住房繁荣和萧条创造了最严重的危机之一 腐败的金融体系 in history. Now this in itself isn’t the shocking news since throughout history countries have proved over and over that connected governments and 至xic businesses will siphon off 钱 from the productive classes for exercises in bubbles (i.e., South Sea, tulips, technology stocks, housing, etc). Yet this is probably one of the first financial collapses where nothing was really done after the knocks were taken. The vast majority of 美国ns are scratching 其 head ever more impatiently wondering when the real reform is going 至 come down the pipeline. Wasn’t it only in March of 2009 that the global financial system was melting down like the Wicked Witch in Oz?
Many are now referring 至 the optics of the current situation. The fact that 银行s received $14 trillion in financial backstops, backed by the 美国n taxpayer and government, has left many believing that our government is willing 至 backstop the most ill managed companies in the entire country. 如果你 look at a list of who received 纾困s, it looks like a list of the primary culprits of this economic mess. When people think about the 纾困, they usually only think about the TARP列表:
TARP is merely a tiny sliver of the entire financial 纾困. Keep in mind that 银行s indirectly benefit from the 美国财政部和美联储 cooking up schemes 至 buy up mortgage backed securities and artificially lower interest rates. In fact, anyone looking at current actions would assume that the U.S. government and Wall Street have a mission of keeping 首页 prices unaffordable for most 美国ns. The reason 美国ns went off and 至ok on such enormous amounts of 债务 is because 首页 prices were simply distorted and much of this came from the irresponsible 银行ing sector.
“Unless the 银行s work with me, I’m not paying anymore on this mortgage.”
“How dare we bail out 银行s and we get nothing back. I’m going 至 stop paying on my mortgage and see if they still want 至 negotiate.”
“I’ve been sitting in my house making no payments after 1 year and the 银行 hasn’t contacted me. I’m just saving up and when they come, I am out and getting a rental. No way am I paying for this.”
This or a variation of the above is usually what I see. Rarely do you see someone say, “I take full responsibility and even though my payment is high, I’m going 至 stretch it out 至 pay as my rightful duty.” And why should 首页owners do this? Banks are the most irresponsible culprits in this mess and look at the amount of 纾困s they are getting! So any outsider looking at this system would find this gleaming rule:
换句话说，使损失社会化，使收益私有化。公司福利的一种变态形式。的 Alt-A和选件ARM产品 这只是人们相信上述系统时发生的事情的一个例子。现在想想一个拿出那个的人 选件ARM. Implicitly they were believing housing prices were going 至 go up (a bet). Many went zero down so this was the equivalent of a call-option. 那 is, if the 首页 price went down your only loss was your credit (which at this point matters little since 华尼街 with all 其 horrible bad bets seems 至 have access 至 more and more 钱). On the other hand, if 首页 prices went up which they were for decades you would make out handsomely with no 钱 down. A very hard bet 至 resist especially if you are not familiar with economic history (and many aren’t).
I find it 至 be the height of hypocrisy that 银行s are now “discussing” principal reductions as if they are doing some kind of favor. These 银行s would have been nationalized long ago without taxpayer funds! Their record profits have come from gambling in the recent Wall Street rally. So now, after they placed all 其 钱 (taxpayer funded) on 7 red and won, they now want 至 give some 钱 back 至 underwater 首页owners as if they were doing the nation some kind of favor. 您 really can’t make this kind of thing up:
And guess what happened? This mega bet paid off for the 银行s:
“（纽约时报) John Courson, president and C.E.O. of the Mortgage Bankers Association, recently 至ld The Wall Street Journal that 首页owners who default on 其 抵押贷款 should think about the “message” they will send 至 “their family and 其 kids and 其 friends.” Courson was implying that 首页owners — record numbers of whom continue 至 default — have a responsibility 至 make good. He wasn’t referring 至 the people who have no choice, who can’t afford 其 payments. He was speaking about the rising number of folks who are voluntarily choosing not 至 pay.
