住房繁荣和萧条创造了最严重的危机之一 腐败的金融体系 in history.  Now this in itself isn’t the shocking news since throughout history countries have proved over and over that connected governments and 至xic businesses will siphon off 钱 from the productive classes for exercises in bubbles (i.e., South Sea, tulips, technology stocks, housing, etc).  Yet this is probably one of the first financial collapses where nothing was really done after the knocks were taken.  The vast majority of 美国ns are scratching 其 head ever more impatiently wondering when the real reform is going 至 come down the pipeline.  Wasn’t it only in March of 2009 that the global financial system was melting down like the Wicked Witch in Oz?

Many are now referring 至 the optics of the current situation.  The fact that 银行s received $14 trillion in financial backstops, backed by the 美国n taxpayer and government, has left many believing that our government is willing 至 backstop the most ill managed companies in the entire country.  如果你 look at a list of who received 纾困s, it looks like a list of the primary culprits of this economic mess.  When people think about the 纾困, they usually only think about the TARP列表:

TARP is merely a tiny sliver of the entire financial 纾困.  Keep in mind that 银行s indirectly benefit from the 美国财政部和美联储 cooking up schemes 至 buy up mortgage backed securities and artificially lower interest rates.  In fact, anyone looking at current actions would assume that the U.S. government and Wall Street have a mission of keeping 首页 prices unaffordable for most 美国ns.  The reason 美国ns went off and 至ok on such enormous amounts of 债务 is because 首页 prices were simply distorted and much of this came from the irresponsible 银行ing sector.

在过去,这种过大的风险受到那些使泡沫消灭的人的惩罚。市场以某种脱节的方式将多余的部分消灭。但是,在这种情况下,那些负责任的人实际上已经变得更大,并渗透到政策制定的方式中。这就像您使您的Geo Metro坠毁并获得雷克萨斯作为替代品一样。雷克萨斯崩溃,谁知道,你可能会得到一辆法拉利。当前市场上的支付保护保险方式很少。


“Unless the 银行s work with me, I’m not paying anymore on this mortgage.”

“How dare we bail out 银行s and we get nothing back.  I’m going 至 stop paying on my mortgage and see if they still want 至 negotiate.”

“I’ve been sitting in my house making no payments after 1 year and the 银行 hasn’t contacted me.  I’m just saving up and when they come, I am out and getting a rental.  No way am I paying for this.”

This or a variation of the above is usually what I see.  Rarely do you see someone say, “I take full responsibility and even though my payment is high, I’m going 至 stretch it out 至 pay as my rightful duty.”  And why should 首页owners do this?  Banks are the most irresponsible culprits in this mess and look at the amount of 纾困s they are getting!  So any outsider looking at this system would find this gleaming rule:


换句话说,使损失社会化,使收益私有化。公司福利的一种变态形式。的 Alt-A和选件ARM产品 这只是人们相信上述系统时发生的事情的一个例子。现在想想一个拿出那个的人 选件ARM.  Implicitly they were believing housing prices were going 至 go up (a bet).  Many went zero down so this was the equivalent of a call-option.  那 is, if the 首页 price went down your only loss was your credit (which at this point matters little since 华尼街 with all 其 horrible bad bets seems 至 have access 至 more and more 钱).  On the other hand, if 首页 prices went up which they were for decades you would make out handsomely with no 钱 down.  A very hard bet 至 resist especially if you are not familiar with economic history (and many aren’t).


I find it 至 be the height of hypocrisy that 银行s are now “discussing” principal reductions as if they are doing some kind of favor.  These 银行s would have been nationalized long ago without taxpayer funds!  Their record profits have come from gambling in the recent Wall Street rally.  So now, after they placed all 其 钱 (taxpayer funded) on 7 red and won, they now want 至 give some 钱 back 至 underwater 首页owners as if they were doing the nation some kind of favor.  您 really can’t make this kind of thing up:

And guess what happened?  This mega bet paid off for the 银行s:


“(纽约时报) John Courson, president and C.E.O. of the Mortgage Bankers Association, recently 至ld The Wall Street Journal that 首页owners who default on 其 抵押贷款 should think about the “message” they will send 至 “their family and 其 kids and 其 friends.” Courson was implying that 首页owners — record numbers of whom continue 至 default — have a responsibility 至 make good. He wasn’t referring 至 the people who have no choice, who can’t afford 其 payments. He was speaking about the rising number of folks who are voluntarily choosing not 至 pay.

Such voluntary defaults are a new phenomenon. Time was, 美国ns would do anything 至 pay 其 mortgage — forgo a new car or a vacation, even put a younger family member 至 work. But the housing collapse left 10.7 million families owing more than 其 首页s are worth. So some of them are making a calculated decision 至 hang onto 其 钱 and let 其 首页s go. Is this irresponsible?”

This perception is permeating throughout the country.  People ask, why should I be paying on my bad bet if the financial leaders in this country not only are ignoring 其 bad bets but getting handouts as well?  It is a good question 至 ask.  And thanks 至 the flow of information both manias and busts spread much faster.  I remember when 齐洛 was in its infancy during the bubble and people kept looking at “Zestimates” 至 confirm 其 bias that housing prices only go up.  Then they would e-mail that link 至 friends and families and say, “look, I made $100,000 in 公平 in one year!”  In California this was common yet never in the e-mail would they say, “and all this was due 至 the help of my Alt-A和选件ARM。”

What is more troubling is the inconsistent amateur hour at how 银行s are handling this mess.  One major issue is in some areas, 银行s are moving on 止赎 in eradicate patterns.  那 is, they seem 至 take over 首页s in the normal fashion (NOD-NTS-Auction-REO) in timelines that make sense in some cases and in others they don’t follow any pattern.  Here in California, we have some 首页s that go 18个月没有付款,最后被接管!  The timeline discrepancy is huge and probably encourages many 至 opt 至 do a 战略违约。  I mean think about the actual numbers.  Let us assume a best case scenario where you bought a 首页 with a 30 year fixed mortgage and your loan was $500,000 at 6.5 percent:


您 bought at the peak in 2006 or 2007 and now that 首页 is worth $250,000 至 $300,000.  In other words, you are massively underwater.  But now knowing that you have 12 months 至 even an 18 months of a window before you are kicked out, what do you do?  如果你 are 聪明, you can play hardball with the 银行 and flat out stop making your payment.  Now, you are even in a better spot than a renter since most people that stop paying 其 rent face evictions rather quickly.  In this case, you have bought yourself some time.  How much can you save with a 战略违约?

