santamonicameltdownthe90402.blogspot.com

    http://Www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

  • 我刚出价超过某人出价5%的人出价。这是在伯班克的中端市场。我有电影行业的朋友,说没有工作的正规工人。生产即将淘汰。伯班克不再有航空航天工业。在伯班克设有办事处的雅虎正在裁员。那么司机在哪里?谁知道但是’在那!这里也有多个出价。
    银行不会丢掉一堆止赎。如果您确实尝试购买房产,则将放弃所有权利,以确保该房产不是金钱陷阱。他们将卖给将进行康复和翻转的投资者10万,将其卖给具有多个要约的市场。卖空,让我休息一下。你一定要疯了。当人们停滞不前时,这些事情永远存在,银行停滞不前。等待几年或咬大笔钱,然后知道如果您现在购买,您将损失10%或更多的投资。任何认为价格会突然下跌的人都会感到失望。这将拖延数年。

    • Interesting 那 some regular readers (yourself and Mad as Heck) are knowingly willing 至 flush ~10% of your 钱 (and/or 家庭资产) down the 至 ilet 至 buy now in a low-inventory, over-priced, unfavorable interest rate environmnent. I’我没有判断(真的!)。它’s your 钱 . It just speaks 至 the 心理学 game 那 the banks, even though legally “people”(哈哈),将永远赢得像我们这样的普通人。

    • How much am I losing on my 2200 a month 出租al? 那’等于扣除抵押贷款税后的45万住房?无论哪种方式,我都输了!还有我自己的墙面颜色吗?

  • 的one axiom 那 comes 至 mind within all of this is the adage of “不可能永远持续下去的东西赢了’t.”因此,联邦政府的银行及其支持者可以通过减少手袋中的花样供应来阻止这种不可避免的情况– but the fact remains 那 there aren’t enough qualified buyers out there 那 can take all of these forthcoming properties off their hands, and those 那 are qualified will just keep waiting for the inevitable 至 happen.

    • “Forever”是很久了仅仅定居20年左右怎么样?有点像日本那样。

      • If 那 scenario plays out then the last thing many of us will have 至 worry about is home prices – I’m old enough 至 remember the stagflation of the Carter years, and if 那 had continued for much longer the consequences for everyone would have been disasterous.

  • As long as we can exponentially grow the 债务 and hold rates at artificial target zero, perfect logic will not lead 至 the answer. Surely there is a point when the 债务 will break the dam and Manhattan will let the rest of us drown, but 那 could still be years or decades away. 的only thing 那 has 更改d is the scale of this mess. We had an artificial recovery after the S&L危机,那时我们破产了。什么’s 至 stop them now?

  • 一位评论者说有多个要约,等等。’是投资者。他们就像蝗虫成千上万的人买房。现在,他们计划将它们打包为证券,以出售给更多投资者。太疯狂了他们购买他们的房租是为了避免周转。没有人知道如何在不同位置拥有如此多的出租物业。我正在观看文图拉县和圣地亚哥的多个物业。短短几天之内,它们几乎全部‘contingent’ as opposed 至 ‘active’。一位拥有32年经验的当地可再生能源代理商表示,他们正在竞标一些物业。我希望随着更多的产品进入市场,我可以竞争为我的狗和我买一点地方。但是他们支付现金,所以银行选择它们,以便他们可以快速结账。

    到目前为止,我还没有’t seen any comments on this.I will go back and read more 至 see. In many places the only properties left 活性 are so bad who would buy them. 这正在发生 in many places at once. How did they all decide 至 do this at the same time?

    任何答案都将受到欢迎。

    我也承认这可能不会影响上面的图形,但似乎是DEMAND上升了,供应几乎被删除了

  • 嗨,大家好。
    在别针上。 3年后,只有一个值得做的报价(被撤销的REO配上44,000加仑游泳池/ freakin海洋/成本为$$$$$$),我们提出了一个标准销售的报价。我们没有’吧,希望我们能在中间相遇。 3年后,这所房子尖叫回家。它’是我们的最后家,’re paying cash. I’告诉你,房屋的价格简直荒唐可笑,大多数房屋状况不佳且陈旧。这是一颗宝石。我们’我会看看情况如何。天哪’s the chocolate?