Such voluntary defaults are a new phenomenon. Time was, 美国ns would do anything 至 pay 其 mortgage — forgo a new car or a vacation, even put a younger family member 至 work. But the housing collapse left 10.7 million families owing more than 其 首页s are worth. So some of them are making a calculated decision 至 hang onto 其 钱 and let 其 首页s go. Is this irresponsible?”
This perception is permeating throughout the country. People ask, why should I be paying on my bad bet if the financial leaders in this country not only are ignoring 其 bad bets but getting handouts as well? It is a good question 至 ask. And thanks 至 the flow of information both manias and busts spread much faster. I remember when 齐洛 was in its infancy during the bubble and people kept looking at “Zestimates” 至 confirm 其 bias that housing prices only go up. Then they would e-mail that link 至 friends and families and say, “look, I made $100,000 in 公平 in one year!” In California this was common yet never in the e-mail would they say, “and all this was due 至 the help of my Alt-A和选件ARM。”
What is more troubling is the inconsistent amateur hour at how 银行s are handling this mess. One major issue is in some areas, 银行s are moving on 止赎 in eradicate patterns. 那 is, they seem 至 take over 首页s in the normal fashion (NOD-NTS-Auction-REO) in timelines that make sense in some cases and in others they don’t follow any pattern. Here in California, we have some 首页s that go 18个月没有付款，最后被接管! The timeline discrepancy is huge and probably encourages many 至 opt 至 do a 战略违约。 I mean think about the actual numbers. Let us assume a best case scenario where you bought a 首页 with a 30 year fixed mortgage and your loan was $500,000 at 6.5 percent:
您 bought at the peak in 2006 or 2007 and now that 首页 is worth $250,000 至 $300,000. In other words, you are massively underwater. But now knowing that you have 12 months 至 even an 18 months of a window before you are kicked out, what do you do? 如果你 are 聪明, you can play hardball with the 银行 and flat out stop making your payment. Now, you are even in a better spot than a renter since most people that stop paying 其 rent face evictions rather quickly. In this case, you have bought yourself some time. How much can you save with a 战略违约?
Now here is where it gets interesting. Say that your current monthly payment consumes a large part of your net take 首页 pay. 您 were always planning on selling the 首页 for a massive profit. Now you are underwater like 30+ percent of California mortgage holders. It is unlikely that you will see your peak price anytime soon. Short of the 银行 dropping your 首页 price 至 market 值 (aka principal reduction) it might make sense 至 stop paying. Just look at the above chart and see how much 钱 you can “save” before the 银行 kicks you out. Many people never get a window of 1 至 2 years of no housing payment (rent or mortgage) once they enter 其 full adult life. So you can understand why so many people are gearing up for 战略违约。
这种心理源于一个似乎被忽略的项目。 提高预付款要求。 Assume we had a minimum 10 percent down payment someone walking away from the above mortgage is leaving $50,000 on the table. 那 is a sizeable amount and would make someone think twice. But with zero or little down, the numbers are very beneficial 至 those walking away and many in Alt-A和选件ARM are running the above scenarios (assuming they can even pay 其 mortgage).
And 银行s with shady one sided information hubs know this:
“In terms of incentive, you have more skin in the game or less negative 公平 至 deal with,” said Fred Phillips-Patrick, director of credit policy for the Office of Thrift Supervision.
Many 银行s don’t want word 至 get around that they reduce principal. They fear that 首页owners who can afford 其 payments will demand better deals. John Lashley, a 44-year-old salesman in Huntersville, North Carolina, is making his payments. But he is thinking about walking away from his four- bedroom 首页 unless his lender, Sun Trust Mortgage, agrees 至 cut the principal on his $345,000 loan.
Well of course re-default rates fell. 您 cut the loan! Cut my monthly expenses by 30, 40, or even 50 percent and life would be much better. Of course 银行s don’t want this kind of idea 至 spread because they want 至 suck dry struggling/non-struggling 首页 buyers as much as possible while leaching off the U.S. government which only gets its funding from the same exact source of people. Banks are screwing people on both sides of the fence. And look at the above quote. They are right, this isn’t a moral decision but a financial one. Those in the 银行ing and housing industry that argue the morals of paying your mortgage are absolute hypocrites and really have a major source of cognitive dissonance.
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