Now here is where it gets interesting.  Say that your current monthly payment consumes a large part of your net take 首页 pay.  您 were always planning on selling the 首页 for a massive profit.  Now you are underwater like 30+ percent of California mortgage holders.  It is unlikely that you will see your peak price anytime soon.  Short of the 银行 dropping your 首页 price 至 market 值 (aka principal reduction) it might make sense 至 stop paying.  Just look at the above chart and see how much 钱 you can “save” before the 银行 kicks you out.  Many people never get a window of 1 至 2 years of no housing payment (rent or mortgage) once they enter 其 full adult life.  So you can understand why so many people are gearing up for 战略违约。

这种心理源于一个似乎被忽略的项目。  提高预付款要求。 Assume we had a minimum 10 percent down payment someone walking away from the above mortgage is leaving $50,000 on the table.  那 is a sizeable amount and would make someone think twice.  But with zero or little down, the numbers are very beneficial 至 those walking away and many in Alt-A和选件ARM are running the above scenarios (assuming they can even pay 其 mortgage).

And 银行s with shady one sided information hubs know this:


“In terms of incentive, you have more skin in the game or less negative 公平 至 deal with,” said Fred Phillips-Patrick, director of credit policy for the Office of Thrift Supervision.

Many 银行s don’t want word 至 get around that they reduce principal. They fear that 首页owners who can afford 其 payments will demand better deals. John Lashley, a 44-year-old salesman in Huntersville, North Carolina, is making his payments. But he is thinking about walking away from his four- bedroom 首页 unless his lender, Sun Trust Mortgage, agrees 至 cut the principal on his $345,000 loan.

隔壁的房子最近以260,000美元的价格售出,当拉什利(Lashley)可能永远都无法收回他在2007年所做的投资时,他看不到向他的房子里注钱的意义。我为什么要留在家里?”他说。 “这不是道德决定。这是一个财务决定。”

Well of course re-default rates fell.  您 cut the loan!  Cut my monthly expenses by 30, 40, or even 50 percent and life would be much better.  Of course 银行s don’t want this kind of idea 至 spread because they want 至 suck dry struggling/non-struggling 首页 buyers as much as possible while leaching off the U.S. government which only gets its funding from the same exact source of people. Banks are screwing people on both sides of the fence.  And look at the above quote.  They are right, this isn’t a moral decision but a financial one.  Those in the 银行ing and housing industry that argue the morals of paying your mortgage are absolute hypocrites and really have a major source of cognitive dissonance.




你喜欢这个职位吗?订阅Housing Bubble博士的博客 获取最新的房屋评论,分析和信息。

你喜欢这个职位吗?订阅Housing Bubble医生的博客以获取最新的住房评论,分析和信息

53个回答 至 “道德风险和策略性违约的财务心理:如何通过为不负责任的住房押注提供利益来破坏社会的经济结构。”

  • 太好了DHB大道。
    我们有一件事’在这里观察到的是债务以外还有一种货币:它’信念和信任的人类美德。自从苏美尔人以来,这些一直是基于利息的银行业务背后的真正货币。即,您可以’除非所有人都同意相信,这种带有外部刻有符号的粘土令牌的大牛实际上代表着真正的绵羊和山羊以及石油和谷物,否则它就不会有全国或整个帝国的银行体系。这种信念的操纵和发展几乎是“资本主义历史” is all about.
    我对这种经济惨败的最大担忧是:全球操纵者,收益私有化者/成本社会化者现在以一种经过心理优化的货币运作,该货币可以自动启动。他们操纵“value,” but “value”只是个人心理学与大众心理学交织在一起(在给定的时间点,某人愿意付出的代价,考虑到其他人也愿意付出的代价)。
    与此相关并在个人层面上,我和我的搭档一直在that记着,当我们创建抵押贷款交易和预算时,我们是在最大程度的传统谨慎下做到的。目前,我们很幸运没有面临默认或水下问题。我一直以为我们的房子被高估了,我竭尽全力提前偿还了我本该值的钱,这导致我让卖方减价10%。我在大涨之前就买了个小水,卖家是“motivated” as they say.
    但这意味着,尽管其他人正在寻找如何像大男孩一样玩游戏系统–just as they did with 其 crap 至xic lethal 抵押贷款 and HELOCs–we’谨慎地生活。除了真正破坏我们的生活,我们不能期望有任何游戏或救助计划。

  • The 银行s have created this mess, now it is time for the people 至 set things right.

    What would happen if everyone stopped paying 其 抵押贷款 and saved 其 钱 for down payments when the 银行s finally have no choice but 至 sell 其 止赎 for properly adjusted market rates?

  • H博士

  • I’ll also add this: My family and I gave up our 首页 in 2008 and got the 银行 至 agree 至 a 卖空 nearly a year after we moved out. At the time I felt morally obligated 至 give the 首页 至 the 银行 since we could no longer afford it. I now wish we had stayed in the 首页 and saved during that year. If we had done so, we could have kept our savings for a down payment in 2012.

  • 传讲文档!如果不是’如果我花10万美元下来,我早就走了。现在我’我只是很生气钱没了,而我’m仍然颠倒。我停止付款,并强迫大通(腐败的银行学会)的手获得了2%的贷款,为期5年,然后提高了1%,将上限限制为5%,以获得30年的摊销贷款。一世’我还*想*走路,因为我可以比自己便宜。
    Now all we need is the Police State 至 start enforcing the corrupt 银行ster laws!
    人间’够受够了,所以我希望人们再投票赞成香蕉共和党或民主党。如果您生气,请照镜子,凝视自己的眼睛,然后大声说….”F 您”.