  • Why does Carter get blamed for stagflation? Nixon defaulted on Bretton Woods because Johnson had a war and massive entitlement programs and implemented wage and price freezes. Ford had whip 通货膨胀 now buttons. Reagan gets all this credit for being a financial wizard when all he did was crank up the 打印ing presses. Eisenhower tried 至 warn us, but nobody listened, and what good would it have done anyway. This is our inheritance, might as well make the most of it. 我不’t live in CA anymore, and you know what? It’s possible 至 live in other states and visit once in a while.

    • 我绝不将卡特的经济行为归咎于卡特– it was used merely as a reference point for those of a certain age. Nixon with his 疯 price freezes and the appointment of Connolly as Treasurer Sec. certainly didn’为了解决这种情况,卡特在任期的尾声做了一件聪明的事–他带来了沃尔克。

  • 我们不再喝那些酒了

    他们’re baaaaaack…..tv屋脚蹼,戏剧!他从不亏钱!旧的一切又都是新的!扣好乡亲,打赌’这次会更有趣!

    http://www.aetv.com/flipped-off/

    • 我相信,饮料。
      的biggest bubble of all is human ignorance. Many have no idea and are finding ways 至 get 那 3.5 down and buy their way into housing bondage. Maybe when Iran starts launching nukes we can hide under our granite counter 至 ps…

      • 仅供参考,花岗岩台面会发出低水平的放射性粒子。装满大理石和花岗岩台面的容器在港口掀起了肮脏的炸弹探测器。

        恭喜,您已经使情况变得更糟,恭喜,您现在已晋升为政府决策职位。

  • 谢谢HB博士以及所有其他关注重点的人。一世’已经放弃了常规媒体,这似乎更重要“photos del dia”然后做一些严肃的新闻工作。我不’认为能力甚至将不存在。即使是NPR,也只能从房地产经纪人那边进行采访。’越来越好。是什么“getting better” really mean? 我不’t know and 我不’t care. “The Right”一如既往地生活在事实不存在的幻想中’申请,为他们感到抱歉,但是’是他们的问题。太糟糕了,它必须影响我们尝试生活在1 + 1 = 2的世界中。

    那里有太多的损害,太多的坏变量,太多的白痴,太多的欺诈,并且做正确的事情的意愿不足。

    We’ll be laying low, 出租ing the same appartment in Hollywood going on nine years now, there is no other option. We’re working 人, HHI $120k with a baby.

    加入银行转帐日!我做到了,去了Alliant。

  • 我不清楚为什么所有现金购买者都不欢迎,即使他们是投资者,也有人可以解释一下(也许对我来说是愚蠢的)吗?之前有人提到伯班克,并问为什么会有这样的需求。我的回答是,由于伯班克(Burbank)靠近洛杉矶地区,良好的社区和邻近机场,因此非常吸引人,因此您既有本地买家也有国际买家想在那儿购物。我自己是学生贷款的一部分,我还需要一段时间才能还清我的贷款,并且我可以开始节省首付款。鉴于我在旧金山湾区的六位数收入加上偿还的学生贷款债务没有’我没有能力购买优质住房,’m将我的网站设置为不在CA范围内,并计划进行迁移。我发现低住房,高收入,无债务退休的想法非常诱人,即使天气转冷和偶尔出现龙卷风警告也是如此。

  • 我想我们’re seeing a “dead cat bounce” in the low cost areas. Think parts of AZ and Florida. People have memories of 2007 and they think the prices are great. There is also the 钱 from the $300K a year gang and those with 钱 who sold in the mid oughts like us. We bought a 229K home in the Inland empire we are 出租ing out and it is wonderfully cash flow positive so 那 can be done – carefully.
    It’当我们看到这些狂潮时很难忍耐,但宏观经济趋势却没有’t support 至 day’长期的价格。在低洼地区仔细购买或练习耐心。
    “上帝赐予我耐心,我现在就想要!”

    芬酯

    • I feel anything east of the 215 is priced properly, and take 那 literally. From San Berdoo ($75k homes) 至 Dallas and everything in between. Seems only parts of CA have this RE bubble wanna-be high price fantasy.

