的worst may still be ahead for housing – 3 million 首页s foreclosed on in the last three years with another 5 至 7 million 止赎 in the pipeline. One third of 首页owners believe they are underwater.
Ignoring a problem might bring temporary relief but ultimately a day of reckoning must occur. 的underlying problems with housing have been swept under the rug for many years like dust trying 至 be ignored. Yet the dust is still there and it will ultimately need 至 be cleaned up. 的housing market is simply in a 暂时的平静 还有更多的麻烦。以例如 汉普程序 旨在帮助3-4百万房主。截至2011年第一季度，仅修改了634,000笔贷款。为什么该程序如此严重失败？简单地说，该程序试图解决本质上是暂时的问题，但现实是足彩预测倒塌比暂时的问题更具系统性。这是我们银行系统中嵌入的巨大泡沫。在这里，透视很重要。在过去的三年中，大约有300万笔贷款被取消抵押品赎回权。然而，行业中的一些人预计到2012年底还会有5到700万个足彩预测被赎回。如果我们认为足彩预测丧失抵押品赎回权是足彩预测倒闭的最终标志，那么足彩预测的恶化可能还会继续。
首页 prices continue 至 move lower and are now bouncing in a short-term trough. For some parts of the country 首页 prices are more justified with local area incomes but other markets like in California remain 顽固地在泡沫控股模式. I think the 心理学 in bubble states keeps prices inflated even longer because people want 至 believe that somehow the rules of economics do not apply 至 their own area. Of course, 首页 prices have fallen hard in many 曾经不可动摇的市场 然而，许多人仍然愿意打赌，即使经济疲软，事情也会以某种方式奇迹般地扭转。更令人惊讶的是，在州政府破产和联邦政府破产的情况下，税收将不会增加。税收上升只是时间问题，在像加利福尼亚这样的州，财产得到了优惠待遇，我怀疑这很快就会出现。除了该州的财产外，其他所有东西的税收似乎都在飙升。不管政治上的钱快用光了，都需要做出艰难的选择。那么，在考虑到这种经济气候的情况下，我们如何设想房地产价格的上涨呢？
Over 2 million loans are currently in the foreclosure process. To envision 5 million more 止赎 in the next two years isn’t hard 至 imagine since nearly half of those 首页s are already in the process and only waiting 至 be finalized. It should be obvious 至 most of you that the 银行业 纾困s were merely programs 至 protect financial institutions from facing reality. 那 was it. It was one 巨型面包和马戏团奇观 愚弄公众以为以某种方式进行这些纾困对于保持足彩预测价值不断膨胀是有必要的（相反，它们使银行家的钱夹膨胀了）。现在，政府正在讨论将REO出租作为某种解决方案。我们已经回到第一个问题，除了我们已经花了大部分钱来支撑造成这场混乱的金融机构。人们对这个体系失去了信心，尤其是随着债务上限的持续疯狂。显然，向银行发放数万亿美元没有问题，因此它们不必执行正常的会计程序，但是在支付账单时，我们现在必须收紧财政腰带吗？我们现在生活在多么奇怪的宇宙中。
It would seem that 首页owners have a better grasp on reality than those on Wall Street. Only half of 首页owners actually believe that they have equity in their 首页:
“（DS新闻) Less than half of 首页owners – 49 percent – currently believe their 首页 is worth more than the amount they still owe on their mortgage.
…One-third of 首页owners believe they are underwater with their mortgage, and 18 percent of respondents said they weren’t sure.”
我觉得这很有趣，因为它为当前房主的心理提供了有用的信息。如果您认为自己在水下，那么我不太可能列出要出售的足彩预测，除非您不得不拼命出售并且有现金和摆脱财产的欲望。我看到这种情况发生在例如工作变动或离婚的情况下。但是，现在这种现实表明，数据与住房价值的观念相吻合。人们现在可以更准确地评估自己的财产。这也可能是该市场缺乏向上买进的解释。我感到惊讶的是，有18％的受访者根本不知道自己是否拥有财产权益。也许这群人根本不在乎？考虑一下这另一个挥之不去的症状 足彩预测泡沫狂热。 With a 20 percent down standard you can rest assured that most people would know if they had equity in their 首页.
Here is the drawn 至 scale pipeline of future 止赎. We have roughly 6 million 抵押贷款 in some state of distress or foreclosure. As you can see from the chart above the REO category is a tiny fraction of the other problem properties gearing up 至 hit the market. Again, this relates 至 our argument that ignoring problems does not solve them. 的banks felt that after 废话五年以某种方式, another bubble would hit and 首页 值s would be back on their way up. Well guess what? 那 has not materialized because incomes are falling or stagnant! Watch the mainstream press and you will never hear a figure given for the median household income. Even on those “professional” housing shows you get a 首页 值 but you never get the breakdown of household income even though this is by far the most important factor in purchasing a 首页. Of course they 不要’t want 至 open up that can of worms because they want everyone 至 continue spending mindlessly and keeping the gig going especially in housing.
Did You Enjoy 的Post? 订阅 至 泡泡博士’s Blog 至 get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information