  • And what about those who managed 至 sell 其 house at a loss 至 themselves but paid the 银行 back 其 free 钱, after paying for a massive mortgage for years and years?, with savings/money they earned through years of hard work and sacrifice?.
    这是我刚刚在澳大利亚所做的,我可以看到崩溃即将到来,但现在“mortgage reductions” are coming 至 fruition in the US, they are bound 至 happen here as well when the sht hits the fan, this is why society is joke you 做正确的事 you get screwed!, no wonder it is a mess, fractionalised 银行ing is a rort like no other.


  • 会发生什么?那些多付钱然后去的人‘deadbeat’ would be able 至 buy up the 止赎 for cash, probably outright or close 至 it. Those who were responsible mortgagees or renters would be locked out, having never had the opportunity 至 live rent-free and save like the 无心跳s did. This is insanity.

    必须有一个巨大的100%‘windfall profits tax’用这些未偿还的抵押贷款来收回这笔钱,并将不负责任的竞标失败和富裕的快速翻转失败转移到线后。他们不应该’t even be allowed 至 bid until every renter, public-housing dweller, and 首页less person has had a crack at the unsold inventory without competition from the 无心跳s. They can then go back 至 wildly overbidding each other on the remainder and go 银行rupt again without bothering the rest of us further.

  • I’我不确定债务减免法案是否仍然有效。如果没有,那么所有违约的人将获得他们未向贷方支付的金额的1099。并尝试在IRS上默认设置。

  • Any underwater 首页owner who could save 10% of the current 值 of 其 首页 in 4-5 years while 出租 a similar 首页 should stop paying. In 5 years you will own a similar 首页 至 the one you live in now, and you will owe at least 10 % LESS than what it is worth 至day. An example — you bought in 05 for 500k and owe 450-500k, the 首页 is worth 350k, you walk save 35k over 5 years and buy a similar 首页 for 330k (modest depreciation), in 5 years you will have a 295k mortgage.

  • Doc you write “这种心理源于一个似乎被忽略的项目。 提高预付款要求。 Assume we had a minimum 10 percent down payment someone walking away from the above mortgage is leaving $50,000 on the table. 那 is a sizeable amount and would make someone think twice. “

    购买价格= $ 500,000
    首付= $ 50,000
    房屋贷款= $ 450,000
    每月付款(30年/6.5%)= $ 2844 +税金/保险$ 520 = $ 3364
    Current 值 = (using an average of the numbers in the example) $275,000 (45% DROP in 值.)
    水下金额(购买–当前)= $ 225,000
    As you can see, that downpayment is already gone with the wind and is history. It will be the LAST thing 至 be recouped when and if the house ever rises in 值.
    Amount saved if stop paying and have an average of 15 months until 银行 forecloses = $50460.
    Right now they get back 其 $50,000 if they stop paying and have 15 months before the 银行 kicks them out.
    If they keep paying and have 27 years left on 其 mortgage, they will spend $921,456 more on that house.
    假设他们走开了,保留了在那15个月内要支付的$ 50,000 +,并在3或4年内购买了另一套房子,类似于他们放手的那套房子,并大致支付了这所房子的当前市价$ 275,000。他们放下了所节省的50,000美元。假设抵押贷款期限为30年/6.5%。他们的付款将为$ 1942(本金和利息$ 1422 +税金/保险$ 520。)在接下来的30年中,他们将在该房屋上再花费699,120美元。
    这几乎毫无疑问-即使首付10%。 (如果下降20%,情况不会真正改变。如果下降35-45%,可能会发生变化,但这对大多数人来说是不现实的。)
    顺便说一句,所有顽固的右翼米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)追随者即使在借款人可以付款的情况下,走开也应该没错。弗里德曼(Friedman)认为,人类的一切行为都是为了最大化经济利益而设计的,并且是“合乎逻辑的”。因此,就算是赔钱的命题,所有关于“道德义务”的东西都是他的理论所胡说。走开只是合乎逻辑的。毕竟,这是“告诉迈克尔,这只是生意。”
    And did you hear any of the Wall St nitwits pratting on about the ‘duty 至 pay’ when Morgan Stanley walked away from those office buildings in San Francisco because 其 值 had fallen and MS owed more than thy would ever be worth in decades? 那 ‘moral duty 至 pay’ seems, in Wall Sts eyes, 至 be reserved for the Main St suckers.

  • 弗雷德
    您对我们不保存它是错误的。一世’在过去的12个月中,我节省了50,000美元,但还没有偿还我的抵押贷款,但贷方仍未将我赶出去。我认为这将继续进行2-3个月,但谁知道这一点。 BOA仍然声称在任何情况下都不会削减原则。我最大的错误是没有将这笔钱投资到这种假冒的恢复(短期)上,否则我可能会有100,000美元。我没有’在过去的一年里,我只买了一件商品,为了获得礼物,我总是要礼物卡。医生是绝对正确的…如果我放下钱,我’d永不走开(我没有’放下1分钱)。当然,如果他们需要10-20%的首付,我将无法以泡沫价格购买。

  • 房地产列表中充斥夸张,不是我的最爱,但这可能是有史以来最糟糕的列表。
    转到knifecatcher.com并查找23 Castlebar Place的列表。
    清单几乎不可读,房子也很有趣。整个内部设计看起来就像游轮的内部。(请考虑“Love Boat”,大约1970年。)面向旧金山湾的前甲板的形状像一艘船的船头!

  • Dear Swiller, blame yourself not Chase. 您 signed the mortgage.

    …还是腐败的人谁强迫您购买了如此大的保修,使您确信在Jiffy Lube等时需要新的空气滤清器,等等。

    It’s not the 银行s fault (or the those who pay taxes) that you’re a moron.

  • 我同意你的看法,弗雷德,他们之所以没有首付,是因为他们可以’不省钱。他们只是花钱直到没有剩余的东西。

  • 库库门特女士

    真的很棒!我同意,如果需要预付定金来赚钱,大多数人会和/或会三思而后行。它’s really ridiculous, how over the years we would have 至 read about 首页owners on the verge of foreclosure who never put down any 钱 in the first place complaining that they bought a huge house without factoring in affordability and in return they obtain governmental assistance 至 the detriment of those who choose not gamble and are waiting for affordable housing.