  • 今日CNN Money的一篇文章指出,水下有1000万,未付款有450万。是这些调整还是只是有分歧?文章–money.cnn.com/2012/01/13/pf/ows_goodman_best_money_moves.moneymag/index.htm

    • 从我的研究和调查中,我相信,自1999年对银行法进行修改以允许存托银行和经纪行起同等作用以来,该股权剥离庞氏骗局中涉及了6,200万按揭,该计划为银行家带来了数万亿美元的收益。由于最大的投资中的未来股权被盗,借款人一文不名。然后,为了加重侮辱的伤害,税务寻呼机被骗去挽救那些过于扭曲而无法倒闭的银行,并且为了确保它们永远不会被抓住,银行只是将他们的律师安装在美国总检察长的职位上,即埃里克·霍尔德及其帮助他们创建MERS和其他机制来打扰我们国家的其他Atty,即美国司法部Lanny Breuer刑事部门负责人。因此,实际上,有6200万抵押贷款是受股权剥离庞氏骗局的影响,这使Maddoff看起来很诚实!大声笑说,市场上房屋短缺是一种欺诈行为。首先是骗我们的骗子!我们必须要求正义,而不是指责所谓的无用借款人,他实际上是股权剥离庞氏骗局的受害者,只是被用来骗他们在银行家中用别人的钱赌博!并告诉他们,他们只是获得贷款,除非贷款人从未借出他们拥有的任何东西,否则有遭受损失的风险!因此,这笔贷款是银行家的谎言,您想谈论说谎者贷款吗???不要责怪借款人!这是一项巨大的犯罪努力,其法律经过精心修改,以实现我们国家历史上最大的抢劫案。

  • I do agree with a lot of 人 那 the banks are manipulating the market by keeping 阴影 inventory off the market but 那 is only half of the story. Where I live in the central valley 48% of all homeowners are underwater. This makes it very hard 至 put your house on the market if you have 至 give the bank a $100,000.00 or more at closing. In other words 人 who would like 至 sell their homes can’负担不起。因此没有库存。

    • There are also the lawsuits 那 BofA is settling right now 那 are keeping inventory off of the market. A lot of those homeowners aren’进行付款和支付’之所以被取消抵押品赎回权,是因为他们的贷方违反了如何发行抵押的法律。他们很奇怪’预计将在某些时候支付,这些物业将投放市场。

      My guess is 那 “Obummer”将推出一些新计划,以防止这种巨大的供应进入市场并进一步削弱该行业。

  • 房利美和房地美拥有约60%的未偿还抵押贷款。这些机构现在由联邦住房金融局(FHFA)管理。 FHA控制至少10%的抵押贷款。 FHA由住房和城市发展部(HUD)管理。因此,现在所有未偿还贷款中超过70%受联邦政府控制/所有权。大银行–BOA,富国银行,大通银行-这些机构的服务人员。他们承销新的贷款,并立即出售给这些机构。他们为这些机构提供不良贷款。如今,几乎没有银行为自己的投资组合承销贷款。同时,美联储仍在从这些大型银行购买不良抵押贷款,并将其投向房利美和房地美。同时,联邦住房管理局仍在为新抵押贷款提供3.5%的首付贷款,并向借款人收取抵押贷款保险金,以防止将来发生违约。但是,联邦住房管理局立即将这笔钱花在其他方面,例如住房援助(正在制定的另一项庞氏骗局)。最重要的是,在政府的所有参与下,选举年期间的数字看起来不错–减少库存,价格上涨,竞标战,低利率,止赎房屋减少!接下来是什么?

  • 博伊西物业管理

    是!谢谢!特别是因为我们仍在遭受灌木丛的破坏。如果布什只是让银行倒闭,我们将已经全面复苏。有关示例,请参见冰岛和阿根廷。失败?有关示例,请参见欧洲和日本。

  • 博伊西物业管理

    I do agree with lots of 人 那 the banks are manipulating the market by keeping 阴影 inventory off the market .They service the bad loans for these agencies. Today, few banks underwrite loans for their own portfolio.

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