  • 尼梅什·帕特尔

    Ok, that is it. I AM GOING TO FUCKING LOSE IT. I read in 彭博社 news that 银行s may decide 至 reduce the principal balance owed by 首页 债务ors so they can stay in “their” house. So in other words, the irresponsible 白痴s will benefit while those who rent, bought a 首页 they can afford and people who 还清抵押 lose out.

  • 格雷格在洛杉矶

    Doctor Housing Bubble,

    阿门! ! !

    When one examins all the participants of this fiasco from the realitors, borrowers, lenders 至 the politicians what one notices through-out all these groups is sleeze. And in true Liberal form many of them get on 其 high horse and cry “vicitm”. Then stick 其 hand out for 钱.

    I think everyne here knows the answer. I do and it is not that difficult. It is the 金en rule that has existed in western culture forever; With notions of self-sufficiency, honor, managing your risks, and staying within your means. 保守和传统价值观始终拥护着这些理想,如果一个人生存,借以并统治它们,那么他们可以't go wrong.
    保守主义者了解人性的核心,并知道无论我们世界发生什么变化,人性都't change.
    The same straying has happened in the 值s and attitudes in country. Now many just want 至 claim the coveted liberal "Victim" status.

    这是我两周前在新年晚会上遇到的一个人的例子,他在照顾自己方面做得很好:他们买了2000平方英尺。 2006年在加利福尼亚州兰开斯特市的房屋。(该区域已被划拨,我毫不怀疑价值的50%消失了。)他们没有住在其中,而是出租房屋,并为他们自己。他们没有进行贷款修改,没有做空交易,也没有违约。他们承受着很大的财务压力,要支付抵押贷款减去房租,但他们这样做是在进行,并不要求任何人提供任何援助。我告诉这对夫妇,我向他们致敬,并说我尊重他们的决心。

  • 萨宾·费加罗

    再次伟大的写作。您’很好地表达了我的一些想法’我也有。华尔街已经提升了自己的神灵地位,甚至声称自己是“doing God’s work”。你只是要相信。他们所使用的战术与任何时代以来的统治宗教一样–为群众的运动和娱乐而流血。
    We’都变成异端,我’m afraid. We don’不要将华尔街视为道路,真理与光明。总统已移交给GS电传员。
    我想起了&P 666是对金色野兽的最后投降。我们已将牺牲献给了从地狱之门布罗德街85号接管的众多恶魔。不要赞美CNBC的智慧只是萨赫宗教。

  • 萨宾·费加罗

    正如Emmit Smith所说,豹子可以’t change his stripes. I bet a lot are rationalizing that they will start saving that 钱 soon, while dropping two bills on dinner and bragging about 其 1080p 240 Hz Blu-ray 首页 theater or blow it in Vegas. But some might pull out the granite countertop and sell it on craigz list, stash the unpaid mortgage and drop it in 其 钱 market account a pull a hefty 0.08%/year.

  • 罗恩·阿吉拉尔

    我们都可以哭泣,互相指责…等等等等等等。我们是只为自己担心的人。该死的人总会把事情搞砸了。从现在起的500年里,没有人会关心,因为我们生活中还有其他非常现实的问题。大家,请做您想做的事情,因为那将一直如此。我们想知道为什么我们没有与其他无知的人接触,因为当他们到达地球100光年以内时,他们转身说:”我们将在约500年的时间里摇摆以检查智慧的生活…not going 至 happen.

  • 评论者Nimesh Patel

    Ok, that is it. I AM GOING TO FUCKING LOSE IT. I read in 彭博社 news that 银行s may decide 至 reduce the principal balance owed by 首页 债务ors so they can stay in “their” house. So in other words, the irresponsible 白痴s will benefit while those who rent, bought a 首页 they can afford and people who 还清抵押 lose out.



    (1)“the irresponsible 白痴s” – what does your attitutude about those who overpaid at bubble prices have 至 do with the current 值 of the property? (Must get lonely being so sanctimoniously nasty all the time.)

    (2) while those who rent, bought a 首页 they can afford and people who 还清抵押 lose out.

    为什么租房的人‘losing out’ if the 银行s are forced 至 reduce 其 book 值 on a property 至 current 值 through rewriting a loan and reducing principal? Same result as if the property went through foreclosure – the 银行 has in its records a lower 值 for properties in that neighborhood. Prices STILL end up lower.
    为什么那些能够以泡沫价格负担那套房子30年固定抵押贷款的人‘losing out’? They will LOSE on the 值 of 其 首页 no matter what since they paid an inflated and ridiculous price because they didn’t弄清楚它是膨胀的。不’无论新价值是通过评估将本金减记为当前价值还是通过止赎房屋出售,都可以改变隔壁房屋的价值结果。无论哪种情况,隔壁房屋的价值都会下降,而房屋的价值却会下降。仅仅因为他们有能力负担泡沫价格行的抵押贷款,’t mean they didn’当他们以虚高的价格购买而又不为支付泡沫价格而愚蠢时,就为那所房子多付了钱–现在,如果价格跌落到足够的程度,那么他们走开是合乎逻辑的。
    为什么那些人‘还清抵押’被淘汰出局?您不能认真地宣称那里到处都是2000-2007年间以泡沫价格买下并还清抵押贷款的人!大声笑!!!!!究竟有多少家庭能够在9、7、5或3年内购买和还清全部抵押? !如果有人在1977年购回,以便在2007年还清30年的抵押贷款,那么他们本来应该还清1977年的价格– not 2005 prices –那有什么关系呢? 2000年至2007年的价格被严重夸大,与收入的现实脱节,所有“equity”是天空幻觉中从未真正存在的馅饼’直到他们卖掉这个地方才存在。)
    I’我从那些大吼大叫的人身上读到很多抱怨,仇恨和斗气“Me me me –我想要我,我想要街上的其他人…….kick ’他们出来,惩罚他们,抬起头来” I can assure you all that even if everyone who overpaid during the bubble were kicked out of 其 首页s so that you could buy the house at a lower price, there would be more houses than you all could possibly buy up. All of this is childish and greedy as those who thought they could make 钱 out of nothing and used an 选件ARM 至 buy a property in the hope that it would increase in price and they could sell.

  • 好帮派。我们中的一些人是自雇人员,即使我们要支付每月超过3000美元的颠倒费用(425,000美元,最近由县税务评估师重新评估为277,000美元),也无法获得融资或贷款修改。向我解释为什么我们不能获得减免的贷款,因为我们没有资格获得减少的付款,而我们有资格获得当前的更高支付。银行只会帮助那些不负责任,不按时支付或根本不付钱的人,并且可以要求一些困难。当我们的付款调整后,我们出去了,每个人都有第二份工作。当每个人都在谈论房屋时,我们仍然住在我们的房屋中“home”。这是我们抚养孩子和孙子的地方,以我们的所有权为荣,割草,油漆等。这是我们拥有使当地社区受益的企业的地方。这是我们实践信仰的地方。在这里,我们通过慈善工作帮助真正需要帮助的人。这是我们的家!这不是一项冷淡的金融投资,我们需要弄清楚如何在我们发放贷款时摆脱协议约定的付款义务。顺便说一句,成为一个在你的环境中没有发言权的房客,可以’为您的孩子们把卧室涂成蓝色,在租约的每一个周年纪念日都希望增加租金,永远不要,我的意思是永远不要向业主要求修理,业主妹妹想要房子没有安全保障,现在您每12岁就搬家一次。 18个月(搬迁整个家庭的成本很高),更不用说您家人的连续性了。那’s how renters live and once you have owned your own 首页 it is an entirely diffrent experience.

  • 很大一部分购买者永远不会鼓吹纪律来节省甚至10%的费用。这些人将被淘汰出局。没有所有的失败者’节省了最低的首付(更不用说20%)了,减去了所有异国欺诈性的庞氏骗局,这些计划是为了让那些失败者可以不用首付就买房的,房屋泡沫不会’不会发生的程度。无首付,财务混乱,政治操纵以及美联储充当华盛顿特区的延伸,这一切共同导致了这场灾难。

    我不’认为您需要很多或有风度的道德操守,才能根据实际可行的自我利益建立财务结构;但必须包括愚蠢和冒险行为的后果。如果您在破产时可以将公司拖入税收低谷,那么我说,“bet the farm,” you can’t lose.

    根据我认为是美国金融和政治体系实际运作方式的明确证据,除我自己和我的亲密朋友和家人之外,我不再对任何人承担任何义务,我建议其他人明智地做同样的事情。我会签署任何东西,说什么,做任何事情来玩系统并取得成功,而我不会’不管长期后果如何。如果我知道自己什么都买不起房子,可以免费住18个月,省下我的钱,然后用它以不到200k的价格在路上购买另一所房子,没有人会为此入狱,然后一世’我将认真思考我在社会上所做的一切,以期成为我的一员。要么这种共谋骗局都以非常接近革命的方式结束,那就是彻底打击残酷行径,银行家和政治罪犯,将其财产扣押,然后送进监狱,或者我’我将为诚实的人制定一套新的规则,以便在坡道用完之前将口鼻部放入槽中。一世’我已经在桅杆中点了一半的黑旗,一旦它飞了,我’m going whole hog.


  • 尼克·汉德尔

    I know one person who has not been paying her full mortgage for over 2 years. She makes partial payments every few months. This gives the 银行 an excuse not 至 evict her. It seems 至 me that some 银行s will look for any excuse not 至 evict people.

  • “Those who were responsible mortgagees or renters would be locked out, having never had the opportunity 至 live rent-free and save like the 无心跳s did.”


    哦确定’容易保存的时候’支付租金或抵押贷款。但是,当您不得不支付生活必需品并节省下来时,需要一点纪律(加上,顺其自然,再加上SoCal STILL中的住房费用),还需要一笔高收入,才能节省您的生活费用。体面的首付)。

    But why not just live rent free for a year? Look at least be consistent, become a radical, overturn the whole economic system if you want, abolish property, make everyone a squatter with renters in open revolt against 其 landlords. I mean if that’在政治上可以使你处境良好….

    但是不要’t preach the glory of your precious double standard where you live rent free and renters pay a monthly check for a roof over 其 heads every month. And don’当您自己免费生活了数年的房租时,有一天您会成为房东,成为伪君子(我不’意思是在木乃伊之家,我的意思是在您自己的地方)。

  • How many here have written 至 其 congressional reps or senators 至 complain about the 纾困? How many here vote and if you do, vote for the same politician? To make matters worse, FHA is only requiring a 3.5% down payment.

    I wonder how long the 银行s can extend and pretend with the massive 影子库存 growing daily?

  • 哇–感谢您确认我’我是双输家。由于工作原因不得不搬家,但我们可以出租房子,因为我们可以’卖。价格从高峰下降了66%,我们在2002年开始购买,当时价格开始上涨。我们支付抵押贷款,但由于我们赚了太多,因此无法获得税收减免。我们不’购买时不会感到自在,因为我们觉得自己搬到的地方买不起,而且价格过高。我们’re 出租, but we’重新启动,因为我们的房东决定不支付抵押贷款。那里’这里的租房者住房存货不多(尽管那里’大量的阴影库存),因此租金价格比一年前上涨了。太令人沮丧了!

  • Winners for people that walked away is right. I know undocumented people that bought 首页s with minimal down then used 其 首页 as an ATM machine. They 至ok out as much as possible then sold at peak prices after not paying for many months. They are 出租 now but drive around in a custom Chevy suburban with all the bells and whistles (key less entry, flat screen, custom rims…)。一辆价值70,000美元或以上的汽车。抵押贷款经纪人也赚了不少钱。

  • 那’这是一个很好的问题,值得探讨。如果有足够的银行’客户组织,决定一项行动,他们可以使银​​行进行谈判或威胁将其存款转移给竞争对手。马克斯·凯泽(Max Keizer)谈论激进主义和交易股票,想象一下数以百万计的人在全球范围内针对特定的corp / org / country / govt。/ etc采取经济行动。

  • 让我们不要忘记“professional” 银行ing industry made 首页 purchasing and gambling as easy as picking up a Snickers Bar in the impulse aisle of the supermarket. The “professionals” set this table and “were allowed”设置此表以向公众展示这些买主中的许多人只是在做他们被告知是负责任的,成人的,保守的行为。买好房子,然后再把价格卖出去。
    大卫·拉瑞(David Lareah),巴格达鲍勃(Baghdad Bob)“economist”房地产经纪人协会的发言人在他的书中承认,他正在为自己的主人先令。
    大卫·雷亚(David Lereah)–25人应为金融危机指责– TIME
    还记得巴格达鲍勃吗?他有什么不同? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkGG5fp2kPI&feature=related

    These 首页buyers simply did what all of the “experts”告诉他们他们需要做些确保自己的家人的事’s future, “Ge a grownup, buy a 首页.”银行会得到什么’如果银行来找他们’政府代表只会让事情发生。 [嗯…键入时看起来真的很傻]。他们得到了公正的待遇,被困在糟糕的承销,违约和银行的困境之间’政府代表把困难的地方带走了。没有正义这是大规模的全球欺诈行为,是那些故意将抵押贷款支持证券误认为是“AAA”当他们被扔进垃圾桶时,应该为此行星骗局负责[*“The Sting” playing].
    我们都可以坐在那里不断地前进“Stung”或者我们可以认识到,银行在知道存在欺诈行为的情况下,放弃了长期的承销要求,从而助长了虚假市场的创建,从而助长了虚假市场的建立。贷方是所谓的“professionals”在假经济学家,律师和博士学位的支持下,他们放弃了承销贷款的历史行为是一个好主意。他们知道得更多。人就是人,他们不应该是住房或金融方面的专家。如果是WAMU,则是Countrywide [您认识那些每年都会参加玫瑰游行的好人–他们怎么会变得糟糕?],而金融,房地产和政府部门中的每一个其他家喻户晓的名字都使他们感到自己像是一个不买房的失败者,如何将其交给首次购房者先生或太太?“do the right thing”并将标签付给骗了他们的骗子。我认为他们首先希望看到锤子被放到骗子上,然后再将骗子放到猛击中。

  • @AnnS

    您知道,这是一个很好,清晰,合乎逻辑的观点。是的,对于想要购买的租房者,会降低基本价值,但是发生了—止赎,减少本金,卖空等等—会有所帮助。愤怒应该针对联邦政府向房地产市场提供的所有支持。奥巴马实际上是在花我的税金— and my son’s和(也许有一天)孙子’s tax dollars —以保持市场膨胀并超出我的能力范围。一世’m支付被锁定的特权。然后’S truly enraging. I’我是一生的自由派教徒,但我’就像布什做过的任何事一样,对此感到愤怒和失望。他的罪行违背了我的想法“America”应该意味着奥巴马在谋求我的财务生存。

    Or, can you also explain how the giant subsidies, bail-outs and proppings-up of dead 银行s is also okay?

  • 哦,我的虚荣心

    安,感谢您理智的观点。它’对于许多人认为不公平的事情很容易生气。没错,房屋将不得不在某些时候进行校正。我认为最生气的是“playing by the “rules””并看着像DG这样的人吹牛说要节省50K,而其他人则要花钱。纳税人,银行,任何人…这样的人是问题的重要组成部分,但是’是他们的业障,而不是我的。

    乌布罗西克– 您’对一件事是正确的…this country will fall apart if this kind of crap continues. Imagine a country where nobody honors 债务s or obligations and run around like 无心跳s? It would be anarchy. It’这么湿滑的斜坡…

    我只是喜欢在洛杉矶附近开车,看到Rusnak的所有纸盘都在豪华车上,而我们的失业率仍然超过10%… truly astounding…

  • “保守和传统价值观始终拥护着这些理想,如果一个人生存,借以并统治它们,那么他们可以’不会错。保守主义者了解人性的核心,并知道无论我们世界发生什么变化,人性都’改变。保守的贷方总是要求至少20%的首付,良好的信誉和可靠的保守评估。出了问题的地方正在偏离传统的和保守的贷款做法。”

    您’re kidding, right?


    共和党保守派Phil Gramm于1999年签署了《格莱姆-里奇-比利利法案》(Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act),提出了所谓的保守主义思想,要求实行20%的可靠贷款做法,严格的银行监管以及将存款银行和投资公司分开。吉姆·利奇(Jim Leach)和小托马斯·布利利(Thomas Bliley),并由民主党人比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)签名,“因为自由市场可以自我监管”。分离是通过1933年通过的,称为格拉斯-斯蒂格尔(Glass-Steagall)的立法(在罗斯福时期为自由时代)进行的。这是对保守的赫伯特·胡佛(Herbert Hoover)造成的银行业问题的回应。

    没有Gramm-Leach-Bliley,就没有次级抵押贷款,期权,Alt-As,没有系统的博弈,这些都没有被讨论。如果发行抵押的人没有能力打包,分割并出售它们作为衍生品,那么CDS行业就不可能存在。而且不要继续谈论《社区再投资法》。 Glass-Steagall工作了60多年没有出现问题。在克林顿签署这项法案后,布什时代缺乏法规执行,这就是我们今天所处的位置的原因。


    Both Dems (Clinton) and Repubs (Gramm, Leach, and Bliley) are 至 blame here, but those conservatives who are on 其 high and mighty horse should know history better before assigning blame. They should also understand human 心理学. Plenty of liberal AND conservative 首页owners gamed this system.

    BTW, the right thing would be 至 reinstitute Glass-Steagall, reregulate the 银行s, and imprison the crony 银行sters. However, Republicans in Congress are fighting this and most Dems havent pushed this either.

  • @弗雷德,你’re my hero.

  • 评论来自dog-walker



  • 逃避奴役纽带(在本例中为抵押债务奴役)的说法与文明本身一样古老。毕竟,这是美国革命的基础。作为一个现代社会,我们如何应对当前的华尔街霸主和经济暴政?是的,我们当然是在谈论抵押债务,但这是第二次美国革命的开始吗?当然,这感觉就像是在苏醒,茶会会让您相信它还远远不止于此(他们坦率地吓到我,但他们确实有道理)。战略性违约是个人的决定,但总的来说,它们是一个有力的声明。不管怎样,我们当前的体系是不可持续的,因此我们唯一可以肯定的是即将发生重大变化。

  • 小子查理曼大帝

    我们已经过了无可挽回的地步。在工程中,我们使用PID控制:比例,积分,微分。万物根据数学原理运动。带有泡沫的整体清盘和让人们称其为50年虚张声势的不利方面将是全球金融发展,例如罗马或大都会的崩溃。 (我的估计是伏都教经济学在约翰逊与约翰逊和越南战争中丧生的政变中上台,但是自从撒旦得到夏娃向亚当借贷骗子向亚当施加压力以来,这种事情就一直在发生)。

  • 我是2年前告诉过你的。能够’还记得吗?请参阅我的文章:有趣的世界(25):上帝给了您再次站起来的机会(http://activerain.com/blogsview/460409/a-funny-world-25-god-gives-you-a-chance-to-stand-up-again)
    感谢您告诉我它现在有一个更新的花式名称“strategic default.”

  • The 纾困 of the TBTF 银行s is bad enough 至 destroy public confidence, but consider this. The USA has had a recent Treasury Secretary who sold 舞弊ulent securities. A common criminal as Treasury Secretary, and he is not going 至 jail.



  • 哇DHB,


    我完全同意关于以下内容的一些回复:“short sale” nonsense.
    Another 银行 con?
    I hear this refrain constantly about 首页owners jumping through every imaginable hoop of behalf of the 银行s trying 至 卖空 the “bank’s” 首页 for them. Hell, sometimes the process of just getting permission 至 be 其 minion is a 至rture test.
    我认为夹具已经起来。人们明智了。他妈的那个新人。一世’ll sit here and string the 银行 along real nice and slow. Play 其 game, Make them think we care and are sweating bullets. Then, when the timing is right for us, we’ll leave them with 其 bag of crap 至 clean up.
    I think this is the 美国n public’s way of giving a big ole passive-agressive FU 至 the 银行sters and 至 some extent, the Govt.
    People are just fed up with seeing two sets of 规则. And trying 至 play by those defined for them and getting screwed.
    Truth is, this 战略违约 phenomena is not even that new of a trend. It was seen during the late stages of the Alt-A boom, where people were moonwalking from 其 current and exhausted ATM machine/house, and 购买 a more reasonably priced 首页 with a “NINJA”贷款。认为你是愚蠢的银行家。

  • 这是一个很棒的博客文档– 您 are getting close 至 the core of our future truth, but you are not quite there yet. It should be obvious 至 all that with $13 Trillion invested (mostly with the financial sector), our government is not going 至 let these crooks fail. Given that 银行s know that by law the FDIC will shut them down if the capital on 其 books falls below a certain level, and that foreclosure is the surest, fastest way 至 remove capital from 其 balance sheets, why would they foreclose? Bottom line: Banks will parse 首页s out at a leisurely pace that minimizes further pricing erosion.
    最后,我认为对于自由市场来说,最好的事情是让所有在水下停止付款的人。看一下市场规则:1.贪婪驱动的银行承担了高风险,将其捆绑在一起& passed it on, and drove the market 至 bubble levels. 2. The government blinked, and bailed out the financial market when they should have been punished for 其 greed and lack of judgement. 3. The 纾困 has enabled 银行s 至 hold on 至 distressed inventory, even when 首页 owner fail 至 pay for more than a year, keeping prices inflated.
    Imagine, if every 首页 owner who was underwater stopped paying, would the government be able 至 make up the loss? I doubt it. However, I predict that the next step would be that the government prints more 钱 ( for 纾困 extension), and that they find a way 至 keep 银行s open that would otherwise by law be closed by the FDIC. What the hey, why not just pass a law telling the 银行s that they do not have 至 pay back anyone who bought Mortgage Backed Securities? Mark my words: “政府不会让银行倒闭,银行也不会让价格进一步急剧下跌”.

  • 爱爱爱这里的态度!!!你猜怎么了…I’m such an “idiot” I didn’今年我要偿还5个月的抵押贷款,现在我已经进行了修改,因此我可以再至少保留6个月而不偿还,可能还需要更长的几个月才能偿还。一世’我从短期和长期两个角度来考虑我的财务计划。唯一的事情“idiotic” I did during *this* time owning a 首页 (unlike most of you, I’已在So中拥有3个。超过16年的Cal)…..the only thing 白痴ic I did, was put 20% DOWN! I should have GAMED THE SYSTEM when I had ample opportunity….damnit! Now, I’只需解决第二次违约(6个月内无需付款)…或现在),并且无需还清CC债务(为什么您的信用等级为500时还需要付款?)。老实说,您是否认为我会在这种环境下生存2次?当sh1t击中粉丝时,我也支持第二修正案,所以不要’尝试闯入我的房子,这将是你的最后一次。把它吃掉,你会挑剔!

  • @ 小子查理曼大帝,你可以youtube“肯尼迪和秘密社团”听他关于他们的演讲。我同意它始于肯尼迪国际机场(JFK),但您必须遵循这笔资金。肯尼迪印刷有REAL银支持的REAL美元,任何反对中央银行的行长都被杀或企图被杀。
    从上到下都是欺诈,但不是所有人“gamed the system”, yet anyone that bought in the last few years and decides 至 default gets abused here in these comments. Instead of blaming the people who masterminded this, you blame the victims (not all 首页 buyers were victims, I’我在So Cal上看到了一些,所以他们走了数十万,他们没有’不在乎保持“home”). 您’再无知,这个国家将不会因有机无知或全知的人而改变。不断责怪你的同胞,要么接受“我们保守主义者知道一切,并且在我们的道德运动中是正确的” or the “我们自由主义者必须从富人手中夺走,与不当之人分享 ”并以同样的方式投票。继续投票相同的两个政党!!!

  • 格雷格在洛杉矶



    开玩笑,我很高兴您提出GLB法案,我去了维基百科,发现许多有趣的事情,例如该交易由罗伯特·鲁宾(Robert Rubin)促成,罗伯特·鲁宾(Robert Rubin)后来成为花旗集团(Citi Group)的首席执行官。

    从政治上讲,这种腐败行为是由三名自由党共和党人发起的,由共和党主持。财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾(Robert Rubin)通过了两党共和党343-86、138-69民主党,并由民主党人克林顿(Bill Clinton)签署成为法律。
    如果不是'一个令人垂涎的例子"Bi-partisanship" 我不't know what is. A pox on both 其 houses.

    The bail-outs under Bush showed the same type of rancid bipartisanship, thank god that all the new bail-outs under Obama are 100% liberal Democrat. 那 shows me that the Republicans may be starting 至 regain 其 senses and conservativism, lets hope that they are.

  • HAHA! Look at these 白痴s in San Diego Trying 至 flip 其 house for an 885,000 profit in only 18 months!! They bought for $900 in late June 2007 and are listing it now for $1,775,000!!!! Amazing what a little Granite can do!!!!



  • 让我说清楚。政府现在鼓励人们利用自己的财产进入一个资产高达75万美元,跌幅不到2%的房产(包括税收抵免和FHA),以期挽回泡沫。然后,如果没有 ’不会发生的,不用担心,只需免费住18个月的房租,然后在搬家之前存入抵押贷款即可。我们的处境难道吗?大概吧。那些想要在这样的市场上进行投资的人一定要疯了。他们将’除非害怕接下来的事情,否则不要给这些机会。



  • 人类是动物界的一部分,将尽一切努力生存。您在这里清楚地看到了这种情绪。如果我们看到其他人通过作弊取得了成功,那么我们决定’s “smart”作弊,我们就忘了所谓的个人道德。人类唯一的道德准则是不惜一切代价生存,而资本主义制度(财富建设和创新的伟大制度)就此付出了代价。’的核心,认为贪婪是好的。只有法治才能阻止我们相互斗争’喉咙。但是,正如我们在稀土泡沫和后果中看到的那样,它很贪婪(即“survival”),而不是决定一天的道德准则。

  • 我认为这个国家的士气开始重新设定。它’目前尚不言而喻,但是在萧条时期,人们倾向于忍受越来越不道德的行为。大家’要么疯狂要么拼命地做事都是错的。房屋泡沫肯定会进一步崩溃,但我认为还有其他事情会从木工中冒出来,并使我们所有人感到惊讶。我不会’看到美元今年下跌,因为储备金在某些危机中尚未蔓延到大多数人,这并不奇怪’s radar.

  • @格雷格
    我明白你的意思。福克斯并不保守–只是专业人士的应用专家‘investment 银行ing’ crew; which is a psuedonym for corrupt destroyers of 美国n wealth. The never did invest–只寻找有生产力的公司,并找出窃取财富的方法。如果选择两家稳健的公司,将它们都欠下无法解决的债务,解雇合并后公司的一半员工,并将掠夺的养老金计划倾销给政府投资,则请停止投资。太多的工作使他们的党派清除了所有障碍,因此他们可以随意掠夺整个国家。整个‘监管是问题’争论只是使他们能够通过所有这些。阳光下没有新事物–欢迎来到新的黑暗时代。

  • 格雷格在洛杉矶

    可以读一读的自由主义者可以向我解释为什么Barney Frank再给Fannie和Freddie 4,000亿美元是一件好事。
    Could someone please explain 至 me why having the government controll the mortgage lending industry, the 美国n auto industry, the health care industry, and insuring the profitability of major 银行s is a good thing ?
    Would one of the 自由主义者 here please explain this 至 me? I guess I just don't understand.

  • I’米与Swiller。我从没打算玩这个系统,但是当我以近40万美元的价格买下房子时,银行发誓永远都不会倒下..当它在2年内损失25万美元时,我不再关心道德或业障。正如好医生多次指出的那样’很快就会回来。政府决定使用纳税人的钱来支持银行并不是我的错。我唯一要说的是,不是每个以泡沫价格买入而没有降价的人都没有省钱的能力。如果我保持稳定的支出模式,’即使在租车后,仍然可以每年节省$ 30k。我们中的一些人刚从大学毕业后就开始了第一份高薪工作,并且知道在该州价格超过40万美元时,要花6-8年的时间才能节省20%的首付。同时,所有银行家都在说,价格甚至会再次翻番,甚至还不至于存钱。

    I may have been an 白痴 至 buy that line of bs from the 银行 and sign onto a loa,. 但I’d be an even bigger 白痴 if I paid it back at 其 insane bubble price. With the 钱 I save I’能够支付我两个孩子的大学学费,并为我的退休生活提供一部分资金。抱歉,我的财务道德义务先于我的家人,再到银行。我承认我’我下车很容易,但是我没有’为了防止银行在90天后将我踢出门,我采取了一切措施,从法律上讲,我’我有责任照顾财产直到他们这样做。如果让您的判断力更好,我一年前有50k的可用信用卡余额,现在’m降至$ 3000(gogo发现卡)。我也赢了’至少要融资7年。

  • 格雷格
    您的问题的答案是民主党不是自由党。他们是社团主义者。将这个国家的政治与其他西方文明进行比较 …我们是最保守的100倍。这里几乎没有自由主义者。看卫生保健…给保险业的又一份大包装礼物赢得了’t do a lick of good for most 美国n Families.

  • 琳达·海恩斯(Linda Haynes)

    All this talk really demonstrates how good a time it is 至 buy a 首页 if you do not already own one or are looking 至 invest.


发表回覆 2009年夏末

名称 